Studije mira, FPN, 3. mart 2016.
Mapiranje
savremenihsukobaitroškovinaoružanja
NemanjaDžuverović
Oružani sukobi
Mir – sukob – nasilje Definicija oružanih sukoba
Vrste sukoba (po akterima, uzrocima i teritoriji) Novi ratovi
Trendovi u sukobima Broj sukoba po akterima
Sukobi po vrsti nekompatibilnosti Distribucija oružanih sukoba po regionima
Zone rata i mira Žrtve sukoba
Poginuli u oružanim sukobima Troškovi naoružanja Izdavanja za naoružanje
Porast troškova za naoružanje Izvoz i uvoz naoružanja
Oružani sukobi
Svet u 2011
Mir–nasilje–sukob
MIR� nega3van-pozi3van� trajni(samoodrživ)-privremeni� kazneni-velikodušniNASILJE� direktno(fizičkonasilje)� strukturalno(eksploatacija,represija,dominacija,siromaštvo)� kulturno(simboličkoopravdanjedirektnogistrukturalnognasilja)SUKOB� simetrični-asimetrični� latentni-manifestni� oniokojimasemože/nemožepregovara3
Definicije oružanih sukoba
Oružanisukobizmeđudvedržavekojiuključujeangažovanjevojnihsnaganaobestraneinajmanje1000poginulihkaoposledicavojnihaktivnosti.
(SingeriSmol1972)Oružanisukobkaoposledicanekompatibilnostikojasetičeteritorijeilivlasti,gdesuangažovanedvestranepričemujejednaodnjihobaveznodržavaigdejekrajnjiishodnajmanje25poginulihkaoposledicavojnihaktivnosti
(ValerstiniSolenberg2001)
Vrste sukoba (po akterima)
Tradicionalnapodela
I.MeđunarodnisukobiA.SukobiizmeđudržavaB.Ekstra-sistemskisukobi 1.kolonijalni 2.imperijalni
II.Civilniratovi(Sarkes2010)
Proširena(nova)2pologijaI.SukobiizmeđudržavaII.Ekstrasistemskisukobi
A.SukobsakolonijomB.Imperijalnisukob(državavsnedržavnien3tet)
III.SukobiunutardržavaA.Civilnisukobi 1.kontrolacentralnevlas3 2.nekomp.lokalnogkarakteraB.Regionalno-unutrašnjisukobiC.Inter(među)komunalni
IV.Nedržavnisukobi
A.Nanedržavnojteritoriji B.Izmeđudržavnihgranica
Vrste sukoba (po uzrocima)
I.Revolucionarno-ideološkisukobiA.kapitalizam-socijalizam(Nikaragva,Nepal)B.diktatura-demokra3ja(Libija)C.sekularska-islamskadržava(Iran,Avganistan)
II.Sukobiokoiden2tetailiteritorijeA.pristupcentralnojvlas3(Sirija,Mali)B.autonomija(Sudan,SriLanka,Pakistan)C.secesija(Nigerija,Indonezija)
III.FrakcionalnisukobiA.poli3čkamoć(Liberija,SijeraLeone)B.ekonomskiresursi(DRKongo) (Ramsbothametal.2011)
Vrste sukoba (prema teritoriji koju zahvataju) - 1
� Totalniratovi(čitavodruštvouratu;ratpro3včitavogdruštva)
� Prvisvetskirat(rathemičara)� 32državei20milionažrtava� novaoružja(tenkovi,podmornice…)� opštaregrutacija,kontrolanadmedijimainaukom� opšteuništavanjeprirodnihspomenika
� Drugisvetskirat(ratfizičara)� 60milionažrtava� strateškobombardovanjegradova(Drezden,Tokio,Roterdam…)� koncetracionilogori� nuklearnabomba,pobedačovekanadprirodom� upotrebanaukeuvojnesvrhe� propaganda
Vrste sukoba (prema teritoriji koju zahvataju) - 2 � Hladnirat
� sukobdvablokabezdirektnekonfrontacije,proxywars� stalnapripremazarat� trkaunaoružanju,naročitonuklearnom� strahodspoljnjegneprijatelja,blokovskiiden3tet� težnjazaglobalnimprimatom� psihološkeposlediceodnuklearnepretnje,strahodnestanka.
