“MAGIC MOMENTS”:The Politics of Social Protection
Gabriele KoehlerDevelopment economist
Visiting Fellow, Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team, IDS Sussex
EC Social Protection Training Course Asia and Pacific Region
Bangkok 12-15 June 2012
Day 3 session 1
The politics of social protection ”
QUICK QUIZI.) Magic moments – policy momentsII.) Policy pushes globally and regionally – policy diffusionIII.) The politics of social protection at the country levelIV.) ExerciseV.) Quick summary
QUICK QUIZWHAT IS “GOOD” SOCIAL PROTECTION?
……
QUICK QUIZWHAT IS “GOOD” SOCIAL PROTECTION?
Rights based - Universal right/universal coverage Citizenship- or residents-based
Accompanied by supply side measuresAccompanied by decent work policy & action
Addresses crises, chronic poverty, vulnerabilities Well-targeted and publicised entitlements for socially excluded groups
Special effort to reach disadvantaged households/communities
Systemic – uniting fragmented systems
Sustainable, predictable, meaningful benefit levels Affordable and long-term sustainable
Tax financed
Empowerment: space to civil society and public action
ManageableAdvanced IT
Monitoring & evaluation systems
I.) “Magic moments” – policy moments
• Shift in domestic political dynamics – such as – Change of government– Political transitions– Change in economic lead paradigm– Burning issues– New fiscal resources – Major financial or economic crisis – Natural disaster– End of an armed conflict
Political will
Political will
II.)
Policy
pushes
globally and regionally
Changing international power dynamics• Economic dynamism in the South leading to a new international
economic geography• Emergence of the G-20 and the BRICs
“Globalisation”• new technologies changing production and trade patterns • IT changing information culture
More transformative international development paradigms• Keynesianism and a concern for employment, decent work and social
protection • focus on social inclusion • multidimensional poverty concepts• awareness of child poverty in developed and developing countries• A drive for equity• the emerging trend for a rights based approach – universalist – transformative
agenda
MDGs and social protection
Accelerated push for social protection & the global social floor since 2008 global crisis UN system together with the IFIs (2009 CEB decision) 2010 high level conference on the MDGs 2011 UN coalition on SP 2012 International Labour Conference and the social floor Also reemerging discussion on role of the state
EU and social protection
Accelerated push for social protection in EU discussions– Treaty of Rome (1958) – Update: Treaty of Lisbon (2009)– Europe 2020 (2010)
Diffusion into EU development cooperation policies European Development Report 2010 PovNet papers on social protection and decent work and EC-UN “show
and tell” meetings 2012 Communication: consultation process (Jan-March 2012) and
document (at Council by October)
G20 2011. Seoul development consensus1) infrastructure, 2) private investment and job creation, 3) human resource development, 4) trade, 5) financial inclusion, 6) growth with resilience, 7) food security, 8) domestic resource mobilization,9) knowledge sharing
ESCAP and social protection
Subregional processes
ASEAN Socio-cultural community blueprint pillars
• Human development• Social welfare and protection• Social justice and rights• Environmental sustainability• An ASEAN identity• Narrowing the development gap
The BRICS and social protection:
Source: http://www.google.com/imgres?q=BRICS+map&hl=en&client=safari&sa=X&rls=en&biw=1280&bih=611&tbm=isch&prmd=imvns&tbnid=RqNceHxgRU8i9M:&imgrefurl=
III. The politics of social protection
at the country level
Social protection in action
Social protection policy
Policy politics example 1: Social protection pensions, poverty transfers, mainstreaming
(Hickey)
• The political context• The key ‘drivers of change’• The policy spaces within• The forms of poverty data and analysis used in relation to the
interventions • Shifting ideologies and discourses of development mobilised
behind interventions for the poorest • The politics of their design and implementation modalities • The extent to which they help construct ‘social contracts’
between state and citizenry.
