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Profile of Jamaica in the Context of Vulnerability
“Setting the Stage”
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The Issue of Vulnerability
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In the 1980s-1990s Caribbean countries (among others) lobbied extensively and successfully for a global platform within which the special and unique characteristics which shape, define and challenge their development could be discussed.
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Lobby resulted in global summit and formulation of the SIDS POA in 1994
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The issue of “vulnerability” is a key consideration in defining the special status of SIDS
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For SIDS, vulnerability is all encompassing
• Economic
• Ecological
• Social
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1. ECONOMIC
Highly “open” economies - susceptible to external “shocks”
• e.g.: changes in prices of primary commodities - bauxite, citrus, bananas and sugar produce immediate impact on national economic future
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1. ECONOMIC
Vulnerability to changes in global trade regimes:
•Trade liberalization - resulting in lowering of taxes on trade - some Caribbean countries derived 60%+ of government revenue from taxes on trade resulting in serious dislocation
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1. ECONOMIC
Development of Regional Trading Blocks
e.g., Jamaica - Impact of NAFTA (loss of jobs to Mexico)
Declining manufacturing sector:
• 1990 - 20% GDP
• 2000 - 15% GDP
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1. ECONOMIC
Changes in global trading has resulted in:
• Loss of preferential access for bananas
• New dispensation - sugar and rum
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1. ECONOMIC
• Serious problems: WI bananas
• St Kitts/Nevis: divestment from sugar
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1. ECONOMIC
Classification as “high risk”
high cost of insurance/reinsurance
negative impact on investment &
production costs
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1. ECONOMICother characteristics
• Undiversified economic structure
• Small domestic markets
• Constraints on institutional capacity
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2. ECOLOGICAL
• Fragility of natural resource base
• Vulnerability to sea-level rise
• Susceptibility to natural disasters
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Hurricanes & Tropical Storms1980-1989
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3. SOCIAL
• High rates of migration “brain drain” effect
• High rates of natural increase pressure on State to provide basic services
• Human resource constraints required skills
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Most of these vulnerabilities are
characteristic of Jamaica
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Vulnerability Profile of Jamaica
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1. ECONOMIC
Dependence on:(Year 2000)
• Manufacturing - 15.8% • Financial services - 14.9% • Tourism - 9.2%• Mining - 9.1%• Agriculture - 7.1%
(sugar & bananas)
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1. ECONOMIC
(Relatively) Small population
•Small domestic markets
•Limited capacity to mobilize domestic savings
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2. ECOLOGICAL
Susceptible to natural disasters
• Hurricane Allen, 1980 - category 4-5
• Hurricane Gilbert, 1988 - category 4-5
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2. ECOLOGICAL
• Low-lying coast - vulnerable to storm surge - potential for extensive coastal damage
• Vulnerability of tourism infrastructure to storm surge
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Hurricane Gilbert Damages
• Domestic crops J$ 769.0 million• Roads $ 39.0 million• Education $ 388.0 million• Housing (44% of stock) $ 2.0 billion• Tourism (hotels damaged) 86.0%• Deaths 45
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Also Mainly Coastal Geographic Concentration
Negril, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Port Antonio
21.5%
35.3%
2.5%
28.5%
10.5%
Kingston
2.2%
South Coast
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2. ECOLOGICAL
• Modeling has shown that a category 5 storm would generate a 3-4 meter storm surge
• Extensive inland inundation
potential
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Photo No. 1 of Montego Bay
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Photo No. 2 of Montego Bay
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2. ECOLOGICAL
• Extensive damages during
Hurricane Gilbert to all
island
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3. SOCIAL
Location of settlements in vulnerable areas:
•Coast
•Hilly/mountainous areas
•Flood plains (problem for Hurricane Michelle)
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Jamaica 1970-1998Storm Related Fatalities
Year Total Deaths: by Floods by Windstorms
1990-1998 8 8 0
1980-1989 172 110 62
1970-1979 91 85 6
Source: Em-Dat
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Extensive out-
migration of persons
at all levels of
income
3. SOCIAL
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3. SOCIAL
High rates of natural increase
pressure on State for essential services
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3. SOCIAL
• Unemployment
• Crime
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Natural disasters serve to underscore a
country’s peculiar vulnerabilities
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Quantum of costs!
Gilbert 1998:
49 people killed800,000 affected
200,000 homelessDirect damage - US$956 million
Indirect damage - US$230 millionTotal losses > 65% GDP
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The Legacy of Michelle
Area of disturbed weather, 28 October 2001
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Institutional/Operational Constraints
• Lack of applied methodology
• Difficulties with organizational structure - problems of coordination
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Areas of Worse Damage
• Spanish River Watershed• Swift River Watershed
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Damages:
• Flooding
• Landslides
• Debris flow
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Damages
• Infrastructure: Access roads to bridges Secondary roads
• Bridges: Spanish River
Swift River
Westmoreland River
• Affected population: 5 lives lost40,000 affected (lost
electricity)
4,000 immediately affected
800 evacuated
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Damages … Continued
• Community services: Schools, health clinics, community centers
• Houses: 500 completely destroyed
• Agriculture: 1911 ha crops (coffee, bananas)
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Michelle Underscored Weaknesses in:
P rep ared n ess fo r evacu a tion an d sh e lte rin g
W atersh ed m an ag em en t
P h ys ica l p lan n in g /lan d u se p lan n in g
M eth od o log y fo r coord in a tion
D ata g a th erin g p ro toco ls fo r assess in g d isas te rs im p ac ts
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Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability due to Man-made Impacts
Hurricane Michelle
Heavy rains
Steep slopes
Highly erodable soils
Geological faults
Intervention by man
Landslides Flooding
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Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability
due to Man-made Impacts
Intervention by ManRivers
Clearing of river banks
Development or river beds
Animal grazing in gullies
Mining gravel and sand in beds
Exacerbation of flooding
Land
Improper land use
Deforestation (slopes)
Use of fire to clear lands
Clearing of steep slopes
Landslides
Problems for Communities & Infrastructure losses
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Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow
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Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow
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Damage to Infrastructure
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Michelle underscored:
Poor Land Use Planning:Poor Settlement Strategy
Historical evidence that this phenomena had occurred several times before
18371937194019432001
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• Cutting of trees for charcoal• Use of fire to clear land• Livestock grazing in river bed• Development of flood plains
Michelle also Underscored Destructive Cultural Practices:
Contributed to Impacts
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Michele emphasized the economic dependence of communities on agriculture
• Loss of coffee
• Loss of bananas
• Livestock losses
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Michelle underscored existing vulnerabilities and points to the need for long term investments in:
•Watershed management
•Land use planning
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Lessons Learnt in Post-Michelle
Reconstruction process
must rebuild while
reducing vulnerability
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Implications for several issues, including:
Land use
Cultural practices
Settlement strategy
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Objectives of this workshop are:
To provide exposure in the application of the ECLAC Methodology in accessing the effects of disasters
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Objectives
Point the way to policy changes which can significantly reduce Jamaica's vulnerabilities to natural disasters over time.
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United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean
Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
P. O. Box 1113, Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago
Tel: 868-623-5595; Fax: 868-623-8485; e-mail: [email protected]
April 2002