Javier García Hernández 10/11/2008

Real-time decision makingbased on ensemble floodforecasts - MINERVE project

Javier García Hernández

Public partners: Office Fédéral de l’Environnement,Service des Routes et des Cours d’Eau et Service del’Energie et des Forces Hydrauliques du Canton duValais, Service des Eaux, Sols et Assainissement duCanton de Vaud.

The main goal of the 3rd Rhône Correction project isto improve the flood protection in the Upper RhoneRiver basin. In this context, the MINERVE projectaims contributing to a better flow control during floodevents, taking advantage from the existingmultireservoirs system in the Canton Valais(Figure 1). For this purpose, a hydrometeorologicalforecast model has been developed as well as adecision support tool for the hydropower plantspreventive management.

The main goal of the PhD project is the achievementof a new Decision Support System (DSS) taking intoaccount the concept of risk management. It will bebased on the analysis of the new ensemblehydrological forecasts, considering the current stateof the hydropower plant reservoirs to propose theoptimal management of the hydropower plants(HPP). The aim is the reduction of the peak flowalong the Rhone River.

Figure 1: Upper Rhone River basin with the mostimportant hydropower plants.

The MINERVE system will exploit the flowmeasurements (Figure 2), the data from reservoirsand hydropower plants and the ensemblemeteorological forecast from MeteoSwiss. Thehydrologic simulation tool will provide hydrologicalpredictions in the most important locations on theRhone River basin. It will be the input for the DSSwhich will propose a real-time management of thehydropower plants, taking into account all restrictionsand current conditions of the system. Anotherimportant input will be the associated costs due tohydropower preventive operations. Finally, the

recommendations issued from the DSS will beprovided to the Scientific Crisis Cell of Canton Valaisfor decision.

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Figure 2: Ensemble hydrological forecast from theCOSMO-LEPS forecast (04.09.2008 12h) in the Porte duScex location

An operational scheme for the new developments ofthe MINERVE project is presented in Figure 3. Aftera “water alert” of MeteoSwiss, an analysis of themeteorological and hydrological forecast is done aswell as the actual situation in the HPP. A first dangerevaluation is realized with the aim of knowing if thesystem presents an overflowing risk somewhere andif the HPP management is necessary. In positivecase, DSS will propose an optimal solution alwaystaking into account the risk, cost functions as well asthe uncertainties linked to the hydrological forecasts.When a new weather forecast is provided or newdata is available, a new situation analysis is done anda new management will be proposed.

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Figure 3: MINERVE operational scheme