Recommended Strategy for an Integrated National
Approach to EEPresentation to the Parliamentary
Portfolio Committee on Energy
6 September 2012
Energy EfficiencyHow are we Doing?
2
Score Card
SCORE
Fact Base - Lacking
Objectives - Arbitrary
Strategy – None
Implementation – Ad -
Hoc
Contents1. Status:
A. Fact Base
B. Objectives
C. Strategy
D. Implementation
2. Solution
3
Growth: Economic & Jobs Requires more energy
Source: ExxonMobil Outlook to 2040
Improved Standard of Living - Requires more energy
Source: ExxonMobil Outlook to 2040
Changing Energy Mix
RSA - Usage per sector Energy & Demand
Mining 18%
Industry 49%
Commerce
10%
Trans-port 2%
Agricul-ture 4% Residen-
tial 17%
Energy Consumption
Mining 14%
Industry 35%
Commerce 10%Transport 2%
Agriculture 4%
Residential 35%
Demand
Sources: Frost & Sullivan & Eskom
Myth Busting - “Industry is inefficient due to low electricity prices”.Industry have for a long time been working hard to reduce their energy intensity & will continue to do so
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.17
40 000
90 000
140 000
190 000
240 000
290 000
340 000
390 000
440 000
490 000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
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2012
2013
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2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
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2024
2025
2026
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2028
2029
2030
Inte
nsit
y M
Wh/
GD
P R
mill
ions
MW
h
RSA MWh net sentout
Electricity Intensity (MWh/Rm GDP)
Cost viz Potential: Setting Priorities
Need a Framework for Analysing Opportunity Specific Barriers
An example of “Addressing the barriers” in High Income Housing
Must Determine Potential: Probable, Doable & Most LikelyWithout serious economic Impact
BACK UP
Residential and commercial: Potential savings levers and initiativesWithout serious economic Impact
Bottom Up Fact Base Required Detail required for residential sector
(Source: DSM Sector Analysis, 2007. Residential demand: 13,908MW, Residential consumption: 46,402 GWh)
30
28
kitchen appliances (cooking, laundry and cool storage)
water heating
18
lighting
5
otherlosses
15
4
household consumption(% contribution per end use)
17 83
35 65
electricity consumption (% annual consumption)
maximum demand(% maximum demand)
residential all other sectors
residential all other sectors
14
LSM 1 – 3(number of appliances)
Market segment 1 (~21% of households)
And then by sector Type technologies and end uses varies across market segments
(Source: Frost and Sullivan Market Analysis for Residential market 2012
LSM 4 - 7(number of appliances)
LSM 8 – 10(number of appliances)
Market segment 2(~58% of households)
Market segment 3 (~21% of households)
54.1 m
4.1 m
6.5 m
22.1 m
10.7 m
0.09 m
1.2 m
2.4 m
44.4 m
3.2 m
5.0 m
11.2 m
5.5 m
0.8 m
2.4
2.4 m
2011/11/09 15
6.8 m
0.2 m
0.9 m
3.2 m
1.8 m
-
-
0.1 m
lighting
geysers HVAC (heating and cooling)
Kitchen appliancestelevisions
Pool pumps
Motors
Fans
Contents1. Status:
A. Fact Base
B. Objectives
C. Strategy
D. Implementation
2. Solution
16
Objective SettingAn Iterative Process to find the right target in time
17
Actual
ConsumerEnergy Usage
Best in Class
Best Known Technology
Theoretical Best
Compressible over time
Not Compressible
Contents1. Status:
A. Fact Base
B. Objectives
C. Strategy
D. Implementation
2. Solution
18
19
Step 1: Develop a thorough knowledge base
Step 2: Refine policy options and set targets
Step 3: Implement priority initiatives
Step 4: Establish a long-term Energy Efficiency Programme
Fact Base to ImplementationIn Integrated Phased Approach
Contents1. Status:
A. Fact Base
B. Objectives
C. Strategy
D. Implementation
2. Solution
20
EE Road Map (Example Carbon Budgeting
1. Plot Base line Emissions 1990 - 2010 and Inventory 2011
2. Plot the Three Emissions Outlook 2012 to 2050
3. Flagship Abatement Program
4. Develop and Agree GHG Data MRV Meta System
5. Develop National Reporting System (NEIS) "MRV"
6. Define Regulated Entities (Unique Generic Significant Activities)
7. Plot Macro Abatement Potential (Top Down)
8. Develop Sector Abatement Potential (Bottom Up)
9. Identify Assess Policy Suite Options
10. Assess and Select Policy Suite Options
11. Risk Assessments and Plans as Required
12. Develop South Africa Abatement Potential
13. Finalise Activity/Sector GHG Allocations
14. Finalise South Africa’s Draft 1ST Country Budget
15. 1st Pass Country 2050 Scenarios - Transitioning to a Low Carbon Economy
Jun Aug
Sept Dec
Jan Apr
Jun Aug
Sept Dec
Jan Apr
Jun Aug
Sept Dec
2012 2013 2014
Urgent Next Steps
Indicative only Still to be agreed
Project
Contents1. Status:
A. Fact Base
B. Objectives
C. Strategy
D. Implementation
2. Solution
22
Split of energy consumption across sectors*TWh; 2007
47
27
218
95Industrial
Mining
Residential
21Commercial
14International
8Agricultural
6Traction
Total
CountryBase Line
Past SavingsOpportunities
SectorBase Line
Past SavingsOpportunities
ServicesBase Line
Past SavingsOpportunities
FacilityBase Line
Past SavingsOpportunities
Top D
own
Average industry savings potential% consumption
8 18
6 15
15 30
10 20
10 15
12
10
8
20
Low effort
High effort
Residential and commercial consumption activitiesGWh
11 280Air-conditioning
10 260Lighting
6 480Water heating
4 050Standby
3 630Refrigeration
2 970Cooking
1 680Off ice equipment
7 650Other
48 000Total
Potential levers to reduce consumption Initiatives
• Use lower settings
• Reduce reliance on air-con and heaters
• Reduce water consumption
• Insulate properly• Use ef f icient appliances
• Use CFL bulb• Reduce street light
consumption
• Use solar water heaters, • install shower operations• Insulate geysers
and pipes
• Switch-of f appliances• Switch to ef f icient appliances
• Eff icient ref rigerators
• Roll-out gas stoves
• Use energy ef f icient of fice equipment
• Use ef f icient appliances
Estimated savings*GWh
*Cost estimatesRm / Gwh
1,900
1,100
330
790
670
28
490
330
0.5
0.9
11
1.2
1.2
0.8
1.2
1.2
5,630
• Switch-of f appliances at the source
• Use ef f icient ref rigerators
• Use less cooking time• Find alternative cooking
source• Use ef f icient equipment
• Use ef f icient appliances• Switch of f af ter use
1
2
3
4
6
5
**
Bottom
up
SimultaneousTop Down &Bottom up
24
CAMCO: Interaction between EE objectives and wider national development plans
Energy efficiency objectives
National and local spatial
planning
Transport planning
Economic and industrial
development
Research, innovation and
skills development Carbon
abatement policies
Built environment and human settlements
Environmental policies and air
quality management
Policy Integration
25
Monitoring and Evaluation
Planning
Implementation
Monitoring and evaluation
Review
Development of Knowledge base, including baseline setting
Formulation of Energy Efficiency Strategy & Action Plan
Target setting
Strategy and Action Plan review
Target review
Performance improvements and
decision making
Review of cost-effectiveness
Project implementation
Monitoring, reporting and
verification systems
Policy integration
Data monitoring and analysis
Reporting of results
Target evaluation
Thank You