� Ograničeni/pravedniratovi� ograničenizadržavekojeneučestvuju(Korejskopoluostrvo)� vladajuodređenapravila(jusadbellumijusinbello)� savremenikontekst
� pravedanrazlog(samoodbrana)� odlukuoratudonosinadležnotelo(SB)� nasiljesekoris3kaoposlednjesredstvo� ratneproizvodivećezlo� responsibilitytoprotect-R2P
Novi ratovi - 1
� Postmodernirat� mašinezamenjujuvojnike� ubijanjesadistance,nemaborbeprsauprsa� većaubojitost,brzina,preciznost,oružja� Informacijakaoključnivojniresurs/stratosferapostaječetvr3front� manipulacijamedijama(CNN,Fox)
� Ratpro2vglobalnogterorizma� akterinisuvezanizadržavuiodređenuteritoriju� organizovanisuuglobalnumrežu� upotrebanajsavremenijegoružja� polaganjesopstvenihživota� ćelijespavači� intervencijeuAvganistanuiIraku� trajnirat?
Novi ratovi - 2
� Ratovitrećevrste-KaleviHolsO,MeriKaldor� novaciresursikaomo3v� nove,tribalne,ideologije� mobilizacijapomoćustraha,religijeikorupcije� decavojnici,plaćenici� podrškamafije,dijasporeiregionalnihsila� novaratnaekonomija� greedandgrievence
� Kapilarnirat-HansMagnusEncesberger� bezideologijeiliprograma� spontaniunutrašnjisukobibandi,nacistahuliganaisl.� praznaagresijabezpravila� životgubivrednost
Trendovi u sukobima
Broj konflikata po vrsti aktera, 1946-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
No.
of C
onfl
icts
Year
Armed Conflict by Type, 1946-2014 Extrastate Interstate Internationalised Intrastate
© UCDP 2015
Sukobi po vrsti nekomatibilnosti, 1946-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
No
. of
Con
flic
ts
Year
Armed Conflicts by Incompatibility, 1946-2014 Territory&Government Territory Government
© UCDP 2015
Broj oružanih sukoba po regionima, 1946-2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
No
. of
Co
nfl
icts
Year
Armed Conflict by Region, 1946-2014
Europe Americas Middle East Africa Asia
© UCDP 2015
Zone rata i mira
Bezbednosnezajednice� jakedržave� SevernaAmerika,ZapadnaEvropa
Zonemira
� stabilnedržave� Karipskaostrva,Okeanija,IstočnaEvropa
Zonene-rata
� nestabilnedržave� JugoistočnaiistočnaAzija,JužnaAmerika
Zonerata
� neuspeledržave � Afrika,bivšiSSSR,BliskiIstok,CentralnaAmerika,JužnaAzija,Balkan
(HolsO1996)
Žrtve sukoba
Poginuli u oružanim sukobima, 1946-2005
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Battle-deaths
Poginuli u oružanim sukobima, 1900-2005
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Battle-deaths
Bethany&Gleditsch
(Bethany&Gleditsch2005)
Kineskigrađanski 1946–1949 1,200,000Korejskirat 1950–1953 1,254,811Vijetnam 1955–1975 2,097,705Avganistan 1978–2002 562,995Iran–Irak 1980–1988 644,500
Troškovi naoružanja
Izdvavanja za naoružanje
Naoružanje u brojkama
� U2014.nijedošlodoznačajnijerpovećanjatroškova(padod2012)� Troškoviukupnoiznose1776milijardidolara,
� 2.3%svetskogBDP� 245dolarapoosobi
� PorastprodajezbogkrizeuUkrajiniiratauSiriji,aliizaustavljanjezbogpadacenenage� najvećiporastzabeleženuAfrici,IstočnojEvropiiBliskomIstoku
� USADzabeleženpadtroškovazanaoružanje� dos3gnutistorijskimaksimum?
Izdavanja za naoružanje po zemljama
2 sipri fact sheet
THE TOP 15 MILITARY SPENDERS IN 2013
There was only one change in the list of countries comprising the world’s top 15 military spenders in 2013, with Canada dropping out, to be replaced by Turkey (see table 1). There were also several changes in order. Most notably, Saudi Arabia climbed from seventh to fourth place, having increased its military spending by 14 per cent in 2013. Among the lar gest spenders, Saudi Arabia has by far the highest mili-tary burden—that is, military spending as a share of GDP. At 9.3 per cent, it is also the second highest (after Oman) for any country for which SIPRI has recent data. Along with Saudi Arabia’s rise, the United Kingdom has fallen out of the top 5 spend-ers, although revised figures for 2011 and 2012 show that the UK had already fallen to sixth place then, probably for the first time since World War II.
Military spending by the USA declined by 7.8 per cent in real terms in 2013, to $640 billion. A part of the fall ($20 billion of the $44 billion nominal fall) can be attributed to the reduction in outlays for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO)— that is, overseas military oper ations, chiefly in Afghanistan and Iraq.
