Download - Mẫu hình Dead_cat bounce. Nhóm LHTT
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BGIO DC V O TO
TRNG I HC KINH TTP. HCM
KHOA TI CHNH
----------oOo----------
TI: MU HNH DEAD CAT BOUNCE TRONGPHN TCH K THUT
Nhm sinh vin thc hin:
Tn MSSV Lp1. Hunh Th Kiu Oanh 31101023316 TC072. L Thanh Loan 3110102 1661 TC093. L Hunh Thanh Trc 31101021982 TC074.Nguyn Thi Anh Tho 31101023111 TC085.
Dng Hng Ly 31101024098 TC07
Ngy 25 thng 11 nm 2013
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MU HNH DEADCAT BOUNCE TRONGPHN TCH KTHUT
MC LCI. Cc vn chung .................................................................................................................................. 3
1. S lc vmu hnh Deadcat bounce .......................................................................................... 3
2. Cc v dvnguyn nhn dn n hin tng DeadCat Bounce ................................................. 6
3. c im mu hnh v cc sai phm ................................................................................................. 9
4. Mc gim skin ............................................................................................................................ 15
5. Chin thut giao dch: ..................................................................................................................... 16
II. Sxut hin ca mu hnh Deadcat bounce ti TTCK Vit Nam..................................................... 20
1. Deadcat bounce thng 5/2011 .................................................................................................... 20
2. Dead-cat bounce gia thng 5/2012 .............................................................................................. 21
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MU HNH DEADCAT BOUNCE TRONG PHN TCH
KTHUT
I. Cc vn chung1. S lc vmu hnh Deadcat bounceCi tn Dead cat bounce biu hin hnh vi ca gi c phiu sau mt skin
khng mong i, mang tnh tiu cc, cnh bo Nh u t nhanh chng thot khi th
trng chng khon sau mt t gim gi mnh m. t gim gi sinh ra hin tng
Deadcat bounce c mc trung bnh khong 25%. Sau t gim gi ny, gi nhy vt
ln, bin ng trong khong phc hi, v mt ln na gim lin tc trung bnh khong15%.
Hnh 10.1 cho thy mt v d in hnh ca mt Dead cat bounce. Vo cui
thng Chn, nhng nh u t thng minh bt u bn chng khon ca h, y gi th
trng xung thp. Gi gim tmc cao
xung
chtrong vng mt tun. Vo
ngy 9/10, mt cng ty mi gii ln hbc nh gi cphiu trong trung hn. Trong 2
ngy cphiu rt gi khong 30%, tmc
xung cn 26.
Mt tun ri sau, c phiu phc hi mt phn, n mc
v gi by
nhng nh u t thiu kinh nghim thc hin vic mua vo. Gi cphiu gim thp hn,
sau tng ln mt ln na hnh thnh mt h2 nh, kt thc nhng tin tc tt lnh.
Ti nh cao th2, gi gim lin tc n gia thng Mt, t mc thp nht ti
. T
mc cao trc skin gim n mc gi thp cui cng, gi gim 50%.
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Hnh 10.1V dtiu biu ca mu hnh Deadcat bounce. Mt cng ty mi giiln him xp hng ca cphiu trn thtrng chng khon, lm gi cphiu gim
mnh 50% trong khong 3 thng ri. Deadcat bounce cho php cc nh u t khn
ngoan bn lng cphiu hang nm giv ti thiu ha mt mt trc khi sst gi
tip din. Hai nh i trong khong gia thng 10 v u thng 11 cho thy du hiu
ca sst gim tip theo.
BNG 10.1
Cc tnh cht xc nh ca Deadcat bounce
Tnh cht Tho lun
Khong
cch gi
Mc cao hng ngy nm di mc thp ca ngy hm
trc, to ra mt khong cch gi (breakaway) trn biu .
Bc ri Khong cch gi gim v ri xung gia 20% v 30%,
nhng c thgim ti 70% trong 2 n 3 ngy.
Bc nhy Gi phc hi mt phn v tng tr li. Nhng s gim
gi vn cha dng li .
