Download - Reliability Challenges White Paper
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Challenges White Paper
Victoria L. Ravenscroft Senior Policy Analyst
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Conclusions/Results
Outreach Efforts• Policy
briefs/white papers
• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy
forums
Work Plan Priorities
• Changing resource mix
• Retirement of conventional generation
• Integration of VER• Natural
gas/electric interdependency
• Changing load composition
• Protection system reliability
• Physical/Cyber security
• Human performance
• High impact-low frequency events
Busi
ness
Pla
n an
d Bu
dget
WEC
C st
aff w
hite
pap
er
Membership input
WIRAB input
Violations /Impact
Trends/Priorities
Annual meeting dialogue
Other input
Registered Entity Oversight
• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping
• Interconnection-wide models and data sets
• Near- and long-term planning studies
• Stability analysis
Reliability Planning
• Event Analysis• Independent BES
assessments• Operating Practices
survey(s)
Performance Analysis
Integrated Reliability Assurance Model
Conclusions/Results
Outreach Efforts• Policy
briefs/white papers
• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy
forums
Work Plan Priorities
• Changing resource mix
• Retirement of conventional generation
• Integration of VER• Natural
gas/electric interdependency
• Changing load composition
• Protection system reliability
• Physical/Cyber security
• Human performance
• High impact-low frequency events
Busi
ness
Pla
n an
d Bu
dget
WEC
C st
aff w
hite
pap
er
Membership input
WIRAB input
Violations /Impact
Trends/Priorities
Annual meeting dialogue
Other input
Registered Entity Oversight
• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping
• Interconnection-wide models and data sets
• Near- and long-term planning studies
• Stability analysis
Reliability Planning
• Event Analysis• Independent BES
assessments• Operating Practices
survey(s)
Performance Analysis
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Reliability Challenges White Paper
• First step in operationalizing the Integrated Reliability Assurance Model
• Culmination of conversations over last 4 months
• Staff developed, now seeking stakeholder feedback
• Feeds development of Work Plan Priorities
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Changing Resource Mix
Potential challenges …• Ensuring resource
adequacy
• Considering a wide range of drivers
• Accounting for system composition, e.g., resource location
2013 Capacity and Energy ProductionWestern Interconnection (U.S. only)
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Retirement of Conventional Generation
Potential challenges …• Planning for hydro
limitations
• Re-evaluating nuclear’s role
• Maintaining Essential Reliability Services
• Accounting for local, state, and federal policies
2013 Added and Retired Capacity (MW)
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Natural Gas-Electric Interdependencies
Potential challenges …• Understanding supply
issues
• Reconciling differences in scheduling practices
• Planning for and operating during severe weather events
2012 Natural Gas Consumption by Sector
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Changing Load Composition
Potential challenges …• Managing high levels of new
types of demand, e.g., PHEV• Accounting for demand-
related policies, e.g., energy efficiency
• Leveraging demand control and reduction mechanisms, e.g., demand-side management
2012 Electricity Consumption by Sector(Western Interconnection U.S. only)
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Effects of Changing Climate
Potential challenges …• Managing the operational impacts
from changes in – Temperature– Extreme weather events– Wildfires
• Planning for resource adequacy impacts
• Coping with immediate and long-term effects of drought
• Responding to policies addressing climate change
Western Climate Regions
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Integration of Variable Generation
Potential challenges …• Understanding the
drivers
• Managing uncertainty
• Balancing variability
Wind and Solar Capacity Additions (MW)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
SolarWind
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Balancing Variability
Potential challenges …• Planning for flexibility
• Holding Operating Reserves
• Diversifying variability
• Implementing scheduling changes
Example Wind and Solar Base-Load Ramping Scenario
34
30
26
22
18
14
10
8
6
4
2
0
Load
& N
et L
oad
(1,0
00 M
W) W
ind & Solar (1,000 M
W)
0:00
6:00
12:0
0
18:0
0
24:0
0
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Distributed Generation
Potential challenges …• Managing variability• Improving visibility of DG resources• Coordinating control of DG resources• Reconciling practices and standards on response to
faults
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Situational Awareness
Potential challenges …• Increasing use of real-
time tools
• Coordinating information and data exchange
• Expanding external visibility in models
• Improving consistency and quality of next-day studies
Use of Situational Awareness Tools(% Entities Surveyed in 2014)
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Equipment Failure
Potential challenges …• Reducing outages
caused by equipment failure
• Minimizing the impact of equipment failures
Automatic Transmission Outages Caused by Equipment Failure
