NORTH CENTRAL
REGIONAL POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
2013 TO 2038
M A N I T O B A
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MBS 2015 - 3D PRICE: $15 AUGUST 2015MBS 2015 - 3D
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Executive Summary............................................................................................ 3
Economic Region Boundary Map ..................................................................... 4
Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5
Notes to Users .................................................................................................... 6
Highlights ............................................................................................................ 7
AppendicesA. Methodology .............................................................................................. 9B. Base Population Adjustment ...................................................................... 15C. Regional Results ........................................................................................ 17D. Glossary ..................................................................................................... 37
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Population: o The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) projects North Central's population will reach
51,200 residents on July 1, 2020. o Compared to MBS' estimate of 50,200 residents for July 1, 2013, North Central's
population is expected to increase by 1,000 individuals (2.0%) by July 1, 2020.
• Age Structure: o MBS projects that on July 1, 2020, half of North Central's population will be older than
37.7 years, while the other half will be younger. o Children aged 14 or under are expected to comprise 20.3% of North Central's July 1,
2020 population. Individuals aged 15 to 64 are projected to account for 62.3% of North Central's residents, while the remaining 17.4% are predicted to be aged 65 or over.
• Assumption Overview: o MBS assumes regional fertility will be constant and there will be moderate increases in
life expectancy at birth. MBS assumes migration flows, with the exception of intraprovincial migration, will be constant from 2020 onward.
Component By 2015 By 2020
Total Fertility Rate 2.37 2.37Life Expectancy - Male 78.2 78.8Life Expectancy - Female 82.3 82.8Intraprovincial In^ 1,930 1,780Intraprovincial Out^ 2,060 1,830Net Intraprovincial -120 -60Interprovincial In 330 290Interprovincial Out 450 370Net Interprovincial -120 -80Immigration 100 110 Emigration 60 50 Net International 50 60Other International* 30 20Total Net Migration† -170 -50 ^Intraprovincial migration is not constant, but follows a natural log trend from 2020 onward. *Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. †Total Net Migration is the sum of Net Intraprovincial, Net Interprovincial, Net International and Other International Migration.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Mafeking
Grand Rapids
Gypsumville
Lundar
Eriksdale
Ashern
Moosehorn
AlonsaMcCreary
Glenella
Fisher Branch
Arborg
Riverton
Hodgson
Berens River
Bloodvein
Powerview-Pine Falls
St Georges
Great Falls
Lac duBonnet
Sprague
Rennie
Bissett
Brandon
PortagePrairiela
WINNIPEG
Roblin
Russell
BinscarthAngusville
Rossburn
Inglis
Grandview
GilbertPlains
OchreRiver
Ste. Rosedu Lac
Virden
Reston
Oak Lake
Alexander
RiversKenton
Oak RiverMiniota
Strathclair Newdale
ShoalLake
McAuley
St-Lazare
Elkhorn
Birtle
Foxwarren
Melita
PiersonWaskada
Napinka
Boissevain
Minto
HartneyTilson
Swan RiverMinitonas
Bowsman
The Pas
Dauphin
EthelbertFork River
Rorketon
Souris
DeloraineKillarney
Nesbitt
Wawanesa
Belmont
Cartwright
Holland
Notre Dame
TreherneSt Claude
Elm Creek
Roland
Somerset
Pilot Mound
Crystal City
WinklerManitou
Miami
Dunrea
Neepawa
Arden
ForestStation
Minnedosa
Rapid City
Morden
PlumCoulee
Altona
Gretna
Carman
Emerson
Morris
St. Pierre-Jolys
Letellier Dominion City Vita
LaBroquerie
Oakbank
Dugald
Stonewall
Rosser
Teulon
Inwood
Woodlands
BirdsHill
Hadashville
Niverville
St.Adolphe
Lorette
Ste. Anne
White-mouth
Ellie
St. Laurent
Starbuck
Sanford
Gimli
SelkirkEast
Selkirk
Steinbach
Beausejour
Lake
Cedar
Winnipegosis
Lake
Lake
Manitoba
Winnipeg
Lake
Dauphin
Lake
Winnipegosis
Hamiota
Erickson
Glenboro
Carberry
Gladstone
MacGregor
Langruth
Assiniboine
River
Red
Riv
er
Cartography by: Manitoba Conservation
GeoManitoba MAN 2438
EDWARD
PIPESTONE
ARCHIE
ELLICE
RUSSELL
SHELLMOUTH-BOULTON
RIVER
SHELL
RIVER
SWAN
HILLS-BURG
SILVER
CREEK
WALLACE
ALBERT
ARTHUR
MINIOTA
BIRTLE
MINITONAS
GRANDVIEW
ROSSBURN
SHOALLAKE
HAMIOTA
WOODWORTH
SIFTON
CAMERON
BRENDA
WIN-CHESTER
BLAN-SHARD
ETHELBERT
GILBERTPLAINS
STRATH-CLAIR
DALY
WHITEHEAD
GLENWOOD
WHITEWATER
MORTON
SASKAT-CHEWAN
HARRISON
DAUPHIN
MOSSEY RIVER
WILLIAM
ODANAH
ELTON
OAKLAND
CORNWALLIS
RIVER-SIDE
KILLARNEY-TURTLE
MOUNTAIN
STRATH-CONA
MINTO
CLAN-
RIVER
OCHRE
LAWERENCE
STE.ROSE
McCREARY
ROSE-DALE
LANGFORD
NORTH CYPRESS
SOUTH CYPRESS
ROBLIN
ARGYLE
Baldur
LANS-DOWNE
GLENELLA
VICTORIA
LOUISE
NORTH NORFOLK
WESTBOURNE
LAKEVIEW
SOUTHNORFOLK
LORNE
PEMBINA
PORTAGE La PRAIRIE
SIGLUNES
ERIKSDALE
THOMPSON
STANLEY
DUFFERIN
GREY
COLDWELL
ST.
LAURENT
WOODLANDS
ST. FRANCOIS
ROLAND
RHINELAND
CARTIER
XAVIER
ROSSER
MACDONALD
MORRIS
MONT-CALM
ROCKWOOD
BIFROST
GIMLI
ST
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E. ST.
PAUL
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HANOVER
SPRINGFIELD
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LA BRO-
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STE. ANNE
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LAC DU BONNET
WHITE-MOUTH
STUARTBURN
REYNOLDS
PINEY
MOUNTAIN
MOUNTAIN
PARK
ALONSA
GRAHAMDALE
GRAHAM-
DALE
FISHER
ARMSTRONG
ALEXANDER
KELSEY
KELSEY
PINAWA
� Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
OFFICIAL REGIONS
FOR DATA COLLECTION
INTERLAKE
NORTH
SOUTHWEST
PARKLANDS
SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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INTRODUCTION
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) has used its Regional Cohort Component Model to develop this projection for Manitoba and its Economic Regions. MBS derived the base population by incorporating an adjustment for statistical anomalies in Statistics Canada's net undercoverage results. This added 16,154 individuals to Statistics Canada's estimate of Manitoba's July 2013 population (see Appendix B).
This report focuses on the North Central region, expanding on projection data published in Manitoba's Regions - Population and Demographic Projections 2013 to 2038 (MBS 2015-3).The data in this report results from the same set of assumptions as the Medium projection scenario published in MBS' Manitoba Population and Demographic Projections 2013 to 2048 (MBS 2014-3).
This report analyzes how regional population and various components of growth are projected to change over the next 25 years, with an emphasis on the year 2020. The appendices provide additional information on the regional results, as well as the methodology used to create them. A glossary defining some of the terms used in this document is provided at the end of the publication.
The Economic Regions Manitoba is divided into eight Official Regions for Data Collection, also known as Economic Regions (see the map on page 4). The following table shows the association between Manitoba's Economic Regions and its Census Divisions.
