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Phillip Securities Research Morning Call24th August 2020
Hyphens Pharma
Dasin Retail Trust
City Developments
Yoma Strategic
JEP Holdings
Thai Beverage
SingTel
Stock Counter Updates
SG Banking Monthly
SG REITS Monthly
SG Bonds Weekly
SG Weekly
Macro/Sector Outlook
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Tay Wee Kuang
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
Hyphens Pharma International LtdShaking off COVID-19 woes with expanded portfolio
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SGD '000 1H20 1H19 YoY Comments
Specialty pharma principals 31,408 29,470 7% Steady growth was achieved across both 1Q20
and 2Q20 (+11% YoY and +3% YoY) despite slower
business momentum in 2Q20.
Proprietary brands 9,167 7,064 30% Strong demand for products under Ceradan® and
Ocean Health® brand portfolio which benefited
from moving to online sales channels.
Medical hypermart and digital 21,065 19,472 8% Stellar 1Q20 sales (+17% YoY) within segment
weighed down in 2Q20 when Singapore entered
Circuit Breaker period. Revenue for the segment
fell 0.7% YoY in 2Q20.
Revenue 61,640 56,006 10%
Cost of sales (40,535) (36,382) 11%
Gross profit 21,105 19,624 8%
Distribution costs (12,373) (11,067) 12%
Administrative expenses (4,716) (4,850) (3%)
Finance costs (51) (74) (31%)
Other income and gains/(losses) 1,184 82 n.m. Recognised S$900k of Job Support Scheme (JSS)
from government grant in 2Q20.
Profit/(loss) before tax 5,149 3,715 39%
Income tax expense (867) (651) 33%
Profit, net of tax 4,282 3,064 40%Source: Company, PSR
+ The Positives
Proprietary brands revenue benefited (+24% YoY) from online sales channel during Circuit Breaker period in the second quarter
Move to online sales channel benefited brands Ceradan® and Ocean Health®
Underlying revenue growth intact despite slower second quarter
Other segments saw modest growth in 1H20
COVID-19 slowed sales in 2Q20
- The Negatives
Inventory stock-up in anticipation of product license renewals weigh on cash flows
Product license renewals in Vietnam might see supply shortage
2Q20 cash outflow of S$1.7mn due to higher inventory levels (+S$4.7mn) in the quarter
Hyphens Pharma International LimitedACCUMULATE (Maintained), TP: S$0.495 (prev S$0.435), Last: S$0.470
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SGD '000 1H20 1H19 YoY Comments
Specialty pharma principals 31,408 29,470 7% Steady growth was achieved across both 1Q20
and 2Q20 (+11% YoY and +3% YoY) despite slower
business momentum in 2Q20.
Proprietary brands 9,167 7,064 30% Strong demand for products under Ceradan® and
Ocean Health® brand portfolio which benefited
from moving to online sales channels.
Medical hypermart and digital 21,065 19,472 8% Stellar 1Q20 sales (+17% YoY) within segment
weighed down in 2Q20 when Singapore entered
Circuit Breaker period. Revenue for the segment
fell 0.7% YoY in 2Q20.
Revenue 61,640 56,006 10%
Cost of sales (40,535) (36,382) 11%
Gross profit 21,105 19,624 8%
Distribution costs (12,373) (11,067) 12%
Administrative expenses (4,716) (4,850) (3%)
Finance costs (51) (74) (31%)
Other income and gains/(losses) 1,184 82 n.m. Recognised S$900k of Job Support Scheme (JSS)
from government grant in 2Q20.
Profit/(loss) before tax 5,149 3,715 39%
Income tax expense (867) (651) 33%
Profit, net of tax 4,282 3,064 40%Source: Company, PSR
Outlook
Active expansion of product portfolio continues to provide growth catalysts
Acquisition of hair growth product brand CG210® strengthen proprietary brands portfolio
New product launches from existing brand portfolios Ceradan® and Ocean Health®
Ocean Health® enters Hong Kong market with partnership deal with lifestyle brand SUTL
Break into US$722mn vitamins and dietary supplements market in Hong Kong
Provide Hyphens with established retail sales channel in a competitive market
Investment Action
We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation with revised TP of S$0.495 (prev S$0.435). FY20e adjusted upwards by 25% to reflect strong income growth and recognition of Job Support Scheme. Terminal growth rate was adjusted from 1.5% to 2.0% to reflect opportunities for growth in fragmented market.