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Gim gi Sau khi bc nhy kt thc, mt s gim gi khc bt
u vi mc nhhn nhng gi vn gim trong khong 5%
n 25%
Kt qutm lc cngtrnh by hng lot cc pht hin him thy. Thnht, t
gim gi cng ln, bc nhy cng ln. Khi gi gim cng nhanh v mnh, tng ng vi
iu , bc nhy xut hin nhanh hn v cao hn. Theo sau cc t gim gi ln l cc
bc nhy trong ngn hn (phc hi mc cao trc ); i vi t gim nhhn,
bc nhy thng nng hn v mt mt khong thi gian di hn t c mc cao
ca n.
Biu hin Gi bc tng lnv mt xu hng gi gim
theo sau mt t gim mnh
o chiu hoc
tip din
o chiu gim gi trong di hn (hn 6
thng)
Tltht bi 10%
Skin gim gi 25%, vi khnng ln nht l 20%
t gim gi theo
sau
15%, vi khnng ln nht l gia 5% v
25%
Pht hin kinh
ngc
Bin cgim gi cng ln, bc nhycng ln
Mc mt mt cng ln, bc nhycng nhanh t ngng cao ca n.
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2. Cc v dvnguyn nhn dn n hin tng DeadCat BounceHnh 10.2 cho thy mt sgim gi 47% trong 1 ngy ca chng khon cng ty
Cephalon Inc. Cphiu t nh vo u thng 2 ti
. N chuyn bin chm hn theo
sau mt xu hng gim cho n cui thng T. Sau n thay i xung quanh mc
v t ti mt mc cao mi ti
. Sau khi t vn vin ca Cc qun l Thc phm v
Thuc men phn i vic ng dng thuc Myotrophin ca Cephalon, cphiu gim gi
v giao dch gn nh mc mt na gi trca n. Khi lng chng khon giao dch
t mc khng l: 8.4 triu, gp 15 ln so vi mc thng thng. Sut 3 ny tip theo, c
phiu phc hi li mc gim thng qua vic tng 2$ mt cphiu (tthp n cao).
Sau sgim gi c duy tr. Ging nh vic xt mui vo vt thng, chng khongim mt ln na trong mt xu hng gn nh l ng thng: t sphc hi rt cao
n mt mc thp mi
, chng khon gim 30% mt ln na.
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Hnh 10.2 Mt sthng bo tiu cc khi ngun cho Dead- cat bounce, bt u
khi xut hin khong gim gi,sau gi nhy ln, tip tc vi xu hng thp hn.
Hnh 10.3 biu thmt ssuy gim ng bo ng. Ch3 ngy trc t suy gim
mnh, cng ty mi gii dbo rng stip tc c stng mnh trong doanh thu v thunhp. iu ny lm tng mc kvng 1 cch mnh m, nhng khi cng ty bo co mt
mc lhng qu, thay v li nhun m Street kvng, gi chng khon rt 43 im trong
vng 1 ngy, tc gim 62%. Scng b thng tin xu mt cch bt ng lm s lng
lnh bn p o nhu cu mua. Chng khon gim gi v m ca mc gi thp hn
nhiu so vi ban u. Khi lng giao dch tng mnh gp nhiu ln so vi tc tng
bnh thng. Hnh 10.3 cho thy c 49 triu cphiu c giao dch trao tay da trn
nhng thng tin trn, gp 20 ln so vi thng thng.
Thng thng, ngy u tin ca xu thgim xc nhn mt mc gi thp mi v
gi hu nh bt u hi phc ngay lp tc. Hnh 10.3 chng minh rng chng khon to 1
mc gi thp vo ngy ktip, nhng vo ngy sau , gi ng ca trvmc ban u
.Sau t gim gi cc mnh, giai on bt gi bt u. Hu ht cc khon thi gian, gi
chng khon tng ln v hi phc li nhng khon mt, gim trc . Tuy nhin, giai
on bt gi ca Oxford Health Plans chdin ra ngn gn trong 1 ngy. Chng khonng ca gi cao hn, nhng xu thgim vn duy tr vo ngy ktip. Trong vng gn
2 thng, gi chng khon gim gn nh 1 na, t1 mc cao 28 5/8 xung mc thp 13
.
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Hnh 10.3. Scng bthng tin xu to ra sgim gi cc mnh trong 1 ngy,
trong gi gim 43 imtc hn 60%, nhng xu hng gim vn khng kt thc v
gi tip tc gim thm 43%.
