Transcript
Page 1: Marine Regime Shifts Causes and Consequences

Marine  Regime  ShiftsDrivers  and  Impacts  on  Ecosystem  Services  

!!

Rocha,  J.C;  Yletyinen,  J;  Biggs,  R;  Blenckner,  T  &  G.  Peterson

Page 2: Marine Regime Shifts Causes and Consequences

The Anthropocene

Social challenge: Understand patters of causes and consequences of regime shifts !

How common they are? Where are they likely to occur? Who will be most affected? What can we do to avoid them? What possible interactions or cascading effects?

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Blenckner T, Niiranen S (2013) Biodiversity - Marine Food-Web Structure, Stability, and Regime Shifts. In: Climate Vulnerability, Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources (ed. Pielke R), Elsevier, 1570 pp

Science challenge: understand phenomena where experimentation is rarely an option, data availability is poor, and time for action a constraint

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to assess co-occurrence patterns of the drivers and ecosystem services consequences that

can inform better managerial practices

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Regime Shifts DataBase

Established or proposed feedback mechanisms exist that maintain the different regimes = hysteresis !The shift substantially affect the set of ecosystem services provided by a social-ecological system

!The shift persists on time scale that impacts on people and society

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Mechanism

Exis

tenc

e

Well established

Speculative

Contested

Contested

Speculative

Well established

Mangroves collapse!Thermohaline circulationcollapse

Fisheries collapse!Marine Eutrophication!Marine food webs

Arctic sea ice Salt marshes to flat tidal

Greenland Ice Sheet collapseWest Antarctica Ice Sheet

Bivalves collapse!Coral transitions!Hypoxia!Kelps transitions!Sea grass transitions

Evidence type! Models Paleo observation Contemporary observation Experiments Other!Reversibility! Irreversible Hysteretic Reversible Unknown

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Methods

•Tripartite network and one-mode projections: 13 Regime shifts + 54 Drivers + 26 Ecosystem Services

•104 random bipartite graphs to explore significance of couplings: mean degree, co-occurrence & clustering coefficient statistics on one-mode projections.

Regime shiftsDrivers

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Drivers Network Co−occurrence Index

s−squared

Den

sity

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

02

46

8

Regime Shifts Network Co−occurrence Index

s−squared

Den

sity

16 20 240.

00.

10.

20.

30.

4

Average Degree in simulated Drivers Networks

Mean Degree

Den

sity

23 24 25 26 27

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Average Degree in simulated Regime Shifts Networks

Mean Degree

Den

sity

9 10 11 12 13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Ecosystem Services Network Co−occurrence Index

s−squared

Den

sity

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01

23

4

Regime Shifts Network Co−occurrence Index

s−squared

Den

sity

22 24 26

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Average Degree in simulated Ecosystem Services Networks

Mean Degree

Den

sity

12 16 20 24

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Average Degree in simulated Regime Shifts Networks

Mean Degree

Den

sity

10 14 18

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

Page 10: Marine Regime Shifts Causes and Consequences

Agriculture

Atmospheric CO2

Deforestation

Demand

Erosion

Fishing

Floods Global warming

Human population

Nutrients inputs

Sea level riseSea surface temperature

Sewage

TemperatureUpwellings

Urbanization

Arctic sea ice

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Fisheries collapse

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves collapse

Marine eutrophication

Marine foodwebs

Salt marshes

Sea grassThermohaline circulation

Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

Food production related drivers, coastal development and climate change are the most important drivers and

they co-occur very strongly.

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Soil formation

Primary production

Nutrient cycling

Water cyclingBiodiversity

Freshwater

FoodcropsLivestock

Fisheries

Wild animal and plant foods

Timber

Wood fuel

Feed, fuel & fiber crops

Climate regulation

Water purificationWater regulationRegulation of soil erosion

Pest and disease regulation

Natural hazard regulation

RecreationAesthetic values

Knowledge and educational values

Spiritual and religious

Arctic sea ice

Bivalves collapse

Coral transitions

Fisheries collapse

Hypoxia

Kelps transitions

Mangroves collapse

Marine eutrophicationMarine foodwebs

Salt marshes

Sea Grass

Termohaline circulation

Western Antarctic IceSheet Collapse

The most co-occurring ecosystem services are fisheries, biodiversity, nutrient cycling, water purification.