Policy politics example 2: Creating a welfare state
(Sandbrook et al)
Causal factors• Structural – state formation• Configurational – constellation of classes, political
parties and civil society• Conjunctural – coalescing of organised actors
Policy politics example 3: Conditional cash transfer: Bolsa familia
(IPC)
• The political context• Affordability• Design elements (size of the grant; targeting
features) • Electoral effects
Policy politics example 4:child grant
(Escap/Koehler)
– Recognising a policy moment– Seizing it– Building on existing institutional history– Creating the argument– Creating coalitions– Mobilising financial resources – Supporting government and integrating with other
policies
Policy politics example 5: Introducing pension/health reform
(Weyland) • improvements in communication and trans
portation• inspiration from foreign models and principles• decision-makers participate in transnational
networks • rule making at the international level• international organisations seek to “persuade,
coax, push, or force” governments to adopt policy ideas
Exercise: Adopting a national social protection system
Background:• Parliamentary consultation on institutionalising a national social protection system• Ministry of Welfare proposal to introduce a NSPS• Ministry of Labour opposed• Ministry of Finance opposed• Powerful NGO proposing immediate introduction• Government under strong pressure for policies to address poverty and vulnerability and
enhance governance and efficiency • Opposition comprised of technocrats which see risks of populism, dependency issues,
technical design shortcomings, affordability
Task: Split into four groups, choose Indonesia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Vietnam examples1. Revisit your brief, challenges and obstacles listed, and deepen them with examples of policy2. List out potential strategic alliances or analytical references 3. Prepare arguments Ministry of Welfare could present
15 minutesPlenary: list out your arguments (3 minutes per country) 22
India: RSBY, NREGA
Thailand: UC scheme, minimum pension scheme (500 THB)
Cambodia: NSPS with clear reference to the SPF … including HEFs, CBHIs, Food distribution, PWPs,…
Lao: extension of SHP for all
Vietnam: 10 years Social security strategy
Indonesia: Jamkesmas, Jampersal, PKH, Rice for the poor, PNPM
China: minimum living standard guarantee program; new rural corporative medical care (NRCMC); health insurance for urban uninsured residents (HIUR); rural old-age pension
Philippines: universal health reform
Pathways to social protection
Nepal: broad range
Bangladesh: Strategy…
Sri Lanka: …
Tajikistan :…
IndonesiaInter-vention
Challenges add-ressed
Objective Indicators of progress/success
Coverage/cost/index
Obstacles Shortcomings
EC
Nat prog for comm empowerment
large pop 72 mill poorRural & urban disavantaged. ISAccelerate pov alleviation, liveilhoods & participation
Nationwide. 65000 villages
50000 Local mentors needed. Instit cap. Disparities large/marg comm’s/gender
Reduce pov 8/10%Access to servicesIncrease part of poor. Local cap bldg
Faciliation.Attrition of good staff.Work overload.Cultural. Coord difficult..MIS sustainability.Reg disparities
Y
NepalInter-vention
Challenges add-ressed
Objective Indicators of progress/success
Coverage/cost/index
Obstacles
Shortcomings
EC
Many schemes
Pov., ConflictEnvironment,Social exclusion,Lowest HDI
Gap between commitment/implementation
NationalCoverage3.5% GDP variesApproach needs to vary.P.c.benefits low
Weak gov.Supply side weak.Confusion entitlement
Prod assets missing
Y
TajikistanInter-vention
Challenges add-ressed
Objective Indicators of progress/success
Coverage/cost/index
Obstacles Shortcomings EC
Poor qual of services;low pension/unemploymen;low income,
Pc income 1000$.Vulnerabitlies n.a.Tangible results
Part of Sov Union collapse.rethink role of state
Poor targeting/improving
Resources lacking
y
VietnamInter-vention
Challenges add-ressed
Objective Indicators of progress/success
Coverage/cost/index
Obstacles Shortcomings EC
Cash transfers to poor families w school children
From pov red for spec groups to universal. Large programme.Compensate for user feesSocial cohesion
Qual of servic es. Health insurance 60% cov.Formal insured; not informal
Coverage & distribution of benefits; education outcomes. Graduation
Social insurance for informal sectorHousehold based
cap
Poverty line issue. Fiscal space. Sustain. dependency
Non conditional
Y
Recognise & seizing SP “magic moments” Recognise drivers of change• Analyse and address group interests • Mobilise beneficiaries, stakeholders, overcome political resistance• Build strategic alliances for national consensus towards a social
compact
Be ready for expansion, systematisation and universalisation• Undertake analytical and evidence research• Prepare sound programme/policy incl bencmarch, M&E • Examine fiscal space and address economic and tax performance• Create shifts in “philosophies”, principles• Use international debates/norms/”fashions
Look at obstacles• Address affordability of social protection as a political issue
(“political will”)• Address governance issues• Deal with populist pressures
Resources – reading listBob Deacon, 2009, Middle Class Buy-in: Is it too Late? Global Social Policy, Volume 9 (1): 18
SAGE – Apr 1, 2009 Sam Hickey, 2006 , The Politics of What Works in Reducing Chronic Poverty. A synthesis report
for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands . Institute of Development Policy and Management, School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UNITED KINGDOM. CPRC Working Paper 91. http://www.chronicpoverty.org/uploads/publication_files/WP91_Hickey.pdf
International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC), 2o12, Bolsa Familia: A Summary of Its Impacts. One Pager No 137. April 2012
Gabriele Koehler, 2011, The challenges of Delivering as One: Overcoming fragmentation and moving towards policy coherence. ILO Working Paper No. 100. http://www.ilo.org/integration/resources/papers/WCMS_153043/lang--en/index.htm -
Richard Sandbrook, Marc Edelman, Patrick Heller, Judith Teichman, 2007. Social democracy in the global periphery: origins, challenges, prospects. Cambridge university Press
Kurt Weyland, 2007. Bounded Rationality and Policy Diffusion. Princeton University Press