Download - Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave III
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave III
Prepared for:Maine Today Media
October 2010
Focus Groups Surveys Public Opinion Polling
120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101
Telephone: 207-772-4011 • Fax: 207-772-7027
www.criticalinsights.com
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Introduction
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Method & Approach
• A random, statewide poll of 605 registered likely voters across Maine was conducted on October 10th and 11th as a follow up to earlier measurements conducted for Maine Today Media in mid- and late-September, respectively.
• As with prior waves of measurement, the survey instrument was developed by Critical Insights, in collaboration with Maine Today Media.
• Live interviews were conducted by telephone using a computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system.
• In order to qualify for inclusion in the survey, respondents had to:– Be a registered voter in the State of Maine;– Indicate that they voted in the most recent Presidential election in November 2008; and– Claim they were likely to vote in the upcoming election on November 2nd.
• Subsequent analysis and compilation of data was also prepared by Critical Insights.– Results presented in this report are based on statistically weighted data to reflect the gender, age, and
geographic distribution of Maine voters.– A complete profile of survey respondents may be found at the conclusion of this document.
Sample Size Data Collection Period
Margin of ErrorLength of Interview90% 95%
605 October 10th and 11th, 2010 ±3.4 ±4.0 8 minutes
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
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Key Results
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Voter Perspectives onPublic Assistance Programs in Maine
• In each wave of measurement of this poll for Maine Today Media, rotating items of interest relevant to the upcoming election were included.
• While Wave II of measurement focused on issues surrounding education and the gubernatorial election, the current poll focused on voters’ perspectives surrounding public assistance programs in Maine, particularly attitudes and beliefs about these programs.
• Prior to being presented with any questions in this area, all respondents were provided with the following introductory material:
Next, I’m going to ask you several questions about government assistance programs in Maine.
Sometimes referred to as “welfare programs,” these programs are designed to promote or assure the basic well-being of those documented to be in need. These
efforts aim to improve a person or family’s financial status and employment situation, as well as provide access to basic healthcare needs.
Depending on the question, sometimes I’ll refer to these programs as “welfare” or as “government assistance.”
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Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Voter Perspectives onManagement of Public Assistance Programs
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “poor” and 5 means “excellent,” how well do you believe the State of Maine is currently managing its programs designed to provide assistance to the needy?
22 21
36
13
4 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
1--> Poor 2 3 4 5--> Excellent Don't know
Percent
A majority of voters polled give Maine an average or lesser grade for its management of public assistance programs.
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Voter Perspectives onManagement of Public Assistance Programs, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate
10
24 21
25
50
26
61
24
45
4 3 6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LePage Mitchell Cutler
Net Favorable Average Net Unfavorable Don't know
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “poor” and 5 means “excellent,” how well do you believe the State of Maine is currently managing its programs designed to provide assistance to the needy?
A majority of LePage supporters give Maine an unfavorable rating for management of public assistance programs.
Close to half of Cutler supporters responded similarly, while only one-quarter of Mitchell supporters gave Maine an unfavorable rating.
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Voter Perspectives onPublic Assistance Programs in Maine
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with…
“Poor people in Maine have become too dependent on government assistance programs.”
812
2017
39
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
1--> Completelydisagree
2 3 4 5--> Completelyagree
Don't know
Percent
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate
74
4338
16
24 33
10
29 25
1 3 3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LePage Mitchell Cutler
Net Agree Neutral Net Disagree Don't know
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with…
“Poor people in Maine have become too dependent on government assistance programs.”
A disproportionate bloc of LePage supporters agree that poor people in Maine have become too dependent on these programs.
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Voter Perspectives onPublic Assistance Programs in Maine
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with…
“The State of Maine has a responsibility to provide assistance for food and housing to people in need.”
69
27
20
35
10
20
40
60
80
100
1--> Completelydisagree
2 3 4 5--> Completelyagree
Don't know
Percent
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate
36
7466
35
18
22
28
711
1 1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LePage Mitchell Cutler
Net Agree Neutral Net Disagree Don't know
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with…
“The State of Maine has a responsibility to provide assistance for food and housing to people in need.”
While strong majorities of those supporting both Mitchell and Cutler agree that Maine has a social responsibility to care for those in need, significantly fewer LePage supporters agree.
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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance:“Gaming the System”
76% or more6%
26-50%31%
25% or less32%
Don't know16%
51-75%15%
A phrase sometimes heard is that some people are “gaming the welfare system.” If you had to guess, approximately what percentage of people currently receiving welfare assistance in Maine are “gaming the system”?
A majority of voters believe that no more than half of those receiving public assistance are “gaming the system.”
A smaller bloc of voters (21%) believe that more than half of recipients are taking advantage of the system.
The remaining 16% of voters don’t know or declined to answer.
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Portland • Mainewww.criticalinsights.com
Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance: “Gaming the System,”by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate
1118 13
22
46
40
34
27
28
22
9
15
411
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LePage Mitchell Cutler
76% ore more
51-75%
26-50%
25% or less
Don't know
A phrase sometimes heard is that some people are “gaming the welfare system.” If you had to guess, approximately what percentage of people currently receiving welfare assistance in Maine are “gaming the system”?
When asked to estimate the number of people “gaming the system” in Maine, LePage supporters tend to be more pessimistic than are supporters of either Cutler or Mitchell.
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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance
Does the state of Maine do enough to encourage and help those receiving government assistance to find work?
Don't know
17%Yes
20%
No
63%
Do you believe that Maine should institute a lifetime cap on the amount of state aid any recipient may receive?
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October 2010 120 Exchange Street
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Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance,by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate
60
3038
33
59 47
7 11 16
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LePage Mitchell Cutler
Yes No Don't know
Does the state of Maine do enough to encourage and help those receiving government assistance to find work?
1625 24
73 55 59
1121 18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
LePage Mitchell Cutler
Yes No Don't know
Do you believe that Maine should institute a lifetime cap on the amount of state aid any recipient may receive?
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Perception of Most Effective Manager of Maine’s Public Assistance Programs
Which of the current candidates for Governor do you believe would be most effective at managing the state’s welfare programs?
23
4
6
13
22
32
0 20 40 60 80 100
Don't know
None/All the same
Other *
Eliot Cutler
Libby Mitchell
Paul LePage
Percent
* Includes aggregated totals for Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, respectively.
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Respondent Profile: Wave III
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Respondent Gender and Age
Male47%
Female53%
Could you tell me how old you are? %
18 to 44 years old 42%
45 to 64 years old 41
65 years old or over 17
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Family Status
Do you have any children, age 18 or younger, living with you at home?
What is your current marital status? %
Married 75%
Single 12
Divorced 5
Widowed 4
Living as part of a couple 2
Don’t know/Refused 2
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SES: Level of Education & Income
What is the highest grade or year of regular school or college that you have completed? %
High school or less 26%
Post high school, technical 2
Some college 22
College degree 34
Some graduate school 2
Graduate school degree 13
Other 2
And which one of the following broad groups includes your entire household’s approximate total yearly income before taxes? %
Less than $25,000 8%
$25,000 to just under $50,000 17
$50,000 to just under $75,000 17
$75,000 to just under $100,000 14
$100,000 or more 11
No answer/Refused to specify 33
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Political Party and Ideology
In what political party are you registered to vote? %
Democratic 34%
Republican 33
Unenrolled/Independent 25
Green Ind. or other party 2
Don’t know/Refused 5
Thinking about your political leanings, would you say you are… %
Very conservative 16%
Somewhat conservative 26
Moderate 30
Somewhat liberal 17
Very liberal 6
Don’t know/Refused 5