Download - Net Energy Next Energy by Ron Swenson
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Net Energy Next Energy
by Ron Swenson
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Swenson Curve To avoid
deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.
www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
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0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment
begin investment before decline
Net Energy Production
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
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A flurry of books: What’s going down…
www.HubbertPeak.com/Library
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Okay, we know what’s going down …
But what’s coming up?
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Thomas Edison “I'd put my
money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com
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The Party's Over
“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”
Richard Heinberg
www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
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Beyond Oil
“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...”
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
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I thought we were talking about Energy!?
So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?
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Oil, Jihad & Destiny
“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”
Ronald R. Cooke
www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist
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The Long Emergency “… solar
power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel …
James Howard Kunstler
www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2
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“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...”
Pierre Chomat
Oil Addiction: The World in Peril
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
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Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
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Energy State and Quality (Grade)“In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.
[] “The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low.
“Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.”
Cutler Cleveland
Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City.
… and what is the premise of converting solar field energy into fuel in the first place?
… unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology.
Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field
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Thermodynamics of Coal
Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil
EROI = 927 ~ electric quality
1 BOE
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Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?
Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination
EROI = 10±
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EROI = 4 12 ~ electric
Thermodynamics of Nuclear
Plus …
• Depletion
• Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process
• Waste guard for 10,000+ years
… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?
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Thermodynamics of Tar Sands
Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses
natural gas
EROI = 3Why bother?!
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Thermodynamics of Hydrogen
Am I missing something?!
EROI = -½
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Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be bootstrapped
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
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Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV
• EROI: 6 months
• Life: 20 years
EROI = 40120 ~electric
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Thermodynamics of Wind
• EROI: 3 months
• Life: 20 years
EROI = 80240 ~ electric
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Back to State & Quality (grade) …How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors?• Time / sustainability
• oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality.• solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense.
• Land use / ecological footprint• Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. • Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick.• It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts.
•Security / Energy drain on future generations• Nuclear Power M.A.D.: ERoEI goes astronomically negative.• Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy?• Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology.
Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field
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Next Energywww.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Since oil is big in the transportation sector…
… a short history lesson.
How did transportation transform? • from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to• liquid fuels (oil)
And where do we go from here?
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Lest we forget …They did bring coal to Newcastle.
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...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …
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No joke!
The original buggy whip protest
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The Horseless Carriage
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From GridLock to Gas Lines
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Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
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Back to solid fuels?
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The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
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Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
Touch?
… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.
See?
A match made in heaven.
Lift?
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The Electric Rail
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Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.ecotopia.com/ST
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Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
0
5
10
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25
30
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45
50
OilCoa
lGas
Fission
Biomas
s
Hydro
electr
ic
Solar,
wind, g
eoth
ermal
0.5%
Source: BP & IEA
2004
0
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OilCoa
lGas
Fusio
n / F
issio
n
Biomas
s
Hydro
electr
ic
Solar,
wind
, geo
therm
al
2050
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
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PV: The Growth Industry
OilOil
PVPV
Oil declines at 4%/yr
PV increases at 50%/yr
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Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
“Think TeraWatts”
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Taking it one step further …
• You may think I’m pushing solar?
• Yes and no. The main point is …
• Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI…
• And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.
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ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)
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Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…
www.ecotopia.com/ST
• ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport…
(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)
• Fuels will remain essential for:
• Airplanes
• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)
• Agriculture
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Colin Campbell
“Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.”
1996
www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
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Solar Industry Response?
www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2
Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%
How to get there? • Federal government procurement
$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by
2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,
support, increase, strengthen, grow…”
Inadequate
InadequateInconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
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Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)
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The conclusions are simple:
• We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital
resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.
• Then we must act quickly with resolve.
Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?
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Next Energywww.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.
Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.