Risk Management and Scenario Planning
By James Joseph WasilSenior IT Strategist
Ohio BWCJanuary 9, 2014
Why is Risk Management Poised to take on Scenario Planning?
Organizations such as ISACA and PMI are taking on governance.
Governance seeks to ensure that strategies in the organization are working toward its mission and goals.
Risk Management is becoming more and more important and strategy must be a function of risk appetite in an organization.
Why is Risk Management Poised to take on Scenario Planning?
Faith is waning in traditional strategic planning efforts that generate forecasts that are usually wrong.
The most likely weakness in most strategies is underestimating risk.
Risk Management is evolving!
The Evolution of Risk Management
OFFENSIVE -
Risk / Reward-Driven
ERM
KEY QUESTIONHow do we make better decisions about uncertainties that affect our future?
KEY ACTIVITYEstablish overarching framework for managing the organization's most significant risks
KEY OBJECTIVEEnhance the achievement of strategic objectives and board risk oversight
INTEGRAT
ED
KEY QUESTIONWhat are the key threats we face in achieving our business objectives and how should we respond
KEY ACTIVITY
DEFENSIVE – Cost / Benefit-Driven
Risk Identification, analysis with coordination from other risk management functions
KEY OBJECTIVEEstablish process for proactively managing operational threats to the business
TRADITIONAL
KEY QUESTIONWhat are the insurable and contra tual risks we face, and what are we doing to mitigate them?
KEY ACTIVITYHazard based risk identification
KEY OBJECTIVETreat risk as an expense item, managed through an insurance biuying and/ or hedging function
From “Forging a Collaborative Alliance, RIMS & IA, 2012
Risk Management is in the business of developing and sustaining an organizational capacity for foresight (Maree Conway), and
The traditional business areas need to be incorporating this type of thinking into their strategic planning.
One way to incorporate foresight is through scenario planning.
Conjoining Strategic Planning Function and Risk Management
The Context of Business is Changing
“Traditional strategic planning models are increasingly viewed as not producing strategy that can deal with complexity, uncertainty and rapid change in the external environment.”*
*Maree Conway - Swinburne University of Technology, and Thinking Futures
Complexity
Ashby’s Law:
If a system is to be stable the number of states of its control mechanism must be greater than or equal to the number of states in the system being controlled.
Complexity
Ashby’s Law Restated:
The only way to destroy variety is through variety.
Variety (Complexity) Variety (Flexibility))
Strategic Flexibility
Strategic Flexibility
is the optimum combination of
strategic robustness and
strategic responsiveness
Concept from Lindgren and Bandhold
Robustness
Robustness is defined as “the potential for success under varying future circumstances or scenarios.” More specifically,
The likelihood that the organization will not need to change in order to meet the challenge is called the “robustness of the organization.”
Concept from Lindgren and Bandhold
Responsiveness
Responsiveness is defined as the ability to
1. rapidly sense change in the environment,
2. conceptualize a response to that change, and
3. reconfigure resources to execute the response.
Definitions are from Lindgren and Bandhold
OODA Loops*
Planning:
Observation
OrientationDecision
Action
* From John Boyd
• Faster cycling trend
•Need to fly by the wire by balancing stability and instability
Agility - Rate of Change
Just as in IT, strategy research has recently focused on the need for agile strategies, able to change upon the wind of a mere scent just blowing by.
Scenario planning has been identified as a method for accommodating rapid change
Bolstering Strategic Planning
Strategic planning does consider the future since strategy involves the future, however it typically does not consider the future in a systematic way.
From Maree Conway
RISK SCENARIO
PLANNING
UNCERTAINTY
What is Uncertainty?
Uncertainty is the lack of complete certainty - that is, the existence of more than one possibility (scenario). The “true outcome / state / result / value is not known* (perhaps until some future time)
* Douglas Hubbard. Parentheses by Wasil
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is “local”, i.e., my uncertainty is different from yours.
There are more uncertain things than certain things.
All statements regarding the future are uncertain to some extent.
It is better to accept and recognize uncertainty. (this is the basis for scenario planning)
From Lindely, Understanding Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Approach to uncertainty involves setting up beliefs – a way to organize you beliefs in a reasoned way which leads to a reasoned action.