Vy skin no to ra t gim gi mnh m? Hu ht cc skin u c
ghi nhn l nhng thng tin ring ca cng ty nh: s bt ng bi mc thu nhp m,
doanh sxu ca cc ca hng, cc vsp nhp khng thnh, chiu tr ca kton, gian
ln i khi, cc thng tin trn khng chnh hng n 1 cng ty duy nht. Hnh 10.2
cho thy nhng din bin ca gi i vi chng khon ca Cephalon, v chng khon
ca Chiron cng bnh hng khng ngoi l. Chiron c chin lc pht trin chung v
tho thun tip th vi Cephalon cho d n Myotrophindrug, v th, chng khon ca
cng ty ny cng gnh chu 1 t tn cng gi, d mc khng ln nh Cephalon (t
hn 5%).
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Ti sao gi chng khon khng thbt li, sau gim thp hn? Cc skin theo
sau cc cng btin tc xu c thgii thch cc biu hin ca gi chng khon. Mt vi
thnh vin ni bmua chng khon. Ngay ccng ty cng hnh ng v thng bo
rng n mua li 10% chng khon. Cc thng tin trn y gi chng khon tng caohn. Nhng skin theo sau to ng lc v chng khon tip tc tng gi. Tuy nhin,
vn l nh u t thc cht khng thdon cc skin sp xy ra.
3. c im mu hnh v cc sai phmKhng phi tt c cc t gim gi mnh u kt thc di dng Dead cat
bounce. Xem xt skin thhin trong hnh 10.4. Vo ngy 3/4/1997, cng ty cng b
mc thu nhp thp di mc kvng v vsp nhp ca n vi 1 cng ty khc kt
thc. Vi nh mi gii hbc chng khon ca cng ty ny. Gi chng khon nho
tmc gi 17 xung 9 5/8 tc gim 44%. Ging vi hu ht cc mu hnh Dead
cat bounce, gi chng khon sau hi phc. Tuy nhin, thay v bt ln sau ri xung
trli v chuyn ng mc thp hn, chng khon ca cng ty ny tip tc vi xu th
tng. Trong khong t hn 3 thng tip theo, chng khon hi phc li ton bcc khon
mt gi trca n.
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Hnh 10.4. S sai lm ca mu hnh Dead- cat bounce. Sau t gim gi, gi
chng khon di chuyn hng ln v tip tc tng thay v gim.
.
Mt kho st ca 24 sai phm trong dliu cho thy 83% gi chng khon c xu
hng tip tc gim thp m khng c sbt tng ng kno. Phn cn li ( 4 mu
hnh) gn ging nh trong hnh 10.4, tc l gi bt li v tng ln.
Bng 10.2
Thng schung ca "Dead - cat bounce"
M t Thng k
Slng mu hnh trong 500 cphiu
t1991 -1996
244
o ngc hay tip din 113 tip din, 131 o
ngc
Tltht bi "Dead cat bounce" 24% hay 10%
Suy gim bnh qun ca cc dng ng
(cao skin n mc thp phc hi)
37%, vi mc suy gim
c xu hng xy ra nht nm
trong khong 30% -40%
Mc trung bnh ca skin gim 25%, a phn mc
20%
Khong thi gian bnh qun din ra s
kin
2 ngy, 92% ko di 4
ngy hoc t hn
Sdng c khong trng vgi 194 hay 80%
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S khong trng b ng trong thi
gian phc hi
48 hay 22%
Skhong trng bng trong 3 thng 80 hay 36%
Skhong trng bng trong 6 thng 119 hay 54%
Chiu cao bnh qun ca bc nhy
phc hi
19%
Mc suy gim sau skin 15%, a phn nm trong
khong 5% - 25%
Khong thi gian sau skin bnh qun 3 thng (90 ngy)
Slng dng gim di mc gim s
kin
198 hay 81%
Bng 10.2 bao gm cc thng k chung cho dead cat bounce, thhin bng 244
mu hnh ca 500 cphiu trong 5 nm. Trong cc dng ny, 54% c dng o ngc
vi xu thtrc , 46% cn li c dng tip din. Hu ht cc dng (90%) u din ra
nh dtnh. Ngha l, sau mt ssuy gim ln, cphiu nhy ngc ri sau ri
xung. Chc 20 cphiu i xung m khng nhy ngc qu cao, 4 cphiu c xu
hng i ln. Nhng dng trn khng ng vi dead cat bounce.
