Softwood Timber Supply Outlook and Influences
Richard A. Harper, CF, RFForest Resource Analyst
USDA Forest Service, SRS, FIAKnoxville, TN [email protected]
Southern Forest Products Association
2004 Annual MeetingAsheville, North Carolina
September 26 - 28
Pulp & Paper Mills in the South
1953 51 Mills 1995 105 Mills470 tons/day 1,325 tons/day
R. Harper USDA Forest Service, FIA TPO data
2004 94 Mills1,310 tons/day
1950s – 20,000+/- Mills?
1960 – ???? Mills 12.6 Bill. BF
1970 – 4,528 Mills 16.0 Bill. BF
1980 – 3,674 Mills 19.4 Bill. BF
1990 – 2,838 Mills 24.0 Bill. BF
1999 – 2,289 Mills 26.5 Bill. BF
2001 – 2,189 Mills 25.8 Bill. BF
Historical look at Pulp & Paper and Sawmills
All Primary Saw and Veneer Mills in the South
U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Bill
ion
s o
f b
oar
d f
eet
- lu
mb
er
.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mill
ion
s o
f to
ns
- w
oo
d p
ulp
.
Softwood LumberHardwood LumberWood Pulp
U.S. wood pulp output peaked in the mid-90s, and since 1995 an unprecedented drop in wood pulp output has occurred.
Wood pulp production includes estimates of dissolving pulp and wood pulp for construction paper and boardSources: Howard, J. L. Research Paper FPL-RP-595 (and earlier reports); AF&PA Monthly Statistical Summary;
Pet
er J
. In
ce,
U.S
. F
ore
st,P
rod
uct
s L
abo
rato
ry,
Mad
iso
n,
WI
U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003
Forested Regions of the World
14%
23%
27%14%
17% 5%
R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
U.S. ≈ 6%
South 1.7%
Industrial Wood Output is projected to increase 50% between 1995 and 2040
J. Prestemon and R. Abt Journal of Forestry, Oct/Nov 2002
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
195241% of U.S.
6.3% of World
199758% of U.S.
15.8% of World
Today18% of World
While U.S. ≈ 25% of World
U.S. softwood timber
production grew
22% (1952 – 2001)
South softwood timber production
grew 125% (1952 – 2001)
South’s Percent of Industrial Wood Products(All Roundwood Production)
Forestland in the United States
USDA Forest Service, North Central Research StationForest Inventory and Analysis
Legend
Forest
Nonforest
Forestland OwnershipU.S. Forestland and Ownerships
U.S. Mill Capacity
Mill Capacity (MMBF/Year) Less than 10 (221mills)
10 – 50 (214 mills)
50 – 100 (135 mills)
100 – 200 (113 mills)
Greater than 200 (30 mills)
Softwood Mill Capacity in the United States
Data - H. Spelter, M. AldermanFPL-RP-608Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI
Map - Dale Gormanson North Central Research StationSt. Paul, MN
Forest Type Map
Forest Type
Hardwood
Softwood
Non Forest
Mill
ion
Cu
bic
Me
ters
H. Spelter, USDA FS, Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
North South West
1995 Capacity
2002 Capacity
Capacity Loss
14%9%
21%7.1%
13.5% 0.5%Net Capacity Change
U.S. Softwood Lumber Capacity Change by Region 1996-2002
U.S. Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland
Less than 500
501 - 2,000
2,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 8,000
8,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 20,000
Greater than 20,000
None
Board Feet/Acre of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland
Intensity of Softwood Sawlog Harvest – 2001
Less than 50
None
50 - 125125 - 250250 - 500Greater than 500
Board Feet/Acre of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
U.S. Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001
Less than 25-24 to 25 (no change)Greater than 25
Board Feet/Acre of Timberland
Change in Softwood Sawtimber Production Intensity – 1996 to 2001
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
U.S. Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001
NoneLess than 1000
Board Feet/Acre of Timberland
1001 - 20002001 - 30003001 - 5000Greater than 5000
Softwood Sawtimber Volume per Acre of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
South Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland
NoneLess than 50
50 - 100
100 - 200Greater than 200
Board Feet/Acre of Timberland
Intensity of Softwood Sawlog Harvest – 2001
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
South Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001
Change in Softwood Sawtimber Production Intensity – 1996 to 2001
Less than -24-24 to 25Greater than 25
Board Feet/Acre of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
South Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001
Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South
R. Harper USDA Forest Service, FIA data
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-28
D.B.H. (inches)
To
ns
(m
illio
n)
2002
1997
1987
1977
1953
Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South
Global Tree PlantationsGlobally, industrial forest plantations have expanded to over 200 million acres by the year 2000 (according to FAO*), with most expansion in Asia and Oceania.