Hyphens Pharma International LimitedACCUMULATE (Maintained), TP: S$0.495 (prev. S$0.435), Last: S$0.470
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Banking MonthlyFirst steps to recovery
Tay Wee Kuang
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
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NIM in 2Q20 experienced full brunt of March interest rate cuts
Double-digit declines across banks in 2Q20
Quarterly average of 1.57% is 10 bps lower than 2013
despite similar levels of interest rates
Exacerbated by deposits inflow and lagged repricing of
deposits
Expected to recover slightly in subsequent quarters
Interest rates stabilises in August
Current 3M-SIBOR and 3M-SOR (0.41% and 0.21%
respectively) comparable to quarterly lows observed in 2013
(0.37% and 0.21% respectively)
Banking Industry – Maintain Neutral
NIM (%) DBS OCBC UOB
2Q20 1.62(-29 bps)
1.60(-19 bps)
1.48(-33 bps)
1Q20 1.86 1.76 1.71
2Q19 1.91 1.79 1.81
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Banking Industry – Maintain Neutral
Loans growth turns negative in June
Business loans weakness (+0.55% YoY):
Weighed down by general commerce (-6.2% YoY),
financial institutions (-2.5% YoY) and professional &
private individuals (-9.6%)
Consumer loans continues to contract (-3.44%):
Weakness across the board
Credit card loans show signs of recovery (+2.9%
MoM)
Loans growth (%) Business Consumer Total
Jun-20 0.55 -3.44 -0.98
May-20 3.02 -3.48 0.51
Apr-20 5.36 -3.28 1.98
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Banking Industry – Maintain Neutral
Reserves build-up well underway
DBS OCBC UOB
380,847 267,874 280,693
80 - 130 100 - 130 100 - 120
3,000 - 5,000 2,700 - 3,500 2,800 - 3,400
RLAR reserves 404 876 114
ECL stage 1 & 2 (GP) 2,511 1,048 1,985
ECL stage 3 (SP) 2,502 1,397 1,626
Total reserves 5,417 3,321 3,725
RLAR reserves - 874 379
ECL stage 1 & 2 (GP) 3,799 1,668 2,391
(+ 884) (+ 618) (+ 671)
ECL stage 3 (SP) 2,922 1,842 1,664
6,721 4,384 4,434
(+ 1,304) (+ 1,063) (+ 709)
Compared to guidance 25 - 45% 30 - 40% 20 - 25%
Gross loan book (S$mn)
Credit cost guidance (bps)
Expected allowances (S$mn)
FY19
(pre-COVID-19)
Current
Total reserves
0
0
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Banking Industry – Maintain Neutral
Banks’ dividend yield capped by new dividend guideline from MAS
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Derivatives improved in July while SDAV maintains double-digit growth YoY
Both SDAV and DDAV show double-digit growth YoY in July
SDAV up by 15% YoY while DDAV was up 27% YoY
Debut of FTSE Taiwan Index Futures saw 80,000 contracts transacted in less than 10 trading days in
July
Muted impact expected from MSCI cessation
FTSE replacement should see faster adoption rate than other new product launches
Investment action
Maintain Singapore Banking sector at Neutral. Cap in dividend reduce yield attractiveness but banks are
expected to have hit the lows as Singapore exits Circuit Breaker to benefit non-interest income.
Banking Industry – Maintain Neutral
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Dasin Retail TrustRecovery to lend support to leasing
Natalie Ong
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
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+ The Positives
June 2020 turnover rent recovered to 90.4% of 4Q19 average
Portfolio occupancy inched by 0.2ppts QoQ to 97.0% (4Q19: 98.8%)
NPI margin improved to 81.6% in 1H20, from 80.7% in 1H19
Dasin Retail TrustACCUMULATE (Maintained), TP: $0.91, Last: $0.82SGD mn 1H20 1H19 YoY Comments
Gross revenue 37.1 35.2 5.2% Higher due to acquisition of Doumen Metro Mall
(acquired 12 Sep 2019) which contributed $8.6mn,
partially offset by rental rebates provided to
tenants
Net Property Income 30.3 28.5 6.4%
Net Income 0.7 11.9 NM Mainly due to higher unrealised foreign exchange
loss of $9.1mn in 1H20 (1H19: +S$1.1mn) due to
weakening of SGD against USD and HKD on USD and
HKD denominated loans.
