Download - MBR FERRO-ALLOYS MARKET TRACKER - Fastmarkets MB …

Published by

www.metalbulletinresearch.com

A unique source of market intelligence, analysis and forecasts covering the international ferro-alloys industry

MONTHLYUPDATE

MBR FERRO-ALLOYS MARKET TRACKER

ISSUE 279

19 November 2015

CONTENTS

Market prices & exchange rates 3

Ferro-alloy price forecasts 4

Crude steel highlights 5

Global crude steel production 6

Ferro silicon highlights 7

Silicon metal highlights 8

Manganese highlights 9

Ferro silicon & manganese supply/demand 10

Stainless steel highlights 11

Global stainless steel production 12

Ferro-chrome highlights 15

Nickel highlights 16

Molybdenum highlights 17

Vanadium highlights 18

Tungsten highlights 18

Ferro-chrome, nickel & molybdenum supply/demand 19

As expected, the mood at Metal Bulletin’s International Ferro-alloys Conference earlier this month in Prague was decidedly glum. Market participants seemed resigned to the inevitability of further price declines to come, and accepting of prolonged weakness in their markets. Despite this gloomy outlook, new entrants to the market are optimistically highlighting the need for their new capacity, much to the chagrin of established ferro-alloy producers. New ferro-silicon and manganese alloy projects in Malaysia, new vanadium capacity in Brazil, and planned silicon metal capacity in Iceland were all topics for discussion at the event.

A key question is just how low alloy prices will fall. In some markets, there seems to be no floor, given the by-product nature of a significant proportion of total output. South African UG2 chrome ore is produced as a by-product of platinum mining, and more than 60% of the world’s molybdenum production is a by-product of copper production. The pricing collapse in these two markets in particular this year is unsurprising.

The immediate outlook for ferro-alloy pricing is negative, with significant stock liquidation underway as traders and stockists look to clear alloys before the end of the year. The result has been significant pricing losses which have accelerated in the past two weeks. While ferro-alloy prices are likely to trend lower for the next several weeks, we should see most prices find a floor by the end of the year, with stable pricing emerging, at least temporarily, early next year. Reduced energy costs in most alloy producing nations are protecting ferro-alloy producers to some degree, enabling them to cut prices in order to maintain market share in an over-supplied market. On the downside, these lower energy costs are also delaying the inevitable production cuts that must occur in ferro-alloy markets for any sustainable price improvement to occur.

European ferro-alloy price forecasts ($/tonne) Source: Metal Bulletin Research

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Nov13

Mar14

Jul14

Nov14

Mar15

Jul15

Nov15

Mar16

Jul16

Nov16

FeSi 75%SiMn 65-70%HC FeCr 60% Forecast prices

Bulk alloy prices to exhibit further declines in the final weeks of 2015 before posting modest improvement in early 2016

Sample Issue

When you subscribe you will:

zReceive the most recent report every month

zUnlock the data hidden on this report

zBenefit from additional data, downloadable into Excel.

zHave regular consultations with the editor to discuss how their forecasts affect your business.

The most cost-effective forecasting service in the industry

Metal Bulletin Research hopes you enjoy your free sample of our Ferro-Alloys Market Tracker.

This is our sample issue – we are sure you’ll understand that our data is very valuable and we cannot give away the latest issue or any of our forecasting data before you subscribe.

The most cost-effective

forecasting service in the

industry£1952 €2807 $3806

Order Nowwww.metalbulletinstore.com/ferroalloys

+44 (0) 20 7779 8174Asia - +61 3 5222 6154

[email protected]

WWW.METALBULLETINRESEARCH.COM NOVEMBER 2015 MBR FERRO-ALLOYS MARKET TRACKER

32012 2013 2014 2015Year Year Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

EUROPEAN FREE MARKET PRICES(1,3)

Ferro-silicon, 75% Si €/t 1,130 1,094 1,139 1,208 1,221 1,197 1,177 1,160 1,125 1,049 968Ferro-manganese, 78% Mn €/t 906 773 746 724 735 761 763 745 747 718 660Silicon Metal, min. 98% Si, 10-20 tonne lots €/t 2,054 1,987 2,184 2,415 2,389 2,378 2,378 2,378 2,378 2,150 2,150Silico-manganese, 65-75% Mn €/t 946 847 834 841 839 823 809 775 750 687 623Medium-carbon ferro-manganese, 80% Mn €/t 2,012 2,013 2,014 1,105 1,085 1,085 1,085 1,050 1,020 980 980Charge chrome, 52% Cr $/lb 1.21 1.16 1.18 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.04 1.04Ferro-chrome, 6-8% C, 60% Cr $/lb 1.08 0.99 1.05 0.99 0.98 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.88 0.83Ferro-chrome, 0.1% C, 68-70% Cr $/lb 2.23 1.98 2.10 2.05 2.02 2.01 2.01 2.01 1.99 1.99 1.98Nickel, LME cash(4) $/lb 7.95 6.80 7.65 5.80 6.23 5.85 5.16 4.69 4.49 4.48 4.39Nickel, 3-month forward(4) $/lb 7.98 6.83 7.68 5.83 6.25 5.86 5.19 4.71 4.51 4.69 4.40Manganese min 99.7% EMM flake $/t 2,814 2,313 2,243 1,989 1,788 1,815 1,780 1,667 1,627 1,630 1,488Ferro-molybdenum, 65-70% Mo $/kg 31.42 25.88 28.53 20.04 19.29 18.16 15.37 14.85 14.63 12.90 12.53Molybdenum metal, LME cash(4) $/t 28,280 22,953 25,577 17,295 17,012 15,316 12,716 13,143 12,545 10,520 10,750Molybdenum metal, LME 3-month forward(4) $/t 27,773 22,471 25,077 17,295 17,226 15,399 12,736 13,164 12,552 10,520 10,750Molybdic oxide, drummed(4) $/lb 12.77 10.35 11.45 7.98 7.65 7.01 5.91 5.83 5.76 4.77 4.69Ferro-titanium, 70% Ti $/kg 7.40 6.36 6.04 5.58 5.39 5.26 4.97 4.93 4.77 4.41 4.08Ferro-tungsten, 75% W(4) $/kg 48.86 45.38 41.92 34.31 32.69 29.54 27.83 26.69 24.78 23.00 21.88Ferro-vanadium, 70-80% V $/kg 25.00 27.70 25.52 19.39 22.23 22.10 19.64 18.24 15.87 13.92 13.20Vanadium pentoxide, min 98% $/lb 5.59 6.00 5.46 3.80 4.01 4.25 3.83 3.43 3.07 2.76 2.59

US FREE MARKET PRICES(1,5)

Ferro-silicon, 75% Si $/lb 0.91 0.93 0.97 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.83 0.80 0.79Silicon metal $/t 2,903 2,734 3,081 3,094 3,035 2,965 2,894 2,819 2,734 2,615 2,590Ferro-manganese, 78% Mn $/t 1,224 1,063 1,060 954 940 927 877 875 838 838 825Silico-manganese, 65-75% Mn $/t 1,384 1,157 1,277 1,149 1,138 1,119 1,082 1,064 978 933 882Medium-carbon ferro-manganese, 80% Mn $/lb 0.94 0.88 0.94 0.97 0.97 0.94 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.86 0.86Ferro-chrome, 6-8% C, 60-65% Cr $/lb 1.12 1.01 1.13 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.08 1.05 1.05Ferro-molybdenum, 65-70% Mo $/lb 14.87 11.86 14.15 9.33 8.85 8.33 7.43 7.02 6.81 6.29 6.08Molybdic oxide, canned $/lb 12.78 10.41 11.71 8.06 7.62 7.24 6.01 6.08 5.88 4.91 4.72Ferro-vanadium, 70-80% V $/lb 14.14 13.17 13.07 9.98 9.84 9.75 9.53 9.00 8.43 7.72 6.70

CHINESE PRICES(6)

Ferro-silicon min 75% export fob $/t 1,383 1,391 1,377 1,264 1,230 1,230 1,218 1,201 1,175 1,187 1,135Ferro-silicon min 75%, Free Market RMB/t 6,184 6,175 5,881 5,019 4,915 5,200 5,195 5,031 4,850 4,808 4,450Ferro-manganese min 65% Mn, Free Market RMB/t 6,560 6,154 5,683 4,813 4,650 4,600 4,460 4,150 4,050 4,050 3,950Silico-manganese min 65% Mn, Free Market RMB/t 7,254 6,786 6,370 5,569 5,300 5,300 5,145 4,975 4,825 4,800 4,488Silicon metal min. 98.5% export fob Chinese ports$/t 2,176 1,941 2,102 1,987 1,985 1,858 1,774 1,639 1,610 1,619 1,568Ferro-chrome 6-8% C, 50% Cr* $/lb 0.91 0.87 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69MB Ferro-chrome 6-8% C, 50% Cr index $/lb 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69Molybdenum concentrate 45% Mo RMB/mtu 1,636 1,518 1,333 1,101 1,067 1,021 899 830 819 774 703

BULK ORE PRICES

MB Manganese Ore Index 44% Mn, CIF Tianjin $/mtu 4.90 5.42 4.51 3.09 3.02 3.00 3.02 3.04 2.93 2.75 2.29MB Manganese Ore Index 38% Mn, FOB Port Elizabeth$/mtu 4.16 4.00 3.34 2.44 2.27 2.27 2.20 2.19 2.19 2.12 1.64Chrome Ore South Africa UG2 Met 40% (7) $/t 188 165 165 160 158 160 159 158 149 142 132

EXCHANGE RATES

Dollar/sterling $/£ 1.59 1.56 1.65 1.50 1.55 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.53 1.53 1.52Yen/dollar ¥/$ 79.81 97.60 105.89 119.51 120.83 123.68 123.32 123.05 120.08 119.77 122.31Dollar/euro $/€ 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.08 1.12 1.12 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.08

Source: Metal Bulletin ResearchNotes:Current month's averages are to the 13th(1) Tonnage prices are bulk basis; lb or kg prices are metal contained(3) Delivered basis, except (4) in warehouse (5) in warehouse, Pittsburgh (6) export prices are fob main Chinese ports, free market prices are in warehouse China (7) cif main Chinese ports* Ferro-chrome China domestic spot 6-8% C, basis 50% Cr delivered duty paid

MARKET PRICES & EXCHANGE RATES

Market Prices & Exchange Rates Data is only available to paying

subscribers.

