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Monitoring Malaria from Operational Satellites
Felix KoganNOAA/NESDIS/STAR
COLABORATORSWei Guo – IMSGAl Powell - STAR
Dan Mandl – NASAAlejandro Deeb – World Bank
Leny Roytman, Atiqure Rahman, Mahomed Nizamudin – NOAA/CRESTRamesh Dhiman – Malaria Institute, INDIA
Guido Van Langenhove – Met Services, NAMIBIAJoerg Szarzynski – UN SPIDER
Marco Vargas – STAR
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OUTLINE
• Background• Malaria and Environment• AVHRR Sensor & Data• Vegetation Health (VH) System• Data Applications & Interpretation• Callenges
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Global Burden of Infectious Diseases Caused by Arthropod Vector
Global Burden of Infectious Diseases Caused by Anthropod Vector Diseases Disease Burden (% from
total) Mortality (% from total)
Malaria 78 89 African trypanosomiasis 3 3 Lymphatic filariasis 10 0 Dengue fever 1 2 Leishmamiasis 5 5 Chaga disease 1 1 Onchocerciasis 2 0 Based on Disability Adjusted Life Years (DAILY) – the number of healthy years of life lost due to premature death and disability (World Health Organization 2002, The World Health Report, Geneva).
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WORLD Malaria Facts
• 107 world countries are affected• 3.2 billion people (48% of the world) are at risk• 300–500 million annual malaria cases • 1.5-3 million people die annually (4-5% of global fatalities)
• Children (C) & Pregnant women (PW) vulnerable(C): One million dies annually; (PW): 10% maternal death
• P. falciparum and P. vivax cause of death (one million deaths caused by P. falciparum only)
• Area: Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East & part of Europe
• Expenditure: 40% of Africa’s health• Sub-SAHARA Africa contributes: 60% of global, 75% of P.
falciparum & 80% of deaths cases; Every 30 sec a child dies
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MALARIA & ENVIRONMENT
• CLIMATE & LANDSCAPE determine distribution of mosquito-borne diseases
• WEATHER affects timing, duration, area and intensity of outbreaks
• WARM & WET surface stimulates mosquito’s activities to carrying the disease to people
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Correlation between malaria cases & weather data, TANZANIA, Hai District
MONTH Rains Tmax Tmin
May 0.24 0.45 0.45
Jun 0.38 0.36 0.29
Jul 0.41 0.29 0.30
Aug 0.29 0.42
AFRICA: GTS weather station network
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THEORYTypical Vegetation Reflectance
VIS reflectance depends on
CHLOROPHYLL
CAROTENOID
NIR reflectance depends on
WATER CONTENT
CELL STRUCTURE
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NDVI & ReflectanceCover Type Ch1 Ch2 NDVI
Vegetation: Dense .050 .150 0.500
Medium .080 .110 0.140
Light .100 .120 0.090
Bare Soil .269 .283 0.025
Clouds .227 .228 0.002
Water .022 .013 -0.26
NDVI= (Ch2-Ch1)/(Ch2+Ch1)
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NDVI from MSG-2 SEVIRIJune 2007
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NDVI & Rainfall (% mean),
SUDAN (1984-1987)
95%115%
73%
51%
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NDVI in Dry & WetEcosystems
NDVImax indicates HEALTHY vegetationNDVImin indicates UNHEALTHY vegetation
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AVHRR-based VH IndicesVegetation condition index (VCI), values 0 - 100
VCI=(NDVI-NDVImin)/(NDVImax-NDVImin)
NDVImax, and NDVImin – climatology (1981-2000 maximum and minimum NDVI for a pixel;
Temperature condition index (TCI), values 0 - 100
TCI=(BTmax-BTmin)/(BTmax-BTmin)
NDVImax, and NDVImin – climatology (1981-2000 maximum and minimum NDVI for a pixel
Vegetation Health Index (VHI), values 0 – 100
VHI=a*VCI+(1-a)*TCI
0 – indicates extreme stress
100 – indicates favorable conditions
MOISTURE
THERMAL
VEG. HEALTH
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Vegetation Health (VH) System
• Satellites: NOAA• Sensor: AVHRR • Records: 30-year• Characterize: LAND SURFACE
GEENNESS (Chlorophyll)MOISURE (Vigor) THERMAL (Temperature)
• Assess:VEGETATION HEALTH CUMULATIVE impact “have memory” from EXTREME STRESS to FAVOURABLE
• IssuedWEEKLY 4 km PIXEL ALL LANDSCAPE
• Products: VEGETATION HEALTH, MOISTURE (VCI), THERMAL (TCI) CONDITION
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Vegetation Health Interpretation
Project Lead: Felix Kogan Sponsor: NOAA/NESDIS
Significance: Vegetation Health estimates vegetation condition – a proxy for drought, crop & pasture production, fire, malaria; http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH
.
