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Statistical Validation of Moore’s Law
Dr Sanjoy Sanyal; MBBS, MS, MSc (RCSEd), ADPHAProfessor, Course Director of Neuroscience,Consultant Surgeon, Medical Informatician
(Originally published in 2009, updated in July 2014 with an addendum in last slide about recent developments)
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Co-founders of Intel®
Gordon E Moore Bob Noyce
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Birth of Intel®
• Gordon E. Moore and Bob Noyce wanted to name their new company ‘Moore Noyce’
• But it was already trademarked by a hotel chain
• So they settled for ‘Intel’, acronym from ‘Integrated Electronics’
• Moore was at helm of Intel from 1975 to 1987
• The rest is history
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Mo
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Moore’s Law• “Moore’s Law” states the number of transistors
on a chip roughly doubles every two years• “Moore’s Law” states that transistor density on
integrated circuits doubles about every two years.
• Moore’s Law isn’t a law at all • Moore’s prediction in 1965 popularly came to
be known as “Moore’s Law”• It is a statement that microprocessor design is
going to carry on improving at a steady rate
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Moore’s Law Philosophy
• Intel® executives have turned ‘Moore's Law’ into a ‘mantra’.
• Intel® has hammered Moore’s Law into its corporate culture
• It constantly provides a marketing buzzword• It gives engineers ever-moving, tangible
standard to reach with each new model.• That is the real genius behind the concept
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In subsequent slides, one needs to focus on the exponential graphs and their respective
equations
But, first let us see some theoretical data, as postulated in Moore’s Law…
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Th
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a
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Based on Theoretical Data (previous slide)
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Based on Theoretical Data
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Dat
a fr
om
Inte
l®
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Dat
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Inte
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004
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Intel® 2004 Data (previous slide)
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2004 Data
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Inte
l® 2
007
Dat
a
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data (previous slide)
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Next 5 slides, also from Intel®
2007 data, highlight some Moore’s Law variants
Focus on chip clock speed and chip manufacturing technology (chip thickness)
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Based on Intel® 2007 Data
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Next 5 slides have been sourced from Wikipedia and Intel®
websites, to underscore their similarity with previous derived
graphs
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Wikipedia
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Wikipedia
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Wikipedia
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Wikipedia
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Intel®
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Genius of Moore
• Genius of Moore’s Law concept• Engineering genius and hardcore geek • Moore was one of few people to earn the
respect from geeks and chief executives. – Engineers and executives are often at
loggerheads. – But Moore was an icon for both groups– This truly underscores his genius
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Moore’s Law Drinking Game
If you play the Moore’s Law Drinking Game
at an Intel Developer Conference you will
be unable to walk out by the end of the
session
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Addendum – Recent Developments
• Since the last 1 year or so, computing power has not increased exponentially
• Perhaps because transistors (and chips) have reached their limit of miniaturization
• The next big step is likely to involve–Graphene: Single atom thick layer of Carbon
to make chips–Quantum Computing and Photons of Light