Download - Power to the People? Beyond Populism
POWER TO
THE PEOPLE?
BEYOND POPULISM
#ipsosmorilive
2 © 2015 Ipsos.
Agenda
Darrell Bricker Global CEO Public Affairs, Ipsos Canada
6
Nando Pagnoncelli President, Ipsos Italy
5Mari Harris Director & Political Analyst, Ipsos S.A.
Henri Wallard Global Chairman Public Affairs, Ipsos France
4
Ben Page CEO, Ipsos MORI UK
3
Cliff Young President Public Affairs, Ipsos U.S.
CLIFF
YOUNG
PRESIDENT,PUBLIC AFFAIRSIPSOS U.S.
@CliffAYoung
NEW POLITICAL
SUPERCYCLE
5 © 2015 Ipsos.
Belief in a broken system….Society is broken/in decline 57%
Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 68%
Feel like a stranger in my country 38%
Need a strong leader to take it back from the rich and powerful 64%
Confidence in institutions….
Political Parties 14%
The Media 27%
6 © 2015 Ipsos.
Emergent belief system inTrumpian America
7 © 2015 Ipsos.
NA
TIVISM
45
45
70
72
56
55
When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of
this country over…
More and more, I don't identify with what America has become
SYSTEM
IS B
RO
KEN
All Republicans DemocratsSource: Ipsos Polls, Sept 2015 & Jan 2016
Nativism & System is Broken: in US
82
71
56
68
70
69
In America today, the rich are getting richer and the poor are
getting poorer
Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me
8 © 2015 Ipsos.
Nativism Increasingly Driving Identification as Republican
Identify as Republican
American Dream
Anti-Big Government
Anti-Abortion
System is broken
Worse off than parents
Fear of Others
Nativism/Anti-Immigrant
Authoritarianism
9 © 2015 Ipsos.
Nativism vs. System is Broken: Global Context
Argentina
Australia
BelgiumBrazil
Canada
France
Germany
Hungary
India
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Poland
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Great BritainUS
Israel
Peru
Syst
em
is B
roke
n
Nativism
10 © 2015 Ipsos.
Key Drivers: Nativism + System is Broken
1317
1923
262728
3030
3134
3636
40404141
4345
4850
South AfricaMexico
SwedenIndia
JapanAustralia
IsraelTurkey
ItalyGermany
South KoreaAll countries
BelgiumPoland
BrazilCanada
Great BritainArgentina
USSpain
France
Relative importance explained
MARI
HARRIS
DIRECTOR & POLITICAL ANALYSTIPSOS S.A.
12 © 2015 Ipsos.12
The Pulse of the People
Beyond Populism:
13 © 2015 Ipsos.13 © 2017 Ipsos.
In South Africa there was a surge in populism and populist politics since 2007 when Jacob Zuma became ANC leader – and especially since he became president in May 2009.
14 © 2015 Ipsos.14 © 2017 Ipsos.
This became more pronounced when the EFF was formed in 2013, the two populist parties now clashed head-on in Parliament.
15 © 2015 Ipsos.
0
20
40
60
80
100M
ay '0
9
No
v '0
9
May
'10
No
v '1
0
May
'11
No
v '1
1
May
'12
No
v '1
2
May
'13
No
v '1
3
May
'14
No
v '1
4
May
'15
No
v '1
5
May
'16
No
v '1
6
* Khayabus May 2009 - Dec 2016, F2F interviews, nationally representative
WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE COUNTRY IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR IN THE WRONG DIRECTION?*
%
RIGHT WRONG
16 © 2015 Ipsos.
0% 100%
53% say the country is going in the wrong direction (general public)*
0% 100%
The SA society is broken / in decline 77% (elites)**
*Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative**This is the highest in the world. World average 57% (Global @visor)
17 © 2015 Ipsos.
62.15
22.23
6.359.27
53.91
26.9
8.1911
5
22
10
54
63
26
812
MEASURING POLITICAL PARTY SUPPORT IN THE MIDST OF POPULIST POLITICS…. AN ART AND A SCIENCE*
NATIONAL ELECTION 2014 % LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION 2016 %
17 © 2017 Ipsos.
OTHER PARTIES
TOGETHER
OTHER PARTIES
TOGETHER
IPSOS PREDICTION % ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS %
*Khayabus, May 2014 , August 2016
18 © 2015 Ipsos.
40%
46%
40%
62%
40% “There is no political party that represent my views”
62% says that President Zuma is NOT doing his job well
46% says the National Government is not doing their job well
40% says Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa is not
doing his job well
Trust in leadership is lacking*
18 © 2017 Ipsos.
* Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative
19 © 2015 Ipsos.
DO NOT believe we need a strong leader
DO NOT think politicians should say what is on
their minds regardless of anyone else
Believe globalisation is an opportunity
AND 78% believe that we can recover
But
20 © 2015 Ipsos.20 © 2017 Ipsos.
Looking at the current mood in SA, civil society and other indicators, we are moving towards “post-populism” and are focusing on “truth”!