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
50
100
150
200
250
300
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Protection System Reliability
Potential challenges …• Evaluating and managing
the interaction of RAS
• Ensuring proper relay settings
• Reducing relay misoperations
2013 Misoperations by Cause
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Operational Practices
Potential challenges …• Evaluating trends in operational practices
• Identifying best practices
• Promoting adoption of practices across diverse entities
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Cybersecurity
Potential challenges …• Securing assets and managing access • Detecting potential threats• Balancing benefits of technology with increased
exposure to cyber risks• Identifying significant vulnerabilities on
regional/Interconnection-wide basis
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Physical Security
Potential challenges …• Ensuring proactive
approach to physical security
• Securing grid against a range of threats
• Implementing CIP-014-1
• Managing costs
• Addressing accessibility of assets
2011 2012 2013 Total
Physical Attack 1 2 6 9
Physical Attack – Vandalism 38 11 25 74
Suspected Physical Attack 12 22 5 39
Suspicious Activity 2 1
Total 53 35 37 125
Physical Security Electric Disturbances (DOE Form OE-417)
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High-Impact Low-Frequency Events
Potential challenges …• Preventing coordinated cyber and/or physical attack• Mitigating potential impacts of geomagnetic
disturbances• Identifying potential impacts of a pandemic• Predicting and mitigating impacts of large-scale
disasters• Balancing probability v. risk in investment decisions
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Impacts of State Policy and Regulation
Potential challenges …• Identifying policy and
regulatory drivers
• Ensuring policies and regulations consider reliability concerns
• Emphasizing interconnected nature of the grid
Western Climate Regions
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EPA 111(d) Clean Power Plan
Potential challenges …• Evaluating the reliability impacts
• Accounting for flexibility in implementation
EPA 111(d) Compliance Building Blocks
Building Block 1: Coal Plant Efficiency
Improve the heat rate of coal-fired power plants by 6%.
Building Block 2: Increased Gas Use
Increase utilization of gas plants up to 70% capacity factor.
Building Block 3: Renewables and Nuclear
Increase renewable and nuclear generation. Delay or cancel nuclear retirements.
Building Block 4: Energy Efficiency
Increase energy efficiency to reduce demand by 1.5% per year.
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Functional Model
Potential challenges …• Aligning registration with
the Functional Model
• Addressing gaps in Planning Coordinator registration
• Evaluating role of the Path Operator
• Coordinating seams issues between registered functions
Count of Selected Registered Entities in the Western Interconnection
Registered Entities #
Balancing Authority (BA) 37
Generation Operator (GOP) 241
Generation Owner (GO) 247
Load Serving Entity (LSE) 121
Planning Authority (PA) 31
Reserve Sharing Group (RSG) 3
Resource Planner (RP) 56
Transmission Operator (TOP) 65
Transmission Owner (TO) 97
Transmission Planner (TP) 47
Transmission Service Provider (TSP) 37
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Workforce
Potential challenges …• Managing the workforce retirement transition• Addressing the reduction in knowledge capital• Managing cognitive overload created by increasing
volume of tools, information, etc.
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
Feedback
Seeking feedback on• Challenges• Actions• In-Progress and Planned
WorkNOT seeking• Redline or editorial
changes
Website www.wecc.biz
(link on front page)
Email feedback to [email protected]
Feedback DeadlineOctober 31, 2014
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Integrated Reliability Assurance Model
Conclusions/Results
Work Plan Priorities
• Changing resource mix
• Retirement of conventional generation
• Integration of VER• Natural
gas/electric interdependency
• Changing load composition
• Protection system reliability
• Physical/Cyber security
• Human performance
• High impact-low frequency events
Busi
ness
Pla
n an
d Bu
dget
WEC
C st
aff w
hite
pap
er
Membership input
WIRAB input
Violations /Impact
Trends/Priorities
Annual meeting dialogue
Other input
Registered Entity Oversight
• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping
• Interconnection-wide models and data sets
• Near- and long-term planning studies
• Stability analysis
Reliability Planning
• Event Analysis• Independent BES
assessments• Operating Practices
survey(s)
Performance Analysis
Outreach Efforts• Policy
briefs/white papers
• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy
forums
Performance Analysis
Registered Entity Oversight
Reliability Planning
Stakeholder Outreach
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AdequacyAssessments
Contingency Analyses
Event Analysis
Policy Impact Studies
Congestion Analyses
Stability Studies
Reliability Issue
Integrated Approach to Addressing Key Reliability Issues
What are the potential impacts to RELIABILITY?
Reliability Issue
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W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L
White Paper Feedback
Website www.wecc.biz
(link on front page)
Email feedback to [email protected]
Feedback DeadlineOctober 31, 2014