Download - #NoEstimates Thinking
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Massimo Iacolare @iacoware
#NOESTIMATESthinking
#iad14
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my journey
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MYTH
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Estimatingsucks!
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Estimatingsucks!
End of story. Questions?
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Estimatingsucks!
Relax, I’m kidding ;-)
End of story. Questions?
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Estimatingsucks!
Relax, I’m kidding ;-)
End of story. Questions?
kind of…
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just lazy?
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#NoEstimatesfrom
#NoSalaryto
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woody zuill
@woodyzuillvasco duarte @duarte_vasco
Neil killick
@neil_killick
J.B. rainsberger
@jbrains
Joshua Kerievsky
@JoshuaKerievsky
Chris R. Chapman
@DerailleurAgileHenri Karhatsu
@karhatsu
many more…
Ángel Medinilla @angel_m
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Woody Zuill
#NoEstimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in
software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates'
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“#NoEstimates is a critique to how estimates are
usually handled not to how they should be done”
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EDD
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ED
EVELOPMENT
STIMATESRIVEN
D
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WHY ESTIMATES DON’T HELP
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WRITING SOFTWARE
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DEALING WITHUNCERTAINTY
every project brings something new
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DomainTechnology - toolsprocesspeople
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DomainTechnology - toolsprocesspeople
we learn by doing+
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ESTIMATES ?
UNCERTAINTY&
upfront
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Oil & water
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unreliable
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MOST useful at the beginning
maximum ignorance
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Cost of a featureessential
complexity +
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Foundamental theorem of agile software development
Cost of a featureessential
complexityaccidental complexity+
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How much time do you need to add “customer promotions”
to our e-commerce?
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How much time do you need to add “customer promotions”
to our e-commerce?
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BIASESoptimism bias
anchoring bias
LOSS AVERSION
AVAILABILITY BIAS
SELECTIVE PERCEPT.
…many more
sunk cost fallacy
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we suck at making predictions
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side effects
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Set Expectations
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Foster plansdetailed plans
detailed backlog
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“estimating means you’re getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong
even when you start”vasco duarte
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“estimating means you’re getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong
even when you start”vasco duarte
learn by doing
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Hinder Adaptation
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Hinder Adaptation
loss aversion
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promote cost-based
mindset
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cost ↳number
↳certainvalue ↳ ???
↳ UNcertain
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cost ↳number
↳certainvalue ↳ ???
↳ UNcertain
availability bias
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Costs become the target to Hit
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same cost more features
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same cost more features
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more features =
better software
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more features ==
better software
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more features ==
better software
in case you are a developer
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more features ==
better software
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more features ==
better software
in case you come from javascript=
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more features ==
better software
in case you come from javascript=
Fallacy
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minimize output maximize outcome
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more features =
bigger codebase =
Hinder ADAPTation
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more features =
bigger codebase =
Hinder ADAPTationagain
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BETTER SOFTWARE
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BETTER SOFTWARE
BETTER features =
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RECAP
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plagued by fallaciesfoster detailed plans
hinder adaptationCOST-based mindset
don’t help with uncertainty
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Where’s the exit, please?
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step 0
sign the contract
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get off to a good start
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get off to a good start
affect execution
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the perils of fixed-price fixed-scope
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fixed price - fixed scope
requirements (estimated plan)
a price
a delivery date
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fixed price - fixed scope
requirements (estimated plan)
a price
a delivery date
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premisesrequirements captured the problem
you understood the problem
Uncertainty doesn’t exist
estimates are correct
execution goes smootly
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premisesrequirements captured the problem
you understood the problem
Uncertainty doesn’t exist
estimates are correct
execution goes smootly
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premisesrequirements captured the problem
you understood the problem
Uncertainty doesn’t exist
estimates are correct
execution goes smootly
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customer problem
fp-fs
things go wrong
you failyou suck
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customer problem
fp-fs
things go wrong
you failyou suck
bigger penalty fees
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customer problem
fp-fs
things go wrong
you failyou suck
bigger penalty fees
more analysis
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you f*ck me, I F*ck you
fixed-price, fixed-scope contracts
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Agile contractsCapped time-materialincremental delivery
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the exit, please?
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adopt a development style which doesn’t rely
on estimates
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we learn by doing so we should hit the
target iteratively
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adopt a development style which foster a
healthy, mature relationship with my
customers
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do the right thing
do it right
do it iteratively
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do the right thing
do it right
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do the right thingsolve the right problemthe starting point matters
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map the problem with story mapping
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jeff patton
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communication toolwhole point of Xp: business people and technical people should talk
help build customer trust Visualizing your strategy
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story mapping benefits
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build a shared understanding
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spot story’s holes
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build effective releases
walking skeleton
plan to reduce uncertainty
prioritize by outcome, not features
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avoid silosUsers catalog cart promo payments
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keep plans lightweight
half life of requirementsembrace flexible scope
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do it rightget better at software development
how hard can it be?
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do it rightget better at software development
how hard can it be?
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support an iterative-incremental style of development
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what do we need?
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tight feedback loop
slice scope
exploit iterative development
technical excellence to keep it all together
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tight feedback loop
tdd ↔ continuous delivery
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slice everything
defer commitment
generate options
always assume there’s a simpler way
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exploit iterative
developmentUncertainty-Jeff-Pattondon’t know what i want
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“if you work on it only once you are
not doing iterative development”
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tech. EXCellenceyou’ll need to grow your design incrementally…
…so you won’t get stuck and rewrite it every time you touch it
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iterative development is the result of your
well trained technical abilities
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nurture your skills
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technical xp practices
pair programming
tddsimple design refactoring
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“#NoEstimates is merely a call to refocus on the agile manifesto”
Woody Zuill
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Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools
Working software over Comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation
Responding to change over Following a plan
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Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools
Working software over Comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation
Responding to change over Following a plan
#NoEstimates
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Massimo Iacolare
co-founder of the awesome
freelance
.net and js expert
love shipping features
love making users happy
quality addicted
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Lambacon - marzo 2015, bologna