(?) *The plantation acreage in Asia is questionable, but in any case there are now tens of millions of acres of industrial plantations worldwide.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mil
lio
ns
of
Acr
esSouth America
North America
Europe
Asia & Oceania
Africa
(?)
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest,Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
14%
23%
27%
14%
17%5%
South Tree Plantation and D.B.H Classes
Also, the shifts in pulpwood demand and timber harvest were accompanied by big increases in the area of managed timber plantations and intensity of management for Southern pine . . .
Since 1985, an estimated 32 million acres of pines were planted in the South
(Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry)
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA, Knoxville, TN
Volume by DBH Distribution of Planted SYP - South
-20406080
100120140
5.0-6.9
7.0-8.9
9.0-10.9
11.0-12.9
13.0-14.9
15.0-16.9
17.0-18.9
19.0-20.9
DBH
Mill
ion
To
ns
Stand Age 15-20
Stand Age 20-25
Stand Age 25-30
Stand Age 30-35
Stand Age 35-40
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIADB
Historical Planted Acres in the SouthSeedlings Planted in the South, 1945 – 1999 (Industry & Private)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Acr
es (m
illio
ns) Soil
Bank
ConservationReserveProgram
SFRA, Sept. 2002R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
Industry
NIPF
Historical Planted Acres by U.S Regions
Historical Planted Acres in the South
R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003
Figure 12-1. Tree planting in the United States by year and region, 1952–1996.
North South West
1952
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Mill
ion
ac
res
0.0
Projected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types - SouthProjected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types- South
27%
55%
67%
43%
25%
18%
J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Planted Natural Oak-pine Upland hardwood
Bottomland hardwood
To
ns
(th
ou
san
d)
27%
55%
67%
43%
25%
18%
199520202040
Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South
J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50+
Age Class (years)
To
ns
(th
ou
san
d)
199520202040
Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South
0
40
80
120
160
Bill
ion
cu
bic
fe
et
Softwood 89 101 111 121
1995 2010 2025 2040
SRTS Southern Softwood Private Timber Inventory, 1995–2040
Professor Bob Abt, NCSU; Fall 2001See http://courses.ncsu.edu/classes/for319001/sofac/sfs_fwc_timsupply.ppt
The Southern Regional Timber Supply model (SRTS) that was used in the recent Southern Forest Resource Assessment projected an increase in softwood timber inventory on private forestland in the South out to 2040.
Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
≈36% increase
Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species)
Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species)
-10
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30
40
50
60
70
80
Shift in Pine Plantation Growth Shift in U.S. Pulpwood Receipts
Mill
ion
gre
en
to
ns
In an article published in the January 2003 Forest Products Journal, Professor Siry (Univ. of GA) estimated that the average annual growth increment of Southern pine plantations will have increased by 69.2 million green tons per year, between 1987 and 2004 (at left).
Meanwhile, actual data on pulpwood receipts from the Forest Resources Association show that annual U.S. pulpwood receipts (all species, roundwood and residues) have declined by -6.74 million green tons between 1987 and 2001 . . .
Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood), Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1952
1962
1970
1986
1996
2010
2020
2030
2040
Bill
ion
cu
bic
fee
t
Fuelwood & Misc.OSBVeneer logsSawlogs
Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood), Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections
1989 RPA
Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2001 RPA
Population Density Impact on Forestry
0 -99100 - 199
200 - 399
400 - 799
> 800
# of People Per Square Mile
2000 Census
Population Density Map
At approximately 45 people/square mile, there is a 50:50 chance of practicing forestry.
At 150 people/square mile, forestry approaches zeroVirginia Study (D. Wear, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998).Compiled by R. Harper, J. McCollum USDA Forest Service, FIA
0 -99100 - 199
200 - 399
400 - 799
> 800
# of People Per Square Mile
2000 Census
Population Density Map
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
Forecast Change in Forestland 1992 - 2010
Forest change> 14% loss8 – 14% loss0 – 8% lossStable> 1% gain
Forecast Change in Forestland 1992 – 2010
D. Wear, et.al, SFRA, Sept. 2002
South-wide Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Price
1991(3rd Qtr.) to 2003(2nd Qtr.) $/ton
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Stumpage
Stumpage trend
Source: Timber Mart-South
Annual Increase 12.1%
Annual Decrease 2.7%
$/T
on
Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels and Lumber Production Shift
NFS Harvest
The downward shifts in pulpwood demand and U.S. timber harvest were accompanied by a huge decline in National Forest harvest levels since the 1980s . . .
Also, NFS timber inventory data were revised upward since the last timber assessment.
Source: Forest Service ‘Sold and Harvest’ Reports, through FY ‘02
Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
Lumber Production Shift 1986 to 1997
West ` 27%
South & 34%R. Haynes, USDA Forest Service, PNW-GTR-560
Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices
Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04
US
$ p
er M
BF
(l
um
ber
or
tim
ber
)
RL Composite Lumber SE Avg PST stumpage
Poly. (RL Composite Lumber) Poly. (SE Avg PST stumpage)
Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02
US
$ p
er M
BF
(l
um
ber
or
tim
ber
)
RL Composite Lumber SC Avg PST stumpage
Poly. (RL Composite Lumber) Poly. (SC Avg PST stumpage)
Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South
Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact???
R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003
J. Mills, X. Zhou, PNW-GTR-568, Jan. 2003
Figure 73–National forest softwood harvest in base, zero harvest, and doubled interior West harvest scenarios.
So
ftw
oo
d h
arve
st (
bill
ion
cu
bic
fee
t) 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Year
Zero national forest harvest
Base case
Doubled NF cut interior West
1989 RPA Projection(≈10.8 BBF*)
SW Stump $ ` ≈ 2%SW Lumber $ ` ≈ 2%SW Removal ` ≈ 1%
≈700 Million CF/YR (≈4 BBF*)
Adds ≈445 Million CF/YR (≈2.5 BBF*)
Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact???
(Healthy Forest Initiative)
* BBF = Billion Board Feet
Southern ForestsThe World’s Preeminent Producer
• The U.S. South is the single largest producer of industrial roundwood.
• The U.S. South produces approximately 25% of the world’s wood pulp, 18% of solid wood products.
• The South currently produces 58% of the total U.S. harvest.
• 60% of the total U.S. forest industry capital spending is dedicated to the South.
Summary
Summary • The forest resource situation is constantly changing, and change is one rationale for FIA/RPA assessments… • Big shifts recently: - Pulpwood Demand ` down
- National Forest Harvest ` down
- Pine Plantations (South) & up
• Result: Big build up in standing timber inventories (especially for NFS, Other Public, & NIPF)
• Issues for future timber assessments (2010 RPA?):- Globalization, consolidation, & fiber demand- Future development of plantations- Other big changes?Peter J. Ince
U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
Softwood resource looks abundantSince 1985, an estimated 32 million acres
of pines were planted in the South (Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry)
14%
23%
27%14%
17% 5%
Plantations of the World ≈ 220 million acres