![Page 1: Making better reinsurance decisions… Measuring seismic risk in Turkey: Latest modelling techniques Karl Jones June 3, 2003 ©Copyright 2003 Willis Limited](https://reader030.vdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032803/56649e305503460f94b20d77/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Making better reinsurance decisions…
Measuring seismic risk in Turkey: Latest modelling techniques
Karl Jones
June 3, 2003
©Copyright 2003 Willis Limited all rights reserved.
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
The Turkish Catastrophe Management System (TCMS)
• Developed under the Turkish Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Programme (TEFER)
• Produced earthquake and flood risk modeling for the whole of Turkey at ilçe (district) resolution
• Implemented as Turkish Catastrophe Management System (TCMS)
icMap Earthquake generator
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
52 staff from 14 organisations, including the leading experts on Turkish earthquake risk
• Prof. Aydinoglu, Prof. Erdik & co. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University
• Prof. Barka and Prof. Ansal, Istanbul Technical University
• Prof. Gülkan and Asst. Prof. Selçuk, Middle Eastern Technical University
• General Directorate of Disaster Affairs
• State Institute of Statistics
• Dr Julian Bommer & co., Imperial College
• Dr Spence & co., Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd
• Dr Acar, Zemcka Ltd
• Assoc. Prof. Ulusay, Hacettepe University
• Imagins-TED, Istanbul
• Oracle Corporation Limited
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Transparent design process subject to academic and peer review
• Design workshop
• Technical design documents and review
• Research and data collection
• Model and systems development
• Testing and review
• Technical report and model implementation
• Expert review
• Academic paper for Journal of Seismology - peer reviewed
Seismic source zone map
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Synthetic earthquake catalogue
Over 1,000 earthquake events with magnitude > 5.5
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
TCMS uses the latest earthquake modelling developments
• Spectral displacement (HAZUS)
• Non-linear soil amplification
• Explicit use of earthquake duration
• Projected plane earthquake triggers
• 14 Turkish residential building types with fragility curves based on Turkish data
Source: CAR
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Projected plane earthquake triggers
Fault rupture plane
Dip angle
Surface rupture
Strike angle
N
Plan viewUsing projected
plane sourcePoint source Line source
Projected plane source
Ground surface
Hypocentre (focus)
Epicentre
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
For 14 residential building types in 900 geocodes, a unique spectral displacement value was calculated
Demand Curve v Capacity Curve for building type A
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60
Spectral Displacement Sd (metres)
Sp
ec
tra
l A
cc
ele
rati
on
Sa
(g
)
Demand Curve
Capacity Curve
ICMPTM
Hazard database
magnitude, Mduration, D
distance, d
geocode, x
Earthquake generator
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Source: CAR
FRAGILITY CURVES, Low-rise RC Poor/ TC1LP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Spectral Displacement /m
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Complete
Percentage ofreconstructioncost
Fragility curves based on Turkish data:Low-rise RC poor seismic design
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Fragility curves based on Turkish data: Mid-rise RC buildings
TC1MP Poor seismic design
TC1MG Good seismic design
TC1MRF Retrofitted
Source: CAR
Fragility curves: mid-rise RC buildings, TC1M
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Sd (m)%
Reb
uild
ing
cost
TC1MP
TC1MG
TC1MRF
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Buildings database - the ‘portfolio’
• Model that represents Turkish building stock
• Analysis at district and sub-district
• State Institute of Statistics
• Buildings data, census data
• Linked to 14 building types in model
“Earthquakes don’t kill people, buildings do”
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Turkey Catastrophe Management System (TCMS)
• A market-leading risk assessment system for Turkey
• Coverage: countrywide, modelled at district level
• Assessing the effect of earthquakes for entire country
User-defined hypothetical earthquake scenario generated using icMapTM earthquake generator
Re-runs of historical events
Event based probabilistic loss estimation using the synthetic earthquake catalogue
• Use of Graphical User Interface (GUI) for visualisation
• Mapping functionality
• Embedded with ICMPTM- Willis’ proprietary loss calculation engine
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Input - Hazard intensities
Earthquake generator
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Input - Portfolio data
Data contains:
•Geocode
•Policy count
•Sum insured
•Building type
Mapping portfolio data using icMapTM
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Output - Loss by geocode
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Output - Loss exceedance curve
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Major earthquake events in the Sea of Marmara region since 1500 according to Parsons et al. (2000)
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Magnitudes of major historical earthquakesin the Sea of Marmara
Parsons et al. (2000)Mw Mw Ms
1509 September 10 7.6 7.2 7.2
1556 May 10 6.5-7.0 7.2
1719 May 25 7.6 7.4 7.4
1737 March 6 - 7.0
1754 September 2 7.0 6.8 6.8
1766 May 22 7.2 7.0 7.1
1766 August 5 7.6 7.3 7.4
1850 April 19 6.0-7.0 - 6.1*
1855 February 28 7.0-7.5 7.0 7.1
1855 April 11 6.5-7.0 - 6.3
1857 September 17 6.5-7.0 - 5.4*
1863 November 6 6.4-7.0 - 4.9*
1877 October 13 6.0-7.0 - 5.5*
1894 July 10 7.0 7.2 7.3
Ambraseys & Jackson (2000)Earthquake
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Magnitudes of major historical earthquakesin the Sea of Marmara
Parsons et al. (2000)Mw Mw Ms
1509 September 10 7.6 7.2 7.2
1556 May 10 6.5-7.0 7.2
1719 May 25 7.6 7.4 7.4
1737 March 6 - 7.0
1754 September 2 7.0 6.8 6.8
1766 May 22 7.2 7.0 7.1
1766 August 5 7.6 7.3 7.4
1850 April 19 6.0-7.0 - 6.1*
1855 February 28 7.0-7.5 7.0 7.1
1855 April 11 6.5-7.0 - 6.3
1857 September 17 6.5-7.0 - 5.4*
1863 November 6 6.4-7.0 - 4.9*
1877 October 13 6.0-7.0 - 5.5*
1894 July 10 7.0 7.2 7.3
Ambraseys & Jackson (2000)Earthquake
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Making better reinsurance decisions…
Reduced risk in Marmara sea?