We use a normative (prescriptive) approach
From Understanding Uncertainty, Lindley
Great News! Life is Uncertain
We have free will, therefore we can decide more or less what we want to do!
When we get to certainty…then we are dead!
Types of Uncertainty
Unknowable uncertainty - the event cannot be imagined.
From Heijden
Types of Uncertainty
Risk uncertainty - Risk is a state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, injury, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome
From Hubbard
The History of Risk, ER and ERMFrank H. Knight (1885-1972)American economics scholarUniversity of Chicago
Classic work on Risk (1921) set its definition based in the context of uncertainty:
If we cannot quantify outcome probabilities we have UNCERTAINTY.If we can quantify outcome probabilities then we have RISK.
Heinrich’s Dominoes
“
H.W. Heinrich was the Assistant Superintendent of Engineering and Inspection Division of the Travelers Insurance Company
Hubbard’s Definition of Risk
“The probability and magnitude of a loss, disaster, or other undesirable event.That is, “Something bad could happen”
Risk Management - “The identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events.
That is, “Being smart about taking chances.”
What is Risk? Risk Management?
International Standard ISO 31000 on Risk management – Principles and guidelines.
This is the latest source on risk management
What is Risk and Risk Management?
Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives where
an effect is a positive and/or negative deviationObjectives an have different aspects (financial,
S&H, environmental) or a combinationRisk is often referenced to potential events and
consequences or a combinationRisk is often expressed in terms of the
consequences of an event and the associated likelihood of occurrence.
From ISO 31000:2009
Risk Management is an Evolving Field
Balanced Scorecard is the prime Strategy Execution Framework among the Fortune 500
Risk Management is an Evolving FieldRobert S. Kaplan now venturing into Risk Management
Three Kinds of Risks:
Category I – Preventable Risks
Category II - Strategy Risks
Category III - External Risks
ERM Definitions from RIMS and IIA
RIMS:“Enterprise risk management is a strategic business discipline that supports the achievement of an organization’s objectives by addressing the full spectrum of its risks and managing the combined impact of those risks as an inter-related risk portfolio.”
From “Forging a Collaborative Alliance, RIMS & IA, 2012
ERM Definitions from RIMS and IIA
IIA:“Enterprise risk management is a structured, consistent and continuous process across the whole organization for identifying, assessing, deciding on responses to and reporting on opportunities and threats that affect the achievement of its objectives”
From “Forging a Collaborative Alliance, RIMS & IA, 2012
Both ERM and IA Use Similar Tools
RIMS IIA
ERM is a discipline ERM is a process
ISO 31000:2009 ISO 31000:2009
IPPF, COSO, ERM Framework, OCEG “red book”
Both organizations believe that they are more effective when they work together!
Strategic planning uses Forecasts
A forecast is like a vector in that it has direction and magnitude
Scenario planning uses Scenarios
Scenarios cover, or envelope two or more axes of uncertainties
Axis of Uncertainty “Y”
Axis of Uncertainty “X”
Scenario BHigh YHigh X
Scenario AHigh YLow X
Scenario DLow YHigh X
Scenario CLow YLow X
For Two Axes of Uncertainty
Definitions of Scenarios
An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be - not a forecast, but one possible future outcome.
Michael Porter
Definitions of Scenarios (cont’d)
A description of a future situation and the course of events which allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation. Two major categories:
◦ Exploratory - starting from past and present trends and leading to a likely futures;
◦ Anticipatory or normative - built on the basis of different visions of the future to be desired or feared.
Michel Godet
Definitions of Scenarios (cont’d)
“narrative stories that follow particular paths into the future based on research, trends, and key concerns of the managers who will use them.”
- Korte and Chermack
Important Distinction on Scenarios
Scenarios are not about predicting the future, rather they are about perceiving futures in the present.
Schwarz
-Scenario Planning Methodologies
Intuitive Logics - SRI, Pierre Wack, Ralston and Wilson
Trend-impact analysis - Futures Group
Cross-impact analysis - Battelle
General Scenario Planning using Intuitive Logics Approach
Identify the central question / problem (Decision Focus)
Using executive peer groups, gain a consensus on what the key strategic decision is that the organization is facing. This will be your decision focus, and the scenario planning context.
