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Mobile Communication Today and Tomorrow
William H. DuttonQuello Professor of Media and Information Policy
Michigan State University
Presentation to Conference on Comparative Communication Research, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 7 February 2015.
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Acknowledgements: Co-Authors
Ginette Law, Darja Groselj, Frank Hangler, and
Gili Vidan
Oxford University Consulting
The Quello Center at MSU
CHENG Lin; ZHI Hui; LU Xiaobin; ZHAO Qiyong, and WANG Bin
Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd.
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Mobile Futures
Policy and Regulatory
Trends
Social Research
Technical-Industry
Developments
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Synthesis of Research
• Analysis of Global Survey Research
• Longitudinal Analysis of UK OxIS Data
• Qualitative Semi-Structured Interviews
Field Research
Approach to this Global, v Comparative, Study
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What is Mobile Communication?
Not New
Pedestrian
Innovative
• The Titanic
• 1918 experiments
• Mobile Phone
• Texting
• Mobile Internet
• Cloud Computing
• Internet of Things & Wearable
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‘… service enabled by a wide array of electronic devices and networks across a range of locations’
• Feature Phone
• Smartphone
• Tablet, Reader, Laptop, Watch, …Devices:
• Licensed Spectrum
• Unlicensed Spectrum, Bluetooth, Whitespace, WiFi, Wired and Wireless, …
• Cloud computing – data warehouses
Network
Infrastructures
• On the Move
• Car, Home, Work, Conference, …Locations
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Mobile
Device
LocationNetwork
Creating Growing Array of ‘Mobile Communication’Technologies
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Changing Ecology of Mobile
Increasingly Converging Technology
Increasingly Diverse Ecology
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Use of Multiple ICTs by World Regions
Global Internet Values Survery, 2012, N=8,241
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Mutually Transformative
Mobile Internet
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Transforming the Internet
Search
Video
Mobility
• Always AvailableSocial Media
Big Data
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Is Mobile Opening or Closing?
Opening
Multiple Devices
Specialized Uses
Closing
Vertically Integrated Chain
(OS, Apps)
Preinstalled Apps v Open
Search
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Equalities?
Closing Divides
More Individuals w
Phones
More with Access to the
Internet
Creativity of Users
Creating New Divides
MulitpleDevices
Multiple Infrastructures
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Mobile Broadband and PC Penetration (Source: Robert Kenny, Communication Chambers, ITU Data)
CanadaGermany
Hungary
Japan
Slovenia
Switzerland
R² = 0.4435
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
Mo
bile
BB
su
bs
pe
r 1
00
inh
abit
ants
, 20
12
PC Penetration, 2000 (% of HH)
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Key Social Implications / Issues
Increasing Centrality of Mobile: What’s Essential?
Equality and Empowerment?
New Normal, or Tools-Symbols of Status & Identity
Social Contact and Interpersonal Communication
Privacy
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Four Future Scenarios
The Seamlessly Bounded Ensemble (Ensemble)
The Unified Hub (Hub)
Connected Accoutrements (Accoutrements)
The Exposed Device-Free Realm (Device-Free)
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Technology in the Hands of Society
• Dualities of Mobile: Together, Apart
• The Open Ended, Unpredictable Future of Mobile Communication
• Responses to Emerging Issues, such as Privacy
– The Unpredictable Consumer-User-Producer
– Potential Shifts in Policy and Regulation
• Global Economic Shifts