To subscribe, or for a preview of our data, please contact our

sales department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 8174

MBR FERRO-ALLOYS MARKET TRACKER NOVEMBER 2015 WWW.METALBULLETINRESEARCH.COM

4 FERRO-ALLOY PRICE FORECASTS Forecast Bulk Ferro-alloy Prices

Ferro-silicon Silicon metal Ferro-manganese Silico-manganese Mn Ore75% Si min 98% Si 78% Mn 65-75% Mn 44% Mn

EU (€/t) USA ($/lb) EU (€/t) USA ($/t) EU (€/t) USA ($/l.ton) EU (€/t) USA ($/t) ($/mtu)Nov-14 1,180 0.97 2,310 3,219 733 1,060 848 1,257 4.35Dec-14 1,199 0.94 2,320 3,219 708 1,040 836 1,213 4.33Jan-15 1,209 0.94 2,355 3,213 727 1,041 846 1,204 4.20Feb-15 1,228 0.93 2,414 3,198 746 1,036 842 1,202 3.76Mar-15 1,207 0.93 2,415 3,131 718 1,026 834 1,199 3.52Apr-15 1,208 0.91 2,415 3,094 724 954 841 1,149 3.09May-15 1,221 0.90 2,389 3,035 735 940 839 1,138 3.02Jun-15 1,197 0.88 2,378 2,965 761 927 823 1,119 3.00Jul-15 1,177 0.85 2,378 2,894 763 877 809 1,082 3.02Aug-15 1,160 0.85 2,378 2,819 745 875 775 1,064 3.04Sep-15 1,125 0.83 2,378 2,734 747 838 750 978 2.93Oct-15 1,049 0.80 2,150 2,615 718 838 687 933 2.75Nov-15 968 0.79 2,150 2,590 660 825 623 882 2.29Dec-15 950 0.72 2,100 2,523 640 800 580 800 2.10Jan-16 1,000 0.74 2,150 2,580 640 775 600 800 2.00Feb-16 1,050 0.76 2,200 2,636 660 786 625 825 2.00Mar-16 1,100 0.76 2,250 2,693 680 788 650 850 2.20Apr-16 1,125 0.76 2,225 2,664 680 788 650 850 2.35May-16 1,125 0.76 2,225 2,664 680 788 680 825 2.50Jun-16 1,110 0.75 2,200 2,636 675 783 680 825 2.45Jul-16 1,100 0.74 2,200 2,636 675 783 660 800 2.40Aug-16 1,080 0.74 2,200 2,636 690 800 660 800 2.40Sep-16 1,060 0.72 2,250 2,693 690 800 680 820 2.45Oct-16 1,050 0.72 2,250 2,693 690 800 680 820 2.50Nov-16 1,050 0.72 2,225 2,664 680 788 675 820 2.50Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Forecast Specialty Ferro-alloy PricesFerro-chrome Cr Ore Ferro-molybdenum Molybdic Ferro-vanadium Ferro-tungsten

6-8% C, 60-65% Cr Met 40% 65-70% Mo oxide 70-80% V 75% WEU ($/lb) USA ($/lb) UG2 ($/t) EU ($/kg) USA ($/lb) EU ($/lb) EU ($/kg) US ($/lb) EU ($/kg)

Nov-14 1.03 1.13 155 24.06 11.63 9.24 24.47 12.88 36.48Dec-14 1.02 1.12 154 23.14 11.21 8.99 24.17 12.58 34.83Jan-15 1.01 1.11 155 22.95 10.86 9.09 23.46 12.55 33.56Feb-15 1.02 1.10 156 20.45 10.13 8.07 21.47 11.59 32.93Mar-15 1.00 1.10 158 20.70 9.79 8.23 20.42 11.08 33.65Apr-15 0.99 1.10 160 20.04 9.33 7.98 19.39 9.98 34.31May-15 0.98 1.10 158 19.29 8.85 7.65 22.23 9.84 32.69Jun-15 0.95 1.10 160 18.16 8.33 7.01 22.10 9.75 29.54Jul-15 0.96 1.09 159 15.37 7.43 5.91 19.64 9.53 27.83Aug-15 0.94 1.07 158 14.85 7.02 5.83 18.24 9.00 26.69Sep-15 0.89 1.08 149 14.63 6.81 5.76 15.87 8.43 24.78Oct-15 0.88 1.05 142 12.90 6.29 4.77 13.92 7.72 23.00Nov-15 0.83 1.05 132 12.53 6.08 4.69 13.20 6.70 21.88Dec-15 0.80 1.00 125 12.00 5.44 4.87 12.00 6.44 21.00Jan-16 0.85 1.03 125 12.50 5.67 5.08 12.75 6.78 21.00Feb-16 0.88 1.05 130 13.50 6.12 5.48 13.50 7.12 22.00Mar-16 0.88 1.05 135 13.50 6.12 5.48 14.00 7.35 22.50Apr-16 0.90 1.07 135 13.00 5.90 5.28 14.00 7.35 23.00May-16 0.90 1.07 140 12.75 5.78 5.18 13.50 7.12 23.50Jun-16 0.90 1.07 140 12.75 5.78 5.18 13.50 7.12 24.00Jul-16 0.88 1.05 145 12.50 5.67 5.08 13.00 6.90 24.00Aug-16 0.88 1.05 145 12.50 5.67 5.08 13.00 6.90 24.00Sep-16 0.88 1.05 150 12.50 5.67 5.08 12.75 6.78 24.50Oct-16 0.88 1.05 150 12.50 5.67 5.08 12.75 6.78 24.50Nov-16 0.85 1.03 150 12.50 5.67 5.08 13.75 7.24 24.00Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Forecast Bulk Ferro-alloy Prices Data is only available to

paying subscribers.



Forecast Speciality Ferro-alloy Prices Data is only available to

paying subscribers.




5CRUDE STEEL HIGHLIGHTS

Oversupply contnues to weigh on global steel prices

MBR Outlook MBR anticipates global steel prices to remain suppressed in the final quarter of the year, as over-supply in both the semi-finished and finished steel markets persist. Curtailments in output, notably in China, have as yet been insufficient to address the existing imbalance. Steelmakers will likely actively protect their domestic steel industries through increased anti-dumping investigations as exports look to undercut and displace domestic production. Import penetration remains a significant issue. With many nations reluctant to significantly reduce output, it appears supply will continue to outpace demand for some time in spite of mills incurring losses.

SOURCE: METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH

QUARTERLY CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION - EMERGING MARKETS (% CHANGE Y-O-Y)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%Latin AmericaChinaCISTotal world


QUARTERLY CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION - MATURE MARKETS (% CHANGE Y-O-Y)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15% USAEuropeJapanTotal world

China produced 66.1Mt of crude steel in October, largely flat compared to the previous month and down 3.1% year-on-year according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Traditionally October has been a peak month for steel production, however, record-low prices and weak demand this year have put mills under increasing financial pressure amid a saturated market. In fact CISA members, incurred losses in excess of RMB25bn ($3.9bn) during Q3 2015. Despite Chinese steelmakers continuing to divert large volumes to export markets this is not proving an economically viable strategy and hence we are beginning to see curtailments in output amid multi-year lows in steel prices and the aforementioned unsustainable losses incurred. In spite of this, further downside risks to iron ore benchmarks could provide some manoeuvrability to producers enabling them to maintain margins albeit at loss-making levels and reducing the rate of crude steel production curtailments.

Meanwhile in the USA, despite a period of destocking of domestic steel inventories, local mills remain negatively affected by finished steel imports, particularly of flat products. Indeed, US imports of flat products increased 17.9% year-on-year during the first six months of the year to 8.1Mt, compared with 6.9Mt in the same period the previous year. In the long products market, imports have climbed 8.4% year-on-year to 3.9Mt over the same period. US crude steel output continues to decline, with output in the Midwest and Southern regions of the USA suffering more acutely than other regions. MBR understands some minimills have scaled back production in response to the influx of competitive imports, while other mills have telegraphed the likelihood of impending idling or shutdowns in the coming weeks and months.

Elsewhere, Russian crude steel production stood at 5.6Mt in October, down 2% year-on-year according to the federal statistics service Rosstat. Indeed Russian producers, like other major producers, have diverted increasing volumes of semi-finished and finished products onto the export market this year amid weak domestic demand. In fact, according to Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade, domestic steel consumption is forecast to decline by 11% over the course of year, compared with 43Mt consumed during 2014. MBR understands Russian producers diverted increasing volumes away from the merchant pig iron market during the third quarter in order to increase production of semi-finished steel products, owing to favourable margins on these products.

Crude Steel Highlights Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.

