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NWS Climate Services
Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services Meeting
Fiona HorsfallOCWWS/Climate Services Division
October 24, 2003
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESOutline
• Definition
• Vision
• CSD
• Role of Regional and Field Offices
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• Real-time monitoring• Forecasting products and services• Models and technology, model output• Observations• Customer education, assistance, and outreach• Developing partnerships
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESDefinition
The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to
decision makersA Climate Services Vision: First Steps Toward the Future, 2001, NRC
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• Real-time monitoring of climate variability (including drought conditions) coast to coast down to the county level
• New forecast products– Linking weather and climate on intraseasonal time
scales– Downscaled to local levels– Reflecting new insight into warm season precipitation,
drought, and the Southwest monsoon– Extending beyond a year to a decade or more
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESVision
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• User-friendly provider to the private sector of NWS climate models, climate forecast model output, climate guidance products, and know-how
• Capacity to ensure the accuracy and continuity of the U.S. historical record
• Fully-mobilized regional and field offices for– Customer outreach– Downscaling climate forecasts– Product and information dissemination– Integration and quality control of surface observations
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESVision
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESCSD -- Mission
To provide vision, direction, and
resources to ensure NWS climate
services are easily accessible, well
understood, optimally used, and
reflect customer needs
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• Provide direct staff and monetary assistance
• Produce guidelines and directives
• Ensure availability of training
• Coordinate requirements
• Facilitate partnerships
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESCSD -- Roles
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Bob LivezeyDivision Chief
Fiona HorsfallStrategic PlanningAnd Programming
Judy KoepsellNWS Regional/Field Services Coordinator
Bob LefflerLiaison for
Climate RecordRon Berger
Operations and Product Oversight
Diana PerfectInternationalCoordinator
Mike BrewerFederal/State Services
Coordinator
FTE’s
Barb MayesCustomer Liaison/
Budget Officer
Bob ReevesTechnical Consultant
Marina TimofeyevaVisiting Scientist
MelvynGelman
NWS Liaison to COSP
Jiayu ZhouClimate Focal
Point, OST
Supporting
Contract
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESCSD -- Personnel
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• CSD Chief and CPC Director sit on NCO Board
• Matrix link to other LOs directly and through NOAA Climate Office (NCO)
• Develops and champions NWS climate budget initiatives
NWS CLIMATE SERVICESCSD -- Key External Activities
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NOAA Climate Office
Interagency ClimateOffice Climate Board
NCEP
NMFS
EMC
NOSOARNESDISNWS
Focal Points
CPC CSDWFOs/RFCs
RegionalManager
RCCs CWISE
OCWWS Regions
NGDCNCDCNODC
OGP, CDC, GFDL,
Sea Grant
RISAs, IRI,ExtensionM
atri
x L
ink
CSC, OCRM,CWISE
FY 2001
FY 2003
NWS CLIMATE SERVICES
NWS Climate Services TeamPPI
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESCSD -- Key Internal Activities
• Special projects– Statistical downscaling of CPC outlooks for
Western (WR), Alaska (AR), and Eastern (ER) Regions
– Definition of new homogeneous Climate Divisions for the United States (CDC/CIRES)
– Development of an organizational model for regional climate services (CDC/CIRES)
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESThe Five Pillars
Climate Services of
the National Weather Service
Guidelines & Tools
Observations & Data
Climate Monitorin
g & Prediction Products
Education & Outreach
Partnerships
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESRole of Regional & Field Offices
Goal 1: Organize and equip the regional and local offices with guidelines and tools to enhance climate services
Assume ownership of program, self organize (dedicated Program Manager at RHQ, designated focal points at field offices), and commence planning and training in FY03.
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESRole of Regional & Field Offices
Goal 2: Provide reliable, timely, accurate, and secure observations and metatdata for the climate record
Ensure standards, rigorous metadata reporting, timely exchange of QC information with partners.
Jack Kelly: Our legacy will be our data
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESRole of Regional & Field Offices
Goal 3: Enhance and extend CPC’s product suite to increase the use and effectiveness of regional and local climate information
Involvement in CPC team activities; local studies, conditional probabilities, and statistical downscaling; feedback for product requirements; product development; testbed participation.
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESRole of Regional & Field Offices
Goal 4: Conduct outreach to regional and local decisionmakers and users of climate services products
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NWS CLIMATE SERVICESRole of Regional & Field Offices
Goal 5: Establish strong partnerships with the climate community to facilitate collaborations in the delivery of regional and local climate services
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• NOAA Climate Transition Program (NCTP)– Developed in collaboration with OAR/OGP
– Develops a deliberate bridge for research to applications • Proposal process
• Climate-sensitive research
• Transition to applications
• Provides funding
• Open to all
• For expanding regional/local climate services
NOAA Climate Transition Program Research to Applications
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Decision-makers
PrototypeDevelopment
Transfer toOperations
ProblemIdentification
Education/Outreach
Research Operations
Extension
NOAA Climate Transition Program Unit Model
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• Criteria for Proposal
• Clearly defined roles
•Research
•Operations
•Decisionmaker
•Extension
• Defined participant contributions
NOAA Climate Transition Program Unit Model
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• Criteria for Proposal cont’d
• Formal agreement between participants
• Statement of duration and timeline
• Benefit analysis (socio-economic and other quantative analyses, ecosystem benefits, etc.)
• Address post audit (validation, verification, refinement, maintenance)
• Expected outcome clearly defined
NOAA Climate Transition Program Unit Model
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• Managed by NOAA Climate Office• Program manager• Cross line office Advisory Panel; NCO Director is approving
official• Priorities set by Climate Board in response to
recommendations from regions
• Letter of Intent in response to Request for Proposal
• Submission of Proposal• Review
• Scaled recommendations of merit reviewers• Funding allocations• Recommendations of Advisory Panel• Benefits to regional/local climate-sensitive decisionmaking
processes
NOAA Climate Transition Program Proposal Process
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• NCTP provides a NOAA backbone for
Cores for Regional Collaboration• Collaborate on projects for transition of
regional products (including NCTP projects)
• Build on existing partnerships (eg, in the west, RISA’s, CPC, CDC, WRCC) and develop new ones (WRHQ)
• Channel regional climate information into useful regional and local products
• Data and information sharing• Quality control
NOAA Climate Transition Program What’s next?
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Climate Cores
CORE
SCs
RCC
NOAA
Federal research
Oversight/managementNWS
NESDIS
NOS
NMFS
OAR RISAs
Non-profit
Private Sector
Extension
Academia
State entities
Federal operations
PPI
CountyOffices
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Share regional/local scienceReview consistencies
across regions
Identify policy issues Establish collaborations
Identify operational issues Set planning guidelines
Facilitate transition of research to operations
Communicate funding opportunities
Maintain dialogue forregional issues
Make recommendations for
regional/local priorities
Climate Cores
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• A 3-step process– Gather information, needs
• Regional conferences• Domain defined by issues, not politics
– Develop a capacity for working
• Research• Funding• Transfer• Operations• Extension
– Delivery and improvement
Climate Cores
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Synergistic Core Development
Time
New RISA Development
CoreMeetin
gs
FYO6
Fre
qu
ency
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Summary
• Climate Services – in the national spotlight
• NWS – perfectly poised to deliver climate services
• Implementing climate services
• Developing partnerships
• NOAA – leadership role in climate services• NCTP provides a mechanism for transfer of
research to operations with funding attached• Climate Cores – enabling collaborations with
regional and local climate communities
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Thank You