Suy gim bnh qun, o bng chnh lch gia mc gi cao nht ca ngy trc khi
c sst gim nghim trng v mc gi thp phc hi (recovery low), l 37 %. im
thp phc hi thng l im thp cc i. Sau khi c phiu kt thc s suy gim
nghim trng v nhy ngc trln, gi thp phc hi l gi thp nht trc khi c bt c
sgia tng no bo hiu vic thay i xu hng gi.
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Sst gim thng nm trong khong 3040%. iu ny khng bnh thng do
phn ln cc dng c mt vi suy gim mnh v cc suy gim ny s lm bp mo xu
hng i ln chung. Vi vic suy gim c khuynh hng xy ra nht nm gn tlsuy
gim bnh qun, cc mc suy gim c m tnh trn hnh 10.5. Ch thdngquchung. thm tkt quca phn phi tn svic mt gi gia mc gi cao
nht trc khi c sst gim v im thp phc hi.
Hnh 10.5: Phn phi tn sca mt mt chung. Ch thdng quchung
ca mt mt chung tim cao nht ca ngy trc khi c sst gim ln n im thp
phc hi. Mc suy gim thng khong 3040%.
Mc suy gim bnh qun skin l 25%. Suy gim skin l chnh lch gia mc
gi cao nht ca ngy trc khi c s st gim ln v mc gi thp nht trc khi c
nhy ngc xy ra, o bng phn trm. Phn phi tn sca mc suy gim skin chra
rng mc suy gim skin c khuynh hng xy ra nht l 20%.
Suy gim skin din ra rt nhanh, thng chtrong 2 ngy. Phn ln l cphiu
sst gim mnh trong 1 ngy v xung thp hn na ngy tip theo trc khi bc vogiai on nhy ngc ( vic gim 2 ngy lin tip chim 71%). i khi cphiu stip
tc i xung khong vi ngy, nhng a phn (92%) bt u nhy ngc trong 4 ngy
hoc t hn.
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Phn ln cc i tng tham gia thtrng cm thy ngc nhin trc cc thng
tin tiu cc. Chnh v vy, gi cphiu sc khong trng 1 thp hn (khong trng 1:
gi cao nht ca ngy hin ti thp hn gi thp nht ca ngy trc , to nn khong
trng trn th). Ch22 % trong cc mu hnh cho thy khong ng (khong trng 2:gi tng lp y khong trng 1) trong giai on nhy ngc hay phc hi. Ngay c
sau 3 thng, ch36% khong ng c khong trng 1 v hn 1 na (54%) ng
c trong vng t hn 6 thng. Tkhi 80% dng c khong trng 1 v chmt na
ng c trong vng 6 thng, chiu hng suy gim di hn ca dng dead - cat bounce
l iu hin nhin.
Trong giai on nhy ngc ca dead cat bounce, gi c phiu tng bnh qun
19% (o tmc thp skin ti mc cao phc hi). Liu chiu cao ca c nhy ngc
c lin quan n ln ca mt mt skin khng? C. n gin, mt mt skin cng
ln, c nhy ngc cng ln. Hnh 10.6 m tmi quan hca 2 iu ny.
Hnh 10.6: Quan hgia mt mt skin v chiu cao ca c nhy. Ging tri
banh, mt cng nhiu nhy cng ln.
Vic mt thm 15% gi tr(o tim thp skin ti thp phc hi) din ra sau
khi c nhy ngc phc hi kt thc v gi gim trli. Gi thng gim di mc thp
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skin v tip tc i xung. Phn phi tn sca vic mt gi trsau skin nm trong
khong 5% n 25% v c phn phi u. Khong rng ny ch ra rng ngay ckhi
mc gim skin ln, i khi vic mt gi trvn din ra tip sau . Vic mt gi tr
sau skin din ra chm hn rt nhiu, khong 3 thng (90 ngy), o tthi im thpskin n thp phc hi.
Hnh 10.7 m tmi quan hgia mt mt skin v sngy n mc cao
phc hi) (mc gi cao nht trong giai on nhy ngc). Mc d rt kh nhn ra mi
quan h, ta c thni rng khi quy m ca mt mt skin tng, sngy n mc cao
phc hi sngn i. Ni cch khc, c nhy ngc trnn dc hn (xy ra nhanh hn).
iu ny tri vi nhng g chng ta kvng.
