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Preparing for Autonomous Vehicles
Daniel [email protected] Sound Regional CouncilEconomic Development BoardFebruary 7, 2018
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Easter 1900 Easter 1913
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“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.
No chance….”Steve Ballmer, CEO Microsoft, 2007
“The iPhone’s impact will be minimal. It will only appeal to a few gadget freaks. Nokia and Motorola have nothing to worry about.”
Bloomberg Analyst, 2007
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Promise
Peril
Plan
Get Ready!
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Coming Soon!
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Convergence
https://electrek.co/
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Trends reinforce
0% 50% 100%Person Miles
Traveled
Electric Vehicles
Vehicle sharing w/smart-phone
Autonomous Vehicles
0%
<1%
~5%
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Trends reinforce
0% 100%Person Miles
Traveled
Electric Vehicles
Vehicle sharing w/smart-phone
Autonomous Vehicles
20%
20%
20%
50%
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Trends reinforce
0% 100%Person Miles
Traveled
Electric Vehicles
Vehicle sharing w/smart-phone
Autonomous Vehicles
90%
90%
90%
50%
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BETTER & CHEAPER• 10X utilization
• Falling vehicle cost
• Low operating cost
• Low insurance
• Low finance
• No driving
• No parking
• No fueling
• No repairs
• Safer
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• Transit > 1 hour
• $0.55 per mile $0.16
• 70% cost savings
• Annual savings: $3,300
W. Seattle to Boeing Field
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• Love of tech
• Ride-sharing
• Millennials
• Labor shifts
• Love of driving
• Fear & distrust
• Liability
• Job loss
Resist Embrace
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Urban mobility transformed in 10 years
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Greenhouse emissions slashed
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Land freed from parking cars
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Rethinking our streets
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Reduced Cost
Improved Mobility
Increased Safety
Reduced GHGs
Land from parking
Reduced Congestion*
Boost to Productivity
Improved Regional
Competitive-ness*
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• Job loss
• Road finance
• Congestion
• Sprawl
• Privacy & data security
Potential downsides
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• Job loss
• Road finance
• Congestion
• Sprawl
• Privacy & data security
Potential downsides
Price roads efficiently
Set rules
Create pathways to growing sectors
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GET READY
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• Private fleets on public roads
• Guard the public interest
Co-producer & regulator
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Rally the regional players
Local Government
Research Institutions
State Government
NGOs
AEV Technology & Service Providers
TransitAgencies
UtilitiesBusiness Leaders
Regional Planning & Economic Development
Agencies
Labor
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Rally the regional players
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1. Build capacity to engage new policy area2. Convene regional players3. Recruit companies for 20194. Cities and utilities to partner on Clean Energy
grants from Commerce• $13 million by June 2019 for charging capacity
Action agenda: Q1 & Q2 - 2018
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1. Rules of the roada. Clarify roles & responsibilitiesb. Regulatory certainty for TNCs
2. Model ordinances for citiesa. Public safetyb. Roadway & sidewalk rulesc. Parking
3. Policy to mitigate downsidesa. Ensure competitionb. Variable road pricing by time of day and locationc. Pathways for displaced workers
Action agenda: Q2-Q4 - 2018