China’s spending increased by 7.4 per cent in real terms. While China has been behaving more asser-tively in recent years in territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea, and with the Philippines and Viet Nam in the South China Sea, these height-ened tensions do not seem to have changed the trend in Chinese military spending, which represents a long-term policy of rising military spending in line with economic growth.
Russia’s spending increased by 4.8 per cent in real terms, and its military burden exceeded that of the USA for the first time since 2003. Russia’s spend-ing has risen as it continues to implement the State Armaments Plan for 2011–20, under which it plans to spend 20.7 trillion roubles ($705 billion) on new and upgraded armaments. The goal is to replace 70 per cent of equipment with ‘modern’ weapons by 2020.
While South Korea and Turkey also increased their spending, military spending fell in France, the
Table 1. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2013Spending figures are in US$, at current prices and exchange rates. Figures for changes are calculated from spending figures in constant (2012) prices.
Rank
CountrySpending, 2013 ($ b.)
Change, 2004–13 (%)
Spending as a share of GDP (%)a
2013 2012 2013 2004
1 1 USA 640 12 3.8 3.92 2 China [188] 170 [2.0] [2.1]3 3 Russia [87.8] 108 [4.1] [3.5]4 7 Saudi Arabia 67.0 118 9.3 8.15 4 France 61.2 -6.4 2.2 2.66 6 UK 57.9 -2.5 2.3 2.47 9 Germany 48.8 3.8 1.4 1.48 5 Japan 48.6 -0.2 1.0 1.09 8 India 47.4 45 2.5 2.8
10 12 South Korea 33.9 42 2.8 2.511 11 Italy 32.7 -26 1.6 2.012 10 Brazil 31.5 48 1.4 1.513 13 Australia 24.0 19 1.6 1.814 16 Turkey 19.1 13 2.3 2.815 15 UAEb [19.0] 85 4.7 4.7
Total top 15 1 408
World total 1 747 26 2.4 2.4
[ ] = SIPRI estimate.a The figures for military expenditure as a share of gross domestic product
(GDP) are based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, Oct. 2013.
b Data for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is for 2012, as figures for 2013 are not available.
N
ea
rly four-fif
ths of all military expenditure in 2013 was made by 15 states
USA, 37%
Others, 21%
UAE, 1.1%Turkey, 1.1%
Australia, 1.4%
Brazil, 1.8%
Italy, 1.9%
South Korea, 1.9%
India, 2.7%
Japan, 2.8%
Germany, 2.8%
UK, 3.3%France, 3.5%
Saudi Arabia, 3.8%
Russia, 5.0%China,11%
Just
2 s
tate
s m
ade
near
ly ha
lf of a
ll milita
ry expenditure
Figure 2. The share of world military expenditure of the 15 states with the highest expenditure in 2013
Promena u uzdvajanjima za naoružanje po regionima
military spending and armaments 15
and early 2000s, this trend has slowed in the past 5–10 years, in particular in Africa and the Middle East. Analysis of data availability according to diff erent country characteristics shows that civil liberties and levels of political freedom are strongly correlated with the availability of good quality military expenditure data, while state fragility is associated with a severe drop in data availability and quality. National income, however, is not a signifi cant factor in explaining data availability, once the other two factors have been controlled. •
t h e r e p ort i ng of m i lita ry e x pe n dit u r e data t o t h e u n
The United Nations Report on Military Expenditures remains an important source for offi cial data on military expenditure. However, the response rate of UN member states to the annual request to submit data decreased in 2014, reversing an increase in 2013. The overall response rate remains low at 25 per cent. The political sensitivity of military expenditure may be a primary reason for not reporting in some cases, but many states make their military budgets available online to the general public. Equally, the fact that many countries have responded at least once suggests that they have the capacity to report, but they may lack the resources or political commitment to respond consistently.
ch a nge s i n m i lita ry e x pe n dit u r e , by r e gion , 2 01 3 –14
Change in military expenditure (%)–8 –6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Middle East
Western and Central EuropeEastern Europe
Oceania
South East AsiaEast Asia
Central and South Asia
Latin AmericaNorth America
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Africa
–10
World
Porast troškova naoružanja (2001-2010)
Najveci uvoznici i izvoznici naoružanja
several of the top 10 suppliers of major arms, as recorded by SIPRI, have not reported to UNROCA every year and a number of the largest importers have been absent for all fi ve years.* Participation from some regions has been consistently low in recent years, particularly from Africa and the Middle East.
