- 1 -STS 2005 recap on strategic Direction
–– Strictly Confidential Strictly Confidential ––
PTT CORPORATE STRATEGY AND PLANNINGPTT CORPORATE STRATEGY AND PLANNING
PTT International Oil Trading
&
Our Future Trading Programs
By
Mr. Surong Bulakul
Senior Executive Vice President,
International Trading Business Unit
SPE Meeting, June 19. 2008
Business Planning Div.
PTT Hydrocarbon Value Chain
Contents
PTT Future Trading Programs
PTT Crude Oil & Condensate Trading
Thailand Energy Consumption
Oil Price Movement
(Unit: USD/BBL)
Dubai ULG 95 Gasoil 0.5%S HSFO 180CST
40404040
60606060
80808080
100100100100
120120120120
140140140140
160160160160
180180180180
AprJan Feb Mar May Jun
- Saudi will pump 0.2MMBD more in July to 9.7MMBD
- Early April, snow in Europe
- Shell Nigeria declaredForce Majeure Bonny Light export (400 KBD)- 30 Apr. FED fund rate reduced 0.25% to2.0%
- 10 May fire at Grangemouthrefinery (200 KBD) in
Scotland - 27 May French fishermen closed oil ports
- China diesel import from Jan.- May rose 900% from last year at 3 Mil.Ton
- 10 Feb. Venezuela and ExxonMobil conflict, PDVSA threatened to stop oil exports
- 18 Mar. FED fund rate reduced 0.75% to2.25%
- Mexico closed oil ports
- 29 May CFTC & ICE cooperated in tightening measures for futures oil trading
- 24 May Indonesiaincreased retail prices
- 1 Jun.Arthur hitGulf of Mexico
- Late winter- U.S. economic slow down
- Refinery Maintenance in Europe - Capacity shut-in 400 KBD
Oil Price Movement (Jan. 08 - Current)
What’s Moving Oil Market?
§§ IEA, EIA, OPEC adjusted downward IEA, EIA, OPEC adjusted downward
world oil demand growth cited econ. world oil demand growth cited econ.
slow down & high oil pricesslow down & high oil prices
§§ Saudi :Saudi :--
-- announced 0.2 MMBD productionannounced 0.2 MMBD production
increase in July to 9.7 MMBDincrease in July to 9.7 MMBD
-- called called ““Producer/ConsumerProducer/Consumer””
meeting on 22 June in Jeddahmeeting on 22 June in Jeddah
§§ CFTC & ICE agreed on stricterCFTC & ICE agreed on stricter
measures on futures trading measures on futures trading
§§ Shell extendedShell extended Force Force MajeureMajeure
Bonny Light to July Bonny Light to July
§§ Fire at Fire at OsebergOseberg platform platform
(150 KBD) in North Sea(150 KBD) in North Sea
§§ U.S. crude inventories dropU.S. crude inventories drop
5 weeks in a row 5 weeks in a row
§§ U.S. & U.K. agreed to put tighterU.S. & U.K. agreed to put tighter
sanction on Iran, due to nuclearsanction on Iran, due to nuclear
developmentdevelopment
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Africa
FSU
Mid East
Latin America
Other Asia
Europe
China
Total World OilDemand
WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH, MB/D (YR-ON-YR CHANGE)•Non-OECD countries remain drivers of world oil demand growth
• Non-OECD countries
oil demand not in cycle with OECD oil demand growth
•Therefore spill-over effects from credit crunch could be limited in the short term
• Many consumers in non-OECD sheltered from oil price rise due to retail price subsidies
•Chinese demand growth steady at 300kb/d as country initiates energy efficiency drivers
NONNON--OECD OIL DEMAND GROWTHOECD OIL DEMAND GROWTH
Business Planning Div.
Thailand Energy Consumption
Business Planning Div.
