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CONTENTS
p2 7th Round of Cooling Measures The
Anvil to Smash the Camels Back?
p9 Singapore Property News This Week
p17 Resale Property Transactions
(December 26 December 31)
Welcome to the 86th edition
of the Singapore Property
Weekly.
Hope you like it!
Mr. Propwise
FROM THE
EDITOR
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7th Round of Cooling MeasuresThe Anvil to Smash the Camels Back?
By Mr. Propwise
As I had discussed previously, skyrocketing
residential and industrial property prices
dramatically increased the risk of additional
government measures to prevent a
destabilizing property bubble from forming.And this time, no punches were pulled. On 11
January 2013 the Ministry of Finance,
Ministry of National Development, Monetary
Authority of Singapore and Ministry of Trade
& Industry issued a joint press release to
announce a large slew of measures, aimingto break the back of the stubbornly bubbling
market.
http://www.propwise.sg/singapore-property-prices-reach-all-time-high-but/http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/http://www.propwise.sg/have-industrial-property-prices-spiraled-out-of-control/http://www.propwise.sg/singapore-property-prices-reach-all-time-high-but/http://www.propwise.sg/singapore-property-prices-reach-all-time-high-but/http://www.propwise.sg/singapore-property-prices-reach-all-time-high-but/ -
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Summary of the latest round of measures
One of the distinctive features of this round is
the sheer quantity of measures announced,
with a broad reach covering public housing,
private residential and industrial property, and
targeting the supply, demand, financing and
taxation of property.
While theres been tons of media coverage of
the measures, Ive not seen a succinct and
easy-to-read yet detailed summary of themeasures, so heres my attempt to capture
everythings that been announced.
Effective 12 January 2013:
Private Residential Property Measures
1. The Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD)
will be raised by 5% to 7% and will be
imposed on Permanent Residents (PRs)
purchasing their first and Singaporeans
purchasing their second residential property:
i. Singaporeans will pay 0%/7%/10% of ABSD
on the first/second/third property onwards
respectively
ii. PRs will pay 5%/10% ABSD on the
first/second property onwards respectively
iii. Foreigners and non-individuals
(companies) will pay 15% ABSD from the first
property onwards
2. The Loan-to-Valuation (LTV) on housing
loans will be reduced for non-individuals and
individuals with at least one mortgage:
i. For individuals obtaining their second
mortgage, the LTV is lowered to 50% or 30%
if the loan is longer than 30 years or extends
beyond 65 years of age of the borrower
ii. For individuals obtaining their third or
greater mortgage, the LTV is lowered to 40%
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or 20% if the loan is longer than 30 years or
extends beyond 65 years of age of the
borrower
iii. For non-individual borrowers, the LTV is
lowered to 20%
3. The minimum cash downpayment for
individuals applying for the second or
subsequent loan is raised from 10% to 25%
Public Housing Measures
1. The Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) will
be reduced to 30% for bank loans and 35%
for HDB loans
2. PRs who own HDB flats cannot sublet their
whole flat
3. PRs who buy a private property will have to
sell their HDB flat within 6 months even if they
have fulfilled the Minimum Occupation Period
(MOP)
Executive Condominium (EC) Measures
1. The maximum strata floor area will be
capped at 160 square meters
2. New dual-key ECs will only be sold tomulti-generational families
3. Government Land Sales (GLS) EC sites
can only be launched for sale 15 months from
the date of award or after completion of
foundation works, whichever is earlier
4. Private enclosed spaces and private roof
terraces will be counted as bonus GFA and
subject to extra charges
Industrial Property Measures
1. Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) will be imposed
on industrial properties and land sold within
three years from date of purchase:
15%/10%/5% for first, second and third year
respectively
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What is the government thinking?
You can sense a level of frustration in the
Government over the property market
despite multiple rounds of cooling measures
since September 2009 to moderate housing
price increases, property prices have
stubbornly climbed upward, albeit in a
generally decelerating speed, until the pickup
in the last few quarters. This seventh round of
measures represents their most serious
(desperate?) attempt to throw as many darts
as they can to burst any sector that looks
bubbly.
Ironically, theres little they can do to treat the
fundamental cause of the rise in property
prices sustained extraordinarily low interestrates, and the expectation that they will
remain low for the foreseeable future. As
Singapore has chosen to keep an open
capital market and manage its exchange rate
(in a dirty float system), it has to give up
control over its monetary policy (part of the
impossible trinity of Economics) in other
words, interest rates in Singapore are
dependent on global monetary conditions,and theres not much the Government can do
to control it.