Vegetation Health, August 26 2008
Western USAVegetation stressImpact: Fire
Central USAHealthy vegetationImpact: Good crops
ArgentinaVegetation StressImpact: Drought
Southern AfricaHealthy VegetationImpact: Malaria
KazakhstanVegetation stressImpact: Bad crops
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2008 VH s-c AFRICA
Angola
Zaire
Zambia
Botswana
Healthy condition- Started in May - Expanded in July & August
VH products - Detect- Diagnose- Forecast
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Strategy: MONITORING RISK AREAAUGUST 26 2008
Malaria risk maps identify priorityareas to fight epidemics
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Strategy: MONITORING RISK AREA & INTENSITY
AUGUST 26, 2008
Malaria risk maps identify priority areas & additional resource distribution to fight epidemics effectively
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Strategy: WEATHER PROXYAUGUST 26, 2008
Malaria risk maps identify priorityareas and additional resource needed to fight epidemics effectively INTENSIVE MALARIA
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VALIDATION: VH & Malaria SENEGAL
Healthy Vegetation(1993, 1995)4-5 times more malaria cases thenstressed vegetation
Stressed Vegetation
Healthy Vegetation
Vege
tatio
n H
ealth
(VH
)
Monthly M
alaria Cases
Climate controls selection of VH strategy
NO Malaria if dry condition in semi-arid climate
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0
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
1989-90 1991-921993-94
1995-96 1999-2000
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
MONTHS
Month wise, year wise cases of Plasmodium vivax and P.falciparum recorded in study villages between 1989-2000.
Positive P.vivax P.falciparum
MA
LAR
IA C
ASE
SM
ALA
RIA
CA
SES
Singh et al., 2004.Trop. Med. Int. Hlth
Plasmodium vivax & P. falciparum in village studies, INDIA
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Breeding Sites
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Labour Camp
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Treated Bed Nets Evaluation
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Validation: VH & Malaria in INDIAKarnataka, Raichur
VCI
Rat
io M
alar
ia C
ases
VCI < 40 (dry) –Lower AMI
VII > 60 (wet) –Larger AMI
Rainfall 600 mm/year
Dryer
Wetter
(Correlation of Malaria Cases (Annual Malaria Incident (AMI)/Trend of AMI) with Moisture Index (VCI))
VH is a good proxy for estimation of vegetation health & malaria epidemic
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VALIDATION: Malaria (%)Observed vs. VH-Simulated
Gujarat INDIA
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
% o
f Mal
aria
observedsimulated
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VALIDATION: Malaria observed vs. VH (TCI)-simulated Caprivi NAMIBIA
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Malaria Cases (%)Choco COLOMBIA
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Correlation: Malaria Cases (%) with VCI & TCI
Choco COLOMBIA
TCI
VCI
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Moisture
Thermal
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Strategy: PREDICTIONKisii District Hospital KENYA
Malaria Cases
Vegetation Health
(1) High VH (green circle) occurs 1-4 months prior to the malaria peak (red circle)
(2) VH correlates with malaria cases & can be used as
epidemic predictor
(3) In 1998,
malaria peak shifted to spring -similarly VH
Malaria & VH1996 1997 1998 1999
- VH provides up to 4 months advance malaria warnings - The warnings must be area specific
Num
ber of Cases
Less Malaria
More Malaria
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VH-based Malaria Risk
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/vh_browse.php
2010
2009
