Download - Murray patterson
Ecological Economics Dimension
of Manaaki Taha Moana
Matariki Ahunganui Symposium Tauranga 4 July 2014
Presentation by: Professor Murray Patterson School of People, Environment and Planning Massey University
Outline of Presentation
Ø What is Ecological Economics?
Ø Progress so Far (Please stop me talking here)
Ø Future work Planned
What is Ecological Economics?
Neoclassical Economists
Ecological Economist
Goods and Services
Labour
$ Purchases
$ wages and salaries
Circular Flow Model of the Economy: Neoclassical Economics
Goods and Services
Labour
$ Purchases
$ wages and salaries
Circular Flow Model of the Economy: Neoclassical Economics
Goods and Services
Labour
$ Purchases
$ wages and salaries
Ecological Economics Model of the Economy
Resources Water, Energy,
Minerals, Biomass etc.
Pollutants CO2,
Wastewater, Contaminants, Solid Wastes
etc.
Pollutants CO2,
Wastewater, Solid
Wastes etc.
Socio-Economic System
Biosphere
Resources Pollutants
Ecosystem Services
Ecological Economics Model of the Economy #2
• Supply and Demand Analysis – aimed at defining the equilibrium price
• Strong Belief in Market solutions to societal problems
• Methodological Monism
• Not one over-arching theory – draws on a variety of biophysical and social theories
• Cautious about market solution, stronger belief in participatory democracy
• Methodological Pluralism Integrative
Neoclassical Economics Ecological Economics
• Supply and Demand Analysis – aimed at defining the equilibrium price
• Strong Belief in Market solutions to societal problems
• Methodological Monism
• Policy Goal = Maximise Economic Efficiency
• Technologically optimistic
• Trade-offs
• Not one over-arching theory – draws on a variety of biophysical and social theories
• Cautious about market solution, stronger belief in participatory democracy
• Methodological Pluralism Integrative
• Policy Goals= Sustainability, Economic Efficiency and Social Equity
• More cautious about the role of Technology
• Limits (Ecological such as carrying capacity)
Neoclassical Economics Ecological Economics
PROGRESS
SO FAR
- Mediated Modelling of the Economy - Detailed Analysis of Tauranga Economy - Tentative Work on Value of Ecosystem Services
Mediated Modelling Using Stella
Natural Capital
Natural Capital
Population
Population
Eco Sy stem Serv ices
Eco System Services
Economic Prof ile of Tauranga
Economic Profile ofTauranga
External Factors
External Factors
Fresh Water…nt to Harbour
Fresh Water from Catchment to Harbour
Actions
Actions
Tauranga Harbour and its catchment -
The Tauranga Harbour is a unique estuary in the Bay of Plenty. It is highly productive for food production. Various iwi have lived in the area for centuries. The Harbour is of critical cultural and spiritual significance for iwi. Since the 1950's European settlers developed the area through forestry, port activities and increasingly through horticulture and dairy farming, attracting peoples residing and visiting the area. This has changed the land use and cover in the catchment considerably. The natural capital, underpinning the ecosystem services the Tauranga Harbour provides for all, is under pressure. At the same time, the flow of goods and services measured in economic terms, have increased. How are these trends interconnected? This model aims to re-tell the story and support the understanding among a group of local stakeholders, based on whose dialogue this model was constructed.
Model overview
Overview of Mediated Model
Population in Tauranga
+
Population change
History population~
Population Growth Rate due to attractiveness
Population increase
Population Pressure
Ecosystem value of Tauranga harbour catchment
GDP Tauranga & Western Bay of Plenty
Maximum urban area in ha
Migration due to GDP~
Urban density
Migration due to value of ES~ tourist year equivalents GDP per capita
Population
Stella Population Module
Sea Grass in ha
Change in Wetlands and Saltmarshes
Indigenous Forest on steep slopes in ha
Introduced Forest in ha
Pasture in ha
Horticulture and Cropping in ha
Bare Earth in ha
Urban and Infrastructure in ha
Rest of Tauranga Harbour area in Ha
Conv horti to Esturine wetlands
urban growth
bare earth growth
Wetlands Palustrine and riparian in ha
Mangroves in ha
Conversion harbor to mangrove
Conversion Introduced Forest to Bare Earth
Wetlands Estuarine and Saltmarshes in ha
Margrove growth rate 2
Conversion seagrass to harbour
Seagrass death rate
Conv Wetland to Pasture
Conv Pasture to Cropping
Conv horti to palustrine wetlands
Conversion Pasture to Indigenous Forest
Conversion Indigenous Forest to Introduced Forest
Conversion from Pasture to Introduced Forest
Scrubs
Conv scrubs to pasture
Conv Scrub ton intro forest
Grassland
Conv grass to pasture
Wetland restoration rate~
Other natural capital
Noname 2
Forest restoration rate~
Land use and land/sea cover history (red) and modelled changes in the catchment. The data somewhat matches the landuse categories identified by stakeholders, but not conclusive.