Many regime shifts in coastal ecosystems have impacts on aesthetic values and recreation.

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Dem

and

Agric

ultu

reSe

wage

Def

ores

tatio

nU

rban

izat

ion

Glo

bal w

arm

ing

Fish

ing

Nut

rient

s in

puts

Hur

rican

esO

cean

aci

dific

atio

nD

roug

hts

Infra

stru

ctur

e de

velo

pmen

tSe

a su

rface

tem

pera

ture

Aqua

cultu

reIrr

igat

ion

infra

stru

ctur

eG

reen

hou

se g

ases

Tide

sSu

rface

mel

ting

pond

sSu

rface

mel

t wat

erSt

rato

sphe

ric o

zone

Oce

an te

mpe

ratu

re (d

eep

wate

r)Ic

e su

rface

mel

ting

Gla

cier

s gr

owth

Clim

ate

varia

bilit

y (S

AM)

Gla

cier

sTu

rbid

ityTh

erm

al a

nom

alie

s in

sum

mer

Low

tide

sPo

lluta

nts

Flus

hing

Urb

an s

torm

wat

er ru

noff

Fish

ing

tech

nolo

gyPr

ecip

itatio

nIn

vasi

ve s

peci

esTr

aged

y of

the

com

mon

sAc

cess

to m

arke

tsSu

bsid

ies

Food

sup

ply

Wat

er s

tratif

icat

ion

Impo

undm

ents

Irrig

atio

nAt

mos

pher

ic C

O2

Tem

pera

ture

Sea

leve

l ris

eSe

dim

ents

Dis

ease

Land

scap

e fra

gmen

tatio

nR

ainf

all v

aria

bilit

yEr

osio

nFl

oods

Ferti

lizer

s us

eH

uman

pop

ulat

ion

ENSO

like

eve

nts

Upw

ellin

gs

FreshwaterFeed, fuel & fiber cropsTimberWood fuelWater regulationFoodcropsLivestockPest and disease regulationKnowledge and educational valuesSpiritual and religiousWater cyclingClimate regulationWild animal and plant foodsSoil formationRegulation of soil erosionNatural hazard regulationAesthetic valuesBiodiversityFisheriesWater purificationNutrient cyclingPrimary productionRecreation

In how many different ways can the drivers impact ecosystem services?

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Bivalves collapse

Sea grass

Marine eutrophication

Fisheries collapse

Coral transitions

Hypoxia

Mangroves collapse

Salt marshes

Kelps transitions

Marine food webs

Arctic sea ice

Thermohaline circulation

WAIS Collapse

Local

National

International

Proportion of RS Drivers

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

WA

IS

Coll

apse

Fis

herie

s c

oll

apse

Marin

e f

ood w

ebs

Salt

marshes

Arcti

c s

ea i

ce

Therm

ohali

ne c

ircula

tion

Mangroves c

oll

apse

Sea g

rass

Coral

transit

ions

Hypoxia

Marin

e e

utr

ophic

ati

on

Biv

alv

es c

oll

apse

Kelp

s t

ransit

ions

Human Indirect Activities

Biogeochemical Cycle

Biodiversity Loss

Land Cover Change

Climate

Biophysical

Water

0 2 4 6 8 10Value

05

15

Count

A B

Climate drivers are common to all regime shifts but don’t co-occur strongly, while strong co-occurrence is found in

biophysical, land cover change and biochemical drivers.

Managing regime shifts requires multi-level governance, but we can build resilience locally

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Conclusions• Key drivers cluster: food production, climate change

and coastal development

• Key ecosystem services cluster: cultural services, biodiversity and primary production

• Managing marine regime shifts requires coordinated actions across scales

• Avoiding regime shifts requires addressing multiple drivers, shared drivers offer strategies for prioritisation and synergistic action.

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