Hnh 10.7: Quan hgia mt mt skin v ngy ti im cao ca bc nhy.
ng thng gip m tmi quan hnhng khng c ngha thng k.
Tm li, Hnh 10.6 v 10.7 chra rng sau khi skin mt mt xy ra sl mc
phc hi cao trong thi gian ngn. Nhng mc mt mt nhhn th sbng phng
hn v tn nhiu thi gian chm im cao.
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4. Mc gim skinTrn 80 phn trm (81%) dng gim di mc gim s kin. Mc gim s
kin l mc gi thp t c sau khi din ra giai on suy gim ln nhng trc giai
on nhy ngc. Sliu ny mun nhn mnh ngay ckhi bn chu tn tht ln,bn vn nn cn thn do nhng tn tht tip theo sn.
Bng 10.3 m tcc thng k phlin quan n dead cat bounce. Mi dng u
chra slng mua cc kcao vo ngy din ra skin (y l skin tiu cc). Sau
khi gi gim, gi sphc hi v t im cao ca nhy ngc trong vng t hn 3 tun
(19 ngy).
Vy, skin xy ra vo khong gi no ca nm? Phn phi tn sca ngy trc
khi xy ra skin chra rng phn ln cphiu (40%) nm trong khong 1/3 so vi gi
cao nht trong nm. 39% cphiu nm trong khong 1/3 th2 (ngha l gica 39% c
phiu ny nm trong khong 2/3 so vi gi cao nht trong nm). Khi bn thay thmt
mt o bng phn trm vo khung gi trong nm, bn snhn thy kt qu tng t.
Bnh qun cc dng suy gim t35% n 37% m khng phthuc vo ni n bt u
trong mc khung gi ca nm ( o tngy trc khi skin din ra).
S lng breakout rt ln (xem thm nh ngha breakouthttp://forum.vietstock.vn/threads/227871-Phan-tich-ky-thuat-Breakout) (596% so vi
lng giao dch ca ngy hm trc) v tip tc tng cho n tun tip theo.
Liu cc dng c khong trng c mt mt skin ln hn khng? Cu trli l
khng, v st gim bnh qun chl 24% cho cc dng c khong trng v 27% cc dng
khng c khong trng. V liu cc dng c khong trng c sphc hi tt hn ( chng
c bt mnh hn khng?) Mt ln na, cu trli l khng do stng phc hi l 18%
vi dng c khong trng v 20% khng c khong trng.
Bng 10.3
Thng sphlin quan n "dead cat bounce"
http://forum.vietstock.vn/threads/227871-Phan-tich-ky-thuat-Breakouthttp://forum.vietstock.vn/threads/227871-Phan-tich-ky-thuat-Breakouthttp://forum.vietstock.vn/threads/227871-Phan-tich-ky-thuat-Breakout -
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M t Thng k
Skin c mc giao dch cao (t nht ln hn
50% so vi ngy trc )
238 hay 100%
Vi cc dng ng, sngy n mc cao phc
hi (tngy kt thc skin)
19 ngy
Phn trm "dead cat bounce" xy ra gn mc
Thp, Trung tm, Cao ca mc gi 12 thng
Thp 20%,
Trung tm 39%, Cao
40%
Mc suy gim i vi khong 12 thng Thp 37%,
Trung tm 35%, Cao
37%
Khi lng ca ngy breakout v 5 ngy k
tip so vi ngy trc khi breakout
596%, 304%,
177%, 154%,140%,
125%
Phn trm cc dng c khong trng c suy
gim skin ln hn cc dng khng c khong trng
24% so vi
27%
Phn trm cc dng c khong trng c mc
phc hi tt hn (c nhy cao hn) cc dng khng c
khong trng
18% so vi
20%
5. Chin thut giao dch:Khng c nhiu iu ni i vi vic giao dch theo mu hnh Dead-cat
bounce, trkhi bn ang bn cphiu ( Xem bng 10.4). i vi vthmua, i mt s
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phc hi sau bn ra, khong mt phn ba thi gian (36%), gi tin ti mt sphc hi
tng cao trong tun u tin. Hn mt na shnh thnh (56%) chim 2 tun hoc t hn.
