Download - Presentation Main Conference Martin Kropff
Can Agriculture feed our world?
125 years KLV
Prof Martin Kropff, Rector Magnificus Wageningen University
Global ChallengesFood security
Climate change/
Tipping points
Biobased Economy
StewardshipFood nutrition
& health
AGRI FOOD
Food securityFood availability (kcal/person/day)
2220
1590
3760
3490
2930
2470
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Africa Congo, Dem .Republic of
USA TheNetherlands
China India
Global production
Hunger threshold
Recommended
Distribution or production locally?
Food to feed the worldWorld population
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Billion
WORLD
DEVELOPING WORLD
DEVELOPED WORLD
The challenge for mankind
2x more with 2 x less
Projected effect of climate change
Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Washington D.C., USA: Peterson Institute.
Possible interventions
Innovative greenhouse
GMO
Agronomy Institutions
Possible interventions
Greenhouse as energy source
GMO
Agronomy Institutions
Possible interventions
Greenhouse as energy source
GMO
Agronomy Institutions
shine
Possible interventions
Greenhouse as energy source
GMO
Agronomy Institutions
shine
Possible interventions
Greenhouse as energy source
GMO
Agronomy Institutions
shine
Technological options: Productivity
Technological options: Productivity increase
!
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0Cultivation area (Million hectares)
Ma
ize
yie
ld (
ton
/ha
)
Western AfricaWestern Europe
Arable land (m hectare)
West AfricaWest Europe
Maï
s oo
gst
(ton
/hec
tare
)
Technological options: Two strategies
Theoretical maximum yield
Actual yield
Theoretical maximum yield
Actual yield
Yield gap
Decrease the Yield-gap
Yield gap
Increase maximum yield
GMO?
Food
Materials
Energy
Technological options: Biobased Economy
Technological/Socio-economic options
Climate change: Agriculture as part of the solution
Food to feed the worldFarming systems adapted to climate changeMitigating climate change
Technological/socio-economic options Roughly 1/3 of food produced
for human consumption is lost or wasted globally. Which amounts to about 1.3 billion tons per year (FAO, 2011 Institutions
the Netherlands total shrinkage in the food chain values € 4.4 billion
Socio economic options
Co-innovation (topsectors global) Institutions
Financial mechanisms Intermediate co-ordination (AGRA....) Governance at the global level
• Which current mechanisms work?
• How do we handle financial crises?
• Will we be able to handle major food crises?
Is there a role for the Netherlands?
Government
IndustryKnowledge
institutions
Coherent
Connected
Committed
PPP
Sector innovative and world leading (2nd exporter)
Knowledge infrastructure world class
world wide networks Education: capacity building, exchange Research: programs Innovation: international PPP based in regions
Golden triangles in regions of the world Universities and research institutes (regional) Governments Businesses
Solutions through international co-operation?
America
Asia
Africa
Conclusions
2 x more with 2 x less (eco-efficiency)
Biobased economy (waste, valorisation, P)
Agriculture and climate change: triple win (A, M, F)
Approach through PPPs, invest in AR
New international governance systems (long term thinking)
Agriculture can feed the world!
Opening of the Conference of ELLS
Rector Magnificus