Rural Health and Texas Demographic
Characteristics and Trends
2011 Texas Rural Health Forum
September 14, 2011San Antonio, TX
2
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
3
Percent ChangeDue to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangeNatural
IncreaseNet
MigrationPercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33
*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
4
Texas Business-Cycle Index
5
Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth
6
Texas and U.S. Unemployment Rate
7
Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate, 1990-2010
8
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 to 2001
2001 to 2002
2002 to 2003
2003 to 2004
2004 to 2005
2005 to 2006
2006 to 2007
2007 to 2008
2008 to 2009
InternationalState-to-State
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009
9
Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009
Net domesti
c migr
ation
International
migrati
onTotal
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
44%24% 33%
28%50% 40%
23% 8% 15%
5%18% 12%
OtherBlackHispanicWhite
67% of all migrants
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
52% of all migrants were international
10
Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) as a Percentage of 2000 Population by County
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Legend-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
11
Legend0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) as a Percentage of 2000 Population by County
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
His-panic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
13
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000
Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anlgo Female Hispanic Female
Black Female Other Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race and Ethnicity, 2010
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.
14
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Anglo Male Anlgo Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race and Ethnicity, 2010
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black FemaleOther Female
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.
15
Total Population by County, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
16
Numeric Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
17
Percent Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010
Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
Percent of Population Less Than 18 Years of Age Living Under Poverty During Past 12 Months
by County, 2005-2009
5-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-55%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
20
Percent of People Below Poverty in the Past 12 Months (for whom poverty status is determined)
by Metro and Non-Metro Area and County, 2005-2009
Metropolitan Areasless than 10%
10% to 15%
15.1% to 20%
greater than 20%
Non-Metropolitan Areasless than 10%
10% to 15%
15.1% to 20%
greater than 20%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
21
Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009
Metropolitan Areasless than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
PUMAs
Non-Metropolitan Areasless than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
Metropolitan Areasless than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
PUMAs
Non-Metropolitan Areasless than 20%
20.0% to 22.9%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey .Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
The Census Bureau estimates that in 2009 Texas had the highest uninsured rate in the country, at 26.1%, or 6.4 million people.
Texas also had the highest uninsured rate of children, with 17.4%, or 1.28 million children lacking insurance.
22
Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+
'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p0
GT 0 - LE 5
GT 5 - LE 10
GT 10 - LE 20
GT 20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
23
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001
0
.01-.5
.51-1
1.1-1.5
1.51-4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010
Not Border Border Not Border BorderNon-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total
020406080
100120140160180200
95
53
175
110
159
2009Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.
Physicians per 100,000 byMetro & Border Status of Counties, 2009
24
25Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections.
Year
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
26
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
AngloBlackHispanicOther
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040
2040 PopulationP_40
36 - 1000
1001 - 10000
10001 - 50000
50001 - 100000
100001 - 500000
500001 - 1000000
1000001 - 8000000
Projected Population by Texas Counties, 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
28
Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated
Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009TOT_POPP9
LE 10%
GT 10% - LE 15%
GT 15% - LE 20%
GT 20% - LE 25%
GT 25%
Total Population aged 65 plus 2009TOT_POP9
LE 5,000
GT 5,000 - LE 15,000
GT 15,000 - LE 25,000
GT 25,000 - LE 100,000
GT 100,000
Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000 Count 2040 Projection
Percent 65 Years Old and Older< 11.9 (n=66)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
20.0 or more (n=38)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
Percent 65 Years Old and Older< 11.9 (n=2)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
20.0 or more (n=154)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.
<11.912.0 – 14.915.0 – 19.920.0 or more
29Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
30
Projected Population Among Older Texans
20002003
20062009
20122015
20182021
20242027
20302033
20362039
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Age 65-74 Age 75-85 Age 85+
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00AngloHispanicAfrican AmericanOther
Projection of Ethnicity of Texas PopulationAged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040
31Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
32
Projected Increase of Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006-2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
33
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity for Texas, 2010-2040
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Total Latino Anglo African American Other
Pro
ject
ed P
erso
ns w
ith D
iabe
tes
Source: Office of the State Demographer. 2006 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.
34
Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040
LE 15%
15-20%
20-25%
25-30%
30-37.5%
2010 2040
35
Demographics and Destiny
36
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.