![Page 1: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Singularity is Not Near:Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
Bongwon Suh,
Gregorio Convertino, Ed H. Chi, Peter Pirolli
Augmented Social Cognition Area
Palo Alto Research Center
![Page 2: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Exponential Growth of Wikipedia
Number of Articles (Log Scale)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth
![Page 3: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Active Editors
![Page 4: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Growth of Monthly Edits
Monthly Edits
![Page 5: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Something happened in early 2007
Monthly Edits
![Page 6: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Slowing Growth in Global Activity
Monthly Active Editors
![Page 7: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
So What Happened?
No major incident reported– Wikipedia temporarily blocks the entire
nation of Qatar by mistake– Microsoft offers cash for Wikipedia edit– “Essjay” controversy
Characterizing the evolution of contribution patterns inside Wikipedia– Data-driven approach
http://www.flickr.com/photos/lightpaintbrush/3747649160/
![Page 8: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve
– Which model can explain the slowing growth?
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class
![Page 9: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Global Activity of Wikipedia
Edit Activity
Active Editor
![Page 10: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Earlier Exponential Growth Model
Number of Articles
Log Scale Linear Scale
![Page 11: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Earlier Exponential Growth Model
Edits beget edits– more number of previous edits, more number of new edits
€
N(t) = N0 ⋅ert
€
dN
dt= r ⋅N
Growth rate of population
Currentpopulation
Growth rate depends on current population Nr = growth rate of the population
![Page 12: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Logistic Growth Model
Ecological population growth model– r, growth rate of the population– K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)
€
dN
dt= r ⋅N ⋅(1−
N
K)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
K
![Page 13: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth
Number of New Articles
Follows a logistic growth curve
New Article
![Page 14: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
A Modified Logistic Model Carrying Capacity as a function of time.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
K(t)
![Page 15: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Struggle for Existence - Darwin
Biological system– Competition increases as
population hit the limits of the ecology
– Advantage go to members of the population that have competitive dominance over others
Analogy– Limited opportunities to make
novel contributions– Increased patterns of conflict
and dominance
![Page 16: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve
– Which model can explain the slowing growth?
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class
![Page 17: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve.
– Logistic growth is now a better explanation
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes– Patterns of conflict and dominance?
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class
![Page 18: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Defining Editor Classes
Highly skewed contribution pattern– Top 3% users contribute 50%+ edits– A lot of single-edit users
Five Editor Classes– Monthly edit count– No bot, vandalism included in the analysis– 1000+: editors who made more than 1000 edits in that month– 100-999– 10-99– 2-9– 1
![Page 19: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Activity By Editor ClassesMonthly Edits by Editor Class (in thousands)
![Page 20: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Monthly % of Edits by Editor Class
![Page 21: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Revert as a measure of resistance
Revert: Undoing one or more edits– The page being restored to a version that
existed sometime previously. – Often used to fight vandalism
Revert ratio as resistance metric– # of reverted edits / # of total edit– This analysis excludes vandalism to
model “resistance”
![Page 22: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Ratio of Reverted Contribution
Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits
![Page 23: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A take away: Growing Resistance
Two interpretations:– Overall increased resistance
from the Wikipedia community to changing content
– Disparity of treatment of edits» Occasional editors have been
reverted in a higher rate
Example of increased patterns of conflict and dominance
Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/efan78/3619921561/
![Page 24: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve.– Logistic growth is now a better explanation
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes– Patterns of conflict and dominance?
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class
![Page 25: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve.– Logistic growth is now a better explanation
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes– Yes. We see patterns of conflict and dominance
– Different editor classes experience differing resistances
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class
![Page 26: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve.– Logistic growth is now a better explanation
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes– Patterns of conflict and dominance
– Different editor classes experience differing resistances
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class– Are the population stable?
![Page 27: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Population AnalysisMonthly Active Editors * Log scale
![Page 28: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Population by Editor Class
![Page 29: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve.– Logistic growth is now a better explanation
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes– Patterns of conflict and dominance– Different editor classes experience differing resistances
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class– Are the population stable?
![Page 30: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia
1. Global Activity– No longer following an exponential growth curve.– Logistic growth is now a better explanation
2. Activity Patterns by Editor Classes– Patterns of conflict and dominance– Different editor classes experience differing resistances
3. Analysis of Population by Editor Class– Middle class a smaller portion of the pyramid
![Page 31: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
It depends…
So… Is It Bad?
http://alfalfamedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/content-is-king.jpghttp://www.collegesofdistinction.com/collegetemplates/images/2386/community.jpg
![Page 32: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
If what you care is sustainability of the community…
Community is King– Sustainability of a system– Member to leader– Shrinking middle class suggest less
resilience in a community– Connects with Population ecological
research [Gunderson & Holling 2001]
Illustration: http://www.thestar.com/article/540066
![Page 33: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Factors Affecting the Growth of Wikipedia
People-ware– Growing resistance to changing content– Coordination cost and bureaucracy
Knowledge-ware: Availability of easy topics to write about Tool-ware: Quality of tools used by editors and admins
http://www.aerostich.com/http://www.mikestreetmedia.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/knowledge.jpghttp://youropenbook.agitprop.co.uk/growing.php?p=2
![Page 34: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Thank you
Bongwon Suh [email protected]
Augmented Social Cognition Area
Palo Alto Research Center
Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits
![Page 35: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Ecological Growth Model
r, growth rate K, carrying capacity
€
dN
dt= rN(1−
N
K)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
Year
r dominateswhen N is small
K dominates when N K ⇒
€
(1−N
K) ≈1
€
(1−N
K) ≈ 0
![Page 37: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
r/K Selection Theory
r-Strategist– Growth or exploitation– Less-crowded niches / produce many offspring
K-Strategist– Conservation– Strong competitors in crowded niches / invest more heavily in
fewer offspring
Evolution cycle– Resilience of an ecological system– Gunderson & Holling 2001
![Page 38: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
User-Block and Vandalism
![Page 39: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Page-Protection and Vandalism
![Page 40: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Moore’s Law – Ray Kurzweil’s Extension
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change
![Page 41: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Exponential Growth of Computing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change
![Page 42: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The Singularity
“The Singularity is Near” by Ray Kurzweil (2005)
Year 2045– $1000 buys a computer a billion times more
powerful than the human brain.– A.I. surpass human beings as the smartest
and most capable life forms on the Earth.– An extremely disruptive, world-altering event
that forever changes the course of human history.
– There will be a movie!
![Page 43: Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5486eae8b4af9f8c0d8b531d/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Logistic Growth Model
Exponential growth model– Growth rate depends on the current N
Ecological population growth model– r, growth rate of the population– K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)
€
dN
dt= rN(1−
N
K)
€
dN
dt= r *N