Safety:is a
Moving Target
Capt Jo GillespieGates Aviation
www.gatesaviation.comGates Aviation Limited - London
www.gatesaviation.com
Safety: is a Moving Target
• Agree some definitions
• Stakeholder targets
• An ‘African Problem’
• The SMS Solution…
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Captain Jo Gillespie• 30 years and 14,000 hours as a pilot• Military, general, business and
commercial• 25 years in aviation safety & risk
management• 17 years Emirates Flight Safety• Numerous accident/incident
investigations• Expert witness in support of liability
claim defences• Interim director of safety• Safety/Risk trainer & facilitator
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
TUC?Time of Useful Consciousness
- Usually applied to hypoxia in decompression
Applied to safety presentations?- About 30 minutes…
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Some simple definitions:
• SAFETY– The absence of ‘HARM’
• HARM– Loss, Damage, Injury or Death
Everyone happy to accept these?For the next 30 minutes at least…
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Depends who is aiming…
Operators:• Carry insurance so are they expecting HARM?
• Aware of historical HARM so can’t deny risk
• SMS to reduce risk not eliminate it
• Need to take risks to competeGates Aviation Limited - London
www.gatesaviation.com
• If they expect no loss then no premium
• Calculated bet on magnitude of losses
• Unduly optimistic!
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Depends who is aiming…
Insurers:
• Adopted ALARP in SMS – cost/technology
• Adopted ‘tolerable’ risk – some acceptable
• Adopted ‘continuous improvement’
• Montreal provisions for compensation
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Depends who is aiming…
Regulators:
• Each expects to arrive totally unharmed
• Wants bags and possessions undamaged
• Equates to expectation of 100% safety, or:
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Depends who is aiming…
Passengers:
• Each individual on the aircraft has the same expectations
• Take all the aircraft on the apron… 100s/1000s
• Extrapolate out to friends, relatives, employers – MILLIONS EXPECT ZERO HARM
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Depends who is aiming…
Passengers:
• Sometimes known as the ‘EU Blacklist’• Purports to be about operator safety• Primarily about regulators• Should be called ‘List of Banned Countries’• Effectively tells citizens NOT to fly
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
The African Problem:Country ‘C’
European Commission List
• Is Country ‘C’ on the list?
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
The African Problem:Country ‘C’
European Commission List
Country C
• Bans carriers to/from EU and Country ‘C’• Advises EU citizens not to fly on Country ‘C’
carriers• Allows EU carriers to fly to Country ‘C’
– Although airspace/airports regulated by same regulator
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
The African Problem:Country ‘C’
European Commission List
• Liability claim High Court London, early 2015• Charter aircraft crashed in Country ‘C’• Claimed charterer/employer should have:
– Seen the ICAO USOAP graph;– Read the EC Blacklist;– Categorically refused to fly in Country ‘C’
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
The African Problem:Country ‘C’
• Europe has moved its safety target
• 40 years ago it would have had to ban itself
• In 40 years time no doubt will have a new target
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
The African Problem:
What about SMS?
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
Get those 4 pillars in place and all will be well…
• What does it aim to replace?
• ‘We meet the regulations so we must be safe’?– can become:
• ‘We have SMS so we must be safe’?
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
What about SMS?
SMS – the Stakeholders’ View
• Senior management– Got to have it– Useful badge
• Middle management– Functional tool– Administrative burden
• Workforce– Want to go home in roughly the same state they
came to work!
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
• Depends entirely on management commitment
• Must be externally reviewed
• Requires vigilant regulators
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com
What about SMS?
Is Safety a Moving Target?
• YES IT IS!• Depends who is aiming• Depends where they are aiming from• SMS can help or hinder• Target changes with time
Gates Aviation Limited - London www.gatesaviation.com