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- UNIVERS1TY OF C AU FORNIA-
U C_ School of Engineering UnMrs11y orCahrormo
Agricultural Issues Center
~ucDAVIS CENTER FOR
WATERSHED SCIENCES
Health and Economic Impacts of the 2012-2014 California Drought:
Lessons Learned Josué Medellín-Azuara
Acting Associate Professor, UC Merced Associate Director, UC Agricultural Issues Center
Drought and Public Health Symposium Sacramento, California, February 4, 2019
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9 Omi 50 100 150
I I I I 0 km 80 160 240
.,.
Average annual runoff (land area)
■ 66%(20%)
■ 24%(20%)
9%(20%)
1%(10%)
■ 0.1%(30%)
"i
-~~ \ .
san D1egq
8 0ml I
0km
.,. 50 100 150 I I I
80 160 240
■ State project
■ State and federal project
■ Federal project
■ Local project
Urban area
Agriculture! o reo
""-" River
( Flow direction
• Pump/,tor•g~ facility
• Pumping facility
Reservoir volume (taf)
6 0-100
l:, 100-500
/j. 500- 1,000
£:.,. 1.000-5,ooo
L 5.ooo+
Annual delivery (taf)
0-50
51-150 = 151-300
=:J 301- 1,500
Hydroelect ric powerhouse c=::> 1,501-3,100
....
Water Resources in California
Hanak et al. (2011) Managing California’s Water
2
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100
95
90
85
80 -;;;-.,
75 .c u C
70 -C 0 65 -:. ·;;_ 60 u t 55 Q. >,
50 £ C 0 45 ::;;
1 40 ·.; 0 ., 35 ,. -:. 30 :i E 25 :::, u
20
1 5
1 0
5
0
North Sierra Precipitation: 8-Station Index, April 26, 2017 __:::...-----MSC - Mount Shasta City
~
SHA - Sha. sta Dam • ~MNR - Mineral
• ~ORD - Quincy • • BCM-BrushCreek
...,..-----sRR - Sierraville RS • ..,,t---BYM - Blue Canyon
... ~PC F - Pacific House
Percent of Average for this Date: 206° Current Daily Precip (wettest): 92.8
)U1
1982-1983 (2nd wettest 88
_5
1997-1998
~---------- 82.4
2015-2016 Dail Preci 57.9
Average (1922-1998) 50.0
2014-2015 Daily Preci 37.2
19.0
Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 Sep1 Oct1 Water Year (October 1 - September 30)
C 0
:E ·;;_ ·.; t Q. .. .. ., >-.. ., -:. s: oi 0 I-
California is a land of climate extremes that change quickly
Oroville dam spillway 2017
2016
Monticello dam spillway 2015
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The 2012-2016 drought Some Sectors affected
• Agriculture • Urban water use • Ecosystems • Small rural water
systems • Recreation • Forests • Hydropower
Some Health and Employment Implications
• Stress due to insecure employment and Income
• Relocation and childcare • Air quality effects • Dry wells • Concentration of
contamination in wells
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San Joaquin Valley California
25 25
20 20 ■ Food and beverage processing
+-' 15 +-' 15 ■ Crop and animal C C production (].) (].) (.) (.) ,._ ,._ Q) Q)
a.. 10 a.. 10
5 5
0 0 Employment Revenues GDP Employment Revenues GDP
Agriculture is the main economic driver in the San Joaquin Valley
Hanak et al. 2017 Water stress and a changing San Joaquin Valley
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Water Amount (MIiiion Acre-feet)
- Groundwater Replacement
- Surface Water Loss
Sacramento, South Delta 1·19 and East of Delta .. '
-2 .29 ~
- { San Joaquin River Basin 1 ·■' South of Delta
- • -1.84
s; • -~,~·" ~ fo~ce Lake Basia
"-, • -4.57
Centra10,0Q2 Coast ~ 05
South 0.000 Coast """o.oo1
South Inland
0.018 --0.011
Pacific Ocean
0 30 60 120 km I I I I I I I I
""r-----------.... Legend
0 Hydrologic Regions
Increase in Total Pumping Costs
(in $ thousands)
O o-3,800
■3,801 -12,800
■12,801-29,169
■29,170 -47,000
. 47,001 • 100,000
N
A
Recent droughts highlight the role of groundwater in agriculture
http://droughtimpacts.ucdavis.edu Also see: Why California needs better groundwater management Medellin-Azuara et al. (2015) Hydrogeology Journal 6
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~ .............