Amount avail. for dist. 8.8 10.7 -17.1%
DPU (Cents)* 1.92 3.40 -43.5% Due to lower earnings and englarged share base
from preferential offering and fewer units with
distribution waiver
* with distribution waiver
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- The Negatives
Portfolio valuation fell by 4.6% in RMB terms
13.8% of leases by GRI expiring in FY20 to be renewed
Dasin Retail TrustACCUMULATE (Maintained), TP: $0.91, Last: $0.82
Outlook
Positioned to benefit of transformation of the Great Bay Area
ROFR pipeline of 18 properties spanning four cities –six of which are still under construction
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of S$0.91
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City Development LimitedShoring up recurring income
Natalie Ong
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
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+ The Positives
Respectable 356 units sold in SG in 1H20 (-29.5%, 1H19: 505 units), despite 10 weeksof showroom closures
Unlocking additional GFA throughredevelopment of Fuji Xerox and CentralMall
- The Negatives
Hospitality segment hardest high with lossesexpected to continue
City Development LimitedBUY (Maintained), TP: $10.68, Last: $7.97
Outlook
Streamlining of M&C and Sincere operations, divestment of non-core hotel and China retail assets
Maintain BUY with a lower TP of S$10.68
Results at a glance
(SGD mn) 1H20 1H19 YoY Comments
Gross revenue 1,072.9 1,596.5 -32.8% Hotel operations accounted for 82% of the decline
Gross profit 446.5 771.4 -42.1%
Operating profit 61.7 423.6 -85.4%
PBT comprising: 13.8 490.3 -97.2% Lower divestment gains (1H20: $49.9mn, 1H19:
$197.2mn)
- Property Devt 115.0 179.6 -36.0% Due to timing of income recognition and lower sales
value from few units sold from mass market projects
in 1H20 vs ultra-luxury projects in 1H19
- Hotel Ops (208.2) 29.5 n.m. 28% of 152 hotels closed, RevPAR -56.6%
- Investment Ppty 26.3 258.4 -89.8% Largely due to rental rebates provided and lower
divestment gains (1H20: $26.4mn, 1H19 $153.9mn)
- Others 80.7 22.7 254.8% Higher due to divestment gain on technology
investment and higher interest income from property
financing business
PATMI 3.1 362.0 -99.1%
Source: Company, PSR
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Singapore REITs SectorCalmer waters
Natalie Ong
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
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FTSE REIT Index outperforming STI
FSTREI VS. STI
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
580
680
780
880
980
Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20FSTREI IndexSTI (rebased)FSTREH Index (rebased)
INDEX RETURN (%)
1MTH 3MTH YTD 1YR
FSTREI RETURN 0.2 8.9 (7.1) (4.2)
FSTREH RETURN (3.2) 1.4 (23.3) (18.6)
STI RETURN (3.0) 1.1 (18.9) (15.6)
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S-REIT yield spread at the +0.3 s.d. level
FTSE Straits Times REIT Index Yield Spread over 10YSGS
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Dividend yield: 4.6%
2019 Ave: 4.6%
Div. yield spread: 3.7%
2019 Ave: 2.6%
FED rate: 0% - 0.25%,
after150bps cut
3M SOR: 0.21%
10YSGS: 0.89%
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Recovery by subsector
Healthcare Hospitality Retail Commercial Industrial Diversified
Change YTD -2.0% -40.0% -24.3% -23.3% 10.3% -25.0%
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Implications for S-REITs
Slower leasing activity, mostly renewals
Higher vacancy rates
Lower rents and/or negative rental
reversions
Markets are “frozen”, buyer-seller price