Thailand Demand/Supply Balance 2007
TOTAL DEMAND TOTAL DEMAND 1,2121,212 (+2.0) EXPORT 196 ((+2.0) EXPORT 196 (--10.5) 10.5) TOTAL SUPPLY TOTAL SUPPLY 1,5741,574 ((--1.0)1.0)
Unit : KBD ( ) : % Change from Previous Year
BCP 120
TOP 275
SPRC 150
PTTAR 145
ESSO 145
IRPC 215
RPC 17
Total 1,067 Total 1,067
KBDKBD
RefiningCapacity
12 (-21)
773 (-4.8)
VolumesSources
158 (+4.3)
Crude Oil
Condensate
Natural Gas
129 (+3.2)
65 (+0.1)
421 (+7)
Crude Oil Export 52 (-21)Condensate Exp. 0 (Also 0 in 2006)
Six Gas Separation Plants with Combined Capacity of 1,755
MMCF/D
* includes LPG from Petrochemical Plants 7.6 (+10)* includes LPG from Petrochemical Plants 7.6 (+10)
Products 16 (-38)61%61%
Crude Oil
Condensate
EGATIndustriesSPP + IPP
186 (+1.2)64 (+26)225 (+4)
Natural Gas Consumption
39%39%
Product Consumption Export
LPG* 117 (+14) 9 (-52)
Gasoline 127 (+1.7) 27 (-18)
DPK 85 (+9) 8 (-56)
Diesel 323 (+2) 46 (-8.5)
Fuel Oil 73 (-28) 43 (+75)
Bitumen 12 (-12) 10 (+27)
Total 737 (-0.0) 144 (-5.9)
Product Consumption Export
LPG* 117 (+14) 9 (-52)
Gasoline 127 (+1.7) 27 (-18)
DPK 85 (+9) 8 (-56)
Diesel 323 (+2) 46 (-8.5)
Fuel Oil 73 (-28) 43 (+75)
Bitumen 12 (-12) 10 (+27)
Total 737 (-0.0) 144 (-5.9)
Natural
Gas
Business Planning Div.
Gas
Gas
Oil
Oil
Petrochemical
Petrochemical
Crude Oil Crude Oil ProcurementProcurement
Crude & Condensate
Natural Gas
Crude & Condensate
Power Plants
Compressor
Gas Separation Plants
Lube Base Plant
PTTRF
Natural Gas Mix
Gas Products
Electricity
DCS in Airport
NGV
Oil
LPG
Transportation
Petrochemical Plants: Intermediates (MEG, Phenol, etc.)
Plastic Resins
Olefins & Aromatics Plants
End Products
Petroleum Products
Pipeline
PTT Stations
PTTEP
Trading
Export MarketsExport Markets
UpstreamUpstream IntermediateIntermediate DownstreamDownstream End CustomersEnd Customers
Industry
LPG/NGL
Fully Integrated Portfolio & Strong Leadership PositionFully Integrated Portfolio & Strong Leadership Position
PTT Hydrocarbon Value Chain
ExportMarket
Business Planning Div.
Crude Oil and Condensate Import & Trading
Middle East 94%UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Oman, Qatar, Yemen
Middle East 94%UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Oman, Qatar, Yemen
Africa 2%Algeria, Garbon,
Angola, Sudan
Africa 2%Algeria, Garbon,
Angola, Sudan Other 2%Australia,
Azerbaijan, China
Other 2%Australia,
Azerbaijan, China
Far East 2%Malaysia, Indonesia
Far East 2%Malaysia, Indonesia
Thailand
China
Taiwan
Indonesia
EuropeAzerbaijan
Angola
Source of import
Out Out Trading
Thailand Crude & Condensate Import = 785 KBD Thailand Crude & Condensate Import = 785 KBD
PTT crude & condensate import = 445 KBD (~57% of TH import)PTT crude & condensate import = 445 KBD (~57% of TH import)
Business Planning Div.