( )
l _)
< )
2015 Estimated Agricultural Drought Impacts Description Impact Base year Percent Drought water shortage (million acre-ft) 8.7 26.4 33%
Groundwater replacement (million acre-ft) 6.0 8.4 72%
Net water shortage (million acre-ft) 2.7 26.4 10%
Drought-related idle land (acres) 540,000 9 million* 6%
Crop revenue losses ($) $900 million $40 billion 2.3%
Dairy and livestock revenue losses ($) $350 million $13 billion 2.7%
Costs of additional pumping ($) $590 million $780 million 75.5%
Net revenue losses ($) $1.8 billion 54 billion rev. 3.3%
Total economic impact ($) $2.7 billion NA NA
Direct job losses (farm seasonal) 10,100 200,000# 5.1%
Total job losses 21,000 NA NA
* NASA-ARC estimate of normal Central Valley idle land is 1.2 million acres. # Total agriculture employment is about 412,000, of which 200,000 is farm production.
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90%
80%
-V)
Q) 70% ::l C ::c < Q) 0 l'D > 60% ::I,~ Q)
er:: -· .... n D.I =- er V) .... -
50% C l'D ..Q -,; Ill 0 l'D ... .....,
!20 -0 40% z ...... 0 C ::::s Q) I
u 30% ~
I... '"" l'D Q) l'D a..
20%
10%
0%
0
r=;· D.I
'Tl
'"" C ;:;: Ill
Cumulative Jobs and Revenues
_ n 0 '"" n :::r D.I '"" C. Ill -
0 ,:, 3 :a· D.I D.I .... n 0 :::r er Ill
Other Field, Grain, and Feed Crops
~-cummulative Jobs
~ Cummulative Revenues
2000 4000 6000 8000
Cummulative Irrigated Crop Area (1000 Acres)
10000
Most agricultural income and employment is in fruits, nuts and vegetables
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Agricultural employment mostly growing, especially for contract labor
Agricultural Employment in California 450,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Aver
age
Mon
thly
Em
ploy
men
t (jo
bs)
Crop and Animal Production Services to Agriculture
• • • • • • • •
: : I ■ I I : :
--... Total Agricultural 50,000
-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Author calculations with data from the Employment and Development Department
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a nt & Season a l Farm Worker Emergency Dro ught Relief Needs Assessment Report
Prepared for: California Department of Community Se1vices & Development Prepared by: La Cooperativa de Campesina, Profile Research & Marketing, Inc. Date: November, 2015
Not Govered
Legend
Food Boxes Delivered
• 0 - 15,000
• 15,001 - 35,000
• 35,00 1 - 55,000
• 55,001 - 75,000 - 75,001 - 88,896
Estimate Total Job Losses
(Full time and Seasonal)
D o
- 1 - 9 □ 10 - 280
- 281 - 4,114
- 4,115 - 6,796
Not Covered
South Coast
Job Losses and Boxes Delivered by Emergency Services
• Food boxes were delivered to regions with job losses
• Tulare Lake Basin is the most seriously affected
10
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• Reported Dry Water Supply Well
This graphic displays locations ofreported
dry water supply wells, as collected and
located by the Governor's Office of
Planning and Research as ot: 04-27-15.
Many of the locations are close to one
another and difficult to clearly display on
a statewide scale because the points
overlap. This graphic depicts nearly 1,900
,,,. • s.• r . J !.i": )
•'""""~ "·: ' Cl \/1, ll'il k: •• ,.i111l1111 .. .. , .....
·..-·'rJr t, ..
MaJ<imum Finding 2000-2009 [mg/Las Nitrate]
up 10 2.0
2.1 10.0
10.1 -22.5
22.6 - 45.0
45.1 - 90.0
oser90.0
40 l o 20
0 30 60 90Km http Noroundwatern1tn~te 11cdav1s edu
.. : .... ~ .-. .. ..,: ~ . ...., ~ \ • .: .. • ~ .. 4 ... ~i ., ~ : ,.-~~ i......, • . .. . , "' .,., . - .,,. ....
_.. .;\~a: ... ._ ~ ,, . . ~,. .!.., "it-9
I '-:j • i • • \ : ~
\_ "- . ~
4 ~
Water Quantity and Quality Issues in Small Water Systems
Concentration of Pollutants
Dry wells
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•
• Small systems (population less than 3,300) with contaminated wells and MCL violations
D Hydrologic regions
'\ ... •
--·
Nitrogen loading to groundwater (kilogram per hectare per year)
,/'- ·v,I) f
;;: >) t; ~
l . ~ Sacramento River ~\ t hydrologic region
■ 0- 5 ■ 5 - 10 ■ 10- 35 ■ 35- 50
50- 75 ■ 75- 100 ■ 100 -150 ■ 150 -200 ■ >200
--~- San Joaquin River hydrologic region
\ \ Tulare Lake
)
hyd_rologic
~ } region
Solutions for nitrate in groundwater Farm programs to reduce nitrogen loading Safe drinking water programs
12
Hanak et al. 2017 Water stress and a changing San Joaquin Valley
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Shallow groundwater salinity
Total dissolved solids (mg/L)
■ 1 - 250
■ 251 - 500
501 - 750
■ 751 - 1,000
■ > 1,000 ---- Sacramento River hydrologic region
_, ___ San Joaquin River
hydrologic region
Tulare Lake hydrologic region
Range of approaches for salinity, dust management
• Salts • Major infrastructure
(desalinate, “brine line”) • Crop choices, irrigation
management • Dust from idled fields
• Cover crops • Solar • Habitat
Hanak et al. 2017 Water stress and a changing San Joaquin Valley
13
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Conclusions Drought Impacts
• Some health impacts: income and employment stress,air quality, access to safe drinking water
• Droughts help focus attention and encourage improvements in water management.
• A diversified economy with deep global connection buffered economic effects of drought.
• Major droughts have less impact under diversified water sources
• Small rural water systems are specially vulnerable todrought both in water quality and quantity
• Every drought is different
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collaboration my many colleagues at UC Davis and other institutions, in particular:
a you. [email protected]
I am grateful for past and current collaboration my many colleagues at UC Davis and other institutions, 1n particular: Jay Lund, Richard Howitt, Daniel Sumner and Ellen Hanak and Alvar Escriva-Bou. Funding from the California Department of Food and Agriculture 1s acknowledged.
- UNIVERSITY OF CAUFORNTA -
UC ~ED School of Engineering
I UCDAVIS CENTER FOR
WATERSHED SCIENCES
"'\ i ,
~r cdfa ~
PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA
.. ---- .- --.....
'.'9til. _.: f91!~11..._ ,'A. ~~~~i·, I ml ' fll , . . . .
CALIFO RN I A DEPARTMEN T O F
FOOD & A G RI C U LT U RE · . .____ :
··-.. ': ~~---··
. eraeconom1cs
environment • resources • agriculture
Thank you! [email protected]
I am grateful for past and current
Jay Lund, Richard Howitt, Daniel Sumner and Ellen Hanak and Alvar Escriva-Bou. Funding from the California Department of Food and Agriculture is acknowledged.