Stella Land-use Module
Mediated Modelling (Stella)
Advantages • Developed through Stakeholder Participation (often the process more important than the end-product)
• Reasonably Transparent, and Good Stakeholder Buy-in
• Good at modelling broad relationships and how they change over time (10-20 year time frame). Good for scoping purposes.
Mediated Modelling (Stella)
Advantages • Developed through Stakeholder Participation (often the process more important than the end-product)
• Reasonably Transparent, and Good Stakeholder Buy-in
• Good at modelling broad relationships and how they change over time (10-20 year time frame). Good for scoping purposes.
Dis-Advantages • No spatial detail (most of the issues we are dealing with have a strong spatial component) • Many of the variables in the Tauranga model are ‘soft’ and not scientifically
rigorous –eg, indexes are often
• Much of the data is broad-brush –eg, 3-4 land-use-classes (42 land-uses-classes in V2)
Economic Analysis of the Tauranga Economy
§ Detailed Analysis of 48 Sectors
§ 2001-2012 time - series § Strong emphasis on Input-output analysis (Inter-relationships between sectors in the economy)
§ Each sector characterised in terms § Employment § GDP contribution, growth rate over last decade, § exports (internationally, inter-regionally), § labour productivity, § location quotient (degree of regional specialisation)
§ Labour market, Housing Market, Population Analysis.
Structure and Dynamics of the Tauranga Economy Manaaki Taha Moana Research Monograph # 14
3.45 Education
Description ANZSIC Codes covered:
• P8410 – Preschool Education • P8421 – Primary Education • P8422 – Secondary Education • P8423 – Combined Primary and Secondary Education • P8424 – Special School Education • P8431 – Higher Education (e.g. University) • P8432 – Technical and Further Education • P8440 -‐ Other Education (e.g. Ballet School, Drama School, Music Teaching).
Main commodity supplied in TCE:
• Education
Economic Overview Education employed approximately 6.6% of total employment in the Western Bay of Plenty sub-‐region. Education is not a strong point of the region, perhaps because it does not have its own university, and therefore employs a smaller percentage than the New Zealand average of 8.0%.
The largest education provider in the TCE is Bay of Plenty Polytechnic with 6,702 students enrolled. Other education providers are Te Wangana o Aotearoa, Bethlehem tertiary institute, The University of Waikato campus in Tauranga, and a number of high schools, Intermediates, Primary and early childhood centres.
2010 Figures: Employment = 4,307 Rank = 5th Average Employment Growth Rate = 4.3% p.a GDP = $244 million Rank = 12th Interregional Exports = $0 International Exports= $17m Location Quotient = 0.91 Labour Productivity= 42.72 Value-‐Added Multiplier = 1.93
Natural Capital
Natural Capital
Population
Population
Eco Sy stem Serv ices
Eco System Services
Economic Prof ile of Tauranga
Economic Profile ofTauranga
External Factors
External Factors
Fresh Water…nt to Harbour
Fresh Water from Catchment to Harbour
Actions
Actions
Tauranga Harbour and its catchment -
The Tauranga Harbour is a unique estuary in the Bay of Plenty. It is highly productive for food production. Various iwi have lived in the area for centuries. The Harbour is of critical cultural and spiritual significance for iwi. Since the 1950's European settlers developed the area through forestry, port activities and increasingly through horticulture and dairy farming, attracting peoples residing and visiting the area. This has changed the land use and cover in the catchment considerably. The natural capital, underpinning the ecosystem services the Tauranga Harbour provides for all, is under pressure. At the same time, the flow of goods and services measured in economic terms, have increased. How are these trends interconnected? This model aims to re-tell the story and support the understanding among a group of local stakeholders, based on whose dialogue this model was constructed.