So they can only put together a package of
administrative measures to discourage
property ownership for investment, keep
foreign buyers out with punitive taxes, cap
borrowing limits, and curb excesses in the
market especially in public housing (e.g. from
the uproar created over a $2 million 4,300
square feet publichousing penthouse).
Impact of this round of measures on theproperty market
In my opinion, the most potent measure in
this round is the implementation of ABSD for
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Singaporeans buying second homes (7% for
the second home and 10% for the third and
subsequent one) and for PRs buying their first
home (5% for the first home and 10% for the
second home and beyond). This will basically
kill investment demand for residential
property by Singaporeans and curb end user
demand by PRs.
As an investment vehicle, residential property
will make much less sense. With theimplementation of the measures, a
Singaporean looking at buying a second
home will have to pay close to 10% in stamp
duties! But given the low interest rate
environment and the negative real interest
rates if you leave your money in fixeddeposits, investment demand will likely flow to
other assets with good yields, such as
commercial property (e.g. retail shops and
office units) and high dividend equities such
as REITs.
For PRs and foreigners, the buy or rent
equation will shift markedly towards renting
and thus rental demand could strengthen.
This will partially ameliorate concerns over
who will be renting the large supply of
completed properties coming onto the market
in the next few years. For foreigners, the hike
in the ABSD to 15% will no longer make
buying Singapore property relatively moreattractive than Hong Kong, thus preventing
the further inflow of hot money.
Will property prices fall in 2013?
Overall, I believe that the marginal demand
for property will fall significantly, leading to a
drying up of liquidity in the market and a fall in
the number of property transactions this year.
Note that this does not mean that property
prices will fall.
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Rather, the bid-ask spread between what
property sellers want for their property and
what property buyers are willing to pay
(especially after imputing the increased taxes)
will widen, leading to fewer transactions being
closed. Unless you are specializing in rentals,
it could be a tough year to be a property
agent.
A significant fall in volumes due to the
severity of the seventh round of measurescould cause significant market disruptions.
The Government is aware of this, and have
hedged themselves by calling the current
round of measures temporary, giving them
the leeway to lift these measures if market
conditions deteriorate significantly.
For Singapore property prices to fall, I believe
well need to see some sort of external shock
(what I call a black swan, using Nassim
Talebs terminology) that will lead to an
increase in interest rates and/or
unemployment rates. The cause could be
anything from rising inflation rates, to a
recession, to an epidemic. Only then will see
forced sellers and blood on the street.
By Mr. Propwise, a Chartered FinancialAnalyst and resident expert at
PropertyMarketInsights.com, a site to help
property owners and investors make
profitable decisions in uncertain times.
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ResidentialGuidelines on private enclosed space to
be reviewed
Following recent reports of super-sized EC
units being sold to buyers not from the
sandwiched class the ECs are meant to cater
to, URA had been directed review guidelines
on private roof terraces and private enclosed
space on ground floors. These spaces which
are open to the sky are not considered part of
the GFA has no development charges to
encourage developers to build more private
or communal open spaces for residents to
enjoy. They are the reason why penthouses
units can be sold at much lower psf prices
than smaller typical units since the entire
space of the unit (including the open space) is
included in the pricing. The resulting high
price of the units may not be affordable for
the class ECs are targeting and buyers who
can afford these units may not even need the
subsidies. Furthermore, as more developers
sell off the open space, there will be less
communal space for all residents and buyers
of units with these open spaces may not
covered them up or enclose them in the
future.
(Source: Business Times)
Over 75% of Echelons units sold
390 units of the 99-year 508-unit private
condominium project next to Redhill MRT at
Alexandra View have been sold.
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Over 200 of these units were sold at its
preview at an average selling price of $1,700
psf. The price will increase by 2% and 4%
subsequently for future releases. 80% of the
buyers were Singaporeans, with theremaining being PRs and foreigners. The 43-
storey, twin-tower development houses one to
four-bedroom apartments and four
penthouses.
(Source: Business Times)
Freehold Hampton Court at Draycott sold
All 12 units in the four-storey Hampton Court
(located at the corner of Draycott Park and
Draycott Drive) were said to be sold to Swire
Properties at $155 million or $2,526 psf ppr
including a $22.3 million development charge,
breaking the previous record of $2,525 psf
ppr. The 33,425 sq ft freehold site has a 2.1
plot ratio and can be built up to 24 storeys. It
can potentially be redeveloped into a project
with 33 2,000 sq ft apartments.
