Problems
Problems 4.17, 4.36, 4.40, (TRY: 4.43)
4. Random Variables
A random variable is a way of recording a quantitative variable of a random experiment.
4. Random Variables
A random variable is a way of recording a quantitative variable of a random experiment.
This variable has a distribution, mean and standard deviation, so we can discuss outliers using the same procedures as back in Chapter 2.
4. Random Variables
A random variable is a way of recording a quantitative variable of a random experiment.
This variable has a distribution, mean (expected value) and standard deviation, so we can discuss outliers using the same procedures as back in Chapter 2.
This includes percentiles, Chebyshev’s Rule and the Empirical Rule!
4. Random Variables
…outliers using the same procedures as back in Chapter 2.
This includes percentiles, Chebyshev’s Rule and the Empirical Rule!
The difference in this Chapter is we talk about the probabilities of what is to occur and in Chapter 2 we talked about the frequency of what did occur.
4. Random Variables
The difference in this Chapter is we talk about the probabilities of what is to occur and in Chapter 2 we talked about the frequency of what did occur.
In Chapter 2 we are talking about the sample and in Chapter 4 we are talking about the population.
Properties of Probability, P( X = xi )
1)(0 (1) ixXP
1)( (2)1
n
iixXP
Example
Find the probability distribution obtained by flipping an unbiased coin three times and counting the number of times heads comes up.
Binomial Experiment
A binomial experiment is one that:
1) Has a fixed number of trials (n)
2) These trials are independent
3) Each trial must have all outcomes classified into two categories (Success or Failure)
4) The probability of success remains constant for all trials.
Notation:
• S = success and P(S) = p
• F = Failure and P(F) = q = 1- p
• n = fixed number of trials
• x = specific number of successes in n trials
• P(x) = the probability of getting exactly x successes among n trials
Example
Shaquille Rashaun O'Neal (Shaq) is a basketball player who takes a lot of free throws. The probability of Shaq making a free throw is 0.60 on each throw.
With 3 free throws what is the probability that he makes 2 shots?
Notation:
• S = success and P(S) = .6
• F = Failure and P(F) = .4
• n = 3
• x = 2
• P(2) = the probability of getting exactly 2 successes (successful free throws) among n=3 trials
Factorials
0! = 1
1! = 1
2! = 2 * 1
3! = 3 * 2 * 1
4! = 4* 3 * 2 * 1
n! = n*(n-1)!
Factorials
0! = 1
1! = 1
2! = 2 * 1=2
3! = 3 * 2 * 1=6
4! = 4* 3 * 2 * 1=24
n! = n*(n-1)!
Binomial Probability Distribution
In a binomial experiment, with constant probability p of success at each trial, the probability of x successes in n trials is given by
xnxqpxxn
nsuccessesxP
!)!(
!) (
ExampleShaq is a basketball player who takes a lot of free throws. The probability of Shaq making a free throw is 0.60 on each throw.
With 3 free throws what is the probability that he makes 2 shots?
Shaq is a basketball player who takes a lot of free throws. The probability of Shaq making a free throw is 0.60 on each throw.
With 3 free throws what is the probability that he makes 2 shots?
0.432
)4(.)6(.!2)!23(
!3)2( 232
xP
Example
Example
Flipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
Example
Flipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
)8(...)3()2()2( xPxPxPxP
Example
Flipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
)1(1
)8(...)3()2()2(
xP
xPxPxPxP
Example
Flipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
)0()1(1
)1(1
)8(...)3()2()2(
xPxP
xP
xPxPxPxP
ExampleFlipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
8071 )6(.)4(.!0 !8
!8)6(.)4(.
!1 !7
!81
)0()1(1
)1(1
)8(...)3()2()2(
xPxP
xP
xPxPxPxP
ExampleFlipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
894.)6(.)4(.!0 !8
!8)6(.)4(.
!1 !7
!81
)0()1(1
)1(1
)8(...)3()2()2(
8071
xPxP
xP
xPxPxPxP
How to use the Binomial Tables
• (see page 885)
• First find the appropriate table for the particular value of n
• then find the value of p in the top row
• Find the row corresponding to k and find the intersection with the column corresponding to the value of p
• The value you obtain is the cumulative probability, that is P(x ≤ k)
• N=10, p = 0.7: P(x ≤ 4) = 0.047
• N=10, p = 0.7: P(x = 4) = P(x ≤ 4) - P(x ≤ 3) = 0.047-0.011=0.036
• N=10, p = 0.7: P(x > 4) = 1- P(x ≤ 4)
= 1 - 0.047 = 0.953
ExampleFlipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
ExampleFlipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
)1(1
)8(...)3()2()2(
xP
xPxPxPxP
ExampleFlipping a biased coin 8 times. The probability of heads on each trial is 0.4. What is the probability of obtaining at least 2 heads.
894.
106.01
)1(1
)8(...)3()2()2(
xP
xPxPxPxP
pq
npqnp
1
Mean and Standard deviation
Problems
Problems 4.52, 4.56, 4.62, 4.64, 4.66, 4.68
Keys to success
Learn the binomial table.
Be able to recognize binomial distributions and when you do apply the appropriate formulas and tables.
31
Homework
• Review Chapter 4.4
• Read Chapter 5.1-5.3