Postharvest Loss Prevention, Postharvest Loss Prevention, ICT, and Innovation in MeasurementICT, and Innovation in Measurement
Steve Sonka, DirectorSteve Sonka, Director
May 21, 2013May 21, 2013
AGENDAAGENDA
• Future food security challenges
• Several “views” of postharvest loss
• The ADM Institute – Themes– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss– Innovation in measurement
Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase 70% by 2050 70% by 2050 (FAO; 2009)
Per capita food consumption
Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double From 2005 to 2050 From 2005 to 2050 (NAS; 2011)
2030 Food Demands Require 2030 Food Demands Require About 200 Million More Hectares About 200 Million More Hectares (McKinsey; 2011)
Commodity Price Changes Commodity Price Changes Tell Interesting Story Tell Interesting Story (McKinsey; 2011)
AGENDAAGENDA
• Future food security challenges
• Several “views” of postharvest loss
• The ADM Institute – Themes– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss– Innovation in measurement
X
PHL Varies by Region PHL Varies by Region (FAO; 2011)
Kgper year
Per capita food waste and food loss (Kg/year)
DATA!
PHL Varies by Commodity PHL Varies by Commodity (FAO; 2011)
PHL Varies Across Growing ConditionsPHL Varies Across Growing Conditions(IBRD/WB; 2011)
PHL Varies Between Countries:PHL Varies Between Countries:For Same Crop For Same Crop (FAO; 2002)
PHL Varies Between States PHL Varies Between States Within One Country Within One Country (ADM Institute; 2012)
A More Specific Perspective:A More Specific Perspective:Rice in SE Asia Rice in SE Asia (IRRI; 2011)
ConsumptionCrop
In SE Asia, physical losses range from 15-25%.
Quality losses range from 10-30% (loss in value)
Reducing PHL and Increasing YieldsReducing PHL and Increasing YieldsHave High Potential Have High Potential (McKinsey; 2011)
Little Attention Is Devoted Little Attention Is Devoted to PHL and Yields to PHL and Yields (McKinsey; 2011)
Why Reduce Postharvest Loss?Why Reduce Postharvest Loss?Some HypothesesSome Hypotheses
• Estimates suggest 1/3 of agricultural production is “wasted” and doesn’t reach food consumer
• Investment required to reduce PHL could be modest
• Technology advances should make reduction more feasible and less expensive
• Arable land, water, energy are in limited supply – reducing PHL can lessen pressure on scarce resources
AGENDAAGENDA
• Future food security challenges
• Several “views” of postharvest loss
• The ADM Institute – Themes– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss– Innovation in measurement
X
X
Timeline of the ADM InstituteTimeline of the ADM Institute
Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops
Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops
2011
Vision StatementVision Statement
Key elements include:
• To be an international information and technology hub
• To encompass technologies, practices and systems
• To focus on staple crops in key agricultural domains
The ADM InstituteThe ADM Institute
Timeline of the ADM InstituteTimeline of the ADM Institute
Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated
Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated
2012Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops
Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops
2011
Four ThemesFour Themes
Scientific Animations Without Borders (SAWBO)Scientific Animations Without Borders (SAWBO)
• Uses animations to disseminate information, particularly for low-literate populations– Images and audio to
make information easily understood
– Dissemination and access through internet, cell phones and tablets
Timeline of the ADM InstituteTimeline of the ADM Institute
2013
Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated
Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated
2012Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops
Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops
2011
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest LossSustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
ReducedLoss (%)
Value$s
CurrentSetting
D
SCost of Reduction
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest LossSustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
100 % Reduction
1/3rd of production
is lost
Unsustainable Gap
ReducedLoss (%)
Value$s
CurrentSetting
SCost of Reduction
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest LossSustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
100 % Reduction
DD1Enhanced Quality
S1
Sustainable Gain
Measurement !!!!!
