NOAA Coral Reef Watch Calcification Index of Coral Reef Ecosystems
NOAANOAA’’ss Coral Reef Watch:Coral Reef Watch:Global Satellite Component of CREIOS
Al Strong (NOAA/NESDIS)C. Mark Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS)Jessica Morgan (NOAA/NESDIS, IMSG)Tyler Christensen (NOAA, IMSG)Gang Liu (NOAA/NESDIS, STG)Dwight Gledhill (NOAA/NESDIS, Knauss Fellow)William Skirving (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC)Scott Heron (NOAA/NESDIS, QSEC)
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SOand
Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP)NOAA Coral Matrix
Silver Spring, Maryland
Presentation Outline• NOAA Coral Reef Watch – Mission and Challenges• Research Impetus
– Impact of rising CO2 on ocean chemistry– Potential threat to marine calcifiers
• Reef Calcification Index (RCI) – Product Development– Calcification and its effect on ‘reef water’ CO2– Modeling pCO2 from space
• Proof of Concept: Caribbean Sea• Next Steps• Application and Stakeholders• Significance, Mission Goal, Cross-Cutting Priorities
The Mission:The mission of NOAA's Coral Reef Watch Program is to utilize remote sensing and in-situ tools for near real-time and long term monitoring, modeling and reporting of physical environmental conditions of coral reef ecosystems. Coral Reef Watch aims to assist in the management, study and assessment of impacts of environmental change on coral reef ecosystems.
Value of Reefs • Seafood: $247 million in commercial fishing on U.S. reef fish• New medicines: cancer research, bone grafts, antivirals• Other products: jewelry• Recreation: $17 billion in U.S. tourism• Coastal protection: buffer from wave action and the impact of storms
Global Decline:• 1/3 world’s reefs severely damaged (U.S. COP)• 50 – 60% may be lost in 30 years (U.S. COP)• ‘97-’98 El Niño mass bleaching event (16% global mortality)• ’05 Caribbean Sea bleaching event (15 – 16 weeks!)
Why Do We Care?
One kilometer of reef valued at between $137,000 to almost $1.2 million!
NOAA Caribbean Bleaching Response Effort• A major coral bleaching event is underway in the Caribbean• Thermal stress reached record levels, exceeding 15 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) at some sites
Bleaching report data for July-November 2005
Location Percent Bleached
Bahamas 16-75Belize 1-77British Virgin Islands 90-100
Trinidad and Tobago 6-100
US Virgin Islands 10-100
Complied from more than 400 bleaching observations obtained from Coral Reef Watch, ReefBase, Coral List, and other sources
US Florida 3-80
Colombia 1-90Cuba 8-75Jamaica 20-80Mexico 1-50Panama 70
US Puerto Rico 50-75US Texas 35-100
Venezuela 21
• NOAA Coral Reef Watch Satellite Bleaching Alert (SBA) monitoring system first alerted possible bleaching conditions:
– Florida Keys in late Aug.– Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands in early Oct.
• The DHW and SBA products have been invaluable to researchers and managers who have redirected efforts to monitor the resulting bleaching.
• NESDIS is leading an international effort to fully document the extent of the bleaching event.
Stressors to Coral Reefs
• Thermal stress• Eustatic sea level rise• Nutrient stress• UVB stress• Salinity stress• Siltation stress• Carbonate mineral saturation state
Rising Levels of Ocean Carbon Dioxide
Total oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 of approximately 118±19 Pg C between 1800 and 1994.
Ocean ‘Acidification’
pH
CO32-
CO2(aq)
Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999
www.niwascience
→+ OHCO 22−+ + 3HCOH32COH →
−−+ →+ 323 HCOCOH
−− ⇔++ 32232 2HCOOHCOCO
Net:
Projected Changes in Saturation State
2060 – 2069pCO2 = 517 ppmv
> 43.5 - 43 – 3.5< 3No Data
Aragonite saturation state
Saturation state in the tropics may decrease by 30% over the next century
with a proportional reduction in calcification rates
NCAR Community Climate System Model CCSM v 1.0IPCC SRES B2 scenario
Guinotte et al., 2003
Impact on Marine Calcifiers
1 2 3 4 5-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Langdon et al. (2004)
Cal
cific
atio
n R
ate
(mm
ol m
-2 h
-1)
Saturation State (Ωaragonite)
present
BIOSPHERE II Coral Reef Mesocosm
Decrease in calcification rate!
Weaker skeletonsReduced extension ratesIncreased susceptibility to erosionSubmersion
18-20 April 2005USGS Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies
St. Petersburg, Florida30 June 2005
Identified priority research areas and recommended approaches from small-scale laboratory experiments to large-scale field experiments, and modeling.