To subscribe, or for a preview of our data, please contact our sales department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 8174


6 GLOBAL CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION

2013 2014 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15

Belgium 7.09 9.52 1.80 1.86 1.79 1.94 1.91 1.76 0.71 0.61 0.67 0.63 0.58 0.58 0.60

France 15.69 16.14 4.21 3.86 3.98 4.02 4.14 3.71 1.44 1.31 1.45 1.38 1.42 1.04 1.25

Germany 42.64 42.94 11.20 10.07 10.39 11.06 11.09 10.43 3.87 3.61 3.71 3.77 3.61 3.43 3.38

Italy 24.48 23.71 6.48 5.25 5.36 5.97 5.75 4.93 2.10 1.83 2.00 1.92 1.85 1.00 2.08

Spain 11.93 14.25 3.93 3.21 3.46 3.85 3.98 3.28 1.40 1.33 1.38 1.27 1.00 1.00 1.28

United Kingdom 11.76 12.20 2.96 3.12 2.87 3.14 3.05 2.46 1.12 0.92 1.11 1.02 0.95 0.93 0.58

Other Europe 98.31 91.98 22.22 21.99 22.40 22.20 23.25 21.20 7.78 7.59 8.10 7.56 7.19 6.93 7.08

Total Europe 211.90 210.76 52.80 49.34 50.26 52.19 53.16 47.77 18.40 17.21 18.41 17.54 16.60 14.91 16.25

% Change Y-o-Y 0.08 -0.5% -2.7% -3.2% -7.3% -4.5% 2.0% -9.4% 0.0% -0.6% 1.9% 0.7% -1.3% -2.1% -6.0%

Canada 12.42 12.73 3.13 3.35 3.17 3.03 3.26 3.29 1.06 1.12 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.10 1.12

USA 86.95 88.17 21.98 22.75 21.82 19.88 20.10 20.67 6.43 6.41 6.84 6.84 6.99 7.00 6.68

Total N America 99.38 100.90 25.11 26.09 24.99 22.91 23.36 23.96 7.50 7.53 7.91 7.91 8.05 8.10 7.80

% Change Y-o-Y -0.11 1.5% 2.6% 3.1% 0.7% -21.9% -20.9% -24.6% -12.2% -7.7% -7.3% -5.9% -8.6% -8.6% -7.4%

Latin America 64.14 65.30 15.92 16.35 15.80 15.71 15.80 15.74 5.26 5.11 5.46 5.22 5.37 5.30 5.07

% Change Y-o-Y -1.2% 1.8% -0.7% -2.3% -0.2% -1.6% -0.8% -3.7% -7.3% -4.2% 1.4% 0.6% -1.7% -3.5% -6.0%

Japan 110.58 110.67 27.67 27.89 27.54 26.74 25.85 26.21 9.28 8.40 8.92 8.53 8.84 8.80 8.57

India 80.72 83.20 22.32 22.38 21.78 22.50 22.72 22.58 7.80 7.53 7.69 7.51 7.66 7.66 7.26

South Korea 66.05 71.54 18.47 17.37 17.87 16.91 17.63 17.60 5.93 5.74 6.02 5.86 6.06 5.92 5.62

Taiwan 22.35 23.25 5.72 5.75 6.21 5.84 5.57 5.47 2.08 1.88 1.90 1.80 1.86 1.86 1.76

China 815.36 820.55 211.42 205.85 198.91 201.16 209.04 198.93 70.54 69.05 70.81 69.18 65.87 66.94 66.12

Total Asia 1,095.29 1,109.21 285.60 279.24 272.30 273.16 280.82 270.79 95.63 92.60 95.34 92.89 90.29 91.18 89.33

% Change Y-o-Y 1.05 1.3% 4.1% 2.7% -3.8% -1.0% -1.7% -3.0% 0.3% -3.0% -0.7% -1.4% -3.6% -2.8% -2.7%

Africa 16.02 14.61 3.81 3.10 3.55 3.84 3.56 3.36 1.26 1.20 1.20 1.16 1.18 1.17 1.02

Australasia 5.55 5.49 1.30 1.44 1.37 1.37 1.46 1.51 0.40 0.44 0.53 0.48 0.51 0.51 0.50

Russia 69.23 71.46 18.22 18.18 17.87 18.17 17.52 17.62 6.14 5.92 5.93 5.67 6.05 6.05 5.53

Ukraine 32.82 27.17 7.96 6.04 5.66 5.15 6.10 5.85 1.70 1.93 2.17 2.00 1.87 1.92 2.06

Other CIS 6.47 8.43 1.91 1.94 1.75 1.70 2.06 1.74 0.70 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.54 0.63 0.58

World Total 1,600.79 1,613.33 426.81 415.28 407.88 407.58 418.08 401.37 141.28 137.28 142.50 138.30 134.99 134.00 132.38

% Change Y-o-Y 0.8% 5.5% 3.0% -2.2% -1.1% -2.0% -3.3% -1.6% -3.2% -1.1% -1.8% -3.6% -3.0% -3.3%

Source: World Steel Association, Metal Bulletin Research

(million tonnes)Global Crude Steel Production


Historical and forecast global steel production growth rates (% change y-o-y)

USA US crude steel output plunged 8.6% year-on-year in H1 2015 as the combination of surging imports, the collapse in demand from the energy sector, declining raw material costs, and bloated inventories resulted in sharp finished product price declines, triggering production cuts. US steel mill average operating rates remain around 70-75%.

Europe EU28 crude steel output gained 0.5% in H1 2015, bucking the global trend towards lower steel output. The weak local currency is helping to protect local producers, while reduced raw material costs are also improving EU steelmakers’ competitiveness this year.

Asia Chinese crude steel output is declining, but not at a fast enough pace to prevent more severe output losses in neighboring countries. China is actively exporting excess steel output to other Asian nations, with sharp declines in crude steel output evident in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand in response in H1 2015.

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15(‘m tonnes) 401 410 403 410(chg yoy) -2% -1% -1% 0%

Global crude steel output fell 2.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2015 to 811Mt. We are seeing reduced output from a number of key producing regions including Asia, North America, the CIS and Africa. China, which continues to account for more than 50% of world output, is seeing slowing growth this year, with output down 1.3% year-on-year in H1 2015 to 410Mt. We believe 2015 may see the first decline in global crude steel output since 2009.

Global Crude Steel Production Data is only available to paying

subscribers.

To subscribe, or for a preview of our data, please contact our sales

department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 8174


7FERRO SILICON HIGHLIGHTS

SOURCE: CUSTOMS DATA

MACEDONIAN FERRO-SILICON EXPORTS TO EU (TONNES)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2013 2014 2015f

up 22% y-o-y down 27% y-o-y

SOURCE: CUSTOMS DATA

INDIAN FERRO-SILICON EXPORTS (TONNES)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Jan13

Apr13

Jul13

Oct13

Jan14

Apr14

Jul14

Oct14

Jan15

Apr15

Total exports tonnes (LHS)

Exports to EU % (RHS)

European ferro-silicon spot market prices have plunged over the past month, with liquidation sales of excess stocks driving prices lower. European ferro-silicon prices fell to €900-950/tonne over the past week, down from €1,000-1,070/tonne last month. Despite the sharp declines, following on from our analysis in last month’s issue of Ferro-alloys Market Tracker, ferro-silicon prices remain above their 2009 lows of around €840/tonne, in contrast to several other alloy markets which have targeted and breached their 2009 lows. European steelmakers have not been active in the spot market this quarter as they are understood to have adequate supplies under contract agreements. A temporary maintenance outage at Norway’s Finnfjord has not affected pricing as European ferro-silicon supply is still perceived to be plentiful. The company temporarily idled two furnaces for maintenance, the smaller 20,000 tpy furnace and one of the two larger 40,000 tpy furnaces, with less than 1,000 tonnes of production lost during the outage. The lack of market response mirrors the absence of a market reaction to Elkem’s move to cut 5,000-10,000 tonnes of ferro-silicon production in September.

Meanwhile, traders are reporting reduced availability of Macedonian ferro-silicon in the EU. Reduced exports from Macedonia are evident from the latest trade data, as seen in the accompanying chart, but this too seems inadequate to prompt a pricing response.

US spot ferro-silicon prices are holding at around $0.72-0.74/lb in November, but the market is waiting direction from the results of steelmaker tenders which have yet to be settled. There are open ferro-silicon tenders from US steelmakers CMC Steel and Nucor at present. We understand Nucor has settled some tenders for ferro-silicon at $0.72/lb, but only for partial volumes, not the full tendered tonnage. Chinese ferro-silicon prices continue to struggle on declining domestic and export demand. Meanwhile, export demand remains dull as steelmakers globally face reduced demand and prices. Domestic spot prices for ferro-silicon 75% grade are averaging RMB4,150/tonne, down from RMB4,550/tonne in October.

Chinese ferro-silicon exporters are facing higher freight charges, as they must ship material through Lianyungang port, Qingdao port and Dalian port due to an explosion at Tianjin port in August. The freight charge is RMB200/tonne higher from Inner Mongolia to Lianyun port than to Tianjin port. Despite higher freight charges, export prices continue to slide, falling to $1,120-1,150/tonne fob from $1,190-1,200/tonne last month.

Indian export prices for ferro-silicon 75% grade are holding at around $1,060-1,110/tonne fob. Indian ferro-silicon exports nearly doubled in 2014 to 52,000 tonnes. Exports reached approximately 25,000 tonnes in the first half of 2015, with a growing share of exports directed to the European market. In the first six months of this year, 65% of Indian exports were shipped to Europe, up from just 42% in full-year 2014 and 34% in 2013. Meanwhile, domestic ferro-silicon prices are around Rs64,000-66,000/tonne ex-works, down from Rs65,000-67,000/tonne in October.