Model overview
R a n k (2010)
Highest Employing Sectors
Rank (2010)
Highest Contribution to GDP
Rank (2010)
Top Exporting Sectors
Rank (2010)
Highest Location Quotient
1
Retail Trade 1 Construction 1 Other Food Manufacturing
1 Services to Agriculture, Hunting and Trapping
2 Health and Community Services
2 Wholesale Trade 2 Wholesale Trade 2 Petroleum and Industrial Chemical Manufacturing
3 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
3 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
3 Air Transport, Services to Transport and Storage
3 Water and Rail Transport
4 Construction 4 Health and Community Services
4 Dairy Product Manufacturing
4 Horticulture and Fruit Growing
5 Education 5 Retail Trade 5 Horticulture and Fruit Growing
5 Electricity Generation and Supply
6 Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars
6 Electricity Generation and Supply
6 Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing
6 Other Food Manufacturing
7 Wholesale Trade 7 Ownership of Owner-Occupied Dwellings
7 Retail Trade (?) 7 Road Transport
8 Services to Agriculture, Hunting and Trapping
8 Real Estate 8 Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars
8 Fishing
9 Road Transport 9 Other Food Manufacturing
9 Water and Rail Transport
9 Health and Community Services
10 Horticulture and Fruit Growing
10 Finance 10 Wood Product Manufacturing
10 Real Estate
Services to agriculture, hunting and trapping 2.72 Petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing 2.66 Water and rail transport 2.07 Horticulture and fruit growing 1.82 Electricity generation and supply 1.80 Other food manufacturing 1.76 Road transport 1.46 Fishing 1.33 Health and community services 1.31 Real estate 1.24 Wood product manufacturing 1.23 Local government administration services and civil defence 1.21 Retail trade 1.20 Construction 1.19 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 1.14 Machinery and equipment manufacturing 1.06 Structural, sheet, and fabricated metal product manufacturing 1.05 Air transport, services to transport and storage 1.02 Transport equipment manufacturing 1.02 Furniture and other manufacturing 1.01
Personal and other community services 0.95 Accommodation, restaurants and bars 0.94 Wholesale trade 0.92 Education 0.91 Other farming 0.88 Business services 0.84 Services to finance and investment 0.80 Beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing 0.73 Rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing 0.73 Cultural and recreational services 0.71 Finance 0.69 Textile and apparel manufacturing 0.62 Forestry and logging 0.55 Communication services 0.52 Mining and quarrying 0.52 Printing , publishing and recorded media 0.51 Central government administration, defence, public order and safety services 0.51 Insurance 0.26 Gas supply 0.25 Livestock and cropping farming 0.24 Basic metal manufacturing 0.20 Dairy cattle farming 0.20 Meat and meat product manufacturing 0.06 Dairy product manufacturing 0.06
Higher concentration the national average Lower concentration the national average
Ecosystem Services in Tauranga
Harbour
Very Tentative Valuation And what could be done, based on our Nelson Work (2015)
Table 1 Estimate of the Value ($) Ecosystem Services Derived from the Tauranga Harbour_________________________________________________________
Ecosystem TypeArea (hectares) $/ha/yr
Total Value of Ecosystem Services ($ million/year )_____________ __________ __________ ___________________
Mangroves 92 23,893 2Seagrass 4,440 45,451 202Other 15,468 16,792 260Total 20,000 23,187 464_________________________________________________________
Economic Value – Profit of the Port of Tauranga = $45 million/year – Knock on Effects in the local Economy = about $90million/year – Total Economic Impact of the Port = $135 million/year
Value of Harbour Ecological Services (initial estimate) – $464 million/year
• Ecological Services of Seagrass = – trapping and stabilizing sediments – nutrient recycling – creation of high primary productivity – provision of habitat for animal and plant species.