ECONOMIC REGION CENSUS BASE POPULATION NAME CODE DIVISION 2013 DISTRIBUTION (%)
Southeast 10 1, 2, 12 110,100 8.59South Central 20 3, 4 64,400 5.02Southwest 30 5, 6, 7, 15 111,800 8.72North Central 40 8, 9, 10 50,200 3.92Winnipeg 50 11 717,100 55.95Interlake 60 13, 14, 18 92,900 7.25Parklands 70 16, 17, 20 41,300 3.22North 80 19, 21, 22, 23 93,700 7.31
Manitoba Total 1,281,600 100.00 Note: Population is for July 1 of given year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Available for $15 each, MBS has prepared a report for each Economic Region providing in-depth projection results.
Further information can be obtained from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics by contacting Tara Newton at 204-945-2406.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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NOTES TO USERS
Projections are not forecasts Projecting population growth and demographic change is not the same as forecasting. A forecast tells what the most likely future will be. A projection, however, attempts to establish plausible scenarios of population growth, based on assumptions made about demographic components such as fertility and mortality rates, as well as migration flows. The resulting projection is what would occur if the stated assumptions were to hold true.
Component assumptions are based on current demographic trends, which will eventually change. Making precise assumptions about the number of immigrants and the flows of people moving between provinces is an especially difficult process, since any number of external factors can easily influence these components. As the process of change is cumulative, the reliability of projections may decrease over time.
Projections are not guarantees. This possible scenario of population growth is the result of the stated projection assumptions.
Adjustment of Base Population The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics firmly maintains that due to statistical anomalies in their net undercoverage results, Statistics Canada substantially underestimated Manitoba’s May 10, 2011 population.
To mitigate this undercount, MBS developed its own series of population estimates by age, gender and Economic Region, going back to July 1, 2007.
This population projection utilises MBS' population estimate for July 1, 2013, which incorporates an additional 16,154 individuals at the Manitoba level. Appendix B provides additional detail on the age and gender distribution of the adjustment.
Census Year Notation In this report, population is provided for July 1 of the given year, while the components of population growth are provided on a Census year basis (July 1 of the given year to June 30 of the following year). Occasionally, this report makes use of Census year notation to describe the period of time being covered. For example, the period July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014 would be denoted as 2013/14.
Sex and Gender For the purposes of this report, the terms sex and gender are used interchangeably.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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HIGHLIGHTS
MBS projects that the North Central region's population will reach 51,200 residents on July 1, 2020. This is a total increase of 1,000 individuals, or 2.0%, from MBS' July 1, 2013 estimate. On average, the region is expected to increase by 0.3% annually, the weakest positive growth rate among the regions.
It is expected that North Central will account for 3.7% of Manitoba's population on July 1, 2020, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the region's 2013 share of 3.9%.
Over the 2013 to 2020 period, MBS projects total net migration for North Central will be an average outflow of 150 residents per year. On average, MBS expects that the North Central region's births will outnumber their deaths by 290 people annually.
MBS projects North Central’s median age (the age at which half the population is older, and half is younger) will be 37.7 years in 2020, 0.3 years lower than Manitoba as a whole.Compared to the region's 2013 level of 38.2 years, this is an expected decrease of 0.5 years. MBS anticipates North Central will have the fourth youngest median age in 2020.
Compared to the rest of the province, North Central's July 1, 2020 age distribution is expected to show an excess of individuals 24 and under and between the ages of 55 and 65. However, a lack of residents between the ages of 25 and 49 is anticipated.
Children aged 14 or under are expected to comprise 20.3% of North Central's July 1, 2020 population. Individuals aged 15 to 64 are projected to account for 62.3%, while the remaining 17.4% of residents are predicted to be aged 65 or over.
50.2
51.2
47
49
51
53
55
57
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
North Central Estimated & Projected PopulationEstimated Projected
Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population Pyramid - 2020Projected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+100+ 100+100+ 100+North Central Non-North Central
Data Source: MBS Projection
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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METHODOLOGY
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) has used its Regional Cohort Component Model to develop this projection for Manitoba and its Economic Regions. MBS used the following assumptions to generate population and components of demographic change by single years of age and gender.
Data Sources This MBS population projection makes use of the following data sources:
• Population & Component estimates as of July 1, by age and gender for Manitoba (Statistics Canada - September 2014).
• Population & Component estimates as of July 1, by age and gender for Census Divisions (Statistics Canada - February 2014).
• Live Births and Deaths of Manitobans in Manitoba (Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency - Custom Tabulations).
• Provincial Nominee Program data (Manitoba Labour & Immigration - Custom Tabulations).
Base Population The base population estimates were derived using data available from Statistics Canada. These MBS estimates are based on the 2011 Census counts, and have been adjusted for net Census undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and an estimate of the demographic growth between Census day and the date of the estimate. MBS also incorporated an adjustment for statistical anomalies in Statistics Canada's net undercoverage results. This effectively added 16,154 individuals to Statistics Canada's estimate of Manitoba's July 2013 population. Appendix B provides additional information on this adjustment.
For each of Manitoba's Economic Regions, the projection model requires population for each gender by single years of age. To achieve this, MBS applied a component-cohort method to the 2006 final intercensal population estimate by age, gender and region. Components of population growth from Statistics Canada, together with a reduced estimate of the Residual Deviation were used to derive the MBS population estimates for 2013.
Fertility MBS used data from Statistics Canada and the Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency to determine the ratio of age specific fertility rates (ASFR) to the total fertility rate (TFR) for each Economic Region. Averages of the ratios for 2010 to 2012 were calculated for each region. Regional ASFR distributions were assumed to remain at these averages throughout the projection.
Taking the ratio of the TFR for a given Economic Region to the TFR for Manitoba as a whole, index rates were calculated for each region. Based on the average index for 2010 to 2012, together with Manitoba's 10 year average TFR, regional TFR assumptions were made. It was assumed that the TFR for each region would remain constant throughout the projection period.
It should be noted that Manitoba's projected TFR does not remain constant, as it is calculated using regional projection results, and is therefore influenced by regional population changes.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Mortality MBS constructed life tables using the average of death data covering the 2010 to 2012 period (Statistics Canada), in conjunction with population data for 2011 (Statistics Canada). In certain situations, raking was used on the death data in order to construct the life tables.
Initially, life tables for each Economic Region were created using 5-year age groups. Then, based on the life expectancy at birth results from the initial life tables, the regions were grouped together in order to calculate life tables based on single years of age.
For these projection scenarios, the groups are the same for both genders, and consist of: • Group 1 - North • Group 2 - Southwest, North Central, Winnipeg, Interlake and Parklands • Group 3 - Southeast and South Central
For each regional group, life expectancy at birth for males was assumed to increase by 0.9 years for every five years of the projection. Similarly, females were assumed to have a five-year increase of 0.5 years.
By modifying the average number of deaths in each age group by the same certain percentage, namely, the one required to achieve the desired life expectancy at birth, projected life tables were created based on the grouped life tables.
At the beginning of the projection period, the age and gender specific survival rates from the 2011 grouped life tables are used for each Economic Region. At the end of the projection period, the age and gender specific survival rates from the projected life tables are used for each Economic Region. The remaining years of the projection use linear interpolation to calculate survival rates based on the assumed growth in life expectancy at birth.
Migration Age and Gender Distributions For all migration components, an age and gender distribution for Manitoba was calculated using an average of five years of data. While distributions for all components were calculated using data from Statistics Canada, the immigration component also made use of data from Manitoba Labour & Immigration. It was assumed that the age and gender distribution for Manitoba would apply to all Economic Regions, and would remain constant throughout the projection.
