![Page 1: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Preliminary tests on the Cycle of
Hourly Assimilation and Forecast Hourly Assimilation and Forecast
system in Guangzhousystem in Guangzhou
WAN Qi-lin, CHEN Zi-tong, DING Wei-yu, HUANG Yan-yanWAN Qi-lin, CHEN Zi-tong, DING Wei-yu, HUANG Yan-yan
Institute of the tropical and marine meteorology, CMA, GuangzhouInstitute of the tropical and marine meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou
![Page 2: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
Motivation
system introduce
Some tests
conclusions
![Page 3: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Motivation
How to make use of high frequent observation data for improving numerical analysis and forecast .
How to give a good support to nowcasting
![Page 4: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
system introduce
For short, the system is named as CFAF
CHAF - The Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast
based on Grapes - Global/ Regional Assimilation PrEdiction
System
![Page 5: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Domain
Grid resolution:0.12°
CHAF domain
![Page 6: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
System flow chart
Pretreatment
ObservationDATA
Cycle
Boundary(from coarse model)
OperationPrediction
Increment interpolation
Increment Digital Filter
GRAPES_ MODELGRAPES-Model
background
GRAPES_ 3DVARGRAPES-Var
SimpleCloud analysis
nudging
![Page 7: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Case choosing to understand the basic character of CHAF
The case is about a typhoon , the typhoon is landing and tend to weaken.
At 12UTC, 13 August,2005, a typhoon have been landing at Guangdong Province.
In the simulation test, we chose 12UTC as initial time ,and have performed 24h forecast.
![Page 8: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The scheme of experiment--to check if the cycle would give birth to noise, and if the cycle would benefit to improve analysis filed.
Test 1 : The model run 24 hour, without cycle;
Test 2 : The model run 24 hour, with the cycle of hourly assimilation and forcast.
The DFI window is six hour ( -3 , +3 ), and, the observation was not import 。
Test 3 : The model run 24 hour, with the cycle of hourly assimilation and forcast.
The DFI window is six hour ( -3 , +3 ), and, the Sounding and surface observation was ingest 。
![Page 9: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Test 1 –Control test
![Page 10: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Test 2
test3 test1test2
Test2
Test1
![Page 11: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Test 3
Surface observation Surface observation
Sounding
![Page 12: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Initial field_SLP12z 13AUGCycle- test 3
observationControl Test
![Page 13: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
SLP12H Forecast00z 14AUG
Test 1
Test 3observation
![Page 14: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
500hPa Height12H forecast
Test 1
Test 3observation
![Page 15: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
12H FORECAST Rainfall :6H Accum00z14AUG
Test 1
Test 3observation
![Page 16: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
conclusion
According to the result of the tests , we think that: the cycle of CHAF system did not arouse addi
tional error evidently, the CHAF system must be capable of assimil
ation some high frequent observation.
![Page 17: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The tests to assimilate high frequent observation.
Cloud-drift wind Airline observation ( AMDAR ) Calculated Cloud (Cloud analysis)
![Page 18: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Hourly asimilation of cloud-drift wind
The Vector of cloud-drift wind on 200hpa( 2005-07-11 00 : 00~12 : 00UTC )
![Page 19: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The scheme of comparative experiment
Test 1
Initial value00 UTC
Analysis field
at 12UTC
forecast
Initial value 00 UTC
forecast
Hourlr assimilate cloud-drift wind
Analysis field
at 12UTC
Test 2
![Page 20: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Height and Wind on 500hpa (analysis)
a. With cloud-drift wind
b. Without CDW
c . Velocity difference between a and b
d . NCEP analysis
a b
c d
![Page 21: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
24H precipitation ( 2005-7-11 12 : 00UTC~2005-7-12 12 : 00UTC )
a . With cloud-drift wind b . without c . Difference d . Real
a b
c d
![Page 22: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The observation distribution from Air report between 00 - 23UTC on 18 Jun. 2 ( left: time-height cross-section ; right: planform – look down )
Test about Air report assimilation
The three-dimensional distribution of Airline observation between 04 - 06UTC on 18 Jun.
![Page 23: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
The comparative test of Air report assimilation
12Z18Jun00Z18Jun
Test2:1-h assimilation of Air report,and sounding,surf,ship
12Z18Jun
24h Forecast
24h Forecast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23探空 46地面 346 1053 409 867 239 334 384船舶 4 14 4 7 4 15 4卫星 160飞机 128 127 75 131 155 149 162 112 54 118 105 139 200 155 38 25 15 5 5 15 6 7 35
00Z18Jun
Test1:1-h assimilation of sounding,surf,ship
![Page 24: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The 24H precipitation
With airline observ-ati
on
Without
Difference Obs.
![Page 25: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
The 3km cloud at 2005082012UTC . The below pictures are thecomparing the calculated rain content and the reflection of radar
![Page 26: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The 5km cloud at 2005082012UTC . The below pictures are thecomparing the calculated rain content and the reflection of radar
![Page 27: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The nudging of analysis cloud has effect on 0-1h precipitation forecast
With nudging cloudWithout
Difference Obs.
![Page 28: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The nudging of calculated cloud has effect on 1-2h precipitation forecast
Difference
With nudging cloudWithout
Obs.
![Page 29: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The case of Real time Running
Red - CYCLE;Green - operation ; Black - observation
cycle obs
3day 2day 1day
![Page 30: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Summary
In the CHAF system, the cycle did not arouse additional error evidently.
The analysis and forecast can be improved by use of high frequent observation data.
The CHAF system would have a good future in application to nowcasting.
But More research must be done to improve the cloud
analysis,3DVAR, cycle system flow, etc. Farther, a long time running must be performed t
o inspect the CHAF system.
![Page 31: Preliminary tests on the Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast system in Guangzhou](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062808/5681529d550346895dc0c16a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
The end,thank you !