Producers
Sino US
Pacific Tiger
PTTEP
Hess
Chevron
Pearl Energy
Indigenous Crude Oil and Condensate Logistics
Thailand has locally produced 246 KBD, of which 80% is used locaThailand has locally produced 246 KBD, of which 80% is used locally.lly.
Logistic Base
is a transportation for offshore field.
is a transportation mostly for onshore field except
Phet condensate.
is a transportation for Phet condensate.
Business Planning Div.
Wichianburi
Phet
NC
Suphanburi
Sonkajai
Phu Horm
Chon Buri
Bangkok
Kamphaeng
583 KM.
455 KM.
570 KM.346 KM.
358 KM.
115 KM.
Phetchabune Khon Kaen
Suphan Buri
Trucks are used as a logistic in moving oil
from oil field to BCP refinery• Phu Horm Condensate from Khon Kaen• Wichianburi crude from Phetchabune• NC crude from Kamphang Phet• Suphanburi and Sonkajai from Suphan Buri
Truck route
Rail route
Phet crude is transported by
• Truck which load from oil field in Kamphang
to Phitsanulok, then by
• Rail which load from Phitsanulok to
to BCP and TOP refinery
50 KM.
Indigenous Crude Oil and Condensate Logistics
Business Planning Div.
Benchamas
Palin
Arthit
Bongkot
Pattani
Jasmine
Rayong
Chon Buri
Bangkok
Erawan & Trat
Time Charter vessels are used as a logisticin moving oil from offshore oil field to Sriracha and Maptaphut Port.
229.4 NM17H 00M
Pattani
221.5 NM16H 24M
Erawan/Trat
249.9 NM20H 44M
324.5 NM24H 00M
Arthit/Bongkot
159 NM12H 00M
Benchamas/Pailin
121.0 NM09H 00M
Jasmine
Map Ta PhutSrirachaPort
pipeline
Route to PTTAR
Route to BCP
Route to TOP
Indigenous Crude Oil and Condensate Logistics
Business Planning Div.
PTT Group Refineries
PTT represents 34% of total refining capacityPTT represents 34% of total refining capacity by equity portionby equity portion
Total Thailand Refinery Capacity = 1,067 KBD
Total PTT Group Refinery Capacity = 905 KBD
- Phet, SKJ, BP, NC, Pattani,Nang Nuan, Wichianburi, Jasmine
- Bongkot, Phuhom Cond.- Malampaya Cond., Duri, Dar Blend
Cap. 120 KBD
- Arab Light, Qatar Marine, Conzak, Sahara, Mutineer,Arab Heavy, Tapis, etc.
Cap. 215 KBD
- Murban, Oman, Masila, Alshaheen, Upper Zakum, Arab Extra Light, Qatar MarineQ R.
Cap. 150 KBD
- Phet, Benchamas, Pattani, Nang Nuan, Jasmine
- Bongkot, Trat, Cakerawala- Murban, Oman, Lower Zakum,Umchaeiff, etc.
Cap. 275 KBD
- Jasmine, Erawan, Pailin,Bongkot, Trat
- Murban, Oman, Masila,Alshaheen, Upper Zakum,Girassol, etc.
Cap. 145 KBD
Crude oil & Condensate Input
Business Planning Div.
PTT Future Oil Trading Project
433a & 416b
Algeria
Rommana
Sidi Abd EI RahmanIran Saveh
Iran
Oman 44
Oman 58
Egypt
Oman
Australia
Australia AC/P36
New Zealand Great South
New Zealand
Oil Field
Gas Field
Bahrain
Bahrain Block 2
PTT will acts as a partner and marketing arm for PTT will acts as a partner and marketing arm for
PTTEP oversea crude production. PTTEP oversea crude production.
PTT will explore crude oil trading opportunity elsewhere in the PTT will explore crude oil trading opportunity elsewhere in the world.world.
PTTEP Oversea Projects
Business Planning Div.