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������
Reflections on ���Nelson & Winter, 1982
Johann Peter Murmann Australian School of Business
& Wharton
Presented at the Atlanta Competitive Advantage Conference, May 15, 2012
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Three Tasks
1. Establishing the influence of Nelson & Winter (1982) with a simple citation analysis 2. Trying to reconcile the goals of industrial organization economics (IO) and strategic management (SM) 3. Calling for more studies to determine the relative role of population level selection processes versus firm level adaptations in industrial change
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Dick Nelson and Sid Winter are rock stars !
Here is the Proof
Citation Analysis
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Picture of Nelson & Winter in the 1960s
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Citation Analysis
Average number of Web of Science citations to any of the 6 articles in the Strategic Management Journal
1982, No. 4
78.5
Citations per year since publication
2.62
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Citation Analysis
Average number of Web of Science citations to any of the 21 articles in the American Economic Review
1982, No. 5
73
Citations per year since publication
2.43
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Citation Analysis
Total Web of Science to Nelson & Winter, 1982
5895
Citations per year since publication
196.50
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Comparative Citation Analysis for N&W 1982
Average Number of Citations per year since publication
2.43
2.62
196.50
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00
Average Article in AER 1982, No. 5
Average Article in SMJ 1982, No. 4
Nelson & Winter, 1982
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Comparative Citation Analysis for N&W 1982
Total Number of Citations since publication
73
78.5
384
680
1304
3110
4411
5895
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Average Article in AER 1982, No. 5
Average Article in SMJ 1982, No. 4
Helfat & Peteraf, 2003
Tushman & Romanelli, 1985
Tushman & Anderson, 1986
Teece, Pisano, Shuen 1997
Cohen & Levinthal, 1990
Nelson & Winter, 1982
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Comparative Citation Analysis for N&W 1982
Average Number of Citations per year since publication
2.43
2.62
25.19
42.67
50.15
196.50
200.50
207.33
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00
Average Article in AER 1982, No. 5
Average Article in SMJ 1982, No. 4
Tushman & Romanelli, 1985
Helfat & Peteraf, 2003
Tushman & Anderson, 1986
Nelson & Winter, 1982
Cohen & Levinthal, 1990
Teece, Pisano, Shuen 1997
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Comparative Citation Analysis of Evolutionary Economics
& Transaction Cost Economics
243.15
196.50
158.13
112.22
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00
Williamson 1985 (1985-2012)
Nelson & Winter, 1982 (1982-2012)
Williamson 1985 (1985-2001)
Nelson & Winter, 1982 (1982-2001)
Average Number of Citations per year since publication
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Comparative Citation Analysis of EE & TCE
Growth in Average Number of Citations per year since 2001
1.5
1.8
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
Williamson 1985 (2001-2012)
Nelson & Winter, 1982 (2001-2012)
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Summary
Their 1982 book made Nelson & Winter the Academic Equivalent of Rock Stars
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Task 2: Reconciling Industrial Organization (IO) Economics and Strategic Management (SM)
There is a tension between the goals of IO economics and strategic management
• IO Economics fundamentally wants to prevent firms from making large profits at the expense of consumers.
• The field of strategy tries to help managers make large profits and create a sustainable competitive advantage
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Creating & Capturing Value
CREATE VALUE
Cost
CAPTURE VALUE
Focal Firm
Comple-mentors
Competitors
Suppliers
Consumers
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Sustaining Competitive Advantage by Capturing Value more value at the
expense of consumers
Focal Firm
Comple-mentors
Com- petitors
Suppliers
Con- sumers
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Sustaining Competitive Advantage by Capturing Value more value at the
expense of consumers
Focal Firm
Comple-mentors
Competitors
Suppliers
Consumers
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Resolving tension between IOE and SM by increasing pie for firm and consumers
Cost Cost Cost
Decrease Production
Cost
Increase Value
Added
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What is the key way to decrease cost or increase value added?
Innovation
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Task 3: Calling for more studies on the relative role of selection versus adaptation
1. Individual firm adaptation logic of industry change 2. Population selection logic of industrial change
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An Adaptation Process of Change!
Population of Firms at Time 2 Population of Firms at Time 1
Standard Firm Firm with Informal R&D Firm with Formal R&D
Heroic Managers
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Population of Firms at Time 2 Population of Firms at Time 1
Standard Firm Firm with Informal R&D Firm with Formal R&D
Industrial Change: A Selection Process!
Selection Filter
e.g. Profits
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Industry Demography 1857-1914 ! Number of
Firm Entries Number of Firm Exits
Firm Failure Rates
Germany 118 94 80%
France 68 57 83%
Britain 53 43 81%
United States 28 18 64%
Switzerland 32 26 81%
Source: Murmann (in Advance) @ Organization Science
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How much Adaptation versus Selection is there in Industrial Change ?
Only
Adaptation Only
Selection
50 %
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How much Adaptation versus Selection is there in Industrial Change ?
Only
Adaptation Only
Selection
75 / 25 %
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How much Adaptation versus Selection is there in Industrial Change ?
Only
Adaptation Only
Selection
25 / 75 %
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Firms try to make changes but often still don’t survive.
Danneels, E. (2011).
"Trying to become a different type of company: dynamic capability at Smith Corona."
Strategic Management Journal 32(1): 1-31.
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Henderson et al published list firms that have sustainable competitive advantage
Henderson, A. D., M. E. Raynor and M. Ahmed (2012).
"How long must a firm be great to rule out chance? Benchmarking sustained superior performance without being fooled by randomness.”
Strategic Management Journal 33(4): 387-406.
Let’s figure out what theses firms did differently from their less successful counterparts!
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I will post this presentation on http://economic-evolution.net
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301
187
88
272
154
21
8
5
4
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Strategic Management Journal
Organization Science
Academy of Management Journal
Research Policy
Industrial and Corporate Change
American Economic Review
Rand Journal of Economics
Journal of Political Economy
Econometrica
Encore: Total cites to Nelson & Winter (1982)