• Loss of Value Seagrass – 44.4 km2 (1959) to 29.3 km2 (1997) – $54 million/year a loss – (Port of Tauranga Profits = $45 million/year)
Intertidal
Seagrass
Coastal Waters
Salt Marshes $90 mil/yr
Estuaries
Sand Beaches & Dunes $516 mil/yr
Intertidal
Reefs & Lagoons ($17 mil/yr)
Rapid Assessment of : Economic Value of Coastal Ecosystem Services: Nelson Bays
Total Value= $3,285 million/yr (significant double-counting)
GDP Nelson Economy = about $3,500 million/yr
$1,461 million/yr
$445 million/yr
$432 mil/yr
$322 mil/yr
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
$/ hectare / year (Coastal Ecosystem Services in Golden and Tasman Bays)
Example: ‘Detailed Inventory’ Results
Future Work
– Bringing all of the strands together
Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment:
‘From Mountains to Sea’
Catchment Land-Use Model
50+ land use classes
48 interconnected sectors
Species Response Curves
Cumulative Impacts Model
Ecology of the Harbour
Tauranga Economy
For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses
Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)
10 x 10 metre resolution
Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment:
‘From Mountains to Sea’
Catchment Land-Use Model
50+ land use classes
48 interconnected sectors
Ecology of the Harbour
Tauranga Economy
Energy Land
For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses
Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)
10 x 10 metre resolution
Resources Freshwater, Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass
Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins
Supporting Services Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic
Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio - prospecting Ø Clean Water
Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering
Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual Ø Non - Use Values (Option, Bequest, Existence) Ø Educational, Scientific Ø Amenity
Security Ø Personal Safety Ø Security from Disasters Ø Secure Resource Access Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food Ø Shelter Ø Access to Goods
Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity
Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect Ø Ability to Help Others
Human Wellbeing Ecosystem Services Framework
Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment:
‘From Mountains to Sea’
Catchment Land-Use Model
50+ land use classes
48 interconnected sectors
Ecology of the Harbour
Tauranga Economy
For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses
Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)
10 x 10 metre resolution
Supporting Services Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic
Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio - prospecting Ø Clean Water
Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering
Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual Ø Non - Use Values (Option, Bequest, Existence) Ø Educational, Scientific Ø Amenity
Security Ø Personal Safety Ø Security from Disasters Ø Secure Resource Access Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food Ø Shelter Ø Access to Goods
Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity
Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect Ø Ability to Help Others
Human Wellbeing Ecosystem Services Framework
Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment:
‘From Mountains to Sea’
Catchment Land-Use Model
50+ land use classes
48 interconnected sectors
Ecology of the Harbour
Tauranga Economy
Energy Land
For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses
Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)
10 x 10 metre resolution
Resources Freshwater, Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass
Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins
Cultural Health Index
GDP Other Indicators
Supporting Services Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic
Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio - prospecting Ø Clean Water
Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering
Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual Ø Non - Use Values (Option, Bequest, Existence) Ø Educational, Scientific Ø Amenity
Security Ø Personal Safety Ø Security from Disasters Ø Secure Resource Access Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food Ø Shelter Ø Access to Goods
Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity
Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect Ø Ability to Help Others
Human Wellbeing Ecosystem Services Framework
Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment:
‘From Mountains to Sea’
Catchment Land-Use Model
50+ land use classes
48 interconnected sectors
Ecology of the Harbour
Tauranga Economy
Energy Land
For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses
Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)
10 x 10 metre resolution
Drivers
Actions
Resources Freshwater, Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass
Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins
Cultural Health Index
GDP Other Indicators
Supporting Services Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic
Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio - prospecting Ø Clean Water
Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering
Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual Ø Non - Use Values (Option, Bequest, Existence) Ø Educational, Scientific Ø Amenity
Security Ø Personal Safety Ø Security from Disasters Ø Secure Resource Access Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food Ø Shelter Ø Access to Goods
Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity
Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect Ø Ability to Help Others
Human Wellbeing Ecosystem Services Framework
Thank you
Neoclassical Economics
Environmental
Economics
Resource Economics
Ecology
Ecological Economics Model #3
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
$/ hectare / year (Coastal Ecosystem Services in Golden and Tasman Bays)
Example: ‘Detailed Inventory’ Results
Net Primary Production
Water Regulation
Waste Treatment
Food Production
Aesthetic & Recreational
Climate Regualtion
Disturbance Regulation
Raw Materials
Water Supply
Gas regulation
Salt Marshes, Economic Value of Ecosystem Services, Nelson Bays
Total = $115 mil/year
Base land use maps
• Developed methodology
• Compiled test datasets
• Programmed statistical analysis • Rural – Agribase, LCDB, business frame • Urban – statistical approach based on clusters analysis
and logistic regression
• Convert from vector to raster
• Validate with Manaaki Te Awanui
How does it work? Land use
Time Loop
&
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& interaction weights
Suitability
&
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Transition Rule Change cells to the land use for which they have the highest transition potential until regional demands are met
Zoning
&
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Land use at time T+1
Transition Potentials
=
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Stochastic perturbation