NOMINATIONS AND CAMPAIGNS
Presidential vs Congressional Campaigns
• More voters• More competitive• Less incumbent
advantage
• Lower turnout in midterm elections
• Take more credit for individual projects
• Able to distance themselves from DC
• Franking privileges• Coattail effect has
declined
RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
Getting Mentioned
• Off the record to reporters
• Make speeches
• Fame
• Associated with major piece of legislation
• Governor
Money
• Individuals
• Political Action Committees
Organization
• Fund raisers
• Lawyers
• Accountants
• Pollsters
• Volunteers
• Position papers
Competing for Delegates
• Caucus:• Neighborhoodcounty—congressional
districtstate convention—national convention
• Primary• McGovern-Fraser Commission• Superdelegates• Frontloading
Evaluation of Primary and Caucus
• Disproportionate attention to early caucuses and primaries (Iowa and New Hampshire)
• Difficult to find time to run
• Money
• Low participation:5% of registered voters in caucuses (except
Iowa) and 20 in primaryToo much power to media
Strategy and Themes
• Tone: Positive or negative
• Theme: trust, change, experience
• Timing: heavy or light campaigning
• Targets: Which voters will change their minds?
Primaries and General Election
• Extreme in primary
• Center in general
• Clothespin Vote: lesser of two evils
Campaign Issues
• Position Issues: Two opposing views Social Security, abortion, death penalty Can lead to party realignment• Valence Issues: Universal issues Strong economy Low crime Patriotism
Federal Election Campaign Act (passed in 1971, amended in
1974)
1. Federal Election Commission
• Oversee elections to ensure the parties and candidates are complying with election rules
2. Presidential Election Campaign Fund
• $3 voluntary check off box on income tax (11% of taxpayers)
3. Partial Public Financing for Presidential Primaries
• Presidential candidates who raise $5,000 on their own in at least 20 states can get individual contributions of up to $250 matched by the government (matching funds) If they accept federal support, they agree to limit campaign expenditures
• Bush and Kerry declined matching funds
• Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part of costs paid by the federal government
4. General Election• Public financing for major party candidates
in general election
• Major party candidates receive fixed amount of money ($75m in 2004)
• Kerry and Bush accepted this money
5. Full Disclosure
• File with FEC
• List contributors
• Detail how money was spent
6. Limited Contributions
• Individual contributions to presidential and congressional candidates: $2,000 each (as of 2004) and indexed to inflation ($2,300 in the 2008 presidential election.
• Originally $1,000 but changed by McCain-Feingold Act
Campaign Finance Rules (1974)
• PACs:• One PAC per corporation, union, or
association• Register 6 months in advance• At least 50 contributors• Give to at least five candidates• No more than $5,000 per candidate per
election• No more than $15,000 per year to national
party
Loopholes
• Soft money:Funds NOT for specific candidatesGet-out-the-voteVoter registration campaigns
• Bundling: combining contributions to be given at once (makes more of an impact)
Effect of Reforms
• Growth of PACs (4,217 in 2006): contributed $288.6 m in 2004 House and Senate elections
• Party power has weakened• Rich candidates can avoid rules• Favors ideological candidates• Favors incumbents: they are more well
known, so they can get the individual contribution
• Must enter race early because of the need to raise money
Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold Act)• Banned soft money; national parties can
only receive hard money (individual contributions or PAC contributions)
• Limit on individual contributions raised from $1,000 to $2,000 per candidate per election (indexed to inflation)
Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002
• Independent expenditures by corporations, labor unions, trade associations and (under certain circumstances) nonprofits are sharply restricted:
• Barred groups from running issue ads within 60 days of a general election (or 30 days before a primary) if they refer to a federal candidate and are not funded through a PAC (i.e., regulated funds)
Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002
• 527 Groups are not subject to contribution restrictions as long as political messages did not make explicit endorsements of candidates by using phrases, such as vote for, or vote against
• $424 million in 2004 (52 gave over $1 million; 213 gave over $100,000)
Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission (2010)
• 5 to 4 decision
• Court held as unconstitutional a key provision of the McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Finance Act that places limits on how much corporations and unions can spend for or against political candidates toward the end of the campaign.
• 5: Roberts, Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, Alito
• 4 (dissenting): Stevens, Ginsberg, Breyer, Sotomayor.
Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
• Political contributions are “speech” within the meaning of the 1st Amendment.
• Individual persons can spend as much as they like to express their views on issues and/or candidates.