expectations widening
Structural shift in future demand for real
estate
Outlook Mitigants
Tenants are locked in by existing leases
Relatively low supply coming online across
the subsectors
Construction slippage will provide near-term
support
Supply will adjust to help the real estate
sector achieve a healthy equilibrium
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Office – Rents and prices dipped, weighed down by central
Industry Central FringeOccupancy
(%)
168.7 172.2 142.8 87.9
0.0% -2.3% 1.1% -1.1 ppts
-4.6% -5.1% -4.6% -0.6 ppts
Office Rental Index
Rebased 4Q1998 = 100
2Q20
QoQ
YoY
Industry Central Fringe
126.9 129.9 119.2
-4.3% -4.3% 5.1%
-12.1% -11.9% 1.1%YoY
Office Price Index
Rebased 4Q1998 = 100
2Q20
QoQ
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Office – Muted supply to provide near-term support
CBD Incentive Scheme (Redevelopment 2021/22)
AXA Tower (700K sq ft)
Fuji Xerox Tower (354K sq ft)
Central Mall (131K sq ft)
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Office – Continued relevance of office workspace
Resilience of office-using tenants
Muted supply coming online
Office synonymous with mentoring, collaboration,
innovation and corporate culture
Potential positives:
Lower desk-density and split office may increase
demand
Demand for flex-space
Potential negatives:
Risk of rightsizing due to adoption of telecommuting
Hub-and-spoke occupier strategy
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Retail – Lifted by Phase 2 of reopening
Industry Central FringeOccupancy
(%)
95.2 93.6 96.1 90.4
-3.5% 0.1% -4.9% -1.6 ppts
-1.3% -2.1% -0.9% -1.9 ppts
2Q20
QoQ
Retail Rental Index
Rebased 4Q1998 = 100
YoY
Central Central Fringe
108.8 93.8 117.1
-1.5% -0.6% -4.3%
-1.8% -2.0% -4.5%
Retail Price Index
Rebased 4Q1998 = 100
YoY
2Q20
QoQ
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Retail – Inconsequential supply as part of integrated projets
Industry Central FringeOccupancy
(%)
95.2 93.6 96.1 90.4
-3.5% 0.1% -4.9% -1.6 ppts
-1.3% -2.1% -0.9% -1.9 ppts
2Q20
QoQ
Retail Rental Index
Rebased 4Q1998 = 100
YoY
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Retail – Recovery in Phase 2
SG Retail Sales YoY % (excl. Motor Vehicle Sales)
RSI
(excl. motor
vehicles)
RSI
(Dept stores)
RSI
(Supermarkets)
RSI
(Fashion)
F&B Index
Jun-20 -23.3 -67.7 46.3 -63.1 -42.7
Jun-19 -0.4 0.3 0.5 7.6 4.6
95% of tenants operating
F&B dine in recovering well, postponement not
cancellation of spending
Capacity constraints but offset by more balanced
customer-flow throughout the day
Flexible leasing strategies:
shorter lease term,
higher risk-sharing
Digitalisation to future-proof operations
Ecosystem for tenant and customer stickiness
Leads for new business
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Retail – Recovery in Phase 2
SG Retail Sales YoY % (excl. Motor Vehicle Sales)
RSI
(excl. motor
vehicles)
RSI
(Dept stores)
RSI
(Supermarkets)
RSI
(Fashion)
F&B Index
Jun-20 -23.3 -67.7 46.3 -63.1 -42.7
Jun-19 -0.4 0.3 0.5 7.6 4.6
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Hospitality – Lingering fears will impede recovery
Fast lane arrangements for essential travel
General travel to Brunei and NZ from 1 Sept
Hotels can apply to reopen for staycation booking
from 3 July 2020
$320mn SingapoRediscovers Vouchers to boost
domestic tourism
Luxury/upscale and resort-styled hotels to benefit
from staycation demand
Significant discounts will supress RevPARs
Recovery hinges on vaccine timeline
Source: CEIC, PSR
Visitor Arrivals Hotel RevPAR
(S$)
Hotel Occupancy
(%)
Hotel Average
Room Rate (S$)
