MONSOON EXPERIMENT IN SOUTH AMERICA (MESA)
An internationally coordinated, joint CLIVAR – GEWEX program aimed at providing:
1.a better understanding of the South American monsoon system and its variability,
2.a better understanding of the role of that system in the global water cycle
3. improved observational data sets, and
4.improved simulation and prediction of the monsoon and regional water resources.
Carolina Vera
Univ. of Buenos Aires
MESA SWG Chair
SALLJEX Objectives
•Diurnal variations of the SALLJ
•Detailed description of the 3-dimensional structure of the SALLJ
•The relationship between MCCs and the SALLJ
•Description of the heat low over the Chaco and NW Argentina
SALLJ Science goalTo understand the role of the South American low-level jet in moisture and energy exchange between the tropics and extratropics and related aspects of regional hydrology, climate and climate variability
PLATIN 2004 Activities
The CLIVAR-GEWEX PLATIN SSG: La Plata Basin is a climate-hydrology system with components that are potentially predictable with useful skill from seasons in advance, and whose variability has important impacts on human activities.
PLATIN is intended to advance in the understanding of those components.
*GEF PROJECT
*LPB CSE
MESA NEW ORGANIZATION
MESA Scientific Working Group
VAMOS Project Office
…LPB
Implementation Steering Group
MESA Scientific Working Group
Carolina Vera, Univ of Buenos Aires, Argentina (Chair)
Tercio Ambrizzi, Univ. de São Paulo, Brazil
E. Hugo Berbery, Univ of Maryland, USA
Leila Vespoli de Carvalho, Univ. de São Paulo, Brazil
Alice Grimm, Univ Federal de Paraná, Brazil
Vern Kousky, NCEP/NOAA, USA
Brant Liebmann, Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA, USA
Julia Nogues-Paegle, Univ of Utah, USA
José Marengo, CPTEC, Brazil
Ricardo Matano, Oregon State Univ. USA
Carlos Nobre, CPTEC, Brazil
Celeste Saulo, Univ of Buenos Aires, Argentina
Anji Seth, IRI, USA
Rafael Terra, Univ de la República, Uruguay
Ed Zipser, Univ of Utah, USA
MESA IMPLEMENTATION
HYPOTHESIS:The SAMS provides a physical basis fordetermining the degree of predictability on short- and long timescales over the region.
MESA PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS (PRA):
Better understanding andsimulation of:
• diurnal and mesoscale processes (PRA-I);
• intraseasonal variability (PRA-II)
• interannual and longer time variability (including ACC issues) (PRA-III);
• monsoon evolution and variability (PRAs-I, II, III).
MESA scientific issues discussed in VPM7 & Baltimore meeting
A better undestanding and improved simulation is expected on:
• Diurnal cycle and seasonal evolution of the SAMS• 3-dimensional description of the low-circulation east of the Andes.• Mesoscale convective processes • Role of aerosols from biomass burning in SAMS
• Dynamics of the SA see-saw pattern• ITCZ-SACZ interaction • Influence of MJO on SAMS• Relative roles of internal vs forced low-frequency variability
• Land surface forcing – Impacts of land use change• Role of remote and local SST – South Atlantic• Global response to SAMS forcing
• Sources and limits of predictability on SAMS region
Additional MESA modeling issues discussed in VPM7 & Baltimore meeting
Model simulation improvements are needed in Model simulation improvements are needed in reproducing:reproducing:– the seasonal cycle of SAMS– Diurnal Cycle of circulation and precipitation– Monsoon onset– Mean and variability of the SACZ.
Additional MESA modeling issues
– To what extent do model systematic errors affect seasonal predictability in the region?
– Why do models have deficiencies in reproducing the SACZ? Missing coupled A-O mechanisms in the AGCMs?
– Will seasonal predictability change as a function of land cover changes?
– Can soil moisture memory help for seasonal predictions for South America? Need to improve soil moisture obs.
– Dealing with the complexities of orography. Higher resolution models and/or dowscaling with regional models?
– Atlantic SST forcing: (i) understanding tropical versus extratropical contributions.
– How can intraseasonal variability in the SAMS can be improved in the models?Can instraseasonal oscillations be a source of short term climatic predictability?
– At the end, can we expect that model improvements and observational techniques will improve predictability in regions such the highly populated and economically important one in SE South America?
– - Better seasonal climate predictions, more accurate projections of climate change scenarios for the future?
MESA modeling activities defined in VPM7
2004:– Impact of improved soil moisture initializations on precipitation
simulation– Impact of improved initial conditions enhanced by SALLJEX data– Data Assimilation including SALLJEX data
2005:– Intraseasonal variability during SALLJEX period.– Seasonal mean representation of the SALLJEX period.– SALLJEX data assimilation in the CDAS analysis (and GDAS?)– …
2006:– …
1st MESA SWG MeetingWednesday 9th afternoon:
•Session 1: Review of the scientific basis for MESA
•Session 1a:PRA-1: Diurnal and Mesoscale Variability in the SAMS region
Thursday 10th, morning:
•Session 1b: PRA-2: Intraseasonal variability in the SAMS region
Thursday 10th, afternoon:
•Session 1c: PRA-3: Interannual and longer-time variability in the SAMS region.
Friday 11th, morning:
•Session 2:Additional MESA Modeling
•Session 3:MESA Applications. PLATIN
Friday 11th, afternoon:
•Session 4:Enhanced observation activities & Field campaigns in MESA
•MESA SWG Executive Session
1st MESA SWG Meeting
•Moderators and rapporteurs of the plenary sessions:
•Session 1a: PRA-1: Diurnal and Mesoscale Variability in the SAMS region
•Moderator: Ed Zipser, Rapporteur: Rafael Terra
•Session 1b: PRA-2: Intraseasonal variability in the SAMS region
•Moderator: Julia Nogues-Paegle, rapporteur: Leila Carvalho
•Session 1c: PRA-3: Interannual and longer-time variability (including ACC) in the SAMS region.
•Moderator: P. Silva Dias, Rapporteur: A. Grimm
•Session 2: Additional MESA modeling issues
•Moderator: I. Cavalcanti, Rapporteur: Anji Seth
•Session 4: Enhanced observation activities & Field campaigns in MESA
•Moderator: H. Berbery, Rapporteur: C. Vera
1st MESA SWG Meeting
•Plenary sessions:
•Brief summary of the session by the moderator
•Discussion of the main scientific questions to be addressed in each of the PRAs
•Discussion of the diagnostic, modeling, and field campaign activities needed to address them
VAMOS A TRABAJAR!
LET’S START TO WORK!