(Source: Business Times)
Possible measures to hit various propertymarkets
Following recent reports of super-sized EC
units being sold to buyers not from the
sandwiched class the ECs are meant to cater
to, URA had been directed review guidelines
on private roof terraces and private enclosed
space on ground floors. This may lead to
additional development charges if private roof
terraces and enclosed spaces are included
under the GFA. There may also be additional
measures introduced in the resale flat market
especially since the increase in prices of
mass market homes can be attributed to the
high HDB resale prices. Upgraders may have
to sell their flats before purchasing private
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property, or have restrictions placed on them.
On the commercial end, there could also be
seller stamp duties to discourage investment
demand, and strengthen enforcement
against unauthorised use of industrial spaces
and an extension of guidelines regarding
strata division of certain sites sold under the
industrial GLS to private sites.
(Source: Business Times)
Freehold Villa Des Flores back on the
market for the third time
The 41-unit condominium (13 townhouses
and 28 apartments) at Whitley Road is back
on the market for the third time with an
unchanged asking price of $160-165 millionor $1,533-1,581 psf. The development sits on
a 104,370 sq ft which can be redeveloped
into two-storey mixed landed housing of
detached, semi-detached, terrace housing or
a combination, based on conventional
housing types or as a cluster housing
development. The tender closes on Jan 30 at
3pm.
(Source: Business Times)
Slew of cooling measures to hit property
markets (effective 12 Jan); both short and
long term
The temporary measures include an increase
in ABSD rates, lower LTV ratios and increase
in minimum downpayment while the
permanent measures include a maximum EC
unit size, restrictions on PRs subletting flats
and disallowing PRs to retain HDB flats after
buying private property.
The ABSD now applies to the second home
purchase of Singaporeans at a rate of 7%,
and the ABSD for their third and subsequent
home purchase has been increased
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to 10% from 3%. Similarly, PRs now have to
pay a 5% ABSD and the rates for the second
and subsequent purchase has increased from
3% to 10%. The ABSD for non-PR foreigner
and corporate purchases has also beenincreased from 10% to 15%. Buyers whose
options were granted before January 12 and
exercised them by Feb 1without any
extension of the option validity period can
apply for remission so that they only need pay
the old rates. The LTV ratios will also belowered by 10% and 20% for second housing
loans and third and subsequent housing
loans respectively for individuals with at least
one outstanding loan and companies. The
minimum cash downpayment for the second
or subsequent home mortgages has alsoincreased from 10% to 25%. The LTV limit for
non-individual borrowers was also lowered
from 40% to 20%.
ECs now have a maximum unit size of 160 sq
m (1,722 sq ft) and the formerly free private
enclosed spaces and private roof terraces will
now be included in the 10% bonus GFA for all
non-landed residential developments
including ECs and private condos, and besubject to development charges. The latter
will also be included under the maximum GFA
for strata commercial and industrial projects.
Eligibility for HDB loans has also been
tightened, in addition to stipulating that PRs
who purchase private housing must sell theirHDB flats within six months of the purchase
and that PR owners of HDB flats are not
allowed to sublet the entire flat.
(Source: Business Times)
New cooling measures to affect mainly
HDBs and Ecs
With the restriction on the maximum unit size
of ECs to 160 sq m (1,722 sq ft), there will
unlikely be record high prices of $2.05 million
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ECs in the future, with most costing under
$1.2 million, based on an average price of
$700 psf. In addition, the previously free
private roof terraces and private enclosed
spaces will now be considered under the 10%bonus GFA for all non-landed residential
developments including ECs, and hence
subject to development charges. Other new
measures affecting ECs include the restriction
of dual-key EC units to multi-generational
families and the stipulation that developerscan only launch the development for sale 15
months after the site is awarded or after the
completion of foundation works.
For HDBs, the Mortgage Servicing Ratios
(MSRs) for housing loans is lowered to 35%
and 30% of the borrowers income for loans
from HDB and financial institutions
respectively. PR owners of HDB flats are also
not allowed to sublet their entire flats if they
had not obtained their HDB approval before
January 12. PRs who purchase a private
property on Jaunary 12 or after must also sell
their HDB flats within six months of the
purchase. This will likely result in increase inresale HDB flats. In addition, from July 1,
there will be tighter terms in relation to HDB
loans and the use of CPF savings to
purchase flats with fewer than 60 years' lease
left.