Jun-20 2,170 37 54.3 68
Jun-19 1,551,781 181 86.1 211
YoY% -99.86% -79.57% -67.61%
RevPAR per
room/nightAverage Luxury Upscale Mid-tier Economy
Jun-20 37 47 47 35 30
Jun-19 181 371 215 145 91
YoY% -79.57% -87.36% -77.97% -75.64% -66.49%
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Industrial – Resilient, for now
Industrial Rental Index
Rebased 4Q2012 = 100Industry Occupancy
2Q20 90.3 89.4
QoQ (%) -0.7% 0.2 ppts
YoY (%) -0.8% 0.1 ppts
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Industrial – Resilient, for now
Industry Biz Park Factory Warehouse
89.4 85.2 89.7 88.3
0.2 ppts -0.8 ppts 0.1 ppts 0.9 ppts
0.1 ppts -0.8 ppts 0.2 ppts -0.4 ppts
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
Industrial Occupancy (%)
2Q20
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Industrial – Resilient, for now
Breakdown of Industrial Supply
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Industrial – Resilient, for now
Low reliance on premise to generate revenue for
business parks
High reliance on premise to generate revenue for
light industrial, hi-spec, factories, warehouse,
data centres
High percentage of tenants operating in premise
during circuit breaker
Potential positives:
Heightened demand for logistic and data
centre assets
Higher stock piling levels
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Phillip Securities’ Stock Calls
1 Covered by PSR under a paid research agreement2 Covered by PSR under the ‘Research Talent Development Grant Scheme’ administered by SGX
3M Daily
Average
Volume
Share
Price S$
P/NA
V (x)PSR Rating
Target Price
S$
FY20e DPU
cents
FY21e DPU
cents
FY20e DPU
Yield
FY21e DPU
Yield
Total
return
Ascott Residence Trust 8.7 0.87 0.69 BUY 1.08 5.37 6.99 6.2% 8.0% 30.3%
CapitaLand Mall Trust 18.2 1.85 0.92 BUY 2.33 10.78 12.81 5.8% 6.9% 31.8%
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 2.8 2.38 1.08 ACCUMULATE 2.61 9.88 13.56 4.2% 5.7% 13.8%
Dasin Retail Trust1 0.6 0.82 0.60 ACCUMULATE 0.91 5.00 5.62 6.1% 6.9% 17.8%
CapitaLand Commercial Trust 13.4 1.59 0.89 ACCUMULATE 1.91 7.67 9.12 4.8% 5.7% 24.9%
Manulife US REIT 3.8 0.75 0.93 BUY 0.90 6.39 6.49 8.6% 8.7% 29.4%
Prime US REIT2 1.0 0.79 0.89 BUY 0.94 7.04 7.32 8.9% 9.3% 27.9%
IREIT Global Trust2 0.5 0.70 0.77 NEUTRAL 0.68 4.92 4.57 7.1% 6.6% 4.9%
Ascendas REIT 12.9 3.40 1.57 ACCUMULATE 3.63 16.72 16.9 4.9% 5.0% 11.7%
Keppel DC REIT 5.7 2.96 2.59 NEUTRAL 2.57 8.99 9.55 3.0% 3.2% -10.1%
Note: 3M Daily Average Volume
is calculated based on the total Source: Bloomberg, PSR, updated 23 August 20201 Covered by PSR under a paid research agreement
2 Covered by PSR under the ‘Research Talent Development Grant Scheme’ administered by SGX
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Yoma Strategic HoldingsTopline positive amidst COVID-19
Tan Jie Hui
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
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+ The Positives
Yoma Land’s revenue is well supported by backlog of unrecognized revenue.
Real Estate Development registered a 45.5% YoY revenue increase. It is largely attributable to the revenue recognized from the completion of City Loft.
Unrecognised revenue now amounted to US$17mn as at 3Q20 vis-à-vis more than US$20mn in 2Q20.
Yoma Motors registered revenue growth of 33.3% largely attributable to the Heavy Equipment segment
More tractors and implements were sold due to pent up demand after many quarters of weaknesses arising from the exceptionally heavy monsoon last year. New Holland sold 124 tractors in the quarter compared to 61 tractors in 3M-Jun2019.
Revenue from Yoma Financial Services increased by 5.6% YoY underpinned by an enlarged finance lease portfolio in Yoma Fleet.
Vehicle numbers for Yoma Fleet grew by 11.1% year-on-year to 1,290 vehicles and third-party assets under management stood at US$45.6 million as of 30 June 2020.
Yoma Strategic HoldingsBUY (Maintained), TP: S$0.46, Last: S$0.29
(US$’mn) 3M-Jun19 3M-Jun20 YoY
Yoma Land 5.6 6.8 21.4%
Real estate development 3.3 4.8 45.5%
Real estate services 2.3 2.0 -13.0%
Yoma F&B 6.8 4.7 -30.9%
Yoma Financial Services 1.8 1.9 5.6%
Yoma Motors 4.2 5.6 33.3%
Investment and Corporate 0.2 0.2 -
Group Revenue 18.6 19.2 3.2%
Wave Money remains EBITDA positive despite weaker transaction numbers.
Due to the Thingyan holidays amidst the Myanmar New Year in April and COVID-19 measures, Wave Money’s OTC business was largely affected, which resulted in a decline in revenue and transaction numbers of 16.5% and 25.3% respectively from the previous quarter.
However, its e-wallet business continued to record double digit growth rate month-on-month as more people opt for cashless transactions and is on track to reach its 1.3 million MAUs target by December 2020.
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Yoma Strategic HoldingsBUY (Maintained), TP: S$0.46, Last: S$0.29
Outlook
Pre-COVID, CityLoft has been recording a healthy booking rate at >50 units per month. CityLoft’s booking rate slowed significantly from April to May during COVID-19, but as the economy started to reopen at the end of May, buying interest noted a recovery. Booking rate was nearing half of pre-COVID levels by July.
Agriculture sector had been resilient and is expected to grow by 0.7% for the year. Meanwhile, the Myanmar government and NGOs are also supporting the agricultural industry by providing lower-interest loans for buying inputs and giving greater flexibility on loan repayments.
During this period, Wave Money will continue to work with various organisations such as Myanmar Agricultural development to disburse loans for farmers and Social Security Board to disburse medical and COVID-19 quarantine relief through the adoption of Wave Pay.
Yoma F&B witnessed improved performance MoM as business starts to recover in the coming quarter. Sales for July was nearing-pre-COVID level with same store sales growth recorded in certain days.
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of S$0.46.
- The Negatives
Yoma F&B revenue was down 31% YoY due to COVID-19 measures.
3Q20 revenue declined 31% YoY due to government-imposed lock downs, curfews and prohibitions on dine-in between April to mid-May and temporary store closures in severely affected trade zones.
The month of April was most affected as revenue fell 50% YoY. June recorded a smaller decline of c.25% YoY since the Myanmar government allowed restaurants to resume operations conditional upon adherence to certain guidelines at the end of May.
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Timothy Ang
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24 August 2020
SG Bonds Weekly
Week 35
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SG Bonds Weekly – Week 35
Last week:
• Olam International Ltd new
5.5-year 4% bond issued,
issue size S$400mn,
orderbooks S$900mn.
This week:
• Thurs-Fri, 27-28 Aug: Kansas
Fed Annual Policy Symposium
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Wholesale bonds - S$250k
Bonds50 - S$50k
Requirements
• Accredited Investor: Min S$2mn in assets, S$1mn in financial assets or at least S$300k in annual income.
• Custodian account with Phillip
Contact
• Phillip Bond Desk: 6212 1818
Bonds50 – Buy bonds in S$50k size
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Phillip Model Bond Portfolio
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Centurion Corporation Ltd: Stable so far (Credit View)
Positives
• Gearing and liquidity still adequate. Gearing stable at 54.1%.23% asset loss buffer and 33% debt headroom before MTNcovenants breached. Liquidity is high with cash/STborrowings at 1.67x. Secured bank moratoriums to extendbank loan repayments.
• New Contract with JTC to manage 4200 PBWA beds for 6months, about 25% of total PBWA portfolio size.
Negatives
• Higher provisions and rental delinquencies from PBWAcustomers. Provisions increased to S$1.5mn in 1H20 fromS$52k in 1H19.
