South Australian Electricity ReportInsights for Demand Management
3 December 2018
2
DISCLAIMER
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© 2018 Australian Energy Market Operator Limited. The material in this presentation may be used
in accordance with the copyright permissions on AEMO’s website
Agenda
3
1. Introduction
2. Rooftop PV
3. Operational Maximum Demand
4. Operational Minimum Demand
5. Demand Profiles
6. Supply Profiles
7. Virtual Power Plants
8. Wholesale Demand Response
Introduction
4
Key Insights
5
• South Australian Electricity Report available at: https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/South-Australian-Advisory-Functions
• The dynamics of the power system in South Australia have changed significantly as ageing coal-fired generation assets have withdrawn; while wind, behind-the-meter rooftop photovoltaics (PV) generation, and battery storage have grown rapidly.
• The power system now needs to accommodate more dynamic and technologically diverse plant, including embedded resources that are geographically dispersed, to meet varying energy usage patterns that are vastly different to previous decades.
• The shape of operational demand is becoming increasingly peaky, and both demand and supply are exposed to the vagaries of weather, changing the nature and profile of supply scarcity risks.
Rooftop PVBehind the Meter Generation
6
Rooftop PV
South Australian rooftop PV installed capacity forecast
7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
2013–14
2014–15
2015–16
2016–17
2017–18
2018–19
2019–20
2020–21
2021–22
2022–23
2023–24
2024–25
2025–26
2026–27
2027–28
Ins
talle
d c
ap
ac
ity (
MW
)
Financial year
Neutral* Estimated actuals**
• Rooftop PV systems continue to be installed at a very high rate. An additional 155 megawatts (MW) was estimated to have been installed in 2017-18 across business and residential sectors, bringing total estimated residential and business PV combined capacity in South Australia to 930 MW.
• The business sector saw stronger relative growth by a considerable margin in the past year.
• More than 32% of South Australian dwellings now have rooftop PV systems installed, the second highest level of penetration in Australia.
• Rooftop PV installed capacity is forecast to reach 1,432 MW in 2027-28.
Rooftop PV
South Australian rooftop PV generation forecasts
8
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
2009–10
2010–11
2011–12
2012–13
2013–14
2014–15
2015–16
2016–17
2017–18
2018–19
2019–20
2020–21
2021–22
2022–23
2023–24
2024–25
2025–26
2026–27
2027–28
An
nu
al
ge
ne
rati
on
(G
Wh
)
Financial year
Actuals** 2017 Neutral 2018 Neutral*
• Rooftop PV contributed an estimated 1,162 gigawatt hours (GWh) in the 2017-18 year.
• It is forecast to increase to 2,050 GWh by 2027-28, representing approximately 15% of annual underlying consumption.
• Over the next 10 years, South Australia is projected to have the highest ratio of rooftop PV generation to operational consumption of all NEM regions.
Operational Maximum Demand
9
Summer and Winter Forecasts
Maximum Demand
Summer operational maximum demand actual and forecast for South Australia (neutral sensitivity)
10
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
2009–10
2010–11
2011–12
2012–13
2013–14
2014–15
2015–16
2016–17
2017–18
2018–19
2019–20
2020–21
2021–22
2022–23
2023–24
2024–25
2025–26
2026–27
2027–28
Su
mm
er
op
era
tio
na
l m
ax
imu
m d
em
an
d (
MW
)
Summer
10% POE (2018 Neutral) 50% POE (2018 Neutral) 90% POE (2018 Neutral)
10% POE (2017 Neutral) 50% POE (2017 Neutral) 90% POE (2017 Neutral)
Actuals
• Maximum operational demand will continue to be experienced in summer and is expected to be higher due to growth drivers for business load, as well as the expectation that maximum operational demand will peak too late in the day for additional rooftop PV to have a substantial impact offsetting growth in grid demand.
Maximum Demand
Winter operational maximum demand actual and forecast for South Australia (neutral sensitivity)
11
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Win
ter
op
era
tio
na
l m
ax
imu
m d
em
an
d (
MW
)
Winter
10% POE (2018 Neutral) 50% POE (2018 Neutral) 90% POE (2018 Neutral) Actuals*
10% POE (2017 Neutral) 50% POE (2017 Neutral) 90% POE (2017 Neutral)
• The 2016 calendar year winter peak was driven by very cold temperatures, while 2017 had much milder weather. Calibrating the model with the latest year of data shifted the forecast values down in 2018.