Arms transfers to confl ict zones and non-state actors
Arms supplies to countries involved in armed confl ict and to non-state forces became a key issue in 2014. Suppliers had to make decisions on transfers to Iraq and other states involved in the war against the Islamic State, including supplies to militias not fully under the control of the central Iraqi Government. The confl ict in Ukraine also led to discussions among Western countries on the issues surrounding the supply of arms to the Ukrainian Government.
military spending and armaments 17
t h e m a i n e x p ort e r s a n d i m p ort e r s of m a jor w e a p ons , 2 010 –14
Global Exporter share (%)1. USA 312. Russia 273. China 54. Germany 55. France 56. UK 47. Spain 38. Italy 39. Ukraine 310. Israel 2
Global Importer share (%)1. India 152. Saudi Arabia 53. China 54. UAE 45. Pakistan 46. Australia 47. Turkey 38. USA 39. South Korea 310. Singapore 3
The fi nancial value of states’ arms exports, 2013*
While SIPRI data on arms transfers does not represent their fi nancial value, many arms exporting states do publish fi gures on the fi nancial value of their arms exports. Based on such data, SIPRI estimates the total value of the global arms trade in 2013 to be at least $76 billion. However, the true fi gure is likely to be higher.
Arms production and military services, 2013*
The sales of arms and military services by the SIPRI Top 100—the world’s 100 largest arms-producing and military services companies (excluding China), ranked by their arms sales—totalled $402 billion in 2013. This is a decrease of 2 per cent in real terms compared to Top 100 revenues in 2012, continuing the decline that started in 2011, but at a slower rate. •
t h e 10 l a rge st a r m s -produci ng c om pa n i e s , 2 01 3
Arms sales Profi t Company ($ m.) ($ m.) 1 Lockheed Martin 35 490 2 981 2 Boeing 30 700 4 585 3 BAE Systems (UK) 26 820 275 4 Raytheon 21 950 2 013 5 Northrop Grumman 20 200 1 952 6 General Dynamics 18 660 2 357 7 EADS (trans-Europe) 15 740 1 959 8 United Technologies 11 900 5 721 9 Finmeccanica (Italy) 10 560 98 10 Thales (France) 10 370 761
Companies are US-based, unless indicated otherwise. Figures are US$. The profi t fi gures are from all company activities, including non-military sales.
* The latest year for which data is available.
Udvostruceni porast troškova (2004-2013) 6
sipri fact sheet
Honduras $$$
Swaziland $$
Cambodia $$
Ghana $$$
Armenia $$Georgia $$$
Afghanistan $$$$$$
Paraguay $$
Namibia $$
Belarus $$
Bahrain $$
Ecuador $$
Kazakhstan $$$
Viet Nam $$
Azerbaijan $$$$$
Argentina $$
Angola $$
Iraq $$$ Oman $$Algeria $$
China $$
Russia $$
Saudi Arabia $$
Figure 4. The countries that doubled military spending between 2004 and 2013 Notes: $$ indicates that the country’s military spending doubled (or more), $$$ that it tripled (or more), $$$$ that it quad rup led (or more) and $$$$$ that it quintupled (or more), all in real terms. indicates that the country is a significant oil producer in relation to the size of its economy. In most cases, indicates that the country experienced (state-based) war or minor armed conflict or non-state conflict during the period 2004–13, as defined by the UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia, <http://www.ucdp.uu.se/>. The exception is Armenia, where it refers to the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan over Ngorno-Karabakh.
Zbirgodinatokomkojihsudržaveaktivnoučestvovaleuoružanimsukobima1946-2005.* Human Security
Report Project
Literatura
Kaldor, Mary (2007). New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. 3rd ed., Cambridge, UK: Polity Press (parts 3 & 4).
Ramsbotham, Oliver, Woodhouse, Tom and Miall, Hugh (2011). Contemporary Conflict Resolution, 3rd ed., Cambridge: Polity Press (pp.63-93)
Sarkees, Meredith Reid and Wayman, Frank Whelon, 2010. Resort to War: A Data Guide To Inter-State, Extra-State, Intra-State, And Non-State Wars, 1816–2007. Washington DC: CQ Press (pp.39-75).
SIPRI (2012). SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarment and International Security. Stockhol: SIPRI
Lotta Themner & Peter Wallensteen (2012). Armed Conflicts, 1946–2011. Journal of Peace Research 49 (4), 565–575.
Wallensteen, Peter (2012). Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and Global System, 3rd ed., London: Sage Publications (pp.13-28, 85-239).
Williams, D. Paul, 2008. War in Paul D. Williams, ed., Security Studies. New York: Routledge (pp.151-171).
Grafikoni i mape preuzeti sa sajtova:
www.miniatlasofhumansecurity.info
www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/graphs/charts_and_graphs.htm
www.prio.no
www.mondediplo.com
www.sipri.org
www.prio.no/upload/970/Monitoring%20trends%20in%20global%20combat%20EJP.pdf
www.heritage.org/Research/InternationalOrganizations/bg2006.cfm