(Source: Business Times)
Resale prices of private homes saw 6.6%
increase in Q4
The average resale price of private homes hit
$1,233 psf in Q4 2012, a 6.6% increase from
$1,157 psf in Q3, bringing the year-on-year
increase to 13.4% in 2012, compared to
10.4% in 2011. Specifically, resale prices rose
4.8%, 4.6% and 3.6% in the OCR, CCR and
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RCR respectively. Transaction volume,
however, fell by 5.5% in Q4 from Q3 and also
fell by 7% from 2011 to around 12,500 private
non-landed homes in 2012. Rents fell 1% to
$3.91 psf in Q4 from Q3, resulting in asmaller rental yield of 3.8% in Q4 compared
to 4.1% in Q3.
Growth in resale prices are expected to
increase by 5% at most in 2013, given the
increase in supply in the primary market,
which will also possibly lead to a fall in prices
and rents. Sales volumes are also likely to
fall, given the economic conditions and
possible new cooling measures.
Meanwhile, the median COV for HDB resale
flats increased by $4,000 to $34,000 in Q42012, resulting in a 1.1% increase of the
median price of HDB resale to $455,000 in
the same period. Median rents remained at
$2,400 per month.
(Source: Business Times)
Commercial
99-year leasehold Mohd Sultan
conservation shophouse for sale
The three-storey-plus attic shophouse at 15
Mohamed Sultan Road is asking for $15.5
million or $2,259 psf based on its 6,862 sq ft
GFA. The 2,606 sq ft site zoned for residentialuse with commercial on the first storey has a
3.8 plot ratio. This allows for potentially 3,000
sq ft more GFA at the back of the building,
bringing the height of the building to five
storeys. The site is located near the River
Valley Road, the Singapore River and theupcoming Fort Canning MRT Station. The
tender will close on Feb 20.
(Source: Business Times)
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Strata factories transactions made in 2012
mostly profitable
There were 1,136 secondary-market
transactions involving resales and subsales of
60-year strata factory units, of which only 618
had caveats of previous transactions that can
be found. 60% of these 618 units were last
transacted in 2010 or 2011, with another
5.8% last transacted in 2012. 99.7% of these
transactions were profitable, with only two
transactions involving units last bought in
2011 being a loss. The average profit made
was 47% or $262,636, with the 73 units last
bought in 2007 making an average of 85% or
$406,160, the units bought in 2009 gaining
64% or $366,208, the 177 units bought in
2011 gaining 27% or $166,795 and the 36
units bought and sold last year gaining 15%
or $86,797.
The total sales volume of both primary and
secondary market will likely be lesser than
2011s 5,183, with 4,392 caveats lodged and
4,700 predicted for the year of 2012. Prices
for 60-year upper storey factory andwarehouse units rose 3.3% to $451 psf in Q4
2012 from Q3, bringing the full-year price
increase to 13%, compared to the 26% in
2011. However, the rental market did better,
with 5,924 rental deals transacted in the first
11 months of 2012, compared to the 5,575deals in 2011. Monthly average rents for
upper-storey factory and warehouse units and
high-tech units hit $2 psf and $3 psf
respectively in Q4 2012. There is around 27
million sq ft GFA of upcoming industrial space
in 2013.
(Source: Business Times)
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SSD for industrial properties sold within 3
years introduced
To control the increasing prices of industrial
properties, a SSD of 15%, 10%, and 5% willbe imposed respectively on properties sold
within the first, second, and third year of
purchase with effect from Jan 12. There has
been diversion to the industrial property
market following the introduction of cooling
measures in the residential sector, which hadled to an increase in resale transactions of
multiple-user factory space within three years
of an earlier purchase to 15% and 18%
respectively in 2011 and the first 11 months of
2012 from a 10% average from 2006 to 2010.