• PBSA occupancies fell across the board. From travelrestrictions and university courses uncertainty. But PBWAEBIT contributions enough to cover interest expenses.
Outlook: PBWA will support the group for the time being. Headwinds expected to continue for PBSA. Concerns on rent receivables may be softenby soon to be completed testing of dorm workers and resumption of construction activities, of which PBWA has 48% exposure to.
Neutral on the CENSP 5.5% 22NC21 bond as we continue to monitor COVID-19 impact. But we think it is an interesting short-tenor play as it has astep up of 2.5% if not called on 1 Feb 2021. Coupon will step up to 8%, which is incentive for Centurion to call, and note that they have enoughshort-term liquidity to do so. Yield to worse is 4.80% and yield to maturity is 7.09%.
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Paul Chew
Head Of Research
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24 August 2020
JEP Holdings Ltd1H20 Results
Aviation to hibernate
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JEP Holdings (REDUCE (Downgrade), TP: S$0.158, Last: S$0.19)
Positives
• Revenue was relatively resilient. Weakness in revenue came fromprecision manufacturing and trading whilst equipment manufacturingexpanded. The sales breakdown of these divisions were not disclosed.Total revenue only declined by 5% despite the disruption in operationsfrom the lockdown in Malaysia and Singapore.
Negatives
• Rise in administrative expenses. We were surprised that administrativeexpenses rose 8% YoY to S$3.2mn despite the decline in revenue. Theincrease was due to higher provision of staff cost related to performance.
Outlook: The collapse in international air travel has reversed from the previous insufficiency in aircraft production capacity to the current overcapacity.Rough 18 months for JEP as aviation equipment orders have frozen. The Boeing Company reported aircraft deliveries of only 19 in 2Q20, a 80% YoY dropfrom 90 in 2Q19. Some of the initiatives we believe JEP will undergo during this period of consolidation in aviation are: (i) UMS can tap on JEP to utilisetheir excess capacity for semiconductor orders; (ii) Further realign cost and production into the Malaysian factories; (iii) Pursue more semiconductorequipment and printing projects, in particular customers looking to shift out of China.
Downgrade to REDUCE with lower TP: With the lack of visibility, we are benchmarking our target price to book value. We still expect to be profitable butdepressed in the medium term. Any valuation based on earnings would understate the earnings potential of the aircraft machining operations.
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Paul Chew
Head Of Research
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24th August 2020
Thai Beverage PLC3Q20 Business Update
Margins expanded during the lockdown
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Thai Beverage (BUY (Maintain), TP: S$0.82, Last: S$0.635)
Positives
• EBITDA margins expanded despite the drop in revenue. Revenue wasdown 15% YoY but EBITDA margins managed to expand due toaggressive cost-cutting especially in marketing and promotion expenses.EBITDA for the key spirits business only fell 3% YoY.
Negatives
• SABECO is the weakest link. In the 3Q20, beer volumes contracted almost20% due to SABECO. Domestic beer volume declined only marginally andmarket share is at a record high. The regulatory ban on drink drivingcontinues to curb beer consumption in Vietnam.
Outlook: As restaurants and entertainment venues reopen, we expect a recovery for THBEV operations in 4Q20. Beer sales in SABECO remains a concern,as the impact from regulation will weigh on consumption in the medium term.
Maintain BUY with unchanged TP: We maintain our BUY recommendation. FY20e PATMI is cut by 11% as we expect SABECO beer sales to remainsluggish. We are rolling over our target 18x PE to a normalised FY21e earning.
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Paul Chew
Head Of Research
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24 August 2020
Singapore Telecommunications Ltd1Q21 Business Update
No respite expected in 2020
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SingTel (Neutral (Maintained), TP: S$2.44, Last: S$2.35)
Positives
• Optus mobile was relatively resilient. Australia mobile servicerevenue was relatively resilient, declining only 5.5% YoY at A$860mn.There was growth in the combined postpaid and SIM only planssubscriber base by 2.3% YoY.
Negatives
• Singapore mobile ARPU still slipping. ARPU still weighed down by theabsence of roaming revenue. Mobile blended ARPU is down toanother record low of S$23 (-27.7% YoY) in 1Q21.