Khi chng khong t n gi trcao nht, bin ng trong khong phc hi v ri
xung y. Nu bn chn treo vthca mnh, bn hu nh schu thm nhiu mt mtv iu c thmt hn 6 thng trc khi bn gn nh phc hi c vth. Ti sao
khng u t phn vn cn li ca bn trong mt tnh hung ha hn hn?
Nu bn ang ngh n vic bn khng cphiu kim li tt gim gi sp
xy ra, nhn vo hnh 10.8, cho thy phn trm st gim tmc bt ln cao n mc phc
hi thp. Trung bnh, sst gim nm gia 15% v 25%, ln xem nh mt ri ro
giao dch.
Hnh 10.8. Tn sphn phi ca phn gi st gim tmc cao n khi hi phc li
mc thp trc . Li nhun c thc hon li nu thc hin vic bn mt cch
chnh xc.
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Chin thut giao dch cui cng l nhn bit vmu hnh Dead-cat bounce v
tc ng ca n ln gi c. Khi mt sst gim nghim trng xy ra trong vic nm gi
mt chng khon, nguyn nhn khng thbxem thng. Tht tn thi gian mt cng
ty sa cha vn v hi phc. Bqua bt kmu hnh thtng gi no xy ra i vimt cphiu trong vng cha y 6 thng (thm ch ln ti mt nm). Mu hnh thi
ny c thstht bi hoc, nu n lm vic th stng gi c thchtrong ngn hn khi
cng ty thng bo cng nhiu tin xu (v dnh thu nhp hng qu thp).
Bng 10.4
Cc chin thut giao dch cho mu hnh hi phc nht thi
Chin thut giao dch: Sdin gii
Cht tng gi, sau bn ra:Gi chng khon sgim sau bt u bt ln.
Vic bn ra sau khi tri qua mt dao ng bt ln thng thng mt t1-2 tun.
Ti thn mt sst gim, l mt shi phc cao nhanh chng xut hin v
cc mc gi khi phc cng cao hn
Bn khng: Vic bn khng c thc hin sau khi tri qua mt dao ng bt
ln. Don mt sgim gi ti mc thp nht ca skin gim gi. Trong phn
ln khong thi gian (81%), chng khon ny tip tc thp hn 15% so vi cc
chng khon khc.
Trnh cc mu hnh: Trnh tt ccc mu hnh tng trong t nht 6 thng ( hoc
thm ch ln ti 1 nm) i vi mt cphiu ang c du hiu hi phc nht thi.
Nu mu hnh ny xy ra, li ch thu c l di mc trung bnh.
Mt khi ng rng bn bit c n ca cc tin tc xu v l do lm cho gi
chng khon st gim ng k, bn khng cphiu. Xem hnh 10.9, mt shi phc nht
thi ca Cerner Corporation. Cphiu ny gim 5 im (25%) sau khi cng ty tuyn b
thu nhp sgim thp hn mc kvng v trin vng cn li trong nm kh l ti t.
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Gi ng ca ca chng khon ny cao hn vo mi 4 ngy tip theo, sau n ng ca
mc thp hn.
Hnh 10.9. Mu hnh Deadcat bounce to ra do scng bmt mc thu nhp
m. Nh u tbn khng chng khon ngay sau khi gi bt ln cao v bo m v
thkhi gi ng ca nm trn ng xu hng. Thu nhp t c l 20% trong 1
thng.
Mt nh u tsau khi thy cphiu c xu hng tng, bn khng cphiu
ny ti mc gi ng ca l 15. Sau c y chi, xem xt gi cphiu mt cch k
lng. Nh dkin, n tip tc xu hng i xung.
Thng bo thu nhp buc cc c phiu gim thm 20% trong vng 2 ngy. K
vng mt Dead-cat bounce khc, Jill tip tc duy tr v th ca mnh. Vi tun sau, c
phiu tng mt cch bt thng, bin ng trong khon vi mc gi cao nht thp hn
so vi trc .
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Nh u t nyni cc nh tngy trc khi c thng bo tri, hnh thnh mt
ng xu hng dc xung. Khi cc mc gi ng ca nm trn ng xu hng, c y
bit l lc ng vthca mnh. Ngy tip theo, c y mua li cphiu ny v nhn
c mc gi thc hin l 12, thp hn gi ng ca hng ngy 25%. Chtrong vng 1thng, tng sli nhun m c y thu c l gn 3$ / cphn( khong 20)
Cng tt nh giao dch trc y, c y chn thng 9 ng vth, c y
phi thm 1.5$ cho mt cphiu. Tuy nhin, tlc vic bn c bt u n khi gi t
mc thp cui cng, cphiu khi phc li, tng 171/4 . Nguyn l giao dch c rt ra:
khng thtm kim li nhun bng cch ngt gia 1 m hnh . Mt sthng bo tiu cc
vthu nhp to nn mt dead-cat bounce. Jill bn khng chng khon ngay sau sbt ln
cao sau khi gi ng ca trn ng xu hng. Thnh qu giao dch l 20% thu
nhp trong vng mt thng.
II. Sxut hin ca mu hnh Deadcat bounce ti TTCK Vit Nam1. Deadcat bounce thng 5/2011Chng ta c thhiu r hn vDead-cat bounce bng cch phn tch mt trng
hp c th ca Vnindex trong phn tch k thut ca nhm bng Amibrocker. Trnghp di y l mt v ddead-cat bounce vo khong cui thng 5 v u thng 6 nm
2011.
VN-IndexDead-cat-bounce(*) c T+4 khi MACD dphng cho khnng tng mnh
v cy nn hammer theo sau shortgeen c gap.Nh tng cp, dead-cat-bounce l hin
tng phc hi kthut sau mt thi gian gim im mnh. Sau 10 phin gim mnh t
ngng khng c485, hai phin phc hi ca VN-Index c xem l hin tng dead-
cat-bounce
Thng thng hin tng dead-cat-bounce ko di trong mt thi gian ngn. Mc
d theo l thuyt y ch l s phc hi trong ngn hn nhng tn hiu tMACD v
Deadcat bounce
Tn hiu t
candle stick
Tn hiu t
MACD
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candlesticks li cho thy trin vng khc di gc phn tch k thut vkhnng
ca sphc hi.
Khong cch gia ng MACD v ng tn hiu rt ln v gi trMACD rt
thp (-15) cho thy giai on va qua VN-Index suy gim rt mnh. Chnh khongcch ca MACD v ng tn hiu angcho khnng phc hi kthut rt mnh.
VN-Index o chiu bng mt cy nn Hammer, theo sau li l mt cy nn
short green v mt khong trng gap cho thy lc mua ln ng k. Bn cnh , khi
lng giao dch trong ngy to nn hammer gp i bnh thng v vn duy tr hn 30
triu/phin. Di gc khi lng to bin ng th vic duy tr khi lng ln gip
VN-Index c nhng bin ng ln v iu ny ang ng hcho sphc hi ca VN-
Index.
Dead-cat-bounce vn chl nhng phc hi kthut v phng n phng nga ri
ro i vi nhng m c phiu c bin ng yu hn bin ng thtrng l iu m nh
u t cn quan tm trong giai on ny.
V giai on tip theo ca tn hiu phc hi ny cng chl mt gia on ngn hn
v tip theo gi li tip tc i xung v t y vo thng 8. Do ri mnh v ko
di trc nn trong cc phin giao dch tip theo, VN-Index bt u c hin tng hi
kthut. Tuy nhin, nh tng cp trong cc bo co trc, y c thchl nhng
phin phc hi ngn hn do khng c bt cmt vng chng ng kno bn di
VN-Index nn vic suy gim tip l rt dxy ra.
2. Dead-cat bounce gia thng 5/2012Tip theo di y cng l mt v dcthvmt Deadcat bounce ko di vo
khong gia thng 5/2012. Hin tng Dead- cat bounce xy ra nhiu ln v khin nhu t khng c kinh nghim dbt lm y v chu thit hi.
Khi c mt thng tin a ra v thi im gia thng 5/2012. Cc phng tin
truyn thng a tin vd tho thng t thay thcho Quyt nh s27/2007 ban hnh
Quy chtchc v hot ng cng ty chng khon. Dtho ny bao gm quy nh c
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th v vic tch bch ti khon tin gi khch hng vi ti khon ca cng ty chng
khon v cng yu cu ch s n/vn ch s hu ca cc cng ty chng khon khng
vt qu 3 ln, thp hn nhiu so vi mc quy nh 6 ln hin hnh. Vic hn ch s
dng vay nsnh hng ti cc cng ty chng khon nhnhiu hn cc cng ty chngkhon ln nn nhn chung nh hng ti thtrng l khng qu ln nhng tm l nh
u t c thbnh hng tiu cc nht l t trong bi cnh thtrng ang gim im;
100% thnh vin y ban Ti chnh - Ngn sch ca Quc hi dhp sng 17.5,
khng ng vi xut min thucho mt si tng ti ttrnh ca Chnh ph.
