Preparing for Future Changes in the Workforce: Emerging Trends
G. Stephen Taylor, Ph.D.
Mississippi State University
• SIGNED STATEMENTS!!!!• Thursday
– Team assignments– Debate order– First debate topic
“A Differentiated and Memorable Customer Experience”
• Customized products– Napster vs iTunes
• Negotiated prices– Not Y
• Flexible places– iPod– iPhone
• Targeted promotion– “hulu effect/Ad Tailor”
“A Differentiated and Memorable Employee Experience”
• Customized construct– Box vs. amoeba
• Negotiated compensation– More than dollars
• Flexible connection– “company man”
• Targeted communication– Info the way I want it
Most Critical Changes
• Diversity/Immigration• Globalization/Education• 4 generations
– aging population
Diversity and Immigration
Origins
Caribbean
Cent. Am
South Am.
Europe
AsiaOther
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Small but growing
Native-Born Total Foreign-Born
84%
16%
Educational Attainment
<HS High School Some College BA/BS
5.8%
29.7% 30.0%
34.5%
26.4%25.1%
16.4%
31.1%
Native Born Foreign Born
52%
Foreign-Born Shares
Total Pop. All workers Low-wage workers Lower-skilled workers
11%14%
19%
38%
12%
16%
21%
45%
2000 2005
Skill Levels
• 42% said “adequate”
• 25% moderate deficiencies
• 7% severe deficiencies
Note the differences…..
Project-mgt skills
Team work
Poor employability
Verbal communication
Written communica-tion
English language
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
6%
10%
15%
65%
72%
84%
Hispanic/Latino
• 15.1% of US population• 50% of total growth 2000-2007
GLOBALIZATION AND EDUKASHUN
The right thing? Could be…or not
• US debt (good or bad?)• it's how big????
Zimbabwe
GDP growth rates (2009)
PIIGS!
Not a garden variety
• Inventory recession• Balance sheet recession
– Liabilities > assets– Prof max debt minimization
• No borrowers
State CapitalismPost 2007
•State capitalism–a system in which the state dominates markets primarily for political gain
–autocratic states reap the benefits of capitalist enterprise while maintaining a vice-grip on political freedom
•“capitalism for the wealthy”
Fastest growing industries (2008-2018)
Semi-cond.
Science R&D
Med. Equip mfg
Fin. Invest.
A/V mfg
Data/info services
Software
Computer/peripheral mfg
5.9%
6.1%
6.3%
7.3%
8.4%
9.3%
10.5%17.0%
Knowledge workers
• What is a “job?”• Self-managed• Constantly innovate• Continuous learning• Quality counts• Asset, not cost
The International Context (top 30)
• 16th in reading skills
• 20th in science
• 26th in math
• 25th in problem solving
Undergraduate Degrees (top 30)
• 17.6% in science (19th)
• 6% in natural science (8th)
• 3.9% in math/computer science (12th)
• 6.4% in engineering (21st)
Undergraduate Degrees
1980 1990 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
IS Engineering Math Science
63%34%
2006
So What’s A Poor Boy to Do?
Higher-Skilled Immigrants
• H1-B– 3 yrs (extendable for 3 yrs)– 65,000 annually (+/- 2 months)– Can apply for “green card”
• Praise– Only way to offset shortage of native-borns
Higher-Skilled Immigants
• Criticisms– “corporate subsidy”
• Not a shortage of native-borns• Depresses wages• Eliminates native-born jobs (AIG)• “indentured servants”
No longer true…..
60 is the new 40………
In 2000, Fairly “Young”
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Source: U.S. Census BureauPercent of Population Age 60+ 2000
. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ 2025
Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000
Source: Census Bureau, 2000
Age
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000
2530
35 3638
47
76.5
Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates
Source: Age Wave
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy0
1
2
3
4
3.3
2.8 2.9
3.6
2.0
2.5 2.5
2.0
1.7 1.7 1.61.4 1.3 1.2
1960 20002.1
By the numbers….
76
46
80
75
0
20
40
60
80
Mill
ions
Yers Xers Boomers Matures
Workforce challenges
• Limited in availability• Chronologically older• Lacking key skills• Global• Highly diverse• Sharing only health as a core value
Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, May 2005
Why not you?
• Mark Zuckerberg• Dorm rooom (2004)• $4 billion
Why not you?
Groupon• Andrew Mason• $350 million
Why not you?
Alice + Oliva• Dorm room• Stacey Bendet• $50 million• 800 stores