(Source: Business Times)
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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Dec 26 Dec 31
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
1 THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY 861 2,080,000 2,415 99
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,744 4,300,000 2,466 99
5 DOVER PARKVIEW 936 1,180,000 1,260 99
5 THE INFINITI 1,238 1,268,000 1,024 FH
7 TEXTILE CENTRE 1,163 965,000 830 99
8 CITYLIGHTS 560 1,000,000 1,787 99
9 THE ORCHARD RESIDENCES 1,808 5 ,990,000 3,312 99
9 VIDA 527 1,260,000 2,389 FH
9 RIVERGATE 1,033 2,375,000 2,298 FH
9 SCOTTS 28 1,098 2,430,000 2,213 FH
9 ROBERTSON EDGE 474 955,000 2,016 999
9 ONE OXLEY RISE 732 1,450,000 1,981 FH
9 TRIBECA 1,905 3,600,000 1,890 FH
9 ASPEN HEIGHTS 1,324 2,100,000 1,586 999
9 WATERMARK ROBERTSON QUAY 1,830 2,680,000 1,465 FH
10 ARDMORE II 2,024 5,750,000 2,841 FH
10 G RANGE RESIDENCES 2,669 7,580,000 2,840 FH
10 DRAYCOTT EIGHT 2,895 7,180,000 2,480 99
10 CUSCADEN RESIDENCES 1,442 3,250,000 2,253 FH
10 GALLOP GREEN 3,272 6,478,560 1,980 FH10 QUINTERRA 1,389 1,850,000 1,332 99
10 GISBORNE LIGHT 1,249 1,580,000 1,265 FH
10 THE SIERRA 1,033 1,300,000 1,258 947
11 SKY@ELEVEN 1,851 3,000,000 1,620 FH
11 NINETEEN SHELFORD ROAD 980 1,360,000 1,388 FH
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
11 KHEAM HOCK GARDENS 1,356 1,850,000 1,364 FH
12 PRESTIGE HEIGHTS 581 980,000 1,686 FH
12 OLEANDER TOWERS 1,152 1,388,000 1,205 99
12 AVA TOWERS 1,227 1,355,000 1,104 FH
13 AVON PARK 1,281 1,770,000 1,382 FH
13 BLOSSOMS @ WOODLEIGH 1,410 1,780,000 1,262 FH
13 SENNETT ESTATE 829 1,000,000 1,207 FH
13 THE ACACIAS 1,216 1,438,000 1,182 FH
14 D'OASIA 538 827,000 1,537 FH
14 CASSIA VIEW 1,206 1,260,000 1,045 FH
14 CASA SARINA 1,270 1,250,000 984 FH
15 ONE AMBER 1,302 1,850,000 1,420 FH
15 THE MAKENA 1,152 1,575,000 1,367 FH
15 THE TREELINE 926 1,165,000 1,259 FH
15 TANJONG RIA CONDOMINIUM 1,378 1,650,000 1,198 99
15 SERAYA 9 797 925,000 1,161 FH
15 LAGUNA PARK 1,615 1,500,000 929 99
15 MALVERN SPRINGS 2,099 1,880,000 896 FH
16 COSTA DEL SOL 1,345 1,798,000 1,336 99
16 SUNHAVEN 1,259 1,330,000 1,056 FH16 BAYSHORE PARK 936 938,000 1,002 99
16 THE CLEARWATER 980 954,000 974 99
16 CASAFINA 1,302 1,200,000 921 99
17 DAHLIA PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,292 1,230,000 952 FH
17 CHANGI GARDEN 1,399 995,000 711 FH
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NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore LandAuthority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after apurchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
18 MODENA 1,561 1,500,000 961 99
18 OASIS @ ELIAS 1,302 1,240,000 952 99
18 MELVILLE PARK 936 790,000 844 99
19 SUNSHINE GROVE 1,076 1,155,000 1,073 FH
19 KOVANA 1,184 1,250,000 1,056 FH19 CHERRY GARDENS 1,066 1,060,000 995 99
19 CHILTERN PARK 1,475 1,350,000 915 99
19 THE QUARTZ 1,507 1,292,400 858 99
19 REGENTVILLE 1,076 880,000 818 99
20 FAR HORIZON GARDENS 3,907 2,100,000 537 99
21 SUMMERHILL 947 1,140,000 1,204 FH
21 ASTOR GREEN 1,066 1,210,000 1,135 99
21 SYMPHONY HEIGHTS 990 1,100,000 1,111 FH
21 CLEMENTI PARK 1,539 1,550,000 1,007 FH
23 THE JADE 1,087 1,168,000 1,074 99
23 HILLVIEW REGENCY 1,195 1,155,000 967 99
23 GUILIN VIEW 861 825,000 958 99
23 HILLVIEW RESIDENCE 1,259 1,200,000 953 999
23 GUILIN VIEW 1,259 1,080,000 858 99
23 THE WARREN 1,238 1,020,000 824 99
23 PALM GARDENS 1,216 933,000 767 99
28 SELETAR SPRINGS CONDOMINIUM 1,335 1 ,065,000 798 99
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