Operational Minimum Demand
12
Financial Year Forecasts
Minimum Demand
Minimum demand actual and forecasts for South Australia (neutral sensitivity)
13
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2009–10
2010
–11
2011
–12
2012
–13
2013
–14
2014
–15
2015
–16
2016
–17
2017
–18
2018
–19
2019
–20
2020–21
2021–
22
2022–23
2023–24
2024
–25
2025–26
2026–27
2027–28
Min
imu
m d
em
an
d (
MW
)
Financial year
Neutral POE 10 Neutral POE 50 Neutral POE 90 Actual
• AEMO forecasts negative minimum demand for the South Australian region under certain conditions by 2023-24.
• For 90% POE minimum demand days, continued uptake of rooftop PV is forecast to offset 100% of demand in South Australia during the middle of the day.
Demand Profiles
14
Summer and Winter Average Days
Demand Profiles
Summer workday average demand profiles
15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
So
uth
Au
str
alia
n s
um
me
r w
ork
da
y a
ve
rag
e d
em
an
d
(MW
)
Time of day (NEM time)
2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18
• Seasonal hot weather still plays a large role in shaping overall demand: In 2015-16, Adelaide experienced heatwaves and record-breaking daytime temperatures which led to a much higher average demand over the summer period than in the adjacent years.
Demand Profiles
Winter workday average demand profiles*
* Winter 2018 comprises only one month of data
16
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
00:0
0
01:0
0
02:0
0
03:0
0
04:0
0
05:0
0
06:0
0
07:0
0
08:0
0
09:0
0
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
So
uth
Au
str
alia
n w
ork
da
y a
ve
rag
e d
em
an
d (
MW
)
Time of day (NEM time)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
• In winter, a noticeable morning peak is followed by an evening peak, reflecting a combination of demand increases as the workday commences and ends.
• Reduced grid demand is observed in the daylight hours, due to the increased output of rooftop PV.
• Evening peaks can be attributed to continual demand from the grid, mainly for domestic heating.
Supply Profiles
17
Average Daily Profile
Supply Profiles
Average daily supply profile for South Australia:
Representing the supply (in MW) for each 30-minute trading interval of a day, averaged over the 2017-18 financial year.
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
12:3
0 A
M
1:3
0 A
M
2:3
0 A
M
3:3
0 A
M
4:3
0 A
M
5:3
0 A
M
6:3
0 A
M
7:3
0 A
M
8:3
0 A
M
9:3
0 A
M
10:3
0 A
M
11:3
0 A
M
12:3
0 P
M
1:3
0 P
M
2:3
0 P
M
3:3
0 P
M
4:3
0 P
M
5:3
0 P
M
6:3
0 P
M
7:3
0 P
M
8:3
0 P
M
9:3
0 P
M
10:3
0 P
M
11:3
0 P
M
Ele
ctr
icit
y s
po
t p
rice
($/M
Wh
)
Ave
rag
e d
ail
y p
rofi
le (
MW
)
Time of day
Total Wind Total Solar
Total Storage Thermal Generators (Coal/Gas/Diesel)
Interconnector Flow Rooftop PV
Total Demand Electricity Price
• Average wind output was slightly higher during the evening and early morning periods, complementing average rooftop PV generation, which produced most of its output between 8.00 am and 6.00 pm.
• Scheduled generation contributed the most to the daily profile, providing the requisite energy when necessitated by higher demand or when other generation sources were low.
• Interconnector imports mainly occurred in the off-peak periods when solar was not operational.
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs)
19
Virtual Power Plants
Incentives are expected to drive rapid uptake of VPPs in South Australia:
Up to 450 MW in next 3-4 years
20
VPP projects in South
Australia
State Systems / $ Total
capacit
y (Est.
MW)
Timing
Reposit “Grid
Credits/Impact” with
Powershop/Diamond
energy
ACT,VIC,
NSW, SA,
QLD
Confidential n/a Current
AGL VPP SA 1000 5 By early 2019
Simply Energy (Incl. Tesla,
Greensync)
SA 1200 5.2 By early 2019
Tesla (SA housing trust) SA 1000 to 50,000 5, up to
250
Total by 2022
SA Govt Storage Subsidy
Scheme
SA 40,000, $100m 200 By 2022
Aligns with AEMO’s proposed VPP Demonstrations framework
Wholesale Demand Response (WDR)
21
Wholesale Demand Response
• Proposals would introduce new Demand Response Service Provider market participant category
• DRSP may be scheduled resources in future
• More competition = better outcomes for consumers
AEMC assessing three rule change proposals
22