Many countries need to come to terms with “post–truth”, populist politicians & populism in society….
BEN
PAGE
CEOIPSOS MORI UK
@benatipsosmori
Was Brexit Populism?
23 © 2015 Ipsos.
Smells like populism….
NEW POLITICAL ACTOR
TURNOUT HIGHER IN LEAVE AREAS – AND 2015 NON-VOTERS SWUNG LEAVE BY 3:2
DISTRUST OF EXPERTS/ CULTURAL DIVIDE
Link between museum attendance and Remain voteSource: Dr Mark Taylor, Sheffield Methods Institute
Photo source: By Euro Realist Newsletter - flickr.com, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7670040
24 © 2015 Ipsos.
But if Brexit = populism then populism includes some pretty mainstream opinions….
25 © 2015 Ipsos.
Anti-Europeanism embedded for a long time
The UK has notbenefited from being part of the European UnionSource: Eurobarometer
1983
56%
2011
54%
26 © 2015 Ipsos.
And while immigration especially important to UKIP – all voters are worried about it
4,002 British adults 18+ online, 14-25 April 2016
54 64 55
93
0
20
40
60
80
100
Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP
% dissatisfied with the way the current govt is dealing with immigration
27 © 2015 Ipsos.
It lets the failures of the remain campaign off the hook
• Only 3 in 10 thought Brexit would harm their standard of living
• Leave messages much more believed
28Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
• Brits mid-table on most ‘populism’ measures
• And actually more in favour of foreign trade than most
• Still looks like the Conservatives – not UKIP – most likely to be the winners in 2020 (and little sign of a Labour populist surge either….)
In international terms, we remain more shopkeepers than revolutionaries…
HENRI
WALLARD GLOBAL CHAIRMANPUBLIC AFFAIRSIPSOS FRANCE
@henriwallard
30 © 2015 Ipsos.
Beyond populismFrance
31 © 2015 Ipsos.
Unemployment
ImmigrationConcerns
Authority
Decline Direction
32 © 2015 Ipsos.
OF THE FRENCH THINK THAT THE NEXT GENERATION WILL LIVE A WORSE LIFE
Les 4500, Observatoire Ipsos des modes de vie et de consommation, France, 2016.
66%
DeclineThe “Social lift” isstill not working
33 © 2015 Ipsos.
Rejection of foreigners Immigration
87% of the French believe the number of immigrants has been increasingover the last five years• Only 11% consider this has had a positive impact • 57% feel there are too many immigrants in the country
• 67 % think there are terrorists among the immigrants• 54 % believe that most of the people who declare themselves as refugees are not
really refugees• 63% think that refugees will not be successfully integrated
A Global @dvisory – June 2016 – G@ “Immigration”
34 © 2015 Ipsos.
A TRUE LEADER IS NEEDED TO BRING BACK SOME ORDER
Authority
AUTHORITY AS A VALUE IS TOO OFTEN CRITICISED
88%
87%
Authority
35 © 2015 Ipsos.
“THEY'RE ALL ROTTEN”
Populism Vs. Elitism
36 © 2015 Ipsos.
OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT MOST POLITICIANS ARE CORRUPT
OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT POLITICIANSDO NOT CARE WHAT PEOPLE THINK
88%OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THATPOLITICIANS ACT MAINLYFOR THEIR OWN PERSONAL INTERESTS
89%
Declinism
OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT FRANCEIS IN DECLINE
86%
Crisis of authority& exemplary behaviour
MistrustInternet turning intocounter-information
77%OF FRENCH PEOPLE NOT TRUST THE MEDIA
Fuelling Populism
“The system is broken”
75 %
37 © 2015 Ipsos.
2017 and later ?
NANDO
PAGNONCELLI
PRESIDENTIPSOS ITALY
@NPagnoncelli
39 © 2015 Ipsos.
POWER TO THE PEOPLE?
Beyond Populism
40 © 2015 Ipsos.
BACK TO THE FUTURE?THE EARLY SIGNS
SCENARIO: A POLITICAL CRISIS (corruption, bribes)
• A media tycoon, he claims his extraneousness from the political world, with its rites and its flaws
• He enters the political arena motivated by a sense of responsibility
• Primacy to the people has to be restored
• The people’s spokeperson, speaks a plain language
• Unites a social block
Ring a bell?
1994, SILVIO BERLUSCONI
41 © 2015 Ipsos.41
• Crisis
• Tycoon
• Sense of responsibility
• Primacy to the people
• Speaks a plain language
• Unites a social block
42 © 2015 Ipsos.© 2015 Ipsos.42
• Crisis
• Comedian
• Sense of responsibility
• Primacy to the people (in the internet)
• Speaks a plain language
• Unites a social block
AGAINST
44 © 2015 Ipsos.
GIACHETTIDEMOCRATIC PARTY
RAGGI5STARS MOVEMENT
67,1%
32,9%
A rift opensAGAINST THE POWERS
45 © 2015 Ipsos.© 2017 Ipsos
SALZBURGLINZ
WIEN
GRAZ
KLAGENFURT
INNSBRUCK
This is not only about ItalyAGAINST THE POWERS
46 © 2015 Ipsos.
