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New Grocery Format s :Walm a rt & Beyond
September 3, 2009
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3
Today’s Panel and Webinar Log ist ic s
To ask a question:
– Click on the cartoon dialogue icon inthe lower right hand corner of your
screen – Type your question in the box
– Send your question to the host
Al Meyers
Senior Vice President
Sandy [email protected]
Senior Vice President and Manager of the
Food/Drug/Mass, Wal-Mart World™ and
Target programs of the Retail Forward
Intelligence System™
Jennifer Halterman, Senior Consultant with
Retail Forward specializing in the food, drugand mass segments
Audio information Toll-free from within the U.S. or
Canada: (866) 775-2265
Toll call from anywhere: 1 (281) 913-0854
Passcode: 6143554009
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No More One Size Fi t s Al l
From 2006 Retail Perspectives
“Supermarkets: One Size Does Not Fit All”
— Retail Forward
“Expect the supermarket landscape to look vastly different in 2010 than it does today. The cookie-cutter approach—to store format, layout,
product mix, merchandising, etc.— is out of date. Supermarkets are actively engaged in broadening their store portfolios to meet different shopper needs and shopping
occasions.”
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Bui ld ing a Por t fo l io o f Form at s
Convenience
Extreme-value/price-
impact
Upscale/fresh/healthy
Ethnic specialty
Food/generalmerchandise combos
Online
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Supermark et Indust ry Is Look ing for Grow t h
Supermarket Industry Sales Growth and Forecast(in $ Billions)
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce and Retail Forward
Nominal SalesReal (2005)
Sales2003–2008 3.9% 0.6%2008–2014F 2.3% -0.3%
Compound Annual Growth Rate
Real sales growth remains flat
Nominal Sales
Real (2005) SalesForecast
$406$418
$435$448
$469
$492 $494$506
$521$536
$550$565
$428 $427$435 $439 $443 $440 $433 $433 $433 $432 $432 $431
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
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Espec ia l ly as Cent er St ore Is Pressured
Supermarket Category Sales Compound Annual Growth, 2002–2007
Sources: Progressive Grocer and Retail Forward
1Includes: grocery food, grocery non-food and health and beauty care.
Deli
+1.4%
Frozen &Ice Cream
+1.1%
Dairy
+2.6%
Produce
+3.8%
HMR
+3.5%
Center Store1 0.4%
In-storeBakery
+1.2%
Pharmacy
+5.2%
Meat Poultry& Seafood
+0.9%
GeneralMerchandise
+6.4%
40% of store sales
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High Frequenc y Merc handise Is Sold Everyw here
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Shopper s Shi f t Food Shopping Pat t erns
Weekly Shoppers—Supermarket/Food Retailers(Percentage of U.S. primary household shoppers who shop weekly at format)
2007–08Difference
2005–08Difference
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, October 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008
5%
5%
8%
9%
28%
41%
6%
5%
8%
28%
45%
4%
4%
6%
24%
31%
4%
3%
7%
7%
25%
37%
9%6%
Health/natural supermarkets
SuperTarget
Specialty food stores/ neighborhood specialty markets
Extreme-value/
warehouse supermarkets
Walmart Supercenter
Conventional supermarkets
2005200620072008
-3.6 +4.1
-0.2 +3.4
+0.9 +2.2
-1.0 +1.3
-0.5 +1.9
-1.2 +1.2
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Shopper s Are Eat ing Out Less
Tactics Shoppers Are Using to Save Money on Food/Grocery
25%
40%
Buying more products to
cook from scratch more
often
Eating out at restaurants
less frequently or eating
out at less expensive
restaurants
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2009
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So They Want I t A l l When Groc ery Shopping
Fast
Fresh
Affordable
Grocery Shopping Factors(Percentage of U.S. primary household shoppers who strongly agree/agree with statement)
Prefer buying prepared or conveniencefoods rather than cooking from scratch
Like trying out or shopping in newfood stores
Often try new food products seen inthe grocery store
Want to get in-and-out fast whenfood shopping
24%
26%
28%
37%
51%
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2009
Don’t buy fresh/healthy foodsbecause too expensive
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Shoppers Are Ready t o Try New Food St ores
Shoppers Are Ready to Shop the New Breed of Small Food Stores*
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
64% 30% 6%Unnamedsmall-format food store
Definitely/probably
will shop
Might or might not shop Definitely/probably
will not shop
*Concept defined to include the following features:
- Specializes in fresh, prepared foods, e.g., "ready-to-eat" or "ready-to-heat and eat" meals- Carries a basic assortment of grocery staples at competitive prices- Carries gourmet, ethnic and organic specialty products- Neighborhood location- Is easy to shop, e.g., plenty of parking, not too big, smaller than the typical supermarket- Has a quick checkout
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And They’re Wi l l ing t o Give Walm art a Try
Shoppers Are Ready to Shop the New Breed of Small Food Stores*
Source: Retail Forward ShopperScape™, February 2008
55%
64%
29%
30%
16%
6%
Walmartsmall-format food store
Unnamedsmall-format food store
Definitely/probably
will shop
Might or might not shop Definitely/probably
will not shop
*Concept defined to include the following features:
- Specializes in fresh, prepared foods, e.g., "ready-to-eat" or "ready-to-heat and eat" meals- Carries a basic assortment of grocery staples at competitive prices- Carries gourmet, ethnic and organic specialty products- Neighborhood location- Is easy to shop, e.g., plenty of parking, not too big, smaller than the typical supermarket- Has a quick checkout
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I t ’s About T im e, and T iming
From 2004 report“Wal-Mart 2010”
— Retail Forward
“By 2010, Wal-Mart will have a broader portfolio of formats to satisfy more consumer needs and shopping occasions.