• Contribution limits directly to campaigns prior to an election are constitutional because the government has an interest in making sure there is no appearance of a “quid pro quo” arrangement through campaign donations.
Citizens United (Nonprofit corporation)
• Produced a video “Hillary” during Clinton’s campaign in 2008
Should corporations have the same 1st Amendment rights as individuals?
• Yes: Corporations are associations of individuals and are entitled to the same 1st Amendment rights as individuals.
• Any legislation that affects the political process should be “suspect”.
• No: The side with more money should not dominate the political process by being able to out-contribute the opponents (a level playing field)
• 1st Amendment rights are for “real” persons, not “artificial” persons created the by State.
VOTING FACTORS
Incumbency
• In good economic times, party holding White House normally does well; in poor times it does badly (pocketbook vote)
• Many who are doing well will vote against incumbent if country is not doing well because of friends or customers not doing well
Character
• Honesty and reliability
• Opinion on crime, abortion, and school prayer
• Acting presidential (speaking well, dignified, compassionate, authoritative, reasonable, likable)
Money
• Does not make a difference since each candidate gets same amount (If both candidates accept public funding.)
• Makes a difference in Congressional races:• High-spending incumbents do better than
low-spending incumbents• Average spending has increased over time
(incumbent to challenger ratio: 2.47)
Non-factors
• VP nominee• Political reporting• Religion• Abortion: might affect who gets nomination• New voting groups: “angry white males did
not elect Republican Congress in 1994 and soccer moms did not elect Bill Clinton in 1996”
Party Identification
• More Democrats than Republicans, but Democrats lost 7 of 12 presidential elections since 1968:
• Democrats less loyal (80% of Republicans vote party line, but 1/3 of Democrats voted for Nixon and 26% for Reagan)
• Republican attract a majority of independents, who are usually younger whites
• Higher percentage of Republicans vote
Issues• Prospective/Policy voting:
• Voter learn about the issues
• Select best candidate
• Retrospective voting:
• If voters look at how things have gone in the past and they like it, they will vote for candidate who will continue those policies (and vice-versa)
• Elections are decided by this factor
Campaign
• Revive party loyalties
• Voters see how candidates handle pressure
• Judge character and core values
Democratic Coalition
• African-Americans (most loyal)• Mexican-Americans• Puerto Ricans• Jewish People (most loyal)• Lost strong support of : Catholics Southerners Union Members
Republican Coalition
• Business people (most loyal)
• Farmers (volatile)
• Professionals
• Poor people (most are elderly and retired; low-income blacks vote Democrat, but less than 25% of Democratic vote)
Party Realignment
• “sharp lasting shift in the popular coalition supporting one or both parties
• “new issue of utmost importance to the voters cuts across existing party divisions and replaces old issues that were formerly the basis of of party identification”
• Five major shifts in American history
1800 Elections
• Jeffersonian Republicans defeated the Federalists
1828 Elections
• Jacksonian Democrats win
1860
• Slavery issue
• Whigs (Constitutional Union Party) silent and fall
• Democratic Party split
• Northern part waffling
• Southern party in favor of slavery
• Republicans win with Lincoln
1896 Elections
• Economic causes (depressions)• Republicans defeat William Jennings Bryan• Republicans: urban, workers, and
businesspeople, Catholics, Lutherans• Democrats: farmers, small towns, low tariffs,
and rural interests, fundamentalists• North/South became East/West
1932 Elections
• Great Depression
• Roosevelt Democrats win
• Democrats: urban workers, northern blacks, southern whites, Jewish voters
Party Decline
• Ticket splitting increasing
• Leads to divided government
• Office bloc (Massachusetts ) ballot: list candidates by office
• Party-column (Indiana) ballot: can vote straight party with one mark
Campaign Finance Rules (1974)
• GENERAL:• Federal Election Commission (6 people)• Full disclosure of donors ($100 or more)• No cash contributions over $100• No foreign contributions• No limit if candidate does not accept
federal funding (up to $50,000 if he does)
Campaign Finance Rules (1974)
• Individual Contributions:
• No more than $2,000 per candidate per election
• An individual may not make federal political gifts exceeding $95,000 every two years, of which only $37,500 may go to candidates
Campaign Finance Rules (1974)
• Presidential Primaries:
• Matching funds for $250 donations or less
• Candidate must raise $5,000 in each of 20 states in $250 contributions or less to be eligible
Campaign Finance Rules (1974)
• Presidential Election:Major party candidates: all costs up to a
legal limit paid by the federal government (if they accept federal support)
Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part of costs paid by the federal government