Overview of Theory of Change Approach
Michael Kidoido
Maziwa Zaidi review & planning meeting
31 March – 1 April 2015 at Giraffe Ocean View Hotel, Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
What is a Theory of Change?
As it says!
• An ongoing process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the part we play in a particular context, sector and/or with a group of people:
– It considers a programme or project within a wider analysis of how change comes about.
– It makes us explain our understanding of change – but also challenges us to explore it further.
• The focus is on what we think will change for whom, not on what we plan to do.
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
In other words…
• Thinking about real changes for real people
• Applying common sense systematically
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
The ToC process – for planning and accountability…
1. Research and describe how you
think changes happens in the
contexts that you are working in
2. Identify your specific role in contributing to these changes
3. Develop a causal pathway illustrating
how your efforts will contribute to identified changes 4. Identify the
assumptions that will need to be
tested through life of programme
5. Continuously monitor change and
your change pathway; and test
assumptions
6. Critically reflect on your pathway and your role in the light of emerging changes (expected and unexpected)
…which works at all levels Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
Developing our Change Pathway
• This relates directly to your understanding of how
change happens (Step 1)
• It describes in detail your unique ways of understanding
and addressing these issues, including:
– Who you work with
– How you work with them
– To achieve or influence what changes
– The assumptions that you have made in designing this pathway
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
INTERMEDIATE CHANGESFOR DIFFERENT TARGET GROUPS(Your indirect sphere of influence)
The Elements – building blocks
IMMEDIATE CHANGES
FOR DFFERENT TARGET GROUPS
(your direct sphere of influence)
Strategy:
What you do with key
stakeholders
Take up and involvement by these stakeholder groups
Changes for target groups they are working with e.g. knowledge, attitudes , skills, systems, relationships
... Supporting deeper changes for different target groups in e.g. livelihoods practices , policies, allocations, operations
Adapted from
Morton, 2012,
Montague, 2011 Isabel Vogel and
Maureen O'Flynn
Informed by context: Socio-economic, political, Technological factors
Existing policies,practices, beliefs
Actors, networks in research, policy and practice, power
Capacity of targetgroups to respond
Receptiveness of context
Organizations,resources,systems, skills
Vision
DEEPER LASTING
CHANGES FOR
BENEFICIARIES
Key questions :
•How do changes link and support
each other?
•Who/what else helps or hinders
progress?
Important things to note
ToC is a process and an approach, not a tool
Theories of Change come in all shapes, no ‘right’ version
Ownership and buy in from all key stakeholdersis essential
You need energy and appetite to develop ToC – choose your moment wisely!
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
The relationship between ToC and Accountability
1.Research and describe how you think changes happens in the
contexts that you are working in
2. Identify your specific role in
contributing to these changes
3. Develop a causal pathway illustrating how your efforts will
contribute to identified changes 4. Identify the
assumptions that will need to be tested
through life of programme
5. Continuously monitor change and
your change pathway; and test assumptions
6. Critically reflect on your pathway and your role in the light of emerging changes (expected and unexpected)
What? How?
Why?
So what?
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
Then elements were data collection framework
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn
Change no. 1: Research Collaborators effectively include program issues into theiractivities and budget planning
Assumptions set I: Our program activities are in line with research collaborator’sactivities
Areas of Enquiry Evaluation/Learningquestions
Indicators
Targeteddatasources
Datacollectionmethods
Who will collectthe data?
Two notes of caution…
Theories of change do not provide magic solutions!!1. They need time and resources – you need to
choose your moments for embarking on this journey wisely
1. If you don’t take participation and ownership seriously, your ToC ( at whatever level) becomes yet another paper exercise.... which adds nothing to organisational learning
Some perceived benefits
• Builds common understanding of how and why you do what you do
• Strengthens the clarity, direction, effectiveness and focus of programmes
• Provides a framework for review, learning and re-design.
• Improves partnership
• Supports organisational development
• Helps people communicate what they do so it can be more easily understood by others
• Empowers people to become more active and involved in programme design and implementation
Isabel Vogel and Maureen O'Flynn