• NBN pain for Optus. Without NBN, Australia consumer EBIT fell anincredulous 82% YoY to A$41mn. Weakness was across all segmentswith broadband bearing the brunt, in our opinion. On-net broadbandsubscribers are down 65% YoY whilst burdened by high operating cost.
Outlook: The two main pressure point for SingTel is Singapore mobile and Australia broadband. We expect at least another two quarters of weak YoYoperating performance.
Maintain NEUTRAL with unchanged TP of S$2.44. We are keeping our FY21e PATMI estimates unchanged. We do not see a turnaround in the resultsuntil international travel resumes materially for roaming revenue to recover. Australia needs to complete its NBN transition and remove the significantcost of running its existing broadband network to expect any recovery.
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Week 35 - Phillip Singapore Weekly
Paul Chew
Head Of Research
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
24 August 2020
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Week 35 – Tactical Views
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COVID-19 Watch: Dropping in the U.S., KR is rising
Source: CEIC, WHO, PSR; *Large economies (Asia/Europe) - China, Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, France,
Japan, S Korea
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
13Mar 13Apr 13May 13Jun 13Jul 13Aug
COVID-19 New Daily Cases (7DMA)
Large Economies United States World (RHS)
571
257
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
21-Feb 13-Mar 3-Apr 24-Apr 15-May 5-Jun 26-Jun 17-Jul 7-Aug
COVID-19 New daily cases: CH, KR, Italy (7DMA)
China S Korea Italy - RHS
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COVID-19 Watch: Community cases down to 2
Source: PSR, MOH
56
57
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
29-Jan-20 29-Feb-20 31-Mar-20 30-Apr-20 31-May-20 30-Jun-20 31-Jul-20
SG: Daily new Community
1 week before Daily Cases 7 Day Moving Average
Circ
uit
Brea
ker:
7 A
pr
Phas
e 1:
2 Ju
ne
Phas
e 2:
19
June
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Activity indicators – Stalling, still staying at home
Source: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility ;
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19-Jan 9-Feb 1-Mar 22-Mar 12-Apr 3-May 24-May 14-Jun 5-Jul 26-Jul 16-Aug
SG: Apple Mobility Trends (7DMA)
CB/Phase 1/Phase 2 Driving Transit
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SG: Healthcare admissions collapsed
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
SG: Hospital Admissions 3MMA (YoY)
SG: Public Hospitals SG: Private Hospitals
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
SG: Specialist and Dental Admissions 3MMA (YoY)
Specialist Dental
Source: PSR, CEIC
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SG: Air transport still very weak
1966
17
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017 2018 2020
SIA: Passengers Carried (000s - 3MMA)
32792
4834
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017 2018 2020
Changi Aircraft Movement (3MMA)
Source: PSR, CEIC
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CH: Recovery is underway
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-18 Apr-20
CH: Residential Space Sold (3MMA - YoY)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
CH: Auto Sales
2018 2019 2020
Source: PSR, CEIC
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US Elections: Odds is a Biden win
Source: PSR, oddsshark,Trump +115 or win $120 for $100 bet; Biden -150 or bet $135 to win $100,
realclearpolitiocs.com
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
4-Mar 4-Apr 4-May 4-Jun 4-Jul 4-Aug
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
Trump Biden
2016 Election Poll
% Seats Hillary Biden
Florida 1.2% 29 47.8% 50.3%
Michigan 0.2% 16 47.3% 48.7%
Pennsylvania 0.7% 20 47.5% 49.5%
Wischonsin 0.8% 10 46.5% 50.0%
Hillary Lost -2.1% 39
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ANALYST COVERAGE EMAIL
Paul Chew Head of Research [email protected]
Terence Chua Consumer [email protected]
Natalie Ong REITs | Property [email protected]
Tay Wee Kuang Banking | Healthcare [email protected]
Tan Jie Hui Small-Mid Cap [email protected]
Chua Wei Ren Technical [email protected]
Timothy Ang Credit (Bonds) [email protected]
Siti Nursyazwina Research Admin [email protected]
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