Dav id A d eo lu wa S a n g o koya
C en te r fo r Dem o c r a c y, Deve lo p m en t a n d Ru le o f L aw H o n o r s P ro g r a m
A d v iso r s : L a r r y D ia m o n d , Ka t h r y n S to n er - We iss , J e r emy We in s te in
S t a n fo r d Un i ve r s i t y
M ay 2 010
DEVELOPING OUT OF
DISPLACEMENT
Exploring Variation in Economic Recovery of Northern
Uganda and Other Countries Following Displacement-
Inducing Conflict
©2008 guardian.co.uk | Acholi IDP camp in Unyama
“We used to have community structures…but all that has died
down. Dif ferent cultures..when people came together in a
camp, mixed up. No one is interested bringing back old strong
community structures, and we’re stuck in subsistence farming …
Government says the GDP has grown, GNP is doing well , the GTP is
doing well . In the commands of some few. The rural people are sti l l
in sh--… People have returned, f ine…but they’ve just taken their
corpses for burial. Most people have lost hope, they cannot l ive a
productive l ife…that is the big sh-- we’re in [af ter coming back from
the camps].”
- Interview, UNICEF -Lira employee, July 2008
IS RECOVERY POSSIBLE?
Despite overall losses, displacement throws up ―winners‖ and
―losers‖ in terms of growth recovery…
RESEARCH QUESTION
What causes variation in the rate of
growth recovery after displacement-
inducing conflict?
Part 1: Defining variables
Displacement-inducing conflict ● conflict vs. post-conflict ● refugee ●
IDP ● durable solutions ● growth recovery
Part 2: Identifying and analyzing variation
Methodology
Strong growth recovery vs. weak growth recovery: Sierra Leone (SGR)
and Burundi (WGR)
Land tenure and growth
Part 3: Developing out of displacement in northern Uganda
Part 4: Market development after displacement -inducing
conflict
To redistribute or not redistribute: Can you address inequality and
poverty reduction while promoting economic growth after conflict?
Land tenure and market development—in the short run and long run
DEVELOPING OUT OF DISPLACEMENT
Forced
migrat ion
Conf l ict and
―post -confl ict‖
scenar ios
Durable
so lut ions
Growth
recover y
PART ONE:
DEFINING
VARIABLES
©2010 UNHCR in Sudan
http://eos.io
1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be
complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-
inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt
describe how things are; affects how organizations determine solutions , and indicate
for success.
Displacement-inducing agents: conflict (political violence),
development projects, disasters, environmental*
Causes of displacement-inducing conflict:
Breaches in local, personal security: government terror, dissident
violence, civil wars, and international wars on a territory (Moore and
Shellman 2004)
Voluntary and involuntary migrants: who’s forced?
UNHCR, national governments and international community
determine and define their constituency, despite problematic
nature of distinction
History of the refugee (1945-); IDPs (2000-)
Durable solutions to displacement: return, resettlement, and
reintegration (refugee flows and IDPs)
Definitions and identities
CONFLICT, DISPLACEMENT, AND
DURABLE SOLUTIONS
From conflict to ―post -conflict‖: developing a typology for
indicating transition to ―post -conflict‖ scenario
UNDP 2008 Report on Post-Conflict Growth Recovery
Criteria:
Post-war annual GDP per capita growth averages of 2% or higher
Higher average post-conflict growth rate than pre-conflict growth rate
Strong growth recovery (SGR) countries:
Weak growth recovery (WGR) countries:
Micro-foundations of human migration and
conflict, complemented with macro -level analysis
DEFINING GROWTH RECOVERY
Methodology
St rong growth
recover y vs .
weak growth
recover y
Sier ra Leone
Burundi
Land tenure
and growth
PART TWO:
IDENTIFYING
AND
ANALYZING
VARIATION
©2010 Farmer overlooks the farm land
outside Kigali, Rwanda | Foreign Policy
2. After crises such as displacement-inducing conflict, effective recovery policy
matters.