Regional Distributions Regional distributions for all migration components were derived using data from Statistics Canada. For the immigration component, separate distributions were calculated for Provincial Nominees and non-Provincial Nominees. Averages over various time periods formed the basis for the projection assumptions. For 2020 onward, distributions were assumed constant for some components, while others assumed a growth trend. The regional distributions for the years 2013, 2014 and 2016 to 2019 were calculated by linear interpolation.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Method of Regional Migration Distribution by Component
Migration Component By 2015 ----------------------- By 2020 ----------------------
Intraprovincial (In and Out) Average Natural Log Trend (2010-2012) (2001-2012)
Interprovincial (In and Out) Average Natural Log Trend (2010-2012) (2001-2012)
Provincial Nominees Average Average (2011-2013) (2009-2013)
Non-Provincial Nominees Average Average (2011-2013) (2009-2013)
Emigration Average Average (2010-2012) (2008-2012)
Other International* Average Average (2009-2012) (2001-2012)
*Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. Due to issues with the regional net non-permanent residents for the years 2005/06 and 2010/11, those years are excluded from average calculations. Note: Projection methods using averages are constant from 2020 onward; those using the natural log trend follow the trend.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Manitoba Migration Levels Assumptions for Manitoba's migration flows were derived using data from both Statistics Canada and Manitoba Labour & Immigration. It was assumed that with the exception of the intraprovincial migration component, levels would remain constant from 2020 onward. The migration flows for the years 2014 and 2016 to 2019 were calculated by linear interpolation.
Manitoba Projected Migration Levels by Component
Migration Component By 2015 ----------------------- By 2020 ----------------------
Intraprovincial (In and Out) 27,500 25,900^ Interprovincial In 9,300 7,700Interprovincial Out 14,000 11,500Provincial Nominees 10,700 10,700Non-Provincial Nominees 3,900 3,900Emigration 1,500 1,500Other International* 1,600 1,500*Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. ^Intraprovincial migration is not constant, but follows a natural log trend from 2020 onward.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Regional Cohort Component Model Overview Start with Population At beginning of year (July 1st)
On a sex and single year of age basis, for
each Economic Region.
Manitoba is calculated from regional results.
add in Births• plus Age specific fertility rate * Population
(Females 15 to 49)
add in Net Migration • plus Immigration• minus Emigration• plus Other international migration • plus Interprovincial in • minus Interprovincial out • plus Intraprovincial in • minus Intraprovincial out
subtract Deaths • minus (1 - Survival Rate) *
(Population + Births + Net Migration) increase Age by 1 year
Results in Projected population at beginning of next year
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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APPENDIX B
BASE POPULATION ADJUSTMENT
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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BASE POPULATION ADJUSTMENT
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics firmly maintains that due to statistical anomalies in their net undercoverage results, Statistics Canada substantially underestimated Manitoba’s May 10, 2011 population.
To mitigate this undercount, MBS applied an upward adjustment of 16,154 individuals to Manitoba's total population. MBS' estimates for North Central incorporate an upward adjustment of 1,080 people for July 1, 2013.
2013 Population Estimates by Selected Age Group - North Central
Age Statistics Manitoba Bureau Population AdjustmentGroup Canada of Statistics People Percent (%)
0-4 3,570 3,550 -20 -0.6 (7.3%) (7.1%) (-0.2 points)
5-17 9,450 9,520 70 0.7 (19.3%) (19.0%) (-0.3 points)
18-24 4,720 5,040 320 6.8 (9.6%) (10.0%) (0.4 points)
18 & Over 36,070 37,110 1,040 2.9 (73.5%) (74.0%) (0.5 points)
15-64 31,230 32,060 830 2.7 (63.6%) (63.9%) (0.3 points)
55-64 6,030 6,260 230 3.8 (12.3%) (12.5%) (0.2 points)
65 & Over 7,110 7,380 270 3.8 (14.5%) (14.7%) (0.2 points)
65-74 3,980 4,070 90 2.3 (8.1%) (8.1%) (0.0 points)
75-84 2,130 2,260 130 6.1 (4.3%) (4.5%) (0.2 points)
85 & Over 990 1,050 60 6.1 (2.0%) (2.1%) (0.1 points)
All Ages 49,090 50,170 1,080 2.2Note: Population is for July 1 of given year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Numbers in brackets refer to an age group's percent share of total, or the change, in percentage points, thereof.
Data Source: MBS Estimates and Statistics Canada
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
4 &Under
10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100 &Over
People
Base Population Adjustment*By Age Group: July 1, 2013
North CentralMales Females
Data Source: MBS Estimates and Statistics Canada*Defined as MBS estimate minus Statistics Canada estimate.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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APPENDIX C
REGIONAL RESULTS
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North CentralDemographic Statistics
Demographic Estimated ProjectedComponent 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2023 2028 2038
Population (July 1) 48,881 48,707 50,200 50,700 51,200 52,000 53,400 55,600Change 1 -35 299 100 250 267 280 220Change (%) 1 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4Births 699 720 690 730 750 790 810 780Deaths 415 385 410 430 440 450 480 540Natural Increase 284 335 280 300 320 340 330 250Intraprovincial In 2,230 1,664 1,960 1,840 1,780 1,760 1,740 1,710Intraprovincial Out 1,999 1,693 2,170 1,920 1,830 1,820 1,810 1,790Net Intraprovincial 231 -29 -210 -80 -60 -60 -70 -80Interprovincial In 387 395 470 310 290 300 300 310Interprovincial Out 388 408 590 400 370 370 380 380Net Interprovincial -1 -13 -110 -90 -80 -80 -80 -70Immigration 65 73 130 110 110 110 110 110Emigration 33 48 60 50 50 50 50 50Net International 32 25 70 60 60 60 60 60Other International 2 26 -4 30 20 20 20 20 20Total Net 3 288 -21 -220 -100 -50 -60 -60 -701) Average annual change. 2) Comprised of net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants.3) Sum of Net Intraprovincial, Net Interprovincial, Net International and Other International Migration.Note: Components are for July 1 of given year to June 30 of following year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population PyramidProjected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+2013
100+ 100+100+ 100+2020
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North CentralPopulation by Age Group
14 & 85 & Year Under 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 Over Total
Level2013 10,700 7,400 5,300 5,800 7,300 6,300 4,100 2,300 1,000 50,2002018 10,400 7,600 5,900 5,100 6,500 6,900 4,700 2,500 1,100 50,7002020 10,400 7,400 6,400 5,000 6,000 7,000 5,100 2,700 1,200 51,2002023 10,600 7,100 7,100 5,000 5,600 6,800 5,500 3,100 1,200 52,0002028 11,100 7,000 7,400 5,800 4,900 6,100 6,100 3,600 1,400 53,4002038 11,800 7,100 6,800 7,200 5,600 4,700 5,400 4,800 2,200 55,600Average Annual Change from 20132018 -60 40 120 -140 -160 120 120 40 20 1002020 -43 0 157 -114 -186 100 143 57 29 1432023 -10 -30 180 -80 -170 50 140 80 20 1802028 27 -27 140 0 -160 -13 133 87 27 2132038 44 -12 60 56 -68 -64 52 100 48 216Average Annual Percent Change from 2013 (%)2018 -0.6 0.5 2.3 -2.4 -2.2 1.9 2.9 1.7 2.0 0.22020 -0.4 0.0 3.0 -2.0 -2.5 1.6 3.5 2.5 2.9 0.32023 -0.1 -0.4 3.4 -1.4 -2.3 0.8 3.4 3.5 2.0 0.42028 0.2 -0.4 2.6 0.0 -2.2 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.7 0.42038 0.4 -0.2 1.1 1.0 -0.9 -1.0 1.3 4.3 4.8 0.4
Note: Population is for July 1. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
4 &Under
10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100 &Over
People (000's)
Population ChangeBy Age Group: 2013 to 2020
Males Females
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 19 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North CentralNatural Change
International Migration
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
International MigrationEstimated & Projected
Emigration Immigration* Net International*
*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.
ProjectedEstimated
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Natural ChangeEstimated & Projected
Deaths Births Natural Change
ProjectedEstimated
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 20 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North CentralTotal Net Migration Components
Component Growth
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Total Net Migration ComponentsEstimated & Projected
Net Intraprovincial Net InterprovincialNet International* Total Net Migration
*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.
ProjectedEstimated
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Component GrowthEstimated & Projected
Total Out Migration DeathsTotal In Migration* BirthsComponent Growth
*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.