•• The RCI couples remote sensing and The RCI couples remote sensing and in situin situ observations of carbon dioxide partial pressureobservations of carbon dioxide partial pressure(pCO2) to monitor changes in reef community structure.(pCO2) to monitor changes in reef community structure.
••Monitoring the balance between organic carbon and calcium carbonMonitoring the balance between organic carbon and calcium carbonate production, the RCI ate production, the RCI reflects ecosystemreflects ecosystem--level changes and reef responses to a series of environmental stlevel changes and reef responses to a series of environmental stresses resses including ocean acidification.including ocean acidification.
• The RCI adds to the suite of CRW products, providing an importanThe RCI adds to the suite of CRW products, providing an important tool in monitoring coral t tool in monitoring coral reef response to mounting environmental stresses related to climreef response to mounting environmental stresses related to climate change.ate change.
( )WindsColorSSTfpCO ,,Offshore2 = waterReef
2pCO
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
May June July Aug. Sept.
RC
I
CalcificationCalcification
No metabolic effectNo metabolic effect
Organic carbon Organic carbon productionproduction
Reef Patch Reef
The Reef Calcification Index (RCI)Offshore2
waterReef2 pCOpCORCI −=
Dissolution2222 OOCHOHCO +↔+
Photosynthesis Respiration
Southern and Central GBR370
360
350
340
330
320lagoon lagoon lagoon
offshore offshore
atm
pCO
2
Coral Reef Impact on CO2
Kawahata, 2000
22332 2 COOHCaCOHCOCa ++↔++
Calcification
H2O
• Magnitude controlled:– Net primary productivity
versus calcification (ROI)– Coral cover– Mean water depth– Hydrographic processes
Reef Calcification Index (R.C.I)
Reef Water Offshore
OL pCOpCOpCO ,2,22 −=δ
A positive R.C.I. indicates robust
calcification
CO2
CO32- HCO3
- phyto
AtmosphereWindspCO2(atm)
Mix
ed L
ayer
Bottom Layer
Depth of the Euphotic Zone
INKINUU
MM ++=
qrs ×
Chl
Pexp.
ZM
ZE
INTCTATS
TC;TA;INLouanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)
Mechanistic pCO2 Model• Physical and biogeochemical
processes constrained by monthly variations of:
– Sea surface temperature– Chlorophyll concentration– Wind speed– Salinity– Mixed-layer depth
SatelliteRemote Sensing
NODC Monthly Climatology
• Monthly 2°x 2° sea surface pCO2fields in the Indian Ocean where the model seeks to account for:
– Air-sea exchange– Thermodynamic effects– Biological activity– Mixing processes
Algorithm developmentpCO2 = f(SST,lat,lon)
Offshore Shipboard sampling pCO2, SST
Caribbean Sea pCO21° x 1°, Weekly
Satellite SST data
Olsen et. al. (2004)
Statistical pCO2 Model
• 2002 – present• East – West tracks• Sea Keeper pCO2 sys.• Thermosalinograph
AOML Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
Box plots of residuals between pCO2 determined from remotely sensed SST data and bin-averaged pCO2 data from the Explorer.
2002: pCO2sw =10.18 SST+ 0.5249 lat - 0.2921 lon + 52.19, n = 40204, rms = 5.7 µatm, r2= 0.87
• Low spatial resolution using Reynolds (1ox1o)• Yearly drift in SST slope related to changes in atm. CO2.• Not provided NRT• Lat & Lon dependence
Olsen et. al., (2004)
Ship observations of temperature and pCO2were assembled into weekly 0.25 degree binned averages from March 2002 through October 2005
Data for the dry atmospheric mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) were provided by the NOAA/CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gasses (CCGG) Group flask sampling program. –T.J. Conway
Weekly mean values were linearly regressed to obtain the latitudinal XCO2 gradient.
2002 2003 2004 2005
370
380
390
XC
O2
Year
Key Biscayne, Florida Ragged Point, Barbados
22 24 26 28 30 32-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
pCO
2,aq
-XC
O2,
atm
Temperature (oC)
CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
+
=n Adj-r2 RMS
17582 0.81 8.27
CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
• The offshore pCO2 can be obtained from:
( )6.255.12
81.1031.303 ,2,2,22 −×
−++×+−= Lat
xCOxCOxCOSSTpCO RPBKEY
Key
Local atmospheric CO2 term-NOAA/CMDL CCGG
Sea Surface Temperature- Satellite SST product
CRW Caribbean Sea pCO2 Model
• Multi-satellite, multi-sensor• Daily at ~25 km resolution• Cloud penetrating• Day & Night ‘normalized’ to
daily minimum SST (~8 AM)• NRT validated and bias
corrected using in situ obs.• Optimally Interpolated
– Reynolds & Smith (1994)Microwave OI SST data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems and sponsored by the NASA Earth Science Physical Oceanography Program and the NASA REASoN DISCOVER Project. Data are available at www.remss.com.
