Please Stand ByJohn Thomas for Macro Millionaire
Wednesday, March 14, 2010
The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Impact of the Japanese Earthquakeand the huge trading opportunities it creates
Emergency Strategy ReviewProfiting from disaster
Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
March 14, 2011
www.madhedgefundtrader.com
The Collapse of the Japanese EconomyThe loss of the world’s third largest economy
*Millions in Northern Japan are without food, water, and heat in freezing temperatures. Stores in most major cities have been cleaned out of food and gasoline.
*Japan’s rail system has shut down. Tokyo subways have stopped running. No one can get to work.
*Most of industrial Japan has shut down to count the dead
*Severe power shortages mean rollingblack out in the industrial heartland.No quick comeback for the economy.
*Mass evacuation of expatriates fleeing a nuclear melt down is underway.
Japanese Government Response
*The BOJ has been ordered to “save Japan”
*The largest intervention in the history of the foreign exchange markets
*$186 billion of dollars bought, yen sold in the first hour
*Could mark a 15 year top in the yen
*Quantitative easing expanded to $500 billion
*Ramping up the printing presses
Macro Millionaire Performance
• February +3.98% March month to date
First 14 weeks of Trading+ 20.61%
• Versus 10.5% for the S&P500
Portfolio ReviewBuilding More Aggressive Shorts
5 out of 6 positions will do well, and no. 6 (Yen) may turnPerfectly positioned to benefit from the current crisis
Asset Class BreakdownRisk Adjusted Basis
equities (1) -5.00%Volatility (2) 5.60%Yen (3) -26.00%bonds -5.00%Euro (4) -5.00%oil -2.50%
total -37.90%
10%
11%
53%
10%
10%
5%
Portfolio Risk Weightings1 2 3 4 5 6
Small is beautiful
Our Japan Positionstop loss at $14.85 = ¥79
$186 billion of BOJ Intervention in the first hour
The Last Yen Peak Was After the 1995 Kobe Earthquake
The Earthquake’s Global ImpactThe earthquake that is shaking financial markets around the world
*Slower economic Growth world wide
*A stock market crash in Japan
*Flight to safety bid for bonds and the dollar
*Sharp sell of in commodity prices.
*Global electronics parts shortage
*The “RISK OFF” trade is in play
Equities
*The world’s third largest economy is flipping from +2% quarterly growth to -3%
*All company earnings forecasts have been rendered meaningless
*No one had a giant destructive earthquake or a nuclear melt down in their budget for 2011
*”RISK OFF” = sell stock
S & P 500 (SPY)the 50 day moving average is brokentaking a run at the 200 day average
Volatility (VIX)watch the higher lows and the higher highs
Two Year Volatilitystill looks cheap
Oil *Slower global growth brings less demand for oil
*The Middle Eastern picture is calming
*Supply glut in the US futures long in Chicago is 6X Oklahoma storage take delivery, or sell
*Will Obama open the strategic petroleum reserve? This market the last two peaks in oil prices
Oil (USO)50 day moving average at $95 oil, 200 day at $90
The Position You’re Glad You Don’t HaveJapan Equity ETF (EWJ)
Bonds
*Flight to safety bid is on
*Recovery of an oversold condition that has built up in the last six months
*Profit taking on shorts by hedge funds
*Head and shoulders bottom onthe charts
*Trading rally only the 20 year bear market in bonds has only just started, but will take a rest
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Commodities
*Slower economic growth means less demand for industrial commodities
*Hedge fund profit taking on major long positions
*Auto related commodities like platinum (PPLT) and Palladium (PALL) are especially hard hit.
Copper ETF (CU)
Palladium (PALL)
Trade Sheet
*Stocks-Keep your shorts, the earthquake will give us some downside juice*Bonds-Look for a rally and short volatility*Commodities- Selling off continues, earthquake delays recovery*Currencies-sell the yen and euro, flight to safety bid for dollar*Precious Metals- avoid, have run too far, possible short play setting up again*Volatility-Run your longs, still rising*Real estate-dieing a slow death
Follow This Letter!
*Buy and hold is dead, trade or die! Don’t rush into the market now, wait for the market to come to you
*Now is the time to rely on a newsletter where the writer speaks Japanese and has 40 years of experience in Japan
*Learn which long term trends will reassert themselves
*Volatility will remain high. Learn how to maximize your gains while limiting your risk
*Market timing is crucial, I will send email alertson when to move
*The black swans are coming
*Know which instruments to trade
Macro Millionaire Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com
March 31, 2011 New York City, 12:00 noon
April 28, 2011 Phoenix, Arizona
European Strategy Luncheons
April 4, 2011 London, England 12:00 noon
April 8, 2011 Paris, France 12:00 noon
To Access my Research Data Base Please Go towww.madhedgefundtrader.com