MeasurementMeasurement
“What's measured improves” – Peter F. Drucker
"Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement. If you can't measure something, you can't understand it. If you can't understand it, you can't control it. If you can't control it, you can't improve it." – H. James Harrington
"What gets measured gets done, what gets measured and fed back gets done well, what gets rewarded gets repeated.“ – John E. Jones
Innovation in MeasurementInnovation in Measurement
• Actual loss in specific local settings• Interventions to reduce loss• Effectiveness of interventions over time
• Actual loss in specific local settings• Interventions to reduce loss• Effectiveness of interventions over time
What to Measure
• Low cost• Systemic• ICT enabled
but probably for non PHL reasons
• Low cost• Systemic• ICT enabled
but probably for non PHL reasons
How to Measure
““Practice” to DatePractice” to Date
• Identify problem
• Quantify (measure/estimate) losses
• Identify causes
• Propose technical solutions
• Fund project to implement solutions
Move to next project
Systems as Events/Patterns/StructureSystems as Events/Patterns/Structure
Patterns
Structure
The visible outcomesEvents
Changes over time
Determines patterns
ExplicitTacit
Observation Documentation
AnalysisImplementation
Knowledge-Creating SystemsKnowledge-Creating Systems
Exploit the Most Versatile SensorExploit the Most Versatile Sensor
Phone Penetration StatisticsPhone Penetration Statistics
6.7 Billion mobile phones world-wide at the end of 2012
India in 2012• 925 million mobile phone subscribers• 75% of the population • #2 Global Market (after China)
Brazil in 2012• 259 million mobile phone subscribers• 130% of the population• #5 Global Market (after China, India, US, and Indonesia)
Nigeria in 2012• 107 million mobile phone subscribers• 65% of the population• #10 Global Market
Just under half of the population in India (i.e., more than
500 million people) use text messages on a regular basis
Tweets on Price of Rice Tweets on Price of Rice (UN Global Pulse and Crime Hexagon; 2011)
Price of Bread in Uruguay Price of Bread in Uruguay (UN Global Pulse and PriceStats, 2011)
Example: Looking to Re-fuel after SandyExample: Looking to Re-fuel after Sandy
Dataset Hurricane Sandy
Time duration 14 days (Nov.2-15, 2012)
Locations 16 cities in East Coasts
# of users tweeted 7,583
# of tweets 12,931
# of users crawled in social network 704,941
# of follower-followee links 37,597
Top tweets selected for annotation 140
Address Source DependencyAddress Source Dependency
37Finding Gas in NYC after Hurricane Sandy
Social network helps !U
ncon
firm
ed t
wee
ts
Community Knowledge Worker Community Knowledge Worker (Grameen Foundation, 2010)
• Grameen Foundation is implementing an information network, Community Knowledge Worker (CKW), in Uganda, using mobile technology to delivery information to and from farmers.
• CKW: an ICT enabled agricultural extension worker
• Information to farmers:– Market price: 42 commodities in 20 districts
– Weather information: Up to 3 days in advance
– Farming best practices
– Supplier directory
– Market platform: link buyers and sellers
• Mobile survey-based collection of farm data– Raw data
– Analyses
– GIS data
For sound medium and long term planning, what do we need to know?
Location specific, timely and accurate information on rice production, supplies, and trends
In particular:
•What is the harvested area?
•When will it be harvested?
•What is the yield?
A combination of remote sensing and crop yield modeling can
provide this information under certain conditions
IRRI’s Approach on MeasurementIRRI’s Approach on Measurement
Optical Radar
Concept of RIICE Concept of RIICE (RIICE; 2011)
cyancyan late Dec to early Janblueblue mid-Jan redred & greengreen still under land preparation in mid-Jan
Color shows crop establishment
• planting dates• rice area estimates• crop status & yield estimates• crop damage estimates• crop insurance
Sentinel 1A & B satellitesGlobal coverage every 6 days 20-m resolutionFree
Global rice monitoring and forecasting system:Global rice monitoring and forecasting system:Radar-based real time crop monitoring system for riceRadar-based real time crop monitoring system for rice
Open DataOpen Data
DefinitionDefinition
“Open data is often referred to as the concept that information should be freely available to the public, without restriction or charge for its use by others. In the food and agricultural realm, open data is an essential piece of finding the answers we’ll need to feed the world.” (USDA, 2013)
ActionsActions• Launched The Food, Agriculture, and Rural “data community”
on Data.gov• The Millennium Challenge Corporation released an open
evaluation data catalog• Launched USAID.gov/Developer
Closing CommentsClosing Comments
• Society’s future food security – daunting but done before
• Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss has potential to contribute to the challenge
• Substantial progress unlikely without innovation in measurement– Low cost– Systemic– ICT enabled
Email: [email protected]: [email protected]
Website: http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.eduWebsite: http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.edu