ProjectedEstimated
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 21 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North Central10 Year Comparison
Manitoba Comparison - 2020
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population PyramidEstimated & Projected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+2013
100+ 100+2003
100+ 100+2023
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population Pyramid - 2020Projected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+North Central
100+ 100+100+ 100+Manitoba
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 22 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North Central All Ages Median Age
14 & Under 14 & Under (Share of All Ages)
15 to 64 15 to 64 (Share of All Ages)
65 & Over 65 & Over (Share of All Ages)
Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)
13
15
17
19
21
23
2001 2011 2021 2031
Percent
Estimated Projected
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
55
57
59
61
63
65
2001 2011 2021 2031
Percent
Estimated Projected
25
27
29
31
33
35
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
16
18
20
22
24
26
2001 2011 2021 2031
Percent
Estimated Projected
9
10
11
12
13
14
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
35
36
37
38
39
40
2001 2011 2021 2031
Years
Estimated Projected
40
45
50
55
60
65
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 23 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North CentralGrowth Rates for Total Population
Growth Rates for 65 & Over Population
Data Source: MBS Projection
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percent Change
Projected Growth RatesBy Selected Age Group
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 & Over
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percent Change
Projected Growth RatesBy Selected Age Group
14 & Under 15 to 64 65 & Over
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 24 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
North CentralPopulation Distribution by Selected Age Group
Potential Labour Force Entrants Vs. Potential Labour Force Retirees
Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.020.0
1
Projected PopulationDistribution by Age Group
12 & Under 13 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 3435 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 & Over
2013All Ages - 50,200
2020All Ages - 51,200
2038All Ages - 55,600
18.4
7.6
10.0
10.511.6
14.6
12.5
14.7 17.7
6.8
10.3
12.69.8
11.8
13.7
17.4 18.4
6.9
8.7
12.213.0
10.0
8.4
22.4
Percent Share
7.0
9.5
12.0
14.5
17.0
19.5
22.0
2001 2011 2021 2031
Population Aged 15 to 24 & 55 to 64Estimated & Projected
15 to 24 55 to 64
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Share of Total (%)ProjectedEstimated
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)ProjectedEstimated
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 25 -
Tabl
e 1
PR
OJE
CTE
D C
OM
PON
ENTS
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
GR
OW
TH F
OR
NO
RTH
CEN
TRAL
B
OTH
SEX
ES
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- M
IGR
ATIO
N-
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- C
ENSU
SPO
PULA
TIO
NN
ATU
RAL
NET
INTR
A-N
ET IN
TER
-N
ET IN
TER
-TO
TAL
YEAR
(JU
LY 1
)B
IRTH
SD
EATH
SIN
CR
EASE
PRO
VIN
CIA
LPR
OVI
NC
IAL
NAT
ION
ALO
THER
NET
2013
50,2
0069
041
028
0-2
10-1
1070
30-2
2020
1450
,200
690
420
270
-160
-120
6030
-200
2015
50,3
0070
042
028
0-1
20-1
2050
30-1
7020
1650
,400
710
420
280
-110
-110
5030
-140
2017
50,6
0072
043
029
0-1
00-1
0050
30-1
20
2018
50,7
0073
043
030
0-8
0-9
060
20-1
0020
1950
,900
740
430
310
-70
-90
6020
-70
2020
51,2
0075
044
032
0-6
0-8
060
20-5
020
2151
,400
770
440
330
-60
-80
6020
-50
2022
51,7
0078
045
033
0-6
0-8
060
20-6
0
2023
52,0
0079
045
034
0-6
0-8
060
20-6
020
2452
,300
800
460
340
-60
-80
6020
-60
2025
52,5
0080
046
034
0-6
0-8
060
20-6
020
2652
,800
810
470
340
-70
-80
6020
-60
2027
53,1
0081
047
033
0-7
0-8
060
20-6
0
2028
53,4
0081
048
033
0-7
0-8
060
20-6
020
2953
,600
810
490
320
-70
-80
6020
-60
2030
53,9
0080
049
031
0-7
0-8
060
20-6
020
3154
,100
800
500
300
-70
-80
6020
-60
2032
54,4
0080
051
029
0-7
0-8
060
20-7
0
2033
54,6
0079
051
028
0-7
0-7
060
20-7
020
3454
,800
790
520
270
-70
-70
6020
-70
2035
55,0
0079
052
027
0-8
0-7
060
20-7
020
3655
,200
790
530
260
-80
-70
6020
-70
2037
55,4
0079
053
025
0-8
0-7
060
20-7
0
2038
55,6
0078
054
025
0-8
0-7
060
20-7
0N
OTE
: A C
ENSU
S YE
AR IS
DEF
INED
AS
JULY
1 T
O J
UN
E 30
D
ATA
SOU
RC
E: M
ANIT
OB
A B
UR
EAU
OF
STAT
ISTI
CS
AU
GU
ST 2
015
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 26 -
Tabl
e 2
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
BO
TH S
EXES
(IN 0
00'S
)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.6
3.8
3.5
2.8
2.3
1.7
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
50.2
2014
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
3.5
2.9
2.4
1.8
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
50.2
2015
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.2
3.8
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.8
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.3
2016
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.7
3.5
3.1
2.5
1.9
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.4
2017
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.1
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.2
2.6
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.6
2018
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.6
2.1
1.5
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.7
2019
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.5
2.7
2.5
2.6
3.0
3.3
3.7
3.3
2.7
2.2
1.5
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.9
2020
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.7
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.7
3.3
2.8
2.3
1.6
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
51.2
2021
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.8
3.1
3.6
3.4
2.9
2.3
1.7
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
51.4
2022
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.4
1.7
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
51.7
2023
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.4
3.5
3.1
2.4
1.8
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
52.0
2024
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.1
2.5
1.9
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
52.3
2025
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.5
3.1
2.6
2.0
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
52.5
2026
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.7
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.0
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
52.8
2027
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.1
2.5
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.1
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
53.1
2028
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.2
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.3
2.9
2.1
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
53.4
2029
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.1
3.3
2.9
2.2
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
53.6
2030
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.9
3.3
2.9
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
53.9
2031
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
2.9
2.4
2.3
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.0
2.4
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
54.1
2032
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.0
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.2
3.0
2.5
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
54.4
2033
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.8
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.1
3.0
2.5
1.7
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
54.6
2034
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.9
3.1
2.5
1.8
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
54.8
2035
3.9
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.1
2.6
1.9
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.0
55.0
2036
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.7
3.0
2.6
2.0
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
55.2
2037
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.0
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.0
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
55.4
2038
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.1
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.1
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.1
55.6
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 27 -
Tabl
e 3
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
FEM
ALE
(IN 0
00'S
)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
24.9
2014
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.0
2015
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.0
2016
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.0
2017
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.1
2018
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.2
2019
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.3
2020
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.4
2021
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.5
2022
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.7
2023
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.8
2024
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
25.9
2025
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
26.1
2026
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
26.2
2027
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
26.4
2028
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
26.5
2029
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
26.6
2030
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
26.8
2031
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
26.9
2032
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
27.0
2033
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
27.1
2034
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
27.2
2035
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
27.3
2036
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
27.4
2037
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
27.5
2038
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
27.6
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 28 -
Tabl
e 4
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
MAL
E(IN
000
'S)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.2
2014
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.3
2015
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.6
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.3
2016
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.4
2017
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.5
2018
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.5
2019
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.6
2020
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.8
2021
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
25.9
2022
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
26.0
2023
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
26.2
2024
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
26.3
2025
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
26.4
2026
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
26.6
2027
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
26.7
2028
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.4
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
26.9
2029
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
27.0
2030
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
27.1
2031
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
27.3
2032
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
27.4
2033
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
27.5
2034
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
27.6
2035
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
27.7
2036
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
27.8
2037
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
27.9
2038
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
28.0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 29 -
Tabl
e 5
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
BO
TH S
EXES
(PER
CEN
T O
F TO
TAL)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
7.1
7.0
7.3
7.9
6.8
5.4
5.1
5.4
6.2
7.1
7.5
6.9
5.6
4.6
3.5
2.6
1.9
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
146.
97.
07.
37.
77.
15.
55.
15.
36.
06.
87.
56.
95.
84.
83.
52.
62.
01.
20.
70.
20.
010
0.0
2015
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.6
7.5
5.6
5.1
5.1
5.9
6.4
7.6
6.9
6.0
5.0
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.2
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
166.
77.
07.
07.
47.
66.
05.
04.
95.
76.
37.
47.
06.
15.
03.
82.
82.
01.
30.
70.
20.
010
0.0
2017
6.8
7.0
6.9
7.3
7.7
6.2
5.1
4.9
5.4
6.2
7.1
7.1
6.3
5.1
3.9
2.9
2.0
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
100.
0
2018
6.8
6.9
6.8
7.2
7.7
6.5
5.1
4.9
5.2
5.9
6.8
7.2
6.5
5.1
4.2
3.0
2.0
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
100.
020
196.
86.
76.
97.
27.
66.
85.
24.
95.
15.
86.
57.
26.
55.
44.
33.
02.
11.
30.
60.
20.
010
0.0
2020
6.9
6.6
6.8
7.1
7.4
7.2
5.4
4.9
4.9
5.6
6.1
7.2
6.5
5.5
4.4
3.1
2.1
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
217.
06.
56.
86.
87.
37.
35.
74.
84.
75.
56.
07.
06.
65.
74.
53.
22.
21.
30.
70.
20.
010
0.0
2022
7.1
6.5
6.8
6.7
7.1
7.3
6.0
4.9
4.7
5.2
5.9
6.7
6.6
5.8
4.6
3.3
2.3
1.3
0.7
0.2
0.1
100.
0
2023
7.2
6.6
6.7
6.7
7.0
7.4
6.3
4.9
4.7
5.0
5.7
6.5
6.7
6.0
4.6
3.5
2.3
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.1
100.
020
247.
26.
66.
56.
77.
07.
26.
65.
04.
74.
85.
56.
26.
75.
94.
83.
72.
41.
40.
70.
20.
110
0.0
2025
7.3
6.7
6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1
6.9
5.2
4.7
4.7
5.4
5.8
6.7
6.0
4.9
3.8
2.4
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.1
100.
020
267.
46.
86.
46.
76.
66.
97.
15.
54.
74.
55.
25.
76.
66.
15.
13.
82.
51.
50.
70.
20.
110
0.0
2027
7.4
6.9
6.4
6.6
6.5
6.8
7.1
5.8
4.7
4.5
4.9
5.6
6.3
6.1
5.2
3.9
2.6
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.1
100.
0
2028
7.4
6.9
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.7
7.1
6.0
4.7
4.5
4.8
5.4
6.0
6.2
5.3
3.9
2.8
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
100.
020
297.
47.
06.
56.
46.
56.
77.
06.
34.
84.
54.
65.
25.
86.
25.
34.
12.
91.
60.
80.
30.
110
0.0
2030
7.4
7.1
6.5
6.2
6.5
6.6
6.8
6.7
5.0
4.5
4.4
5.1
5.4
6.2
5.4
4.3
3.0
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.1
100.
020
317.
47.
16.
66.
26.
56.
46.
76.
85.
34.
54.
34.
95.
36.
15.
44.
43.
11.
80.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2032
7.3
7.2
6.7
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.6
6.8
5.6
4.5
4.3
4.7
5.2
5.8
5.5
4.5
3.1
1.9
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2033
7.3
7.2
6.8
6.3
6.4
6.2
6.5
6.9
5.8
4.6
4.3
4.5
5.0
5.6
5.6
4.6
3.2
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
347.
27.
26.
96.
36.
26.
26.
56.
86.
14.
64.
34.
44.
95.
35.
64.
63.
32.
10.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2035
7.2
7.2
6.9
6.4
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.5
4.8
4.3
4.2
4.8
5.0
5.6
4.7
3.5
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
100.
020
367.
17.
27.
06.
56.
16.
36.
26.
56.
65.
14.
34.
14.
74.
95.
54.
83.
62.
21.
00.
30.
110
0.0
2037
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.6
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.4
6.6
5.4
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.9
5.3
4.8
3.7
2.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
100.
0
2038
7.0
7.1
7.1
6.7
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.7
5.6
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.7
5.1
4.9
3.8
2.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
100.
0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 30 -
Tabl
e 6
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
FEM
ALE
(PER
CEN
T O
F TO
TAL)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
7.0
6.8
7.0
7.8
6.5
5.4
5.3
5.8
6.4
6.8
7.2
6.8
5.3
4.6
3.7
2.8
2.2
1.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
100.
020
146.
86.
96.
97.
76.
75.
45.
35.
66.
36.
57.
36.
65.
74.
73.
72.
92.
21.
41.
00.
30.
110
0.0
2015
6.6
7.0
6.8
7.5
7.1
5.5
5.2
5.4
6.2
6.3
7.3
6.6
5.9
4.9
3.7
3.0
2.2
1.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
166.
67.
06.
67.
27.
35.
85.
15.
36.
16.
27.
16.
66.
15.
03.
83.
12.
21.
60.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2017
6.6
6.9
6.6
7.1
7.5
5.9
5.1
5.1
5.8
6.3
6.9
6.7
6.3
5.0
3.9
3.2
2.2
1.6
0.8
0.4
0.1
100.
0
2018
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.9
7.5
6.1
5.1
5.0
5.6
6.2
6.6
6.9
6.5
5.0
4.2
3.3
2.2
1.6
0.8
0.4
0.1
100.
020
196.
76.
66.
86.
87.
46.
45.
15.
15.
46.
16.
37.
06.
35.
34.
33.
32.
41.
50.
80.
40.
110
0.0
2020
6.8
6.4
6.8
6.6
7.2
6.8
5.3
5.0
5.3
6.0
6.1
7.0
6.2
5.5
4.5
3.3
2.4
1.5
0.8
0.3
0.1
100.
020
216.
96.
46.
86.
57.
07.
05.
64.
95.
15.
96.
06.
86.
35.
74.
63.
32.
51.
50.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2022
7.0
6.4
6.7
6.4
6.8
7.2
5.7
4.9
5.0
5.6
6.0
6.6
6.3
5.8
4.5
3.5
2.6
1.6
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2023
7.1
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.7
7.2
5.9
5.0
4.9
5.4
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.0
4.5
3.7
2.7
1.6
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
247.
16.
56.
46.
66.
57.
16.
24.
94.
95.
25.
86.
06.
65.
84.
83.
82.
71.
70.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2025
7.2
6.6
6.3
6.7
6.4
6.9
6.5
5.1
4.9
5.0
5.7
5.8
6.6
5.8
5.0
3.9
2.7
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
267.
36.
76.
36.
66.
26.
76.
75.
44.
74.
95.
65.
76.
45.
85.
24.
02.
71.
80.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2027
7.3
6.8
6.3
6.6
6.2
6.5
7.0
5.5
4.7
4.7
5.4
5.7
6.2
5.9
5.3
4.0
2.8
1.9
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2028
7.3
6.8
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.4
7.0
5.7
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.6
5.9
6.0
5.5
4.0
3.0
1.9
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
297.
36.
96.
46.
36.
46.
36.
96.
04.
84.
74.
95.
55.
66.
15.
34.
33.
11.
91.
00.
30.
110
0.0
2030
7.3
7.0
6.4
6.1
6.4
6.1
6.7
6.3
4.9
4.7
4.8
5.4
5.4
6.1
5.3
4.4
3.2
1.9
1.0
0.4
0.1
100.
020
317.
37.
06.
56.
16.
46.
06.
56.
55.
24.
54.
75.
35.
46.
05.
34.
63.
32.
01.
10.
40.
110
0.0
2032
7.2
7.1
6.6
6.1
6.4
5.9
6.3
6.7
5.3
4.5
4.5
5.1
5.4
5.8
5.4
4.7
3.3
2.1
1.1
0.4
0.1
100.
0
2033
7.2
7.1
6.7
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.2
6.8
5.5
4.6
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.5
5.5
4.9
3.3
2.2
1.1
0.4
0.1
100.
020
347.
17.
16.
86.
26.
16.
16.
16.
75.
84.
64.
54.
75.
25.
25.
64.
73.
52.
31.
20.
40.
110
0.0
2035
7.1
7.1
6.8
6.3
5.9
6.2
5.9
6.5
6.1
4.7
4.5
4.6
5.1
5.1
5.6
4.7
3.7
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
100.
020
367.
07.
16.
96.
45.
96.
25.
86.
36.
35.
04.
34.
45.
15.
05.
54.
83.
82.
41.
20.
50.
110
0.0
2037
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.5
5.9
6.1
5.8
6.1
6.6
5.1
4.4
4.3
4.8
5.1
5.3
4.8
3.9
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.1
100.
0
2038
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.6
6.0
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.6
5.3
4.4
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.1
2.5
1.4
0.5
0.1
100.
0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 31 -
Tabl
e 7
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
MAL
E(P
ERC
ENT
OF
TOTA
L)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
7.2
7.2
7.6
8.0
7.2
5.4
5.0
5.1
6.0
7.4
7.8
7.0
5.8
4.7
3.2
2.3
1.7
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
100.
020
147.
07.
17.
77.
87.
55.
64.
94.
95.
87.
17.
87.
15.
94.
93.
32.
31.
81.
00.
40.
10.
010
0.0
2015
6.9
7.0
7.7
7.7
7.9
5.8
5.0
4.7
5.6
6.5
7.8
7.3
6.1
5.0
3.5
2.4
1.8
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
100.
020
166.
87.
07.
37.
67.
96.
15.
04.
65.
36.
37.
67.
46.
25.
03.
82.
51.
71.
00.
50.
10.
010
0.0
2017
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.6
7.8
6.6
5.1
4.7
5.0
6.0
7.3
7.4
6.4
5.2
3.9
2.6
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
0
2018
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.5
7.8
6.9
5.1
4.7
4.9
5.7
7.1
7.5
6.5
5.3
4.2
2.6
1.8
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
020
196.
96.
86.
97.
67.
77.
25.
34.
74.
75.
56.
77.
46.
75.
44.
32.
71.
81.
10.
50.
10.
010
0.0
2020
7.0
6.7
6.8
7.5
7.5
7.5
5.5
4.7
4.5
5.3
6.2
7.4
6.8
5.5
4.4
2.9
1.8
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
020
217.
16.
66.
97.
27.
57.
65.
94.
84.
45.
16.
07.
26.
95.
64.
43.
11.
91.
10.
50.
10.
010
0.0
2022
7.2
6.6
6.9
7.1
7.4
7.5
6.3
4.8
4.5
4.7
5.8
6.9
6.9
5.8
4.6
3.2
2.0
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
0
2023
7.3
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.4
7.5
6.6
4.9
4.5
4.6
5.5
6.7
6.9
5.9
4.7
3.4
2.0
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
020
247.
36.
76.
66.
87.
47.
46.
95.
14.
54.
55.
26.
46.
86.
14.
83.
52.
11.
10.
60.
10.
010
0.0
2025
7.4
6.8
6.5
6.7
7.4
7.2
7.3
5.3
4.5
4.3
5.1
5.8
6.9
6.2
4.9
3.6
2.2
1.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.
020
267.
56.
96.
56.
77.
07.
27.
45.
74.
64.
24.
85.
76.
76.
35.
03.
72.
41.
20.
50.
10.
010
0.0
2027
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.2
6.1
4.6
4.3
4.5
5.4
6.4
6.3
5.2
3.8
2.5
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
0
2028
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.6
6.7
7.1
7.2
6.4
4.7
4.3
4.4
5.1
6.2
6.3
5.2
3.9
2.6
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
100.
020
297.
57.
16.
66.
56.
67.
17.
16.
74.
94.
34.
34.
95.
96.
35.
44.
02.
71.
40.
60.
20.
010
0.0
2030
7.5
7.2
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.1
7.0
7.0
5.1
4.3
4.1
4.8
5.4
6.3
5.5
4.1
2.8
1.5
0.6
0.2
0.0
100.
020
317.
57.
26.
76.
36.
66.
86.
97.
15.
44.
44.
04.
55.
36.
15.
64.
22.
91.
60.
60.
20.
010
0.0
2032
7.4
7.3
6.8
6.4
6.6
6.6
6.9
7.0
5.9
4.4
4.1
4.2
5.1
5.9
5.6
4.3
3.0
1.7
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
0
2033
7.4
7.3
6.9
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.8
7.0
6.1
4.5
4.1
4.2
4.8
5.7
5.7
4.4
3.0
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
347.
37.
37.
06.
46.
46.
46.
96.
96.
54.
74.
14.
14.
65.
45.
64.
63.
11.
80.
70.
20.
110
0.0
2035
7.3
7.3
7.0
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.8
6.7
6.8
4.9
4.1
3.9
4.5
5.0
5.7
4.7
3.2
1.9
0.8
0.2
0.1
100.
020
367.
27.
37.
16.
66.
26.
36.
56.
76.
95.
24.
23.
84.
34.
95.
54.
83.
32.
00.
90.
20.
110
0.0
2037
7.2
7.2
7.1
6.7
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.7
5.6
4.3
3.9
4.0
4.7
5.3
4.8
3.5
2.1
0.9
0.2
0.1
100.
0
2038
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.8
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.8
5.9
4.3
3.9
3.9
4.4
5.1
4.8
3.5
2.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
100.
0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 32 -
Tabl
e 8
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: N
OR
TH C
ENTR
AL
(FEM
ALES
AS
A PE
RC
ENTA
GE
OF
MAL
ES)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
96.6
94.0
90.6
96.6
88.9
98.5
104.
511
2.4
105.
291
.090
.296
.990
.995
.611
4.2
117.
112
8.5
133.
724
0.6
425.
065
0.0
98.8
2014
95.9
96.3
88.8
96.5
88.7
95.1
106.
311
1.0
108.
391
.393
.291
.894
.896
.211
0.2
124.
411
7.2
135.
323
0.6
400.
065
0.0
98.7
2015
95.1
99.1
87.0
96.0
89.1
93.5
104.
011
3.7
109.
296
.492
.789
.596
.396
.910
3.6
123.
212
0.0
138.
021
3.8
385.
070
0.0
98.7
2016
95.7
98.2
88.7
93.8
90.7
93.0
100.
311
2.7
113.
897
.592
.588
.697
.398
.098
.212
1.7
122.
815
0.2
179.
036
5.2
466.
798
.620
1795
.697
.490
.391
.795
.588
.399
.610
7.5
115.
810
3.0
92.9
89.1
96.4
94.9
99.1
121.
512
4.5
149.
217
3.0
346.
250
0.0
98.6
2018
95.9
96.7
93.7
90.2
95.1
87.8
99.1
105.
211
3.7
105.
891
.590
.798
.392
.898
.912
3.2
126.
614
4.8
157.
933
1.0
533.
398
.620
1995
.995
.996
.188
.495
.287
.895
.510
6.9
112.
210
9.0
91.8
93.8
93.1
96.9
99.6
118.
413
4.1
131.
116
2.0
320.
756
6.7
98.6
2020
96.0
95.1
98.8
86.7
94.8
88.4
93.8
104.
611
4.9
110.
096
.993
.390
.698
.210
0.2
110.
913
3.0
135.
116
4.1
283.
345
0.0
98.6
2021
95.9
95.7
97.9
88.3
92.6
90.1
93.3
100.
711
3.8
114.
698
.193
.089
.899
.310
1.2
105.
013
1.3
139.
217
6.6
232.
442
0.0
98.6
2022
95.9
95.7
97.1
89.9
90.6
95.1
88.5
100.
110
8.4
116.
510
3.5
93.4
90.2
98.4
97.9
106.
113
0.5
140.
917
5.4
224.
244
0.0
98.6
2023
95.9
96.0
96.4
93.4
89.2
94.8
88.0
99.5
106.
011
4.3
106.
592
.092
.010
0.3
95.7
105.
813
2.2
142.
616
6.9
211.
440
0.0
98.6
2024
95.9
95.9
95.7
95.7
87.5
94.9
88.0
95.8
107.
711
2.9
109.
792
.395
.194
.999
.910
6.5
126.
714
9.2
149.
721
3.9
383.
398
.620
2595
.995
.994
.898
.585
.794
.488
.794
.210
5.2
115.
511
0.6
97.5
94.5
92.4
101.
210
6.7
118.
414
7.5
155.
022
1.1
314.
398
.620
2695
.996
.095
.597
.587
.392
.390
.393
.610
1.4
114.
511
5.3
98.7
94.2
91.5
102.
310
7.6
111.
914
5.8
160.
323
3.3
262.
598
.620
2795
.995
.995
.496
.889
.090
.395
.388
.710
0.6
108.
911
7.3
104.
194
.591
.810
1.1
104.
011
3.2
145.
016
3.3
227.
526
2.5
98.6
2028
95.9
95.9
95.7
96.1
92.4
88.8
95.1
88.1
100.
110
6.4
115.
010
7.1
93.1
93.5
103.
110
1.5
112.
914
5.8
162.
921
1.6
244.
498
.720
2995
.995
.995
.795
.494
.687
.095
.288
.296
.410
8.2
113.
511
0.4
93.5
96.7
97.4
106.
111
3.3
138.
816
8.2
181.
625
5.6
98.7
2030
95.8
95.9
95.7
94.5
97.3
85.3
94.8
88.8
94.7
105.
711
6.1
111.
298
.696
.094
.710
7.2
113.
212
8.8
165.
919
3.9
250.
098
.720
3195
.995
.995
.795
.196
.586
.992
.590
.594
.110
1.8
115.
011
5.9
99.8
95.7
93.8
108.
111
3.8
121.
516
3.6
202.
123
6.4
98.7
2032
95.8
95.9
95.7
95.1
95.7
88.5
90.5
95.5
89.1
101.
010
9.5
118.
010
5.3
96.0
94.0
106.
710
9.9
123.
116
1.8
204.
124
5.5
98.7
2033
95.8
95.9
95.7
95.3
95.0
91.9
89.0
95.3
88.5
100.
310
6.9
115.
610
8.4
94.5
95.8
108.
610
7.0
123.
216
2.0
198.
122
5.0
98.7
2034
95.8
95.8
95.7
95.4
94.2
94.2
87.2
95.4
88.5
96.6
108.
611
4.0
111.
694
.999
.010
2.5
111.
812
3.2
153.
220
0.0
192.
998
.620
3595
.895
.895
.695
.393
.397
.085
.595
.089
.194
.910
6.2
116.
811
2.6
100.
198
.199
.511
2.9
122.
314
0.4
198.
320
0.0
98.6
2036
95.8
95.9
95.7
95.4
93.9
96.0
87.1
92.7
90.9
94.2
102.
111
5.7
117.
210
1.1
97.7
98.3
113.
612
2.1
132.
019
5.3
206.
798
.620
3795
.895
.895
.695
.393
.995
.288
.790
.795
.989
.310
1.3
109.
911
9.3
106.
797
.998
.511
1.7
117.
813
4.1
192.
621
3.3
98.6
2038
95.8
95.8
95.7
95.3
94.2
94.5
92.1
89.2
95.6
88.7
100.
710
7.2
117.
010
9.8
96.5
100.
411
3.5
114.
813
4.5
190.
119
4.1
98.6
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 33 -
Tabl
e 9
PR
OJE
CTED
PO
PULA
TIO
N BY
SEX
AND
AG
E
NORT
H CE
NTRA
L(IN
000
'S)
FEM
ALE
M
ALE
BO
TH S
EXES
AG
E0
- 14
15 -
6465
+TO
TAL
MED
IAN
0 - 1
415
- 64
65+
TOTA
LM
EDIA
N0
- 14
15 -
64 6
5+TO
TAL
MED
IAN
AGE
AGE
AGE
YEAR
2013
5.2
15.8
4.0
24.9
38
.8
5.5
16.3
3.4
25.2
37
.6
10.7
32.1
7.
4
50
.2
38.2
20
145.
1
15
.8
4.
1
25
.0
38.9
5.
5
16
.3
3.
5
25
.3
37.5
10
.6
32
.0
7.6
50.2
38
.3
2015
5.1
15.8
4.1
25.0
39
.1
5.5
16.3
3.6
25.3
37
.4
10.6
32.0
7.
7
50
.3
38.3
20
165.
1
15
.8
4.
2
25
.0
39.2
5.
4
16
.3
3.
7
25
.4
37.2
10
.4
32
.0
7.9
50.4
38
.2
2017
5.1
15.7
4.3
25.1
39
.2
5.4
16.3
3.8
25.5
37
.0
10.4
32.0
8.
1
50
.6
38.2
2018
5.1
15.7
4.4
25.2
39
.1
5.3
16.3
4.0
25.5
36
.8
10.4
32.0
8.
4
50
.7
38.0
20
195.
1
15
.6
4.
6
25
.3
39.1
5.
3
16
.3
4.
1
25
.6
36.7
10
.4
31
.9
8.6
50.9
37
.9
2020
5.1
15.6
4.7
25.4
39
.0
5.3
16.3
4.2
25.8
36
.5
10.4
31.9
8.
9
51
.2
37.7
20
215.
1
15
.6
4.
8
25
.5
38.9
5.
3
16
.2
4.
4
25
.9
36.2
10
.5
31
.8
9.2
51.4
37
.6
2022
5.2
15.5
4.9
25.7
38
.7
5.4
16.1
4.5
26.0
36
.0
10.6
31.7
9.
5
51
.7
37.4
2023
5.2
15.5
5.1
25.8
38
.6
5.4
16.1
4.7
26.2
35
.8
10.6
31.6
9.
7
52
.0
37.2
20
245.
2
15
.5
5.
2
25
.9
38.4
5.
4
16
.1
4.
8
26
.3
35.7
10
.7
31
.6
10.0
52.3
37
.0
2025
5.2
15.5
5.3
26.1
38
.2
5.5
16.0
5.0
26.4
35
.6
10.7
31.5
10
.3
52
.5
36.9
20
265.
3
15
.5
5.
5
26
.2
38.1
5.
5
15
.9
5.
1
26
.6
35.7
10
.8
31
.4
10.6
52.8
36
.8
2027
5.4
15.4
5.6
26.4
38
.0
5.6
15.9
5.3
26.7
35
.8
11.0
31.3
10
.9
53
.1
36.8
2028
5.4
15.3
5.8
26.5
37
.9
5.7
15.8
5.4
26.9
35
.9
11.1
31.1
11
.2
53
.4
36.8
20
295.
5
15
.3
5.
9
26
.6
38.0
5.
7
15
.7
5.
5
27
.0
36.1
11
.2
31
.0
11.4
53.6
36
.9
2030
5.5
15.2
6.0
26.8
37
.9
5.8
15.7
5.7
27.1
36
.2
11.3
30.9
11
.7
53
.9
37.0
20
315.
6
15
.2
6.
1
26
.9
38.0
5.
8
15
.6
5.
8
27
.3
36.4
11
.4
30
.8
11.9
54.1
37
.1
2032
5.6
15.2
6.2
27.0
38
.1
5.9
15.6
5.9
27.4
36
.5
11.5
30.8
12
.0
54
.4
37.3
2033
5.7
15.2
6.2
27.1
38
.3
5.9
15.6
5.9
27.5
36
.7
11.6
30.8
12
.2
54
.6
37.5
20
345.
7
15
.2
6.
3
27
.2
38.5
6.
0
15
.7
6.
0
27
.6
36.8
11
.7
30
.9
12.2
54.8
37
.6
2035
5.7
15.3
6.3
27.3
38
.7
6.0
15.7
6.0
27.7
36
.9
11.7
31.0
12
.3
55
.0
37.8
20
365.
8
15
.3
6.
4
27
.4
38.8
6.
0
15
.8
6.
