Download - Module 2 -MPCA System Effectiveness Process
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Module 2
System Effectiveness Evaluation Process
A standard sequence of steps to evaluate system effectiveness regardless of analysis
methodology
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Module 2 - 2
System Effectiveness Process
VA Team
Selection
and
Preparation
Target and
Threat
Characterization
Facility and
System
Characterization
Vulnerability
Search and
Scenario
Development
System
Effectiveness
Evaluation
System
Upgrade
Evaluation
VISA
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Module 2 - 3
VA Team Selection
VA Core Team Members
Vulnerability analyst
MC&A specialist
Physical protection specialist
Facility operations
Performance testing
Protective force
VA Team Selection Criteria
Experience
Team diversity
Integration
VA Support Team Members
Facility management
PP maintenance
MBA custodians
MC&A measurements
Nuclear material handlers
Shipments
Waste management
Safety
Nuclear criticality
Other managers and experts as
needed
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Module 2 - 4
VA Preparation
• Gather documentation Engineering Drawings & Blueprints
Photographs
Performance Assurance Information
Facility Operating Procedures
Current MC&A Procedures
Emergency Procedures
Security Alarm Test Reports & Procedures
Security Alarm Maintenance Procedures
• Tour the site General Site
Buildings
Processes
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Module 2 - 5
Target Characterization
• Identify targets to be evaluated: Nuclear materials
• Theft Targets Discrete items
Bulk materials
• Strategies Abrupt Theft
Roll-up
Protracted Theft
Sabotage Targets
• Radiological
• Facilities and Equipment
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Module 2 - 6
Target Characterization (continued)
• Material quantity
• Material locations and flow through the
facility
Identify vulnerabilities and determine attack
opportunities
Consider rollup
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Module 2 - 7
Target Characterization (continued)
• Rollup The accumulation of smaller quantities of special
nuclear material to a target category
MPC&A Measures may be less restrictive for smaller quantities
• Physical protection
• Surveillance measures
• Access controls
• Inventories (less frequent, smaller samples)
Determine if credible
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Module 2 - 8
Target Characterization (continued)
• Document Target Material Descriptions:
Location
Outer and inner container descriptions (size, weight)
Nuclear material description (size, weight,
configuration, portability, enrichment, etc.)
Accessed/secure frequencies
How often material is removed from container
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Module 2 - 9
Target Prioritization
Least Protection
Most Protection
More attractive
Less
attractive
Smallest quantities Largest quantities
Level of protection is consistent with consequence of loss.
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Module 2 - 10
“Less Than Target Quantity”
• Based on incidents reported to IAEA, only a few involved seizures of kilogram quantities of weapons-usable nuclear material. Most involved very small quantities.
(See Appendix A for details.)
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Module 2 - 11
Threat Characterization
• Design Basis Threat
Defines the threat MPC&A systems must perform
against
Based on threat assessment
Periodically reviewed and revised
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Module 2 - 12
Threat Characterization (continued)
• Threat definition
Types of adversaries
• Insiders
• Outsiders
• Insider/Outsider collusion
Range of adversary tactics
Capabilities
Motivation
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Module 2 - 13
Facility Characterization
Process • Philosophy
Document major assumptions Methodical and comprehensive
• Steps Gather information
• Documentation • Interviews
Obtain or develop facility schematics for analyzing possible adversary paths and target(s)
Characterize MPC&A measures Identify facility states (shifts, hours of operation,
configuration)
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Module 2 - 14
Facility Characterization (continued)
• Gather information related to key targets
Site, facility, and MPC&A system components
Physical protection plans and procedures
Security posts, plans and procedures
Material control and accountability
plans/procedures
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Module 2 - 15
Facility Characterization (continued)
• Information sources: Facility tours
Architectural diagrams
Interviews with management and workers
Safeguards and security and material control and accountability plans
Maintenance and operating procedures
Safety analysis reports
Previous vulnerability assessments, audits, surveys, etc.
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Module 2 - 16
Facility Characterization (continued)
Detect & Assess
• Intrusion Sensing
• Alarm Communication
• Alarm Assessment
• Entry Control
Delay
• Passive Barriers
• Active Barriers
Respond
• Engagement:
– Communication to
Response Force
– Deployment of
Response Force
• Neutralization • Measurements
• Radiation Monitoring
• Inventory
MPC&A Functions
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Module 2 - 17
Facility Characterization (continued)
• Protective Force
Staffing levels and locations for all different
operating shifts
Equipment (weaponry, ammunition, body armor)
Communications equipment (radios, pagers,
cellular telephones)
Training and capability
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Module 2 - 18
Vulnerability Search and Scenario Development
• Exploit potential vulnerabilities
• Develop for each specific adversary type
Insider scenarios
Outsider scenarios
Insider/Outsider collusion scenarios
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Module 2 - 19
Insider Scenario Development
• Define personnel types
Access to facility and target locations
Hands-on
System maintenance
Supervision
Material movement
Shipment requirements
Remove material
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Module 2 - 20
Insider Scenario Development (continued)
• Group Insiders Combine personnel types
• Same authorized access
• Authority over protection
• Knowledge
• Similar safeguards performance
Group Attributes • Hands-on
• MC&A records
• Transfer material
• Alarms
• Security
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Module 2 - 21
Insider Scenario Development (continued)
• Range of insider tactics Exploit knowledge
Abuse authority
Tamper with components
Shield material
Falsify records
Hide material
Create emergency
Defeat delay
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Module 2 - 22
Outsider Scenario Development
• Determine needed information
• Plan approach to facility
`Foot, vehicle, or airborne
• Entry method
Deceit
Stealth
Overt action
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Module 2 - 23
Outsider Scenario Development (continued)
Attack Plan
• Develop Adversary Force Organization
• Identify Equipment and Weapons
• Consider Pre-Attack Activities
• Develop Concept of Operation
• Develop timeline
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Module 2 - 24
Outsider Scenario Development (continued)
Example Adversary Team
Team 1
Sniper Team A Breach Team B Cover Team C
West Sniper 1 South Sniper 2 Fence/Wall
Breacher 1 MG/RPG 2 Driver 1
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Module 2 - 25
Outsider Scenario Development (continued)
• Facility entry considerations Doors / surface / windows
Barrier penetration
Explosive entry or hand/power tools
• Material Acquisition
Target task time
• Tie-downs
• Containers
How much material and what type
Weight