European prices plummet on aggressive selling

MBR Outlook We maintain the view that ferro-silicon prices will likely drift lower in the coming weeks, but have the potential for a temporary price revival early next year on seasonally reduced supply. Any pricing gains, however, would likely prove temporary as supply returns to normal levels by the second quarter, eliminating any supply-side driven pricing response. Chinese market sentiment remains low amid slower economic growth and weaker consumer demand. We understand China may cut export duties in 2016, and if true, would certainly have negative implications for ferro-silicon prices globally next year.

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600

EUROPEAN FeSi PRICE $/TONNE

Source: MBR

Ferro Silicon Highlights Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.



8 SILICON METAL HIGHLIGHTS

European standard 5-5-3 silicon metal prices are around €1,900-1,950/tonne fca (free on truck) in November, with silicon metal 4-4-1 prices at €2,000-2,050/tonne fca, both down €100-120/tonne over the past month. Silicon metal 3-3-0-3, which is used in the chemicals and solar silicon (polysilicon) sectors slipped €150/tonne over the past month to €2,150-2,200/tonne fca, while prices for silicon metal grade 2-2-0-2 fell €50/tonne to €2,350-2,400/t. Dealers reported doing business for 3-3-0-3 silicon at $2,175/t basis fca, but there was no reported 2-2-0-2 business.

We understand there may be more destocking, and in turn the likelihood of reduced prices before the end of the year, but optimism for renewed upward momentum in European prices has picked up due to a shortage in silicon metal availability for prompt shipment. Renewed weakness in the euro versus the dollar is also seen as halting shipments from China, which had been evident in recent months. The euro has dropped to $1.08, from around $1.15 in mid-October. The US silicon metal price has have slipped further over the past month to around $1.17-1.21/lb, down from $1.19-1.24/lb in October. Despite a lack of business, however, suppliers seem reluctant to cut offer prices further until longer-term delivery deals are settled. Consumers and suppliers have been locked in 2016 contract talks without conclusion so far.

Consumers are looking covered in contracted quarterly deliveries and opting to use their stock levels as they square their finances and book as much profits as possible before New Year. Early indications suggest that volumes for 2016 will be similar to those in 2015, although consumers are pushing for bigger discounts amid ample supplies. More material has entered the market this year as several consumers have switched to using aluminium scrap after a surplus build up amid slower Chinese demand.

Market sentiment is also being weighed on the potential of new supplies from US Mississippi Silicon’s new 36,000 tpy plant. The market impact of the new producer is likely to be limited as much of the material from Mississippi Silicon is already under contract, and will be replacing imports from Brazil as Rima (the owner of Mississippi Silicon) diverts sales from the USA to other markets.

The Chinese silicon metal spot market is under pressure from high stock levels and declining demand from the aluminium alloy sector. Prices for 5-5-3 grade silicon metal have fallen to RMB9,900-10,100/tonne delivered to ports, down from RMB10,300-10,500/tonne last month. Meanwhile, the Chinese export market has been quiet with overseas buyers pessimistic about near-term business. Chinese silicon metal 5-5-3 export prices have been reduced to $1,550-1,580/tonne fob China, down $40-60/tonne over the past month, but the declines have been insufficient to encourage buying interest.

SOURCE: METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH, CEIC

US SI METAL PRICES VS US MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

US automotive output, SAAR (M units) [LHS]

US Si metal ($/lb) [RHS]


1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Nov12

Mar13

Jul13

Nov13

Mar14

Jul14

Nov14

Mar15

Jul15

Nov15

Europe USA China

SILICON METAL PRICES, $/TONNE

Destocking presses prices lower in most markets

MBR Outlook Tightening availability for prompt business and the weakening euro together are expected to lead to improving European prices in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, as 2016 contract negotiations continue, US consumers are expecting firm demand in the aluminium-silicon alloys sector again next year against solid auto production levels. Volumes into the silicon-based chemicals and silicones markets also expected to be at firm levels. Nonetheless, consumers are pushing for lower fixed prices and bigger discounts on index-based contracts in 2016. In China, silicon metal prices are not expected to find a floor until December, when rising electricity prices will prompt smelter closures in southern China. Until then, however, we expect to see further price declines as smelters are forced to accept lower prices due to the financial pressures of holding elevated inventories in storage.

EUROPEAN Si METAL PRICE $/TONNE

Source: MBR

2,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0003,100 Silicon Metal Highlights Market Outlook information

is only available to paying subscribers.



9MANGANESE HIGHLIGHTS

Manganese ore, alloy markets dreadful with little chance of short-term improvementOver-supply conditions have worsened in manganese markets over the past month amid further weakness in global crude steel production. Spot business is more or less non-existent, and prices for both manganese ore and alloys continued to decline as a result over the past month. There is little hope for short-term recovery in the absence of significant production cuts. We believe that global supply of manganese ore will continue to outpace demand not only for the rest of this year but into 2016 as well, with further downward pressure upon ore prices inevitable.

Metal Bulletin’s index price for 44% manganese ore has fallen to $2.29/dmtu CIF Tianjin, down from $2.75/dmtu a month ago. Although China’s domestic ore production and total manganese ore imports have fallen year-on-year, demand is still falling more than supply and there continues to be excessive stocks of manganese ore in Chinese ports despite recent destocking activity. Ore supply is also greater than demand in many other countries including Brazil, India, Australia and South Africa. Metal Bulletin’s 37% manganese ore index is down to $1.56/dmtu from $2.07/dmtu a month ago.

We have heard that in South Africa as much of 3-4Mt of ore production is unprofitable. We understand production cuts are being considered, but have not yet been announced, by South32, UMK, Eramet, Kudumane and Tshipi. It is far from certain that any manganese ore production cutbacks will have a significant impact on prices given that manganese alloy prices remain in freefall despite cuts in South America, South Africa and India.

Chinese free market silico-manganese (min 65%) prices have fallen to RMB4,350-4,500/tonne compared with RMB4,900/tonne a month ago. At the same time on the back of not just falling ore prices, but also lower electricity prices and weakening currencies in certain producing countries, European silico-manganese prices tumbled to €580-650/tonne from €650-715/tonne last month. Also Indian silico-manganese prices fell to $695-795/tonne from $710-730/tonne and US silico-manganese prices fell to $0.33-0.41/lb from $0.37-0.42/lb a month ago.

There have been similar declines for high-carbon ferro-manganese. On very low trading volumes, spot US ferro-manganese prices have fallen to $800-820/l.ton compared with $810-895/l.ton a month ago with contract prices for not only ferro-manganese, but silico-manganese as well, expected to settle downwards once negotiations are completed in the next three to four weeks. European high-carbon ferro-manganese prices have also seen a month-on-month decline, falling to €640-680/tonne delivered from €640-725/tonne last month.

MBR Outlook With global steel output falling 2% year-on-year, pushed down by slowing demand in most of the major regions of the world – especially China – prices for both manganese ore and alloys have been tumbling with little hope for short-term recovery. Trading volumes for both ferro-manganese and silico-manganese are low to non-existent with all contractual business completed for the year and very few spot inquiries. MBR believes that the pricing points for 2016 will be sharply lower once negotiations are completed in the next three to four weeks. We also expect to see continued downward pressure on spot prices as well unless ore and alloy producers cut production, which is something they have been reluctant to do up to this point.

EUROPEAN SiMn PRICE $/TONNE

Source: MBR

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200


MANGANESE ORE VS. HIGH-CARBON FERRO-MANGANESE PRICES

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov11

May12

Nov12

May13

Nov13

May14

Nov14

May15

Nov15

$/mtu$/tonne

Europe HCFeMn (LHS)

US HCFeMn (LHS)

Mn ore (RHS)

SOURCE: METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH, CUSTOMS STATISTICS

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%

0102030405060708090

100

Total exports (kt) [LHS]Export share to Europe % [RHS]

INDIAN TOTAL SILICO-MANGANESE EXPORTS VS. SHARE OF EXPORTS TO EUROPE

Manganese Highlights Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.



10 FERRO SILICON & MANGANESE SUPPLY/DEMAND

Global Ferro-silicon Supply-Demand Balance ('000 tonnes Si content)

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 2014 Q1 15f Q2 15f Q3 15f Q4 15f 2015f Q1 16f Q2 16f Q3 16f Q4 16f 2016f

Global Consumption 1,394 1,408 1,373 1,405 5,580 1,374 1,409 1,357 1,382 5,522 1,408 1,425 1,391 1,416 5,639

Global Production 1,375 1,490 1,430 1,402 5,697 1,350 1,500 1,450 1,394 5,694 1,395 1,525 1,460 1,407 5,787

Market Balance -19 82 57 -3 117 -24 91 93 13 172 -13 100 69 -9 147

Price Forecast - European Market ($/t) 1,529 1,538 1,517 1,468 1,513 1,371 1,335 1,284 1,099 1,272 1,187 1,266 1,220 1,200 1,218Price Forecast - US Market ($/lb) 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.84 0.77 0.86 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.72 0.74

Source: Metal Bulletin Research

Global High-carbon Ferro-manganese Supply-Demand Balance ('000 tonnes)


Global Consumption, Mn Content 906 926 906 905 3,644 896 923 871 910 3,599 916 943 894 927 3,680

Global Production (Gross Weight) 1,100 1,240 1,175 1,355 4,870 1,150 1,250 1,150 1,249 4,799 1,175 1,280 1,160 1,268 4,883Global Production, Mn Content 858 967 917 1,057 3,799 897 975 897 974 3,743 917 998 905 989 3,809

Market Balance, Mn Content -48 41 10 152 155 1 52 26 65 144 0 55 11 62 128

Price Forecast - European Market ($/t) 1,043 1,044 978 901 992 817 820 838 790 816 783 767 774 780 776Price Forecast - US Market ($/l.ton) 1,058 1,082 1,050 1,052 1,060 1,034 940 863 821 915 783 787 794 795 790