0
27
.8
37.0
11
.8
31
.1
12.4
55.2
37
.9
2037
5.8
15.3
6.4
27.5
38
.9
6.0
15.9
6.0
27.9
37
.0
11.8
31.2
12
.5
55
.4
37.9
2038
5.8
15.4
6.5
27.6
39
.0
6.0
16.0
6.0
28.0
37
.2
11.8
31.3
12
.5
55
.6
38.0
DATA
SO
URCE
: MAN
ITO
BA B
UREA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TICS
AU
GUS
T 20
15
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 34 -
Tabl
e 10
PR
OJE
CTED
PO
PULA
TIO
N BY
SEX
AND
AG
E
NORT
H CE
NTRA
L(P
ERC
ENT
OF
TOTA
L)
FEM
ALE
M
ALE
BO
TH S
EXES
AG
E0
- 14
15 -
6465
+TO
TAL
0 - 1
415
- 64
65+
TOTA
L0
- 14
15 -
64 6
5+TO
TAL
YEAR
2013
20.8
63.2
16.0
10
0.0
21.9
64.6
13
.5
100.
021
.463
.9
14.7
10
0.0
2014
20.6
63.1
16.2
10
0.0
21.8
64
.4
13.8
10
0.0
21.2
63.8
15
.0
100.
020
1520
.463
.116
.5
100.
021
.5
64.2
14
.3
100.
021
.063
.6
15.4
10
0.0
2016
20.2
62.9
16.8
10
0.0
21.2
64
.1
14.7
10
0.0
20.7
63.5
15
.7
100.
020
1720
.162
.717
.1
100.
021
.163
.9
15.1
10
0.0
20.6
63.3
16
.1
100.
0
2018
20.2
62.4
17.5
10
0.0
20.8
63.7
15
.5
100.
020
.563
.0
16.5
10
0.0
2019
20.1
61.9
18.0
10
0.0
20.7
63
.4
15.9
10
0.0
20.4
62.7
17
.0
100.
020
2020
.161
.418
.5
100.
020
.5
63.1
16
.4
100.
020
.362
.3
17.4
10
0.0
2021
20.2
61.0
18.9
10
0.0
20.6
62.6
16
.8
100.
020
.461
.8
17.8
10
0.0
2022
20.2
60.5
19.3
10
0.0
20.7
62
.0
17.3
10
0.0
20.4
61.3
18
.3
100.
0
2023
20.2
60.1
19.7
10
0.0
20.7
61.5
17
.810
0.0
20.4
60.8
18
.8
100.
020
2420
.159
.820
.1
100.
020
.761
.0
18.3
10
0.0
20.4
60.4
19
.2
100.
020
2520
.159
.520
.4
100.
020
.7
60.5
18
.8
100.
020
.460
.0
19.6
10
0.0
2026
20.2
59.0
20.8
10
0.0
20.8
59
.9
19.3
10
0.0
20.5
59.5
20
.0
100.
020
2720
.358
.521
.2
100.
020
.9
59.3
19
.7
100.
020
.658
.9
20.5
10
0.0
2028
20.5
57.8
21.8
100.
021
.158
.8
20.1
10
0.0
20.8
58.3
20
.9
100.
020
2920
.657
.322
.2
100.
021
.258
.3
20.5
10
0.0
20.9
57.8
21
.3
100.
020
3020
.756
.922
.4
100.
021
.357
.7
21.0
10
0.0
21.0
57.3
21
.7
100.
020
3120
.856
.622
.6
100.
021
.4
57.3
21
.2
100.
021
.157
.0
21.9
10
0.0
2032
20.9
56.3
22.8
10
0.0
21.5
57.1
21
.4
100.
021
.256
.7
22.1
10
0.0
2033
21.0
56.1
23.0
10
0.0
21.6
56
.9
21.5
10
0.0
21.3
56.5
22
.3
100.
020
3421
.055
.923
.1
100.
021
.656
.8
21.6
10
0.0
21.3
56.4
2 2
.3
100.
020
3521
.055
.823
.2
100.
021
.6
56.8
21
.6
100.
021
.356
.3
22.4
10
0.0
2036
21.0
55.8
23.3
10
0.0
21.6
56.8
21
.6
100.
021
.356
.3
22.4
10
0.0
2037
20.9
55.6
23.4
10
0.0
21.6
56
.9
21.6
10
0.0
21.3
56.3
22
.5
100.
0
2038
20.9
55.6
23.5
10
0.0
21.5
57
.1
21.4
10
0.0
21.2
56.4
22
.4
100.
0
DATA
SO
URCE
: MAN
ITO
BA B
UREA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TICS
AU
GUS
T 20
15
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 35 -
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 36 -
APPENDIX D
GLOSSARY
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 37 -
GLOSSARY
Age Specific Fertility Rate. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR) indicate the number of births per woman in a given age group.
Age Specific Survival Rate. For an individual that has survived to a given age, age specific survival rates indicate the probability of surviving at least one more year. By definition, the survival rate plus the mortality rate for a given age equals 1. Generally, age specific survival rates are calculated using a life table.
Base Population. The population provided for use as the starting point for a population projection.
Emigration. Emigration measures the outflow of Canadian citizens or landed immigrants leaving Canada to establish a permanent residence in a foreign country.
Immigration. Immigration measures the inflow of landed immigrants, i.e. people that are not Canadian citizens by birth, but have been granted the right to permanently live in Canada.
International Migration. In this report, international migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between Canada and a foreign country. A distinction is made between immigration, emigration, and other international migration. For the purposes of this report, net international migration is defined to be immigration minus emigration.
Interprovincial Migration. Interprovincial migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between one province or territory and another. In migration measures the flow of individuals to a province/territory, while out migration measures the flow from a province/territory. Net interprovincial migration is defined to be interprovincial in migration minus interprovincial out migration.
Intraprovincial Migration. Intraprovincial migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between regions of the province. In migration measures the flow of individuals to a region, while out migration measures the flow from a region. Net intraprovincial migration is defined to be intraprovincial in migration minus intraprovincial out migration.
Life Expectancy at Birth. Calculated using a life table, life expectancy at birth indicates the average number of years remaining to be lived by an individual just born.
Life Table. A life table is, in essence, one form of combining mortality rates of a population at different ages into a single statistical model. Generally, data for each gender is shown separately on the same table. Life tables are principally used to measure the level of mortality of the population being investigated. The resulting life expectancies at various age groups indicate the average number of years remaining to be lived by those surviving to that age cohort.
Linear Interpolation. A method of filling in missing data, linear interpolation assumes straight line growth between two given data points.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 38 -
Median Age. The median age of the population in a certain year is the age at which half the people are older, and half are younger.
Natural Increase (Natural Change). The natural change is defined to be the number of births minus the number of deaths. In Manitoba, this usually results in a positive number, or natural increase.
Net Temporary Emigration. Net temporary emigration represents the variation in people living temporarily abroad that have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada.
Net Non-permanent Residents. The number of net non-permanent residents is equal to the difference in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates. The majority of non-permanent residents are students and temporary workers, while the remainder are refugee status claimants, people with ministerial permits and non-Canadian born dependants of refugee claimants or permit holders.
Other International Migration. Other international migration is comprised of the net change in non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants.
Provincial Nominee Program. The Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program is a free economic immigration program that expedites the processing of skilled workers planning to stay in Manitoba as permanent residents, by selecting nominees based on local labour market needs.
Raking. When life tables are constructed, having an age group with zero deaths will result in an error. Raking is used to take a very small number of deaths from surrounding age groups, and add them to age groups with zero deaths. This eliminates the zeros from the death data with as little impact on the life table as possible.
Regional Cohort Component Model. The Regional Cohort Component Model is used to project the births, deaths and population for a given region on a single year of age and gender basis. Specific equations, in combination with assumptions made about the components of demographic change such as fertility, mortality and migration, are used to project regional data. Provincial totals for births, deaths and population are then aggregated from the regional results.
Returning Emigrants. Returning emigrants are people that have previously emigrated and then subsequently returned to Canada.
Total Fertility Rate. The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of children a woman could be expected to have if the current age specific fertility rates (ASFR) continued over her entire reproductive period. By convention, fertility rates are calculated for the female population between the ages of 15 and 49. By definition, the total fertility rate for a given region is equal to the sum of the age specific fertility rates for that region.
Total Net Migration. Total net migration is defined to be the sum of net intraprovincial, net interprovincial, net international and other international migration.
North Central - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 39 -