3. Postwar grievances matter.
Economic and historical analysis of a SGR and WGR country
during and after conflict
Michael Cernea’s Implementation Risks and Reconstruction
(IRR) Model – understanding the effects of displacement
Qualitative analysis
Variation of rate of growth recovery in country case studies
Variation in growth recovery across post -camp northern
Uganda
Independent variables:
METHODOLOGY
Information from Doyle and Sambanis (2000) dataset on civi l wars; UNDP 2008 Report – SGR and WGR; World Bank DDP Query; IMF DataMapper®; UNHCR Statistical Yearbooks 1994 -2007
Dataset
Country cases entering into post-conflict ―transition‖ after 1990
Average GDP per capita annual percent growth rate
Stock number of UNHCR-assisted displaced persons (refugees and IDPs) from 1990-2008 (per thousand population)
CASE SELECTION
Growth Recovery
Country Year start Years in conflict
Year end Years post-conflict (until 2008)
Average GDP per capita annual percent growth rate
Average number displaced during conflict
SGR Angola 1975 27 2002 6 11.8 7.0002SGR Liberia 1989 14 2003 5 2.8 133.71SGR Sierra Leone 1991 10 2001 7 8.0 77.568WGR Burundi 1991 14 2005 3 0.4 41.849WGR Guatemala 1965 30 1995 13 0.6 0.7699WGR Papua New
Guinea1988 10 1998 10 -1.2 1.4381
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
E-14E-13E-12E-11E-10 E-9 E-8 E-7 E-6 E-5 E-4 E-3 E-2 E-1 EC E+1 E+2 E+3
GDP Based on PPP Per Capita Relative to End of Conflict (1991-2012), Magnitude of Displaced Persons Per 1,000
Burundi, refugees (1994-2007)
Sierra Leone, refugees (1994-2007)
Burundi (1991-2005)
Sierra Leone (1991-2001)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Burundi, refugees (1994-2007))
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Sierra Leone, refugees (1994-2007))
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Agricultural land (% of land area) - Burundi and Sierra Leone
Agricultural land (% of land area) - Burundi
Agricultural land (% of land area) - Sierra
Leone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - Burundi and Sierra Leone
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) -
Burundi
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - Sierra
Leone
Camp Displacement and Demographic Composition of
Resettled Communities – Ex-combatants and DDR
Natural, physical, human, and social capital recovery — land
tenure systems
VARIATION IN GROWTH RECOVERY
Histor y, d isp lacement
, and growth
Land tenure re form?
Recommendat ions
for Ugandan
government and
NGOs
PART THREE:
DEVELOPING
OUT OF
DISPLACEMENT
IN NORTHERN
UGANDA
Lira, Uganda, outside of Sankofa Cafe
December 2010
1. Macro-level, deductive observations by international, nonstate actors must be
complemented with adequate ___ of micro-level foundations of displacement-
inducing conflict. How organizations define people and places must more closelyt
describe how things are; affects how
History
Conflict Patterns 1
Conflict Patterns 2
Conflict Patterns 3
Displacement
PATTERNS OF CONFLICT AND
DISPLACEMENT
Camp closure and phaseout
Economic profile of Lira, northern Uganda in general
Land tenure reform?
Addressing inequality and growth
HEADING TOWARD SGR OR WGR?
To redist r ibute or not redis t r ibute?
Growth recover y and market deve lopment —toward ―peace economies‖
Frameworks for market deve lopment
Land tenure and market deve lopment
Summar y
Future Research
PART FOUR:
MARKET
DEVELOPMENT
AFTER
DISPLACEMENT
-INDUCING
CONFLICT
Kampala, Uganda, outside of IOM’s head
office | December 2010
Basic macroeconomics: developing countries must focus on
growth first, and then mechanisms for redistribution
Increasing the pie increase individual slices
Commitment issues
Effects of displacement and conflict: loss of
assets, skills, and productivity; damage of infrastructure and
former market networks
Is it possible to address inequality while promoting economic
growth?