Note that it will be an agreement on how the scenarios will be used.
(we are only interested in certain aspects of the future, not the future.)
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Planning using Intuitive Logics Approach
Identify the central question / problem (Decision Focus)
As an example, say you are in the energy business. Energy looks like a mixed bag. Coal and Nuclear becoming harder while fracking, solar, and wind are starting to produce.
Your focus might be
How are we going to be able to deliver energy inexpensively and reliably over the next 30 years?
Form the focus as a explanatory paragraph.
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Identify key decision factors (KDFs)
Determine what the key external factors / issues are regarding the future that we want to know more about to improve our understanding.
These KDFs are external, largely uncontrollable conditions.
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Identify key decision factors (KDFs)
Example: How will fracking impact domestic energy production?
How will wind power be incorporated into the grid?
What new security threats /requirements will the grid face?
Will nuclear energy again become promising?
Etc.
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Cluster the key decision factor (KDFs)
Categorize KDFs that fall into groups.
Example: Energy Costs
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Research driving forces and drivers
Since there is no source that predicts the future, the team must analyze the forces that determine the KDF outcomes. These are things like trends, forces, factors, events, areas of uncertainty
This is analogous to the PESTEL analysis strategists perform, but is very rigorous.
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Research and rank key factors and driving forces
Use an impact / uncertainty matrix to accomplish
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
Degree of Uncertainty
Low Med High Level of Impact /Importance
High
Med
Low
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Develop scenario logics
Identify the key axes of uncertainty
Example: Say that we identified key axes:
Technology, Resources, Environmental Issues, Cost, Security
As potential axes. We pick the two most important axes of uncertainty.
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)Determine Alternate Logics for Each Axis (technology and
energy costs)
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
Scenario BHigh
technology High costs
Scenario AHigh
technology Low costs
Scenario DLow
technology High costs
Scenario CLow
technology Low costs
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
Prepare narratives for each scenario, with a descriptive name. These are brief descriptions one or two paragraphs; A narrative of how each scenario might evolve
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
Example: High Technology High Cost otherwise known as “Responsible Technology Scenario”
General Scenario Approach (Schwartz)
As the end of the twenties arrives, the landscape is complete with wind farms occupying positions among citizens, who themselves are putting energy back into the grid with their solar energy panels, and even their electric cars. But the cost has been high. The grid is now robust, but costs to secure it have been very high in terms of purchasing multiple access right of ways, thousands of miles of underground high voltage equipment, and smart grid appliances that regulate millions of homes. Even though fusion has not become economical yet, efforts have…
Excerpted From Ralston and Wilson, Scenario planning Handbook
Example: High Technology High Cost otherwise known as “Responsible Technology Scenario”
After the scenario planning
Strategic plans back up the scenarios
◦ Some strategies will work in all scenarios
◦ Some strategies will be risky in some scenarios
◦ Some strategies may pay off big in only one or two scenarios
Strategies based on Scenario planning are more effective and offer agility and flexibility.
ERM and “Black Swans”
Black swans are The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare
events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
Recommendations
Risk Management should Ensure that your organization does some form of strategic planningParticipate in Strategic Planning ExercisesLead in environmental assessments such as PESTEL and SWOTWork towards forming a Knowledge center and toward becoming a learning organization Start to engage top management into looking into scenario planning (but be careful here….)Start becoming informed on scenario planning yourself!
Risk Management is an Evolving FieldNassim Nicholas Taleb
Scenario Planning can prevent Black Swans
Black Swans are most dangerous when “end of tail” operations are likely to occur.
Risk Management can gauge if scenarios and ancillary strategies take us there!
Scenario Planning is an Evolving Field
Scenario Planning is an Evolving Field
Good scenarios are not enough
To be effective, they must involve management, top and middle, in understanding and anticipating the unfolding business environment much more intimately than would be the case in the traditional planning process.
Pierre Wack
Questions and Attempts at Answers