![Page 1: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop
Luis Jose Mata [email protected]
Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004
ZEFc IPCC
![Page 2: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Climate Change and Water Management
Overview
Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004
Avances cientificos y tecnologicos paraevitar medidas ingenuas
La ciencia no debe solamente generarconocimientos sino que tambien debe
influenciar la politica cientifica
![Page 3: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Descripción General de los tópicos de la presentación
1- A manera de introducción: balance hidrico—cantidad de agua almacenadaen el sistema climático.
2- Precipitaciones Intensas y sus Impactos
3- Inundaciones y Sequias (Extremos Hidrológicos) sometidos a uncambio del clima.
4- Persistencia (el efecto Hurst)
5- Adaptación y Mitigacion: Sector Agua
[Outline]
![Page 4: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
1- A manera de introducción—balance hidrico—cantidad de agua almacenadaen el sistema climático.
![Page 5: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Image: courtesy of NASA Jet PropulsionLaboratory
El agua tanto es su forma liquida como congelada cubre aproximadamenteun 75% de la superficie de la Tierra. Todos conocemos que es indispensable para el desarrollo y sustentode la vida.
90
90
0
Precipitation 2000
Nature
Distribucion es no homogenea
![Page 6: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
El ciclo de agua tiene dos partes: la atmosferica y la terrestre.
Y tiene que ser analisadas como un todo.
Promediando en el tiempo
t
W
+ divQ = PE
Con la exepcion de tormentas muy fuertes y para cortos periodos de tiempo
PEdivQt
W
Las dos partes conectadas
SRo divQ -
t
W
small
Promediando en el espacio (i.e., cuenca)
Source: Mata, WCCC2003
![Page 7: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Ocean
1350 x 1015 m3
Land
34 x 1015 m3
Atmosphere
0,013 x 10 15 m3
EEP P361x 1012 324 x 1012 m3/year 99 x 1012
62 x 1012
Ro 37 x 1012
Amounts of water stored in oceans, land, and atmosphere
Peixoto et al., 1973 (40)
(71)(111)(385)(424)
Baumgartner et al., 1975
![Page 8: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2- Precipitaciones Intensas y sus Impactos
![Page 9: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
3- Inundaciones y Sequias (Extremos Hidrológicos) sometidos a uncambio del clima.
![Page 10: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
El calentamiento global (T & E) induces cambio climaticos, los principales cambios son en la caracteristicas de eventos de precipitacion (intensidad y frecuencia).
La razon es la dependencia de la intensidad de la precipitacion en la disponibilidad de --atmospheric moisture—la cual cambia con la --water holding capacity de la atmosfera e incrementa no linealmente con la
temperatura.
No es solamente importante la cantidad de precipitacion. Tambien lo son la frecuencia y la intensidad y quizas deberiamosanadir la persistencia.
2622.0
TR
L
dT
de
d
s
Clapeyron-Clausius equation
![Page 11: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Global Warming
Q
Temperature and Evaporation
Water holding capacity
Atmospheric moisture
Greenhouse effect and Rain intensity
Heating
Floods
2002
![Page 12: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Heat waves in summer of 2003
Photos L.J.Mata
We should avoid the short memory syndrome in decision making process
adaptation
![Page 13: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
5- Adaptación y Mitigacion: Sector Agua
El articulo 2 de la UNFCCC
![Page 14: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
ecosystem food s. development
Water resources
What is dangerous climate change?
Article 2
![Page 15: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
2050
![Page 16: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
IPCC,2001
Risk
II. Relacion entre el incremento de la temperatura media global
Y la probabilidad de ocurrencia de eventos extremos
Small
![Page 17: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Planners and engineers normally use estimated, for example, the average time between events (return period).
Return period estimates normally are based on recent instrumental records. the assumption of stationarity is used —the statistic of past events are applicable to the future—but
climate change means that this often will not be the case .
Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug, 2004
Persistence
![Page 18: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Source: Munich Re (picture of the year 2003)
Water shortage in India 2003
Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug, 2004
Water wells & reservoirs dried up
Doubts about water scarcity??
![Page 19: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
2002
2004
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004 2003
Water –More Nutrition per Drop
![Page 20: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
4- Persistencia (el efecto Hurst)
![Page 21: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Q(t) Vmax
V(t)
Vmin
Qav(t)
Definicion (fisica) del rango como la diferencia entre el maximo y el minimoalmacenamiento V en un tiempo determinado.
El flujo de salida es constante e igual a flujo de entrada promedio
![Page 22: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
El rango re-escalado R S(t) es propocionat a TH, donde H es el llamadoexponente de Hurst
HTTRS )(
El exponente de Hurst (H) se ha convertido en una forma de medir la persistencia de una serie de tiempo (por ejemplo precipitaciones)
H > 0.5 persitencia
H< 0.5 no hay persistencia
![Page 23: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Yearly average rainfall
820
840
860
880
900
0 20 40 60 80 100Year
Rai
nfa
ll (
mm
)
Historical 1890-1989
A2 2000-2099
B2 2000-2099
Precipitacion annual (en mm) modelada por un GCM (el ECHAM4)
![Page 24: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
ECHAM4 Hurst Coefficient pdf
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Hurst Coefficient, H
Pro
bab
ilit
y D
enis
ty
Historical 1890-1985
SRES-B2 2000-2095
SRES-A2 2000-2095
Funcion de Densidad de Probabilidad (pdf) del exponente de Hurst
![Page 25: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
<0.390.460.520.590.660.720.790.860.92
SRES-B2 ECHAM4 2000-2085, Pacific Ocean
Green = 0.32 to 0.55Red = 0.56 to 0.92
Mapa del exponente de Hurst, sobre el Oceano Pacifico
Banda concaracteristicas deartipersistencia
![Page 26: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Oceans
H < 0.590
0.590 < H < 0.683
H > 0.683
Poor regression
Historical ECHAM4 1890-1985
Mapeo Global de Persistencia
H < 0.590 (low)0.590<H<0.683 (medium)H > 0.683 (high persistence)
Source: Mata & van de Giessen, 2004
![Page 27: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Oceans H < 0.5900.590 < H < 0.683 H > 0.683Poor regression
SRES-B2 ECHAM4 2000-2085
Mapeo Global de Persistencia
H < 0.590 (low)0.590<H<0.683 (medium)H > 0.683 (high persistence)
![Page 28: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Oceans H < 0.5900.590 < H < 0.683 H > 0.683Poor regression
SRES-A2 ECHAM4 2000-2085
Mapeo Global de Persistencia
H < 0.590 (low)0.590<H<0.683 (medium)H > 0.683 (high persistence)
![Page 29: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Complementarity between mitigation and adaptation
Adaptacion es una opcion global no local (??)
![Page 30: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Areas of complementarity between adaptation and mitigation for the watersector in the long term, where levels of mitigation determine the levels ofadaptation needed
Source: Mata & Budhooram, 2004
![Page 31: Second AIACC Latin America and Caribbean Regional Workshop Luis Jose Mata l.mata@uni-bonn.de Buenos Aires 24-27 Aug. 2004 ZEFc IPCC](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022061304/54ffa7864a79593d1f8b4707/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
AIACC Buenos Aires 2004
water
landAtmosperic pressure = 1.013 mbar
Average marine water temperature = 3.42
Gracias
FIN!!!
Temperatura de hoy = 12 C