Download - Sidr Like Cyclone in Bangladesh Coast
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Fatin Nihal
Mohiuddin Sakib
Wasif-E-Elahi
Dr. Anisul Haque
Dr. Munsur Rahman
Rifath Ara Rimi
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Model Domain
Bay of Bengal
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Grid
Grid Properties:
Maximum Orthogonality = 0.67
Maximum Grid Resolution = 1408 m
Minimum Grid Resolution = 222 m
M smoothness = 1.21(maximum)
N smoothness = 1.02 (maximum)
Maximum M size = 1164 m
Minimum M size = 263 m
Maximum N size = 1704 m
Minimum N size = 186 m
Maximum Aspect Ratio = 1.93
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Bathymetry
Figure : Bathymetry with polder in the study region
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Cyclone Track Source: Indian Meteorological
Department (IMD)
Cyclone Track Parameter:
1. Cyclone time and date (YYYY-MM-DD-HH)
2. Cyclone zone or region
3. Track Location ( Latitude –Longitude in degree)
4. Wind Speed ( in knots )
5. Pressure Drop ( hPa / mbar)
6. Radius of Maximum wind ( nm)
7. Eye diameter (nm)
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Brief Description on Delft Dashboard:
Upstream Boundary : Discharge Stations
Ganges: at Hardnge Bridge
Meghna: at Bhairab Bazar
Brahmaputra: at Bahadurabad
Downstream Boundary :
Water Level Station
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Model Calibration
Water Level data from our model is then compared with BIWTA measured data
Reliability of our each model run is calculated from the following equation
Reference: Haque, A., Salehin, M., Rahman, M., Sumaiya, Kabir, R., Alam, S., Rezaie, A.M., Ahmed, I., Ahmed, H., Kadir, N., Jisan, M.A., “Reliability analysis of dynamic models”, in writing for the Journal: Water, June 2014.
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Morphology Model Validation Location
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Morphology Model Validation Result
River
name
Station name Measured
erosion/deposition
rate (cm/month) (For a
long Period of data which is
more than 10 years)
Model
erosion/deposition rate
(cm/month) (Only for
the base year condition)
Reliability
%
Bishkhali
(CES)
BIS16 -0.0122 0.1912 49.26
BIS15 -0.1426 -0.1504
BIS14 -0.4637 -0.4430
BIS12 0.3157 0
BIS11 0.0083 -0.0837
Lower
Meghna
(EES)
ML2 -0.7832 0 41.80
ML5 0.2265 -0.0023
M12 -0.2471 -0.0010
Rupsa
(WES)
RP10 -0.9200 -0.2532 50.86
RP13 -0.6169 -0.3153
RP14 (n/a) -0.3492
Overall Model reliability over the estuarine systems 47.30
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Storm Surge Model Calibration and Validation
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Study Area Including SIDR Track and Model Validation Location
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Methodology of this Study
To compute future inundation for SIDR like Cyclone future coastal land elevations are generated from
morphology model for the year 2025,2050,2075 and 2100.
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Inundation Image
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Figure : Inundation area due to SIDR and SIDR-like cyclones
Inundation Area Comparison
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Polder Overtopped Image
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Conclusion
• Central coastal region of Bangladesh is more vulnerable against storm surge flooding due to net land subsidence in future.
• More polders are likely to be overtopped in future in this region due to the occurrence of SIDR like cyclone.
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