Instrument Platform Launched Orbit Coverage
TMI TRMM Nov 1997 Equatorial (35°) 40N to 40S
AMSR-E Aqua May 2002 Near Polar Global
Evaluation of computed pCO2 fields
Weekly Residual (Model vs Ship observation)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2002
2002
.21
2002
.42
2002
.63
2002
.85
2003
.06
2003
.27
2003
.48
2003
.69
2003
.9
2004
.12
2004
.33
2004
.54
2004
.75
2004
.96
2005
.17
2005
.38
2005
.6
2005
.81
Year
Mod
el B
ias
(μ
atm
)
320 340 360 380 400 420320
340
360
380
400
420
Ship
Obs
erva
tions
pC
O2 (μa
tm)
Model pCO2 (μatm)
Slope Adj-r2 RMS
1.004±0.006 0.69 10.2
Winter Winter Winter
Summer Summer
• Model performs best in summer months• Consistent bias in winter
2 Sept. 2005
280 282 284 286 288350360370380390400410420430440450460470480490500510520
Model pCO2 N. Normans Reef
pCO2 (μatm)
Longitude
pCO
2(μ
atm
)
CREWSSAMI pCO2
Proof of Concept:N. Normans Reef, BahamasMay – September 2005
N. Normans Reef Prelim. Results
140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
RC
I (μa
tm)
Day of the year
Fanning AtollPalau
0
2
4
6
8
10D
HW
(deg
ree
wee
ks)
Bermuda
• Early summer – values similar to other
previous studies.• Mid-summer
– DHW’s begin accumulating– RCI values trend up
• Similar increases were observed in Palau prior to ’97-’98 bleaching event (Kayanne,2005)
• Late summer– SAMI-pCO2 fails– DHW’s continue to climb– Coral bleaching evolves
throughout the Caribbean
CO2
CO32- HCO3
- phyto
AtmosphereWindspCO2(atm)
Mix
ed L
ayer
Bottom Layer
Depth of the Euphotic Zone
INKINUU
MM ++=
qrs ×
Chl
Pexp.
ZM
ZE
INTCTATS
TC;TA;INLouanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)
CO2
CO32- HCO3
- phytoCO2
CO32- HCO3
-
CO2
CO32- HCO3
- phytophyto
AtmosphereWindspCO2(atm)
Mix
ed L
ayer
Bottom Layer
Depth of the Euphotic Zone
INKINUU
MM ++=
qrs ×
Chl
Pexp.
ZM
ZE
INTCTATS
TC;TA;INLouanchi, Metzl, Poisson (1996)
The Future of R.C.I.• Improved Caribbean pCO2 Model (FY06)
– Air-sea exchange (QuickSCAT), Biological (Color)• Additional Caribbean Sites (CREWS)(FY06)• Hydrographic model (FY07)• Expansion to Non-Caribbean Sites (FY08)
– Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)– South shore of Oahu, HI– Palau– Bermuda
-Joaquin A. Trinanes
Applications and Stakeholders• Coral Reef Management
– Long term monitoring of system level carbon budget– Real time monitoring overall reef health
• Academic– Hypothesis testing– Global carbon budget (source/sink)
• Government– Climate Observations and Services Program– Global Carbon Cycle Program– Coral Reef Conservation Program
NOAA’s Strategic PlanSignificance:• NOAA’s CRW and the newly formed
Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing System (CREIOS) are at the forefront of truly integrated research observations, spanning domestic and international arenas.
• Development of an R.C.I. product can serve the mission of CRW and can be used by managers, academics and government agencies to monitor environmental stresses to coral reefs.
NOAA Mission Goals:• Protect, restore and manage the use
of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based management.
• Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond. Serve society’s needs for weather and water information.
NOAA Cross-Cutting Priorities• Integrated global environmental
observation and data management• Sound, state-of-the art research
Matrix and Collaboration Opportunities• NOAA/OAR/AOML• National Center for Caribbean Coral
Reef Research (NCORE), RSMAS• NGO’s (Conservation International)• NOAA/OAR/PMEL
Summary & Final Remarks• In response to growing concerns over ‘ocean acidification’, NOAA
CRW is developing a Reef Calcification Index (RCI).• The RCI can serve as a feasible and low cost monitoring tool and
compliment the suite of current NOAA CRW products. • Sustained monitoring of the RCI at select reef communities should
yield insight into changes in reef community structure.• Short term variability in the RCI may prove an important bioindicator
of acute coral stress (e.g. bleaching).• Further improvements to the pCO2 model are actively being
investigated (air-sea exchange, biological activity)• Expansion to other sites within the Caribbean could be achieved
with little additional cost.• With refinement and additional in situ resources the RCI can be
expanded outside the Caribbean