Download - Partner presentations final 2012
Welcome!2012 Partners Meeting
Zurich – London – New York
Agenda Performance review & expectations
Post mortem on past holdings
Q&A
Year Fund S&P 5002012 (ytd) 20.9 15.6
2011 -3.1 2.1
2010 19.2 14.8
2009 39.3 23.5
2008 -46.7 -38.5
2007 17.0 3.5
2006 37.1 13.6
2005 7.2 3.0
2004 11.2 9.0
2003 29.5 26.4
2002 -1.6 -23.4
2001 1.9 -13.0
2000 21.4 -10.1
1999 -6.7 19.5
1998 26.1 33.6
1997 2.5^ 5.5%^
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
300,000.00
350,000.00
400,000.00
Comparison of changes in $100,000 invested in Aquamarine Fund Inc. vs S&P 500
Aquamarine Fund Inc
S&P 500
USD
5
Aquamarine Fund eeds to be updatedCumulative Return (Net of Fees Since Inception Sep, 1997)Percentage Increase of Aquamarine Fund since Inception
Fund DJIU S&P 500 FT 1000%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
266.1%
131.0%95.0% 83.1%
Investment Performance (As of August 2012 net of fees since inception – Sep 1997
Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc.
Fund DJIU S&P 500 FT 100
Cumulative Return 276.9% 137.4% 99% 87.8%
Annualized Return 9.2% 5.9% 4.7% 4.3%
Investment ResultsAs a multiple of Original Investment
Historical performance represents Aquamarine Fund, Inc.
Years of OperationRate of Return
9.1% 5.8% 4.1%
5 1.6 1.3 1.2
15 3.7 2.4 1.9
30 14.0 5.6 3.5
Performance Expectations• 85% of mutual funds lag the S&P 500 Index
after all fees and expenses. Just 0.5% of
Mutual Funds beat the Indices by over 3%.
(Source: Bogle)
• My goal is to beat the three indices over the
long haul. Beating all three indices is likely to
put us in the top 10% of all US mutual funds
and hedge funds.
• I am quite confident we’ll beat the indices over
the long haul. Not sure by how much
Aquamarine Fund Value Proposition• Low / No management fees• Spier family is the largest investor – we
eat our own cooking• No performance fees until fund regains
new highs• No leverage, No margin loans, No short
positions, no complexity
0% Management Fee Class Update
Year End Percentage of Total Assets2007 0%2008 3%2009 4%2010 6%2011 13%August 2012 16%
Dec 97 Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Aug-12
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
Aquamarine Capital Assets Under Management($ in millions)
Investment Entered before 2008 exited Post
53%
17%
8%
-3% -8%
Annualized Return on Investment
Investment Entered before 2008 exited Post
Entered Exited $ Profit Total Return Annualized Return
Heineken Holdings Mar 2003 June 2012 1.3 105% 8%
Harley Davidson* Apr 2006 June 2012 1.0 138% 17%
Alaska Milk Apr 2007 June 2012 7.5 398% 53%
Smart Balance Feb 2008 March 2012 -1.3 -28% -8%
Discover Financial Jul 2007 Oct. 2011 -0.16 -13.5% -3%
Investment Entered before 2008 exited Post
Entered Exited Total Return Annualized Return
Heineken Holdings 10X 13X 105% 8%
Harley Davidson* 15X 16X 138% 17%
Alaska Milk <6X 14X 398% 53%
Smart Balance >30X >30X -28% -8%
Discover Financial 20X 15X -13.5% -3%
21%
46%
78%
99%
99%
Annualized % Return on Investment
30%
Investment Entered since 2008
Entered Exited $ Profit (mm)
Total Return
Annualized Return
Cresud Nov ’08 Apr ’11 0.9 305% 78%
London Mining Dec ’08 Aug ’11 1.7 166% 46%
Brookfield Office Jul ’09 Jun ’12 1.3 113% 30%
Capital Source Dec ’09 Jun ‘12 0.8 59% 21%
International Coal Mar ’10 May ’11 3.2 150% 99%
Terex Corp May ‘11 Aug ‘12 0.7 83% 99%
Portfolio Developments in 2012
Sales• Alaska Milk• Heineken Holdings• Harley Davidson• Capital Source• Brookfield Office Properties• TerexCash Recycled
Current Status
• AUM $115 million
• 42% GARP & Better Businesses
• 52% Deeply Discount & Special Situations
• 6% Cash
• Intrinsic value $150-180 million
• New Cash invested = $2.7 million
• Redemptions = $1.5 million
Terex Corporation
Revenue EBIT NI Market Cap
Enterprise Value
2007 7,976 814 613 8,500 9,2002011 6,504 151 -90 1,500 3,50020XX ≈10,000 ≈1,000 ≈750 ≈6,000
Collection of unique assets required for construction to functionConsolidating industry, using the downturn to consolidate (e.g Demag Cranes)No dear term debt maturities low risk of enterprise failureEventual recovery of housing and construction activity.Collapse in share price finely tuned forecasting not necessary
Terex Corporation
Purchase$10.94 (avg)
Sales$21.64 (avg)
Brookfield Office PropertiesBruce Flatt / Brookfield Asset ManagementLocation Location LocationCharlie Munger formula for success: Best office property, McDonalds, auto dealership
• 2008 financial crisis • 33% offices in NYC• BAC/MER 2013 merger vacancy overhangBut: • No funding issues / 95% non-recourse debt• Trading at below replacement & book value.• Markets substantially recovering in mid-2009• Merrill partner in World Financial Center
Brookfield Office Properties
Purchase $8.93 (avg) Sale: $16.59 (avg)
• Plan for success at all times
• Adjust the mission as circumstances
change
• Accept where you are.
• Accept past mistakes and move on
• Massive risk care in taking risks
• Never feel sorry for yourself
• Accept the difficulties
• Accept and work with the imperfections
in your team
• Never give up
• Before Investing, run a checklist
• Take buy and sell decisions when the market is closed
• Buy to hold for at least two years
• Reduce toxic relationships, increase productive ones
• Create Useful Partnerships
• Create a distance from the “madding crowd”
• Sequence information appropriately
• Maximize positive feedback loops
• Invoke useful circuit breakers
• 1. Investing their own money
• 2. Sole focus
• 3. Activity, not a Business
• 4. Good
• 5. Fiduciary gene
Considerations on Investing with someone else
Q&A
35
Thank You