Thnh thc m ni th gi htrca chnh phkhng c nhiu tc dng trn c snh
lng nhng c lstc ng vmt tm l.
ChsVN-Index c phin gim im th7 lin tip. gim im c ng h
bi cc cphiu vn ha ln. im tch cc c ll khi lng giao dch ang gim dn
u. thVN-Index ang i theo hin tng Nbar gim gi. Chui gim im ny kh
Dead-cat bounce
Tn hiu tcandlestick
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ging vi thng 5/2011. Thng thng, vi mu hnh ny, thtrng thng to y theo
chV. Vng to y thng t dc khi khi lng phn kcc i v trung bnh khi
lng tng gi b bp mi ch mua. Da trn tn hiu ang c, chng ta ang i gn
ti hn ca mu hnh th.chiu tng, VN-Index c thphc hi vmc khng cnh460. chiu ngc
li, nu ph 440, VN-Index c thgim tip vmc 415-425.Ngay tu phin sau mc
440 im bxuyn thng mt cch ddng. Hon ton khng c ng thi bt y
xut hin. ChsVN-Index tip tc c mt phin gim gi mnh vi hu ht cc cphiu
u iu chnh gim gi sn trong phin giao dch sau. Mt vi n lc d y vo cui
phin gip th trng bt gim im v hnh thnh mt cy nn Hammer vo
cui ngy giao dch. Mc 430 im tng ng vi mc htrFibonacci 38,2% pht
huy tc dng gip ri ca thtrng ngng gim im. Lc ny y, khi c2 t trc
thtrng ri xung mc ny sbt trli v mt snh u t ngh rng n sln li
ln ny v kt qul mc sai lm v tip ni mt Dead-cat bounce l mt dead-cat
bounce na. VN-Index c thgim tip vvng htr415-425. Khi , nhiu khnng
chbo RSI(14) si vo vng qu bn, l tn hiu htrcho VN-Index. chiu tng,
VN-Index, c th phc hi vmc 440 hoc xa hn l 460. chiu gim, nu xung
di 415-425, VN-Index c th gim su hn v 380-390. V xu hng tip theo
khng lm chng ta tht vng khi m Vnindex ny ln vt mc 440 v tip sau l
gim khng ngng xung di mc htr430 im v xung ti vng htr415-425.
Cng tng tnh phn tch trn, khi kt thc dead-cat bounce, thtrng c xu
hng phc hi k thut do gim gi nhiu nhng nhn chung xu hng qua cc thng
tip theo th gi vn c xu hng gim mc d c nhng lc tng gi nhng khng bn
vng.
Khi dead-cat bounce xy ra, hnh ng tit cung ca nh u t c th gip th
trng phc hi nh. S phc hi ny khng phi do lc cu mnh hn m l do bn
cung khng chu bn gi thp hn na do gi cphiu xung n mc thp qu mc.
y khng phi l mt dng tn hiu mua bn m l mt tn hiu cnh bo rng thtrng
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sp ngng li iu chnh v t y. Thanh khon tng trng mt cch ttthng
sgip thtrng to y vng chc hn.
Sau vi phin gim rt mnh sc hi li do lc cu bt y mnh, nhng y ch
l hi NT cha bn c hng th bn ra nt (hi bn, xem hnh pha di) v sau thng thng th TT stip tc gim tip cho nn NT ngn hn khng nn vi vng
bt y. Tn hiu Dead cat bounce cnh bo ngi tham gia chng khon nn cn trng
vi nhng quyt nh ca mnh.
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Ti liu tham kho:
- Thomas N Bulkowski - Encyclopedia Of Chart Patterns- Dliu thtrng chng khon Vit NamPhn mm Amibroker- Website:
o http://vietstock.vn/o http://en.wikipedia.org/
http://vietstock.vn/http://vietstock.vn/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Pagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Pagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Pagehttp://vietstock.vn/