Global Refined Ferro-manganese Supply-Demand Balance ('000 tonnes)


Global Consumption, Mn Content 364 372 364 363 1,464 363 374 353 368 1,458 377 388 368 381 1,515

Global Production (Gross Weight) 400 450 451 431 1,732 450 500 470 483 1,903 450 505 470 490 1,915Global Production, Mn Content 320 360 361 344 1,385 360 400 376 386 1,522 360 404 376 392 1,532

Market Balance, Mn Content -44 -12 -3 -19 -78 -3 26 23 18 64 -17 16 8 11 17

Price Forecast - European Market ($/t) 1,636 1,623 1,538 1,440 1,559 1,105 1,092 1,052 1,070 1,080 995 975 975 985 983Price Forecast - US Market ($/lb) 0.89 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.94 0.97 0.96 0.91 0.85 0.92 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75 0.77

Global Silico-manganese Supply-Demand Balance ('000 tonnes)


Global Consumption, Mn Content 2,398 2,451 2,399 2,394 9,642 2,385 2,456 2,319 2,421 9,582 2,435 2,507 2,376 2,462 9,780

Global Production (Gross Weight) 3,550 3,610 3,650 3,773 14,583 3,500 3,700 3,500 3,677 14,377 3,575 3,800 3,575 3,744 14,694Global Production, Mn Content 2,379 2,419 2,446 2,528 9,771 2,345 2,479 2,345 2,464 9,633 2,395 2,546 2,395 2,508 9,845

Market Balance, Mn Content -20 -32 47 134 128 -40 23 26 42 51 -40 39 19 46 65

Price Forecast - European Market ($/t) 1,126 1,156 1,106 1,041 1,107 941 923 867 698 857 706 757 753 770 747Price Forecast - US Market ($/lb) 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.58 0.54 0.51 0.47 0.40 0.48 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.37

Source: Metal Bulletin ResearchNote: We have revised some of our historical consumption and production figures to reflect improved data

Global Ferro-silicon Supply-Demand Balance Data is only available to paying subscribers.


Global High-carbon Ferro-manganese Supply-Demand Balance Data is only available to paying subscribers.


Global Refined Ferro-manganese Supply-Demand Balance Data is only available to paying subscribers.


Global Silico-manganese Supply-Demand Balance Data is only available to paying subscribers.



11STAINLESS STEEL HIGHLIGHTS

Austenitic rally begins, but in unusual circumstancesThe US stainless steel market is unlikely to see much improvement at least through the end of the year. The market continues to be hit by service centre destocking and an accelerated decline, at least on a year-on-year basis, of service centre shipments. Though new import arrivals are not as high as earlier in the year, they are not helping local suppliers bolster shipments. The demand decline is likely to continue as the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays approach. Even with nickel prices generally improving over the past month or so at the same time as union lockout continues at Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI), domestic transaction prices, especially for ferritic grades, continue to falter with further across the board surcharge declines at a time when domestic mills continue to offer low base prices (discounts are close to 70% on CR304), especially for large volume orders.

EU base prices remain steady around the €1,065/tonne delivered ($1,200/t) floor for cold-rolled (CR) 304 2mm/2b sheet much as expected. What was against expectations, however, is that austenitic surcharges have already risen for November deliveries thanks, officially at least, to a recent revival of sorts in LME nickel prices. Following comments on the nickel market during LME week, with the nickel market perceived to be on the verge of becoming as boringly over-supplied as aluminium, and destroyed by NPI, itself a necessary evil following the ineptitude of global nickel miners to address a market shortage, and that the next boom would not arrive until the end of the decade at the earliest. In spite of the bearish tone, to be fair reflected across all the base metals including by ourselves on zinc, nickel would appear to be finally undoing its sharp drop, particularly evident in the past quarter.

Nevertheless, as our US analysis shows, the nickel gains have been comfortably offset by further retreats in chrome and iron benchmarks and so the gains in European surcharges are hard to square, even allowing for a depreciating euro. Be that as it may, service centres contacted by MBR agreed to higher base prices, at least in local currency terms in the key final week of October, though Italian customers reveal that as demand is actually getting worse, there is little likelihood of any speculative restocking to come, even if nickel were to now outperform even our own relatively high expectations.

Chinese industrial production growth continued to contract in the third quarter and especially in September where it slipped back towards the March low. Meanwhile Japan likely slipped into recession Q3. Elsewhere in South Korea, falling business sentiment is keeping a lid on industrial activity. Although efforts are being made by the Chinese to revive activity levels, it is likely to be too late to have any significant impact for the remainder of 2015. That said, suppliers are hardening on product price. They are aware that stockist inventories were depleted before the early October holidays and have failed to revive at the same time as nickel prices have generally been firming.

MBR Outlook MBR remains optimistic that 2016 will be at least a marginally better year, if for no other reason than service centre inventories should be in better balance by then. Much, however, depends if imports continue to ease off, as it appears that they recently have started to do.

The seasonal downturn in the construction sector is likely to be severe enough to offset any gains from industrial sectors like automotive, suggesting the restocking cycle by consumers will be short-lived. In addition, other input costs for molybdenum and chrome remain weak. We therefore maintain our view that prices will fail to appreciate noticeably until next year.


CHINESE NICKEL PIG IRON (YUAN/T) VS LME NICKEL PRICES ($/T)

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

Jul14

Aug14

Sep14

Oct14

Nov14

Dec14

Jan15

Feb15

Mar15

Apr15

May15

Jun15

Jul15

Aug15

Sep15

Oct15

NPI LME


EU RAW MATERIAL INDEX VS CHINESE RAW MATERIAL INDEX

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Mar14

May14

Jul14

Sep14

Nov14

Jan15

Mar15

May15

Jul15

Sep15

EUChina

Stainless Steel Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.



12 GLOBAL STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION (‘000 TONNES)

2013 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Belgium 1,298 1,388 370 327 296 410 432 131 98 100 130 122 105 69 131 132 147 136 145 152

France 300 323 87 70 75 80 83 33 31 10 28 31 23 21 24 26 31 29 25 29

Germany 1,091 864 244 204 143 156 134 71 58 66 80 62 52 29 50 51 55 46 44 44

Italy 1,553 1,449 426 316 258 379 398 146 155 28 133 105 45 108 129 115 135 128 139 131

Spain 855 945 262 211 223 259 260 88 77 57 77 76 71 76 83 87 89 84 89 88

United Kingdom 257 295 98 64 52 67 72 30 19 21 23 22 19 11 27 20 20 24 27 21

Sweden 501 541 147 99 149 165 181 45 20 29 50 53 51 45 50 60 54 57 62 62

Finland 1,080 1,216 330 265 298 344 339 105 102 104 59 117 97 85 108 119 117 105 116 118

Austria 64 67 17 16 16 18 17 6 5 4 7 7 5 4 5 5 8 7 5 6

Total EU15 6,998 7,088 1,983 1,572 1,511 1,878 1,917 656 563 421 588 595 467 449 607 616 655 615 651 651

Other Europe2 296 277 72 70 64 64 81 24 24 24 22 21 21 22 22 21 22 27 27 26

Total Europe 7,294 7,365 2,055 1,642 1,575 1,942 1,999 680 587 445 610 616 488 471 629 636 677 643 679 677

% Change Y-o-Y -5.2% 1.0% 8.2% 7.3% -11.6% -7.2% -2.8% 15.7% 9.6% 11.9% 2.1% -1.3% -24.5% -7.9% -7.8% -7.6% -6.4% -2.4% -5.3% -0.4%

USA 2,029 2,389 604 617 602 652 594 180 203 207 207 201 208 193 221 210 222 206 203 184

Brazil4 425 424 113 94 113 116 110 38 32 32 31 39 34 39 42 36 38 36 38 36

Total Americas 2,454 2,813 717 711 715 768 704 219 234 239 238 241 242 232 263 246 260 243 241 220

% Change Y-o-Y 3.6% 14.6% 20.3% 13.0% 13.3% 14.6% -1.9% 17.0% 21.1% 18.1% 2.0% -0.1% 4.8% 45.8% 25.2% 17.8% 3.2% -2.1% -3.8% 0.6%

South Africa 492 473 128 110 93 129 128 42 37 37 36 31 30 32 44 40 45 42 44 42

% Change Y-o-Y -2.4% -4.0% -5.8% 0.3% -12.5% -9.0% 0.0% -5.0% 1.2% 1.2% -1.5% -16.4% -14.8% -5.7% -12.9% -13.1% -0.3% 0.2% -0.4% 0.2%

China3 18,984 21,693 5,603 5,336 5,669 5,014 5,745 1,835 1,733 1,823 1,780 1,935 1,806 1,929 1,770 1,531 1,713 1,904 1,951 1,890

India 2,911 2,875 731 739 654 879 956 236 241 247 251 171 253 230 277 328 273 334 307 315

Japan4 3,175 3,331 842 861 790 808 722 283 287 284 289 296 244 250 274 257 276 227 245 250

South Korea 2,109 2,018 504 500 490 535 566 169 160 172 168 180 150 160 186 176 173 186 198 183

Taiwan 1,081 1,108 310 274 268 291 269 107 103 88 82 86 87 94 101 76 115 91 88 91

Total Asia 28,260 31,026 7,990 7,710 7,870 7,527 8,258 2,630 2,524 2,615 2,571 2,668 2,540 2,663 2,608 2,368 2,551 2,742 2,789 2,727

% Change Y-o-Y 11.4% 9.8% 16.9% 5.6% 8.6% 1.0% 3.4% 15.9% 5.8% 9.4% 1.8% 3.8% 5.9% 16.8% 4.4% -2.0% 0.4% 2.3% 4.1% 3.7%

Total Stainless5 38,501 41,677 10,890 10,173 10,253 10,366 11,088 3,571 3,383 3,336 3,455 3,555 3,300 3,398 3,544 3,290 3,532 3,669 3,752 3,667

% Change Y-o-Y 7.2% 8.2% 15.0% 6.3% 5.0% 0.1% 1.8% 15.6% 7.3% 10.2% 1.9% 2.4% -0.3% 13.8% 3.0% -2.0% -0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 2.7%

Global Stainless Steel Production ('000 tonnes)

Sources: ABINOX, Acerinox, AISI, CSSC, Eurofer, ISSF, KOSA, TSIIA, TTG, INSG, MBR. 1 Italicised data is estimated. 2 Includes CIS. 3 Q1-Q3 2013 data revised by ISSF in March, 2014. 4 Derived from finished production. 5 Monthly data is not reported for Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, and has been estimated.


HISTORICAL AND FORECAST GLOBAL STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION GROWTH RATES (% CHANGE Y-O-Y)

USA Stainless steel output in the Americas surged 14.6% year-on-year in 2014 to 2.8Mt. US stainless mills are now battling elevated imports and bloated inventories.

Europe Western European stainless output rose just 1.0% year-on-year in 2014 to 7.6Mt. Steel mills are hopeful that trade case filings will help support the domestic industry.

Asia Chinese stainless steel production continues to dominate global output, while other Asian stainless production rose a mere 0.6% year-on-year to 9.3Mt in 2014. Chinese stainless mills are seeing declining consumption in home markets, and while they continue to export, we understand Chinese mills have also cut production in H1 2015.

Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15(‘000 tonnes) 10,288 10,581 10,395 10,868(chg yoy) 0% -3% 2% 6%

Global stainless steel output rose an impressive 8.3% year-on-year to 41.7Mt in 2014. China dominated global stainless output, with output at 21.7Mt accounting for more than 50% of total world production. Output growth slowed in H1 2015, but we are forecasting increasing growth for H2 2015.

Global Stainless Steel Production Data is only available to paying

subscribers.

To subscribe, or for a preview of our data, please contact our sales

department on: +44 (0) 20 7779 8174

Subscribe TodayUnlock the most extensive database of current, historical and forecast prices available anywhere

A monthly 16-page research report including:

z Analysis of ferro-alloys market prices, developments and crude steel forecast.

z Global stainless steel and crude steel production data.

z Extensive price forecasts, supply-demand data by ferro-alloys and by region, downloadable into Excel.

z Market conditions for regional ferro-alloy markets.

z Analysis of the latest market indicators and trade trends for bulk and speciality alloys.

Online access providing you with data including:

z Bulk and speciality ferro-alloys prices on a monthly basis with five-year history and one-year forecasts.

z Five-year archive of global ferro-silicon, ferro-manganese, silico-manganese, ferro-chrome, molybdenum and nickel supply-demand with one-year forecasts.

z Current and historical monthly crude steel and stainless steel production data by country.

The most cost-effective

forecasting service in the

industry£1952 €2807 $3806


+44 (0) 20 7779 8174Asia - +61 3 5222 6154

[email protected]

Metal Bulletin Research’sStainless Steels Market Tracker

Get these forecasts in theStainless Steels Market TrackerCall +44 (0) 20 7779 8000

Email [email protected] now

Global analysis and outlook for stainless steel flat and longproduct transaction, base and surcharge pricing.

Short and medium term forecasts for key market parameters– price, consumption, production and inventory.

Regional supply and demand analysis, with tables of keyproduction, consumption, inventory and trade statistics.

Analysis of alloy surcharge highlights, focusing on individualregions and mills.

Reactions and outlook for the alloy market with a series ofgraphs showing key market indicators.

www.metalbulletinstore.com/stainless

PLATE • BARS • SHEET • SECTIONS • WIRE • BILLETS • SLABS • INGOTS


15FERRO-CHROME HIGHLIGHTS

Prices tumble but continued South African rand weakness enables industry to limp onFalling costs and a weakening rand versus the US dollar have been similar themes over the past couple of years when giving reason for yet further falls in chrome prices. Over-supply and low demand growth have also become more prominent this year. A combination of these factors has seen prices continue to decline this month, most notably out of South Africa. Chrome ore prices for instance have dropped by around $15/tonne over the past few weeks, with UG2 ore out of South Africa now priced at an average of $125/tonne cif China. Metal Bulletin Research understands that Chinese ferro-chrome smelters are coming under increasing financial pressure, and this has driven some of the sharp price decline.

In some instances, Chinese ferro-chrome smelters are now struggling to attain credit and are thus issuing demands to suppliers for lower costs. If not attempting this, some are simply walking away from previously-agreed contracts, with the expectation of renegotiating at lower prices. With the alternative probably being the fate of closure that has affected South African producers including Tata Steel’s Richard Bay plant and IFML earlier this year, such tactics are understandable, albeit rather unscrupulous.

The weakening of the South African rand continues to allow such price destruction on the whole, however. Since just a few weeks ago in mid-October, the rand has weakened by some 8% against the US dollar. With mining costs, particularly oil prices, also falling over the past month, most miners are able to tolerate lower price levels in dollar terms. Moreover, South African UG2 chrome ore is produced as a by-product of platinum output, essentially ensuring the chrome ore production is extremely low cost.

South African UG2 ore has not been the only product to experience further price weakness in recent weeks. Turkish ore suppliers too have lowered their prices in order to remain competitive, with lumpy ore (40-42% Cr) now priced at just over $180/tonne cfr China, down by around $10/tonne since last month. But, while the Turkish lira has also generally weakened against the US dollar over recent years, it has been relatively stable over the past month, so miners there will be feeling the squeeze to a greater extent.

With costs tumbling, it is also no surprise that ferro-chrome prices are also coming under pressure. This has been particularly true in Europe over the past few weeks, with stainless steel mills limiting their purchases and instead primarily choosing to run down stocks until the New Year. Lower production rates at stainless steel mills in December mean that ferro-chrome needs will be lower. As a result, European spot market ferro-chrome prices have slipped to just shy of $0.85/lb, down from levels closer to $0.90/lb last month. With prices in the largest spot market, China, also continuing to head lower – they are now at $0.69/lb, down from $0.70/lb last month – first-quarter contract negotiations in Europe will be interesting. We understand South African ferro-chrome producers are already preparing for further price falls in Europe, with some talk of prices dropping toward $1.00/lb, down from the $1.04/lb price negotiated for fourth-quarter deliveries.

SOURCE: OANDA, MBR

USD/SOUTH AFRICAN RAND EXCHANGE RATE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Nov12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

Nov13

Feb14

May14

Aug14

Nov14

Feb15

May15

Aug15


CHINESE SPOT MARKET IMPORT PRICE FOR CHARGE CHROME, YUAN PER LB CR CONTAINED

44.14.24.34.44.54.64.74.84.9

5

Oct14

Dec14

Feb15

Apr15

Jun15

Aug15

Oct15

MBR Outlook While the price declines in the global chrome ore and ferro-chrome markets have been rather steady through 2015, the past month has seen some sharp falls. These have been precipitated in part by Chinese ferro-chrome smelters, who are finding it more difficult to establish credit and, we understand, are in some instances walking away from contracts and demanding lower prices from suppliers. South African miners have generally acquiesced, and a continued weakening of the rand against the US dollar has allowed this. This pattern will probably continue given expected exchange rate movements (the rand weakening against the US dollar is most likely to persist) but a shake-out is inevitable. More closures, like that at Tata Steel’s Richards Bay facility and IFML, are expected.

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16

EUROPEAN FeCr PRICE $/lb

Source: MBR

Metal Bulletin Research’sStainless Steels Market Tracker

Get these forecasts in theStainless Steels Market TrackerCall +44 (0) 20 7779 8000

Email [email protected] now

Global analysis and outlook for stainless steel flat and longproduct transaction, base and surcharge pricing.

Short and medium term forecasts for key market parameters– price, consumption, production and inventory.

Regional supply and demand analysis, with tables of keyproduction, consumption, inventory and trade statistics.

Analysis of alloy surcharge highlights, focusing on individualregions and mills.

Reactions and outlook for the alloy market with a series ofgraphs showing key market indicators.

www.metalbulletinstore.com/stainless

PLATE • BARS • SHEET • SECTIONS • WIRE • BILLETS • SLABS • INGOTS

Ferro-Chrome Highlights Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.



16 NICKEL HIGHLIGHTS

Cutbacks coming at stubborn, but loss-making, nickel majors?Aluminium led the base metals to new cycle lows in late October, with copper, lead and zinc following last week. Nickel has now joined them, but nickel’s resilience up to now has been noteworthy, arguably implying it retains some relative strength and reinforcing the view that it is still bottoming out. Indeed, our technical view for nickel has not yet changed and we maintain that this is still part of a potentially basing consolidation pattern, unless the important $8,800-9,000/tonne support zone is convincingly breached.

In our analysis on nickel producers and what we could read into their Q3 production reports, we found that output was down overall, but only thanks to unintentional supply losses due to technical problems, for example. Intentional market-related cutbacks like those declared recently by leading copper, zinc and increasingly aluminium producers, remain notably absent in nickel, at least outside the NPI supply chain, even though over 50% of global nickel production is widely reported to be loss-making. Traditional nickel producers have been playing chicken with their NPI peers, seemingly confident in the knowledge that if they hold out long enough, the NPI sector will do the cutting the market needs to revive prices. With prices on a rising trend from August to mid-October, they seemed to have a case, but a fresh fall in nickel prices since then to new lows puts cutbacks among the reluctant traditional producers right back on the agenda, especially with the dollar stronger again, continued concerns over China’s economic slowdown and commodity investors seemingly re-doubling short positioning right across the asset class.

We have noted already that although nickel prices have dived again, we still see this as a bottom-building process. If the nickel majors agree, they may still be inclined to hold out longer, if they can. But if they do not, where might cuts come from? BHP Billiton has been trying for years to offload its unwanted, loss-making Nickel West operations in Australia. No one else wants them either and we wonder how much longer the company will persevere, especially now it may be looking harder for cost-savings across its portfolio following the losses it will incur after the Samarco iron ore disaster in Brazil. Co-owner of Samarco is Vale, and the same applies to this company. Its VNC nickel operations in New Caledonia are among the highest cost in the world as it continues its struggle to ramp up and achieve economies of scale. There seem to be obvious cost savings there if Vale needs them. Also in New Caledonia, we have flagged up before that Glencore’s Koniambo operation is surely high on the at-risk list, especially given the company’s reticence about its viability right from the outset and the fact that it has been bold in its cutbacks in other markets. In recent weeks, we have learned that First Quantum has put its nickel assets up for sale. While that puts a question mark over Kevitsa and Ravensthorpe, the company will surely aim to sell them as a going concern, so perhaps the short-term closure risk for these operations have lifted.

SOURCE: LME, METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH

LME STOCKS (KT), CANCELLED WARRANTS

SOURCE: LME, METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH

PRICE DOWN ($/T), OI UP (K LOTS) - SHORTING

MBR Outlook Although too bullish initially, we were ranked fourth most accurate out of 15 price forecasters in MB’s Q3 Analysts Price Expectations (Apex) survey. We also acknowledge that with the latest downturn in prices and sentiment our Q4 forecast of $11,300/tonne was also looking too bullish, putting the focus on our low-case scenario forecast of $9,500/tonne. At the mid-point of the quarter, cash prices are averaging $10,134/tonne, so revisions are in order. If we take the view that prices are bottoming – supported by both our technical and fundamental analysis – then our low-case scenario is still realistic. Our base case moves down to $10,100/tonne and our high-case is also lowered to $10,800/tonne. We have followed these revisions into 2016 also, though we still expect an upward price trend overall next year.

NICKEL PRICE FORECAST ($/TONNE)

Source: MBR

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q116

Q216

Q316

400

420

440

460

480

04 Feb 17 Apr 26 Jun 04 Sep 13 Nov10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Cancelled warrants [RHS]

LME stocks [LHS]

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

210

220

230

240

250

260

26 Jun 31 Jul 04 Sep 09 Oct 13 Nov

Open interest

Price [RHS]

Nickel Highlights Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.



17MOLYBDENUM HIGHLIGHTS

SOURCE: METAL BULLETIN RESEARCH, EIA

CRUDE OIL PRICES VS. US FEMO PRICES

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan

99Ja

n 00

Jan

01Ja

n 02

Jan

03Ja

n 04

Jan

05Ja

n 06

Jan

07Ja

n 08

Jan

09Ja

n 10

Jan

11Ja

n 12

Jan

13Ja

n 14

Jan

15

Oil $/barrel (LHS)

US 65-70% FeMo $/lb (RHS)

European prices off recent lows, but other market still in declineOnly light trading has been seen in European noble alloys markets in November, with buyers in a cautious mood surrounding Metal Bulletin’s International Ferro-alloys Conference in Prague. The market has been static amid depressed market sentiment that prices will test ever lower multi-year lows. Suppliers are reluctant to break cover and drag down prices further, opting instead to wait as long as possible before selling their inventories stored expensively in warehouses. Duty paid and unpaid European ferro-molybdenum prices have improved from last month to around $12.50-13.00/kg, versus $11.95-12.50/kg in October. Roasted molybdenum oxide prices have also improved, gaining to $4.80-4.90/lb from $4.30-4.40/lb last month. Despite increasing off their recent lows, we believe both the alloy and concentrate markets remain vulnerable to further losses by January.

The US ferro-molybdenum spot market price is expected to see further weakness through the fourth quarter as suppliers cut offer prices to generate cash flow. A renewed push to clear inventories before the end of the year is widely expected, but there is uncertainty about how much material may be offered. The US ferro-molybdenum Mo 65-70% duty paid price has slipped to $5.70-6.00/lb as sellers seek to destock, down from $6.00-6.25/lb last month.

North American miner Thompson Creek has said it will sell its molybdenum mines in the USA and British Columbia, Canada as the company seeks to cut debt. The Thompson Creek mine in Idaho and the Endako mine in British Columbia produced a combined total of 26.3M lbs in 2014, accounting for 4.5% of the total 583.7M lbs of total world production last year.

China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB) has bought 5,300 tonnes of roasted molybdenum concentrate at a price of RMB805/mtu for the national stockpile. SRB recently tendered for 7,300 tonne of 57% molybdenum oxide and has finally secured 5,300 tonne, which will be delivered in mid-Q1 2016. The material will be supplied from China Molybdenum, Jinduicheng Molybdenum and Jinzhou New China Dragon. The deal, however, is deemed insufficient to support prices in the short term given an absence of spot market demand and persistent over-supply. The SRB’s previous purchase of 7,000 tonnes of molybdenum in July was also unable to lend any upward momentum to the market. China’s current stocks are believed to be sufficient to support domestic demand until 2018.

Chinese spot market prices for molybdenum oxide are around RMB770-790/mtu. The market has been declining as steelmakers have been cutting their tender prices for ferro-molybdenum. Chinese ferro-molybdenum spot prices are now down to RMB51,000-53,000/tonne, down RMB2,000/tonne over the past month.


US FERRO-MOLYBDENUM VS OCTG PRICES

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Nov12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

Nov13

Feb14

May14

Aug14

Nov14

Feb15

May15

Aug15

Nov15

FeMo $/lb (LHS)

Seamless OCTG J/K55 casing $/t (RHS)

MBR Outlook European consumers blame a slowdown in orders as much as anything else for declining market conditions, and have effectively written off the rest of 2015 for an upturn in their business sales, with the hope that they will get busier sometime in the first half of next year. In the meantime, we expect to see further stock liquidation that will dampen molybdenum prices in the final weeks of 2015. The slight rebound in prices over the past month, however, may indicate that prices will show some resistance to falling below the lows reached in October. While prices may be at or near a floor, we do not expect any significant improvement in molybdenum prices in the coming quarters, with prices more likely to stabilise near current levels as end-user demand remains subdued and is easily met by ample molybdenum supply.

EUROPEAN FeMo PRICE, $/KG

Source: MBR

6

12

18

24

30

36 Molybdenum Highlights Market Outlook information is only available to paying subscribers.



18 VANADIUM HIGHLIGHTS

South African outages fail to support vanadium pricesThe collapse in vanadium prices has continued over the past month, with European prices hitting lows not seen since 2003. Production issues in South Africa have failed to lend any support to pricing, highlighting the extent of the crisis facing the vanadium industry. Demand is slowing, while excess supplies remain prevalent in the market, and we are seeing sales of this distressed excess supply pushing prices to new lows. The stock liquidation dampening prices in other alloy markets is clearly a factor in the ferro-vanadium market as well. European ferro-vanadium prices have plunged to $12.90-13.50/kg this month, down from $13.00-13.50/kg in October. European vanadium pentoxide prices have also suffered further losses this month, sliding to $2.30-2.50/lb from $2.55-2.85/lb previously.

Meanwhile, the difficulties in South Africa persist, with Duferco announcing that its Vanchem Vanadium Products subsidiary has gone into business rescue proceedings. The move follows Vanchem’s unsuccessful bid to buy the remaining ore inventories from the Mapochs Mine. Mapochs is a subsidiary of Evraz Highveld Steel and Vanadium, and is also in business rescue proceedings. Vanchem relies on the Mapochs Mine for raw materials, and had already discontinued operations as it was unable to secure vanadium supplies. Now with Vanchem unable to purchase Mapochs’ ore inventories, Duferco sees no possibility of being able to restart production, though the company will likely attempt to purchase the Mapochs Mine to ensure raw material supply going forward.

Although global vanadium markets have largely shrugged off the South African supply disruptions, we do believe that once stock liquidation is complete and surplus vanadium supplies are absorbed, vanadium prices could see renewed upward momentum during 2016 as tighter supply conditions emerge.


FERRO-VANADIUM (70-80%) PRICES, $/LB

5

7

9

11

13

15

Nov12

Mar13

Jul13

Nov13

Mar14

Jul14

Nov14

Mar15

Jul15

Nov15

EU

US

TUNGSTEN HIGHLIGHTSChinese producers attempt to stand firm on prices

As forecast in last month’s report, tungsten prices have suffered further losses over the past month. In China, however, there is a growing resistance on the part of domestic miners to accede to lower prices, indicating that a tungsten pricing floor may be approaching. The latest tender for tungsten concentrates from China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB) failed as domestic tungsten producers deemed the price too low. The SRB offered a bid for 10,000 tonnes of tungsten concentrates 65% at RMB58,200/tonne. Prices are well below production costs for most Chinese producers, and miners are halting production in the hope of supporting prices. There is still ample supply, however, and spot market 65% tungsten concentrate prices tumbled to RMB54,000-58,000/tonne in November, down from RMB58,000-60,000/tonne last month.

Chinese ferro-tungsten prices also saw additional price declines over the past month as supply continues to outpace weakening demand from steelmakers, with domestic ferro-tungsten 80% prices sliding to RMB115,500/tonne from RMB125,500/tonne last month. Similarly, Chines ferro-tungsten 70% export prices fell to $20/kg fob Jiangxi from $21/kg fob in October.