“Retail Forward believes several venues ... hold potential for Wal-Mart going forward.”
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Walm ar t Supercent er Is H it t ing t he Wal l
Walmart Supercenter vs. Conventional Discount StoreUnit Growth and Projection
Sources: Company reports Retail Forward projections
344441
564721
888
1,0661,258
1,471
1,713
1,980
2,256
2,612
2,840 2,9202,980 3,030
1,960 1,921 1,8691,801
1,7361,647
1,568 1,4781,353
1,2091,075
971891
827 777 737 707 682
2,447
2,740
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F
Walmart SupercentersConventional Walmart discount stores
Forecast
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Uni t Ex pansion Is Slow ing Dow n
+ 157 – 177+ 222+ 305 – 330+ 332 – 340+ 335 – 365Total U.S. Expansion
+ 15 – 20+ 21+ 20 – 30+ 31 – 33+ 30 – 40Sam's Club
+ 17+ 23+ 15 – 20+ 11 – 12+ 25 – 30Neighborhood Market/Grocery formats
0+ 2+ 5 – 10+ 13 – 15+ 40 – 45Walmart conventional stores
+ 125 – 140+ 166+ 190 – 200+ 277 – 280+ 240 – 250Walmart Supercenters
20092008200720062005Unit Growth Plans
Planned Number of New U.S. Wal-Mart Stores
Sources: Company reports
2005 2009Planned new Walmart Supercenters +250 +125
Planned total new U.S. units +335–365 +157–177
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Sm al l Form at s Wi l l Change t he Food Landsc ape
Source: TNS Retail Forward
Trader Joe’s
Fresh & Easy (Tesco)
The Fresh Market
Sprouts Farmers Market
Sunflower Farmers Markets
Famima!! (FamilyMart)
Giant Eagle Express
Marketside (Walmart)
The Market by Von’s (Safeway)
Urban Fresh by Jewel (Supervalu)
Heartland Pantry (Hy-Vee)
FRESH (Brookshire Grocery)
Schnucks Culinaria
Giant To Go (Giant Food/Ahold)
Small-Format Grocers(illustrative list, not all-inclusive)
Source: yelp.com
Retail Forward
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Walm ar t In t roduces Market s ide
Four Marketside stores
Open October 2008
Phoenix area
– Chandler – Gilbert
– Mesa
– Tempe
Retail Forward
Source: www.marketside.com
At Marketside, we provide fresh,innovative answers to the daily
question, “What’s for dinner tonight?”
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Prepared Foods Selec t ion Serves as Test Lab
All photos by Retail Forward
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Serv ic e Sel ls Fresh Com ponent
All photos by Retail Forward
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Basket Pr ice Bragging Rights
Source: Marketside April 29, 2009 Weekly Flyer
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April 29, 2009 ad (Cinco de Mayo) May 20, 2009 ad (Memorial Day)
Market s ide St ar t s t o Leverage Walmar t Brand
Source: Marketside April 29, 2009 Ad Source: Marketside May 20, 2009 Ad
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A Miss : Edi t ed Assor tm ent , but St i l l Too Much
All photos by Retail Forward
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A Miss : Pot ent ia l t o Siphon Of f Superc ent er Tr ips
Marketside
Walmart Supercenter
All photos by Retail Forward
Walmart Supercenter
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Walm ar t Do ing More t o Cat er t o Loca l Mark et s
2008: Opens Hispanicsupercenter in Garland, Texas
– Expanded produceselection
– More ethnic grocery brands
– Fresh prepared specialtyfood items
Recent introductions
– Supermercado de Walmart
• Houston, April 2009
• Phoenix, June 2009
– Mas Club• Houston, August 2009
Retail Forward
Source: Más Club
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Storefront and Exterior, Includes Outdoor Eating Area
All photos by Retail Forward
Superm erc ado Ins ide Ent ranc e Suggest s Fresh
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Storefront and Exterior, Includes Outdoor Eating Area
All photos by Retail Forward
In-St ore Bak ery and Tor t i l la-Mak ing
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Ful l -Serv ic e Meat /But c her Shop
All photos by Retail Forward
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But Sam e Walm art Case-Ready Meat s Too
Retail Forward
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In -St ore Prepared Foods “La Coc ina” Is Busy
All photos by Retail Forward
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Hispanic Grocery Brands Merchandised Side-by-Side with U.S. BrandsFresh Over Frozen: Only One Frozen Ais le
Retail Forward
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St ore Is Fi l led w i t h H ispan ic Spec ia l t ies
All photos by Retail Forward
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Hispanic Grocery Brands Merchandised Side-by-Side with U.S. BrandsLarge Baby Area for Young Grow ing Fam i l ies
All photos by Retail Forward
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Bi l ingual Sign ing and Fam i l iar Pr ic e Message
All photos by Retail Forward
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Good Idea , But St i l l Feels Very “ Walm art -y”
All photos by Retail Forward
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Upsca le Produc t s Appeal to H igher Inc om es
All photos by Retail Forward
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Displays Tai lored t o Af f luent Surroundings Too
Retail Forward
C
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In t roduc ing Warm er Color Palet t e in Food
All photos by Retail Forward
T t i C M h di i Ef f t
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Test ing Cross-Merc handis i ng Ef for t s
All photos by Retail Forward
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P id Sh i t h M l S l t i
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Prov ides Shoppers w i t h Meal Solut ions
All photos by Retail Forward
Anot her New Conc ept : One ais le $1 or less
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Anot her New Conc ept : One a is le . $1 or less .
All photos by Retail Forward
Out of St oc k s Suggest Dem and for $1 I t em s
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All photos by Retail Forward
Out -of -St oc k s Suggest Dem and for $1 I t em s
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Fresh Bak ery and Peet ’s Cof fee
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Fresh Bak ery and Peet s Cof fee
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And Many Convenienc e St aples Too
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And Many Convenienc e St aples Too
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Giant Eagle Int roduc es Ex press Conc ept
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Giant Eagle In t roduc es Ex press Conc ept
2007: 1st opened inPittsburgh
Now plan 3–5 more
14,000 sq. ft.
Combines elements of:
– Supermarket
– Drug store – Convenience store
Retail Forward
Som e Trad it iona l Depar tm ent s
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p
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Lot s of Easy-Prep and Ready-t o-Eat Opt ions
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y p y p
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Tem pt ing Ready-t o-Go Meals
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Retail Forward Source: Giant Eagle, Inc.
Fi l l s a Convenient Good-for-You Fresh Nic he
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User-Fr iendly Del i Feat ures K iosk
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Giant Eag le Launc hes Upsc a le Market Dis t r ic t
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2007 opening
2 Pittsburgh locations – 3rd unit planned in
Columbus, Ohio
Differentiates on freshand gourmet – Prepared foods
– Grab-and-go – Gourmet/specialty
All photos by Retail Forward
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Mark et -l ik e Feel in Produc e Depar t m ent
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Foc us on Fresh Prepared and Gourm et
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Lo t s of Made-t o-Orde r and Grab-and-Go Opt ions
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Nat ural /Organ ic Offer Rivals Whole Foods
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K roger Opens Mor e Fresh Fare St ores
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Opening more units asFresh Fare
Focus:
– Gourmet/specialty
– Fresh, prepared
– Convenience andstock-up
Targets upscale and busy,time-pressed shoppers
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Inv i t ing , Upsca le Am bience and At m osphere
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At t rac t ive Disp lays , Convenienc e Of fer
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Prepared Foods a Plent y
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Target In t roduc es PFresh Prot ot ype
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Convenienc e Selec t ion of Produc e
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Meat Case, L im i t ed Prepared or Tak e-out
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Big Lo ts Int roduc es “ Nex t Genera t ion” Layou t
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Food/Consum ables Is t he Foc al Point
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Bold Signing and Wider Ais les Greet Shoppers
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Toys “ R” Us Debut s “ R” Mark e t
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Retail Forward
Feat ures an Ex panded Groc ery Assort m ent
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Ot her Househo ld Essent ia ls Are Of fered Too
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Baby Basi c s Moved Up Front for One-St op Shop
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Ex pec t More Food, Food Everyw here
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Sprouts Farmers Market
Sunflower Farmers Markets
Add photo of:Giant To Go
Other?
Shoppers Want I t Al l . .. When They Want I t
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More
Service
For Less
Risk
EffortTime
Price
ConvenienceConsistency
Quality Selection
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2009 St ra t eg ic Out look Conferenc e
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Explore the short-term and long-termimplications of key macroeconomic issuesfor the retail sector.
Discover crucial challenges that lie ahead
in the post-recession retail landscape. Findout how retailers' and manufacturers'growth strategies will need to align.
Leverage the proliferation of socialnetworking and the evolution of in-store
technologies to create more meaningfuland actionable dialog with target shoppers.
Take a tour of new retail business modelsand innovations.
Maximize your digital marketing strategytoday to win online tomorrow.
Membership includes 10 seats!
WHEN AND WHERE:
Sept. 10, 2009—Rosemont, ILSept. 30, 2009—NYC
Oct 15, 2009—TorontoOct. 27, 2009—Bentonville, AR