Northern Uganda and Southern Uganda
ADDRESSING INEQUALITY AND GROWTH
Growth important in order to have any peace:
Market development to promote peace—towards ―peace economies‖
Peacebuilding and economic recovery
Framework for developing market development programmes
that do not aggravate causes of conflict:
1. Value Chain Framework: Understanding national supply and demand
between suppliers and buyers and determining governance structures
2. Making Markets Work for the Poor (M4P): Increasing incomes and enabling
scale, sustainability and systemic market change
3. Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP): Developing scalable products and services
that work for the poor
4. Social Enterprise: Inserting social enterprises into critical gaps in the
market
GROWTH RECOVERY AND MARKET
DEVELOPMENT
Land tenure reform functions in Value Chain Framework
Short-term effects in Sierra Leone, possible solutions to landlessness
in northern Uganda and variation in growth recovery
Tailoring market development strategies to peacebuilding
initiatives
Political economy of each conflict, identities of actors involved, and
pre- and post-conflict market analyses matter
Ultimately, increased growth will only occur with changes in
incentives (Easterly)
LAND TENURE REFORM AND MARKET
DEVELOPMENT: PANACEA?
“…People have returned, f ine…but they’ve jus t taken the ir corpses for bur ia l . Most
people have los t hope, they cannot l i ve a product ive l i fe…that is the b ig sh - - we’re in
[a f ter coming back f rom the camps] .”
- In ter v iew, UNICEF -L ira employee, Ju ly 2008
WHAT CAUSES VARIATION IN THE
RATE OF GROWTH RECOVERY
AFTER DISPLACEMENT-INDUCING CONFLICT?
• Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.
• The impact of displacement is significant.
• Addressing postwar grievances matters.
• Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.
• Market development of ―peace economies‖ is crucial.
“…People have returned, f ine…but they’ve jus t taken the ir corpses for bur ia l . Most
people have los t hope, they cannot l i ve a product ive l i fe…that is the b ig sh - - we’re in
[a f ter coming back f rom the camps] .”
- In ter v iew, UNICEF -L ira employee, Ju ly 2008
WHAT CAUSES VARIATION IN THE
RATE OF GROWTH RECOVERY
AFTER DISPLACEMENT-INDUCING CONFLICT?
• Definitions are necessary, but can both ameliorate and suffocate.
• The impact of displacement is significant.
• Addressing postwar grievances matters.
• Fiscal policy and government interventions are necessary.
• Market development of ―peace economies‖ is crucial.
Greater number of postwar market analyses and surveys
Determining efficacy of market development strategies in
specific typologies of conflict and post -conflict scenarios, as
well as the impact of implementing several strategies at once
Economic recovery in conjunction with rule of law
reform, transitional justice
Inequality and conflict
FUTURE RESEARCH
Professor David Abernethy and Jeremy Weinstein
Professor Stephen Stedman (International Policy
Studies/CISAC), Gili Drori (Sociology), Jennifer Wolf (Human
Biology), Eric Morris (International Policy Studies), Ian
Robertson (Archaeology)
Professor Larry Diamond and Kathryn Stoner -Weiss (CDDRL
Honors Program)
Refugee Law Project (Moses Okello)
Samaritan’s Purse Uganda
Nic Cheeseman (Oxford Center on African Studies)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Organizations: Yumiko Takashima/UNHCR, UNICEF, UN -
OHCHR, IOM, Save the Children Uganda, UNDP, UN
OCHA, World Food Programme, WHO, UNDP, Uganda Bureau of
Statistics
Daniel Othieno, Office of the Prime Minister, Lira District
Funding: Chappell -Lougee, UAR Major Grant, Haas Center
Program on Philanthropy and Civil Society (PACS), CDDRL
Brian and Susan Davis, Chris and Jodi Blackham, Dale and
Marika Christy, Ben and Holly Porter
Michael Wilkerson, Jeff Love, Melina Platas
All of my friends (and Meyer Library) who helped me endure
until the end (CDDRL Honors Program, Bertram Ang, Jason
Brown, Sidney Le, Sabrina Pol, Adrian Bonifacio, etc.)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS