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Potential benefits of long-distance electricity transmission in China for air quality and climate
Wei Peng*, Denise Mauzerall, Jiahai Yuan, Yu Zhao, Meiyun Lin, Qiang Zhang* Science, Technology and Environmental Policy Program
Woodrow Wilson of Public and International Affairs Princeton University
33rd USAEE Annual MeetingPittsburgh, PA
Oct 2015
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China: Air Pollution and Climate Challenges
Local Issue
Severity: - 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010
Recent action: Record-high smog events in recent yearsChina declare(d) war against air pollution
Air pollution
Global Issue
Severity: World largest carbon
emitter
Recent action: US-China Climate deal
Peak carbon emissions by 2030
Climate
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Smog Events
Tiananmen Square, Beijing, Jan 2013
Source:http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/29/asia/gallery/beijing-smog/
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China: Air Pollution and Climate Challenges
Local Issue
Severity: - 1.2 million premature deaths in 2010 (GBD 2010)
Recent action: Record-high smog events in recent yearsChina declare(d) war against air pollution
Air pollution
Global Issue
Severity: World largest carbon
emitter
Recent action: US-China Climate deal
Peak carbon emissions by 2030
Climate
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Electricity Transmission Corridors for Air Pollution Control
12 west-to-east transmission lines to reduce eastern coal power generation and the associated air pollution
UHV: ultra-high-voltagei.e. 1000KV AC or ±800KV DC
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Objective
- Estimate air quality and climate benefits of the proposed transmission lines, if powered only by coal v.s mostly by renewables
- Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the energy-by-wire strategy to the most commonly-used bulk energy transfer strategy at present, i.e. coal-by-rail
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Scenario Name Explanation
Base Case, BASE Actual electricity production and emissions in 2010
Eastern provinces Western provinces
Coal-by-rail, CbR - small, inefficient coal units+ large, efficient coal units No change
Energy-by-wire
Coal-by-wire, CbW
- small, inefficient coal units
+ large, efficient coal units
(RE+Coal)-by-wire, (RE+C)bW
+ renewable (wind and hydro) and large coal units
Method: Scenario analysis
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Method: Integrated assessment
ΔElectricity generation
ΔAir pollutant emissions
ΔSimulated air quality
ΔMortality impact
ΔMonetized benefits
Air quality benefits:
ΔElectricity Generation ΔCO2 emissions ΔMonetized value
Climate benefits:
Cost: Annualized transmission and production costs
IM: -1/3 EX: double
CO2(national)
Coal-based: -1%(RE+C)bW: -3%
SO2(IM+EX) and NOx(IM+EX)
Coal-based: -3%, -7% (RE+C)bW: -6%, -9%
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Surface PM2.5 simulated using regional air pollution modeling (WRF-Chem)
• Energy-by-wire: 2-3 μg/m3 reduction (2-7%) in annual mean PM2.5, ~1μg/m3 greater reduction that CbR
• (RE+C)bW avoids the PM2.5 increase in exporting provinces
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Air quality and climate benefits
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Air quality and climate benefits
Air-pollution-
related deaths:
National total -2%
20% greater
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Air quality and climate benefits
Carbon emissions:National total -3%
3 times greater
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Air quality and climate benefits
Air-pollution-related deaths
Carbon emissions
Monetized value
Value of Statistical Life (million US$): low - $0.09 (national); high - $0.25 (Beijing)
Social Cost Carbon: low - $12 (2.5% discount rate); high - $54 (5% discount rate)
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Cost-effectiveness: Energy-by-wire relative to CbR
Co-control air pollution and carbon emissions:
- (RE+C)bW becomes the most cost-effective strategy when high VSL and SCC are used
- Drop in wind power costs will improve its cost-effectiveness
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Conclusions
• (RE+C)bW compared to coal-based options: 20% greater annual air-pollution-related deaths, and three times larger annual carbon emission reduction Already most cost-competitive based on high VSL and SCC
• (RE+C)bW may become more cost-competitive in the future with the increase in VSL with income level and the decrease in renewable technology price
• Inferior long-term climate impact of coal-based strategy: substantial committed carbon emissions of new investment in coal power plants
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Thanks!
Manuscript available upon request