Meanwhile, despite the clear over-supply in the tungsten market at present, European ferro-tungsten supply is on the rise. Russian tungsten producer Wolfram Company is looking to grow market share in Europe while prices are low. Wolfram has capacity for 2,000 tpy of ferro-tungsten, but at present is producing 1,000 tpy. European ferro-tungsten prices slipped to $21.50-22.00/kg in warehouse in November, down from $22.00-23.00/kg last month. We believe further price declines are likely in the coming weeks as dealers look to clear excess inventories in the final weeks of the year.


EUROPEAN FERRO-TUNGSTEN (75%) PRICES, $/KG

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55


19FERRO-CHROME, NICKEL & MOLYBDENUM SUPPLY/DEMAND

Global Refined Nickel Supply-Demand Balance ('000 tonnes)Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 2014 Q1 15 Q2 15f Q3 15f Q4 15f 2015f Q1 16f Q2 16f Q3 16f Q4 16f

Global Production 489 485 516 504 1,994 474 486 492 489 1,941 483 507 509 508

Global Consumption 463 483 466 456 1,869 463 500 499 492 1,954 483 524 522 517

Market Balance 26 2 50 48 125 11 -15 -7 -3 -13 0 -17 -13 -8

Reported stocks 372 392 447 507 474 518 503 496 494 461 493 476 463 455Weeks consumption 10 11 12 14 13 15 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 11

LME Cash Price ($/tonne) 14,645 18,465 18,576 15,799 16,871 14,338 13,054 10,547 11,300 12,310 11,000 12,200 13,400 14,300LME Cash Price ($/lb) 6.64 8.38 8.43 7.17 7.65 6.50 5.92 4.78 5.13 5.58 4.99 5.53 6.08 6.49


Published monthly by Metal Bulletin LtdISSN 2045-2780

Produced by: Amy Bennett, Robert CartmanKeval Dhokia Duo Fu and Jon Mulcahy

Metal Bulletin Research 8 Bouverie StreetLondon EC4Y 8AX

Tel: +44 20 7827 6488Fax: +44 20 7827 6430

Subscription enquiries:Tel: +44 20 7779 8174 Email: [email protected]

Other MBR reports available include:

z Steel Raw Material: Weekly Market Trackerz Stainless Steels Market Trackerz Galvanized Steel and Tinplate Market

Trackerz Welded Linepipe & OCTG Market Trackerz Seamless OCTG & Linepipe Market Trackerz Base Metals Market Trackerz Steel: Weekly Market Tracker

To receive a free sample of any one of the above reports, email your details to: [email protected]

DISCLAIMER - IMPORTANT PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

This Disclaimer is in addition to our Terms and Conditions as available on our website and shall not supersede or otherwise affect these Terms and Conditions.

Prices and other information contained in this publication have been obtained by us from various sources believed to be reliable. This information has not been independently verified by us. Those prices and price indices that are evaluated or calculated by us represent an approximate evaluation of current levels basedupon dealings (if any) that may have been disclosed prior to publication to us. Such prices are collated through regular contact with producers, traders, dealers, brokers and purchasers although not all market segments may be contacted prior to the evaluation, calculation, or publication of any specific price or index. Actual transaction prices will reflect quantities, grades and qualities, credit terms, and many other parameters. The prices are in no sense comparable to the quoted prices of commodities in which a formal futures market exists.

Evaluations or calculations of prices and price indices by us are based upon certain market assumptions and evaluation methodologies, and may not conform

to prices or information available from third parties. There may be errors or defects in such assumptions or methodologies that cause resultant evaluations to be inappropriate for use. Your use or reliance on any prices or other information published by us is at your sole risk. Neither we nor any of our providers of information make any representations or warranties, express or implied as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement or other information forming any part of the published information or its fitness or suitability for a particular purpose or use. Neither we, nor any of our officers, employees or representatives shall be liable to any person for any losses or damages incurred, suffered or arising as a result of use or reliance on the prices or other information contained in this publication, howsoever arising, including but not limited to any direct, indirect, consequential, punitive, incidental, special or similar damage, losses or expenses.

We are not an investment advisor, a financial advisor or a securities broker. The information published has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and is not intended for trading purposes or to address your particular requirements. The information provided is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, commodity, financial product, instrument or other investment or

to participate in any particular trading strategy. Such information is intended to be available for your general information and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any specific investment or other decisions. Your investment actions should be solely based upon your own decisions and research and appropriate independent advice should be obtained from a suitably qualified independent advisor before making any such decision.

Copyright © 2002-2015 Metal Bulletin. All rights reserved. No part of this publication (text, data or graphic) may be reproduced, stored in a data retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form whatsoever or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without obtaining Metal Bulletin Ltd’s prior written consent. Unauthorised and/or unlicensed copying of any part of this publication is in violation of copyright law. Violators may be subject to legal proceedings and liable for substantial monetary damages per infringement as well as costs and legal fees. For information about copyright licences, please contact [email protected]. Brief extracts may be used for the purposes of publishing commentary or review only provided that the source is acknowledged.

Ferro-chrome Supply-Demand Balance ('000 tonnes)Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 2014 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15e2015e Q1 16f Q2 16f Q3 16f Q4 16f 2016f

Global Consumption 2,688 2,780 2,574 2,861 10,903 2,824 2,796 2,734 2,836 11,190 2,940 2,957 2,864 2,813 11,574

Global Production 2,565 2,739 2,667 3,015 10,985 2,715 2,935 2,780 2,865 11,295 2,855 3,160 2,835 3,010 11,860

DLA Stock Disposals 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 4

Market Balance -122 -40 94 154 86 -108 140 47 30 109 -84 204 -28 198 290

Price Forecast - Europe ($/lb) 1.04 1.07 1.07 1.03 1.05 1.01 0.97 0.93 0.84 0.94 0.87 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.88Price Forecast - USA ($/lb) 1.10 1.14 1.15 1.13 1.13 1.11 1.10 1.08 1.03 1.08 1.04 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.05


Primary Molybdenum Supply-Demand Balance (million lb Mo contained)

Q3 13 Q4 13 2013 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 2014 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15f 2015f Q1 16f Q2 16f

Global Consumption 134 136 538 133 140 148 138 559 142 148 147 144 580 149 152

Global SupplyGlobal Mined Production 133 144 544 136 141 153 154 584 153 155 148 155 611 155 155Conversion Losses to Oxide (1.5%) -2 -2 -8 -2 -2 -2 -2 -9 -2 -2 -2 -2 -9 -2 -2Recovery from Catalysts 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 4 1 1Total Global Supply 132 143 540 135 140 152 153 580 151 154 147 154 606 154 154

Market Balance -2 7 2 2 0 3 15 21 10 6 0 10 25 5 2

Price Forecast - European MarketFerro-Molybdenum ($/kg) 23.71 24.54 25.88 25.08 33.35 31.39 24.29 28.53 21.37 19.17 14.95 12.48 16.99 13.17 13.00Molybdic Oxide ($/lb) 9.44 9.67 10.35 9.99 13.73 12.76 9.31 11.45 8.46 7.55 5.83 4.78 6.65 5.35 5.28

Source: Metal Bulletin ResearchNote: We have revised our historical molybdenum consumption and production figures to reflect improved data

Ferro-chrome Supply-Demand Balance Data is only available to paying subscribers.


Global refined nickel Supply-Demand Balance and base case price forecast, 2011-2016 Data is only available to paying subscribers.


Primary Molybdenum Supply-Demand Balance Data is only available to paying subscribers.


http://www.metalbulletinresearch.com/Popups/TermsAndConditions.aspx?ItemID=1

http://www.metalbulletinresearch.com/Popups/TermsAndConditions.aspx?ItemID=1

The information you provide on this form will be used by Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC and its group companies (“we” or “us”) to process your order and/or deliver relevant products/services and content. We may also monitor your use of our website(s), including information you post and actions you take, to improve our services to you and track compliance with our terms of use. Except to the extent you indicate your objection below, we may also use your data (including data obtained from monitoring) (a) to keep you informed of our products and services; (b) occasionally to allow companies outside our group to contact you with details of their products/services; or (c) for our journalists to contact you for research purposes. As an international group, we may transfer your data on a global basis for the purposes indicated above, including to countries which may not provide the same level of protection to personal data as within the European Union. By submitting your details, you will be indicating your consent to the use of your data as identified above. Further information on our use of your personal data is set out in our privacy policy, which is available at www.euromoneyplc.com or can be provided to you separately upon request. If you object to contact as identified above by telephone , fax , or email , or post , please tick the relevant box. If you do not want us to share your information with our journalists , or other companies please tick the relevant box.

I want to subscribe to MBR’s Ferro-Alloys Market Tracker

MBR’s Ferro-Alloys Market Tracker

£1,952/ €2,807 / $3,806 (annual subscription) 20% VAT applicable

I wish to pay by: Cheque Invoice Credit Card*

*Please call us to pay by credit card or pay online www.metalbulletinstore.com/ferroalloys

Personal Details:

First Name ................................................................ Last Name ........................................................

Email ...............................................................................................................................................

Company Name ......................................................... Job Title ...........................................................

Address ............................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................

......................................................................................................................................................

Post/Zip Code ............................................................ Country ...........................................................

Tel ......................................................................... Fax .................................................................


+44 (0) 20 7779 8174Asia - +61 3 5222 6154

[email protected]

MBR’s Ferro-Alloys Market Tracker

Download - MBR FERRO-ALLOYS MARKET TRACKER - Fastmarkets MB …

Top Related