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Combat Malaria Programs
• UN Malaria Envoy• Roll Back Malaria Partnership• Global Fund to Fight Aids, TB & Malaria• Presidential Malaria Initiative • Melinda & Bill Gates Foundation• US Congress (2009-2013)
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PMI Program
• Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS)• Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN) incl. LLITN• Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ATC)• Intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant
women (IPTp)• Improving infrastructure and technology
Interview to RBM by Rear Admiral T.Ziemer (7/24.2008)
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PMI: Goals & Countries
SENEGAL MALI LIBERIA GHANA BENIN ETHIOPIA KENYA UGANDA RWANDA MALAWI TANZANIA MOZAMBIQUE ZAMBIA ANGOLA MADAGASCAR
Area – 3,243,000 sq. mi. People – 343,000,000
June 2005, President G.W. Bush announced a $1.2 billion aid package for AFRICA: Reduce 50% malaria death in 15 countries
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2003 Malaria PMI CountriesEndemic Area
POPULATION AFFECTED- Rwanda 1.5 mil. ( 9% pop.) - Uganda 13.0 mil. (41% pop.)
MALARIA CASES are SPECIFIC to- Country -Affected area- Population- Weather - Climate- Malaria Intensity
VH PROVIDES COMBINE ESTIMATION OF THESE CONDITIONS in ENDEMIC AREAS
VH diagnoses malaria risk over a country & an area advising on cost-effective resource distribution
http://www.who.int
Mal
aria
Cas
es(M
illio
ns) M
alaria % from
country population (grey)
Tanzania
Rwanda
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VH-Malaria Risk Area as a predictor, 2003Endemic Area
TANZANIA -25-30% malaria risk area, Sep-Jan
- April-June provided 3-4 months advance malaria indication
RWANDA-<5% malaria risk area, Sep-May
- Pre-season malaria risk area was low indicating no malaria risk
* VH provides malaria risk area for an entire country * Pre-season VH forecasts malaria epidemics
Aff
ecte
d A
rea
(%)
Area – 10,000 sq mi Popul. 9,700,000
Area – 369,000 sq mi Popul. - 40,400,000
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VH Malaria Risk Area (%) by Intensity UGANDAAREA - 94,000 sq mi. PEOPLE – 30,900,000
:
VH (a) Provides risk area & epidemic intensity(b) Validates effectiveness of fighting measures
Aff
ecte
d ar
ea (%
)
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GOALS
•Early detection of environmental conditions conducive for mosquito development & spread of malaria using operational satellites
•Monitoring Malaria Start/End, Area, Intensity & Impacts
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1987 & 1988 Dengue Fever & VHVietnam, Thailand, Malaysia
NUMBER of CASES
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NOAA Capabilities (Examples)KENYA: RVF (Rift Valley Fever) &
Vegetation Health (VH)
1997-98VH>80 -FAVORABLE condition –Intensive RVF epidemics
1996-97VH<20 - Severe DROUGHT – NO RVF epidemics
NOAA has capability to identify & monitor other mosquito-born diseases
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Challenges in Monitoring Malaria COLOMBIA
Satellite data are proxy requiring calibration & validation
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CHALLENGES in treatment
• Increasing mosquitoes resistance to insecticides• Parasite resistance (undermine malaria control)• Changes in mosquitoes behavior due to treatments• Changes in ecology due to human activities• Diminishing number of effective insecticides• No alternatives for DDT and pyrethroids• Limited evidence of the treatment impact
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Web
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/index.php
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Thank You