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STATE-LEVEL INVESTMENTS IN EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION:
EVIDENCE OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM IMPACTS
Jade Marcus Jenkins
May 8, 2019
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State Early Childhood Policy
It’s a very exciting time:
●Explosion of research in early childhood
development and education
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Huge Impacts of ECE Demonstration Studies
Perry Preschool Abecedarian
Knudsen, Heckman, Cameron & Shonkoff, 2006
Intervention Group
Control Group
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State Early Childhood Policy
It’s a very exciting time:
●Explosion of research in early childhood
development and education
● Investments in early childhood education
○ Federal: $20.5 Billion; California: $4.7 Billion
●Expansions in age-4 state prekindergarten programs
….But it is also a mess
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Why so messy?
Mess #1: State ECE funding and governance is
complicated
• ECE dispersed across state agencies
• Different government agencies responsible for
different aspects of ECE policy (Kagan & Rigby, 2003; Waldfogel 2006;
Witte and Trowbridge 2005; Jenkins & Henry, 2016)
• Haphazard, idiosyncratic, incoherent (Pianta, Barnett, Burchinal,
Thornburg, 2009)
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California’s ECE system
Learning Policy Institute, 2017
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Every state does ECE differently
Bipartisan Policy Center, 2018
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State Early Childhood Systems
• Limited research on state ECE systems
• Disorganization hinders alignment and synergy of state policies
• Some dispersion across agencies OK for kids outcomes, but not too much (Jenkins & Henry, 2016)
Coordination possible if limited # of agencies involved
Single organization may be ”master of nothing”
• Call for stronger coordination and alignment at state and local levels
• ACF Preschool Development Grants; RttT-ELC
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Mess #2: Long-run impacts of scaled-up state pre-k not conclusive
Phillips et al., 2017
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Scaled-up
pre-k is not
Perry or
Abecedarian
Learning Policy Institute, 2017
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What types of long-run outcomes might we expect from state-level
ECE programs?
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THE RETURNS OF AN ADDITIONAL YEAR OF SCHOOLING:
THE CASE OF STATE MANDATED KINDERGARTEN
Jade Jenkins - UC Irvine
Maria Rosales – Rutgers University
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Motivation
●Expansions in age-4 state prekindergarten programso Voluntary part- or full-time educational programs
o Third-party delivery systems
• Public, Private for-profit, Private non-profit, CBOs
o Primarily means-tested (e.g., NJ, NC), some universal (e.g., GA, OK)
Short term evidence, ✔️; Long-term evidence, …
●Trend mirrors the origins of kindergarten programs○ Voluntary part- or full-time educational programs
• Moved from private to public school provision
●Some states evolved to compulsory kindergarten
attendance○ Others, 1st grade (age 6-7) compulsory schooling begins
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Our Study
● Several states began adopting compulsory KG during the 1970-90s ○ Between 1970-2000, 13 states adopted (e.g., AR, DE, VA, GA, OR, LA)
○ Shift in the minimum school entry age from age 6-7 (1st grade) to 5-6 (KG)
● Understand impacts of requiring an extra year of early education Insight into the returns from expansions in pre-k attendance
What are the effects of state mandatory kindergarten
requirements on long-run human capital and self-sufficiency
outcomes?
Do these effects vary across key subpopulations?
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Contributions
● At-scale, universal early childhood intervention vs. small, targeted, high-intensity intervention (e.g., Heckman et al. 2010; 2012)
● Examine heterogeneity with large, representative samples
● Departure from literature examining impacts of individual age-within-cohort at school entry on long-run outcomes (e.g.,
Angrist and Krueger, 1991; Bedard & Dhuey, 2012; Black et al., 2011)
● Complement studies that look at KG expansion grants for school districts (Cascio 2010; Dhuey, 2011)
● Similar to compulsory schooling literature, but extra year of schooling is during early life vs. adolescence (e.g., Devereux and Hart,
2010, Grenet, 2013, Harmon and Walker, 1995, Oreopoulos, 2006)
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Data
First Stage: Did KG attendance increase as a result of
the mandates?
●State-by-year kindergarten attendance mandates● Collect complete history of state mandates
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History of state mandates
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Data
First Stage: Did k attendance increase as a result of
the mandates?
●State-by-year kindergarten attendance mandates● Collect complete history of state mandates
●State-by-year kindergarten enrollment rates● Digest of Education Statistics
●State-by-year covariates● e.g., Population, State GDP, Poverty rate, Per-pupil educational expenditures, School entry cutoffs
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First Stage Results
Did KG attendance increase as a result of
the mandates?
Yes, by 8.5 percentage points
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Data
Second Stage: Did KG mandates affect long-run
individual-level outcomes?
Census/ACS (Public & Restricted Use)
ACS: 2007-2015: State-of-birth repeated cross section• Born 1965-1990, KG 1970-1995
• Ages 24-50 when observed in ACS as adults
Assignment to MKG exposure• State of birth & Quarter of birth (DOB in the RDC data)
Outcomes• Educational attainment
• Earnings
• Poverty status
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Second Stage Results: Public Use Data
Note: Cannot precisely assign individuals to K entry cohorts with