EDINBURGH
MANCHESTER
LONDON
BIRMINGHAM
CARDIFF
BELFAST
LIVERPOOL
50% 80%
LEAVE
REMAIN
This is not only about ItalyAGAINST THE POWERS
49%
85%
65%
65%
64%
60%
57%
56%
56%
55%
54%
51%
50%
49%
44%
43%
43%
41%
40%
35%
33%
31%
12%
Totale
Turchia
Italia
Sud Africa
Russia
Belgio
Francia
Arabia Saudita
India
Ungheria
Argentina
Stati Uniti
Germania
Gran Bretagna
Australia
Svezia
Messico
Canada
Spagna
Brasile
Polonia
Sud Korea
Giappone
strongly + fairly agree
“There are too many immigrants in our Country”
44%79%
67%65%
63%62%62%
60%60%
56%56%
53%53%
47%46%
45%41%
36%34%
31%31%
30%29%
23%22%22%
20%11%
8%
EU28
EL
BG
IT
SI
HR
CY
ES
RO
LT
HU
FR
SK
PT
LV
CZ
EE
PL
AT
BE
MT
UK
DE
IE
NL
FI
SE
LU
DK
“Satisfied with the way democracy works in your Country?
Source : Global @dvisor Source: Eurobarometer
IMMIGRATION AND POLITICS: worries transformed into success factors
% not satisfied
48 © 2015 Ipsos.
Enemies, audience and keywordsAGAINST THE SYSTEM
The ENEMIESEuro and EU
Finance, BanksExperts
DIRECT DEMOCRACY
INTERNET
SOVEREIGNTY
The AUDIENCE
SME’s, artisans, workers,
unemployed
POLITICIANSIMMIGRANTS
IMMIGRATION
ITALIANS FIRST CORRUPTION
49 © 2015 Ipsos.
The Excluded: the electors profile of Lega and M5SAGAINST THE SYSTEM
Young and adultsAdults
Workers and self-employedUnemployed, students
Workers and self-employed
Medium – lower educated
Medium – lower educated
Small towns inhabitants
Men
50 © 2015 Ipsos.Source: Ipsos
57
52
48
47
45
43
38
Senators number cut: 315 to100
Closure of National Economy& Labour Counsel
Limitation of Senate powers
Change in the rules ofreferendums
Elimination of Provinces
Combined legislative powersGov and Regions
Elections of Senators
4041424342
27-Oct-1620-Oct-1613-Oct-1606-Oct-1629-Sep-16
The issues at stake in the Italian referendumFOR OR AGAINST THE CHANGE?
% agreeISSUES OVERALL
51 © 2015 Ipsos.
What was the Italian referendum really about? FOR OR AGAINST ME!
YES 40,9% NO 59,1%
52 © 2015 Ipsos.
One question
53 © 2015 Ipsos.
Who’s the populist, now? BEYOND POPULISM
“The CEO of Goldman Sachs let his employees know that he’d be just fine with either Bush or Clinton.Well, I’ve got news for the bullies of Wall Street. The presidency is not a crown to be passed back and forth by you between two royal families.”
Do not ask politicians to cut their budgets. Do it yourself.
Vote YES ! WE WILL SAVE 500 MILLION € PER YEAR
DARRELL
BRICKER
GLOBAL CEOPUBLIC AFFAIRSIPSOS CANADA
@darrellbricker
55 © 2015 Ipsos.
THE VIEW FROM CANADA: FINAL THOUGHTS
56 © 2015 Ipsos.56
57 © 2015 Ipsos.
58 © 2015 Ipsos.
The Canadian Exception?
• Canadians value compromise and tolerance. How weak, young nation stays together.
• Values have evolved over time – not specific to this current government or leader.
• These values not central to outcome of last election.
• “Great Economic Disruption” of 2008 missed Canada. Inequality issue less salient.
• Canada brings in most immigrants per capita. But, mostly economic, not humanitarian. Nothing new.
• All drivers of disruption more muted. Not seeking radical political solutions.
• Confluence of events plus poor management could create Canadian version of what is happening elsewhere. But, it will always be a Canadian version.
59 © 2015 Ipsos.
There’s something happening here.
What it is ain’t exactly clear.
For What It’s WorthBuffalo Springfield. 1967
60 © 2015 Ipsos.
Populism
61 © 2015 Ipsos.
What Does It Add Up To?
• More than populism – need a new term.
• Combination of forces - nativism, system is broken, rejection of authority and expertise, end of progress, leading to disruptive elections and unexpected political outcomes.
• Given universality of forces, setting up for on-going period of political uncertainty and instability.
62 © 2015 Ipsos.
Some big tests ahead
• March: Netherlands
• May: France
• September: Germany
• By December: South Korea
• 2018 (or earlier): Italy
63 © 2015 Ipsos.
All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina
#ipsosmorilive
Q&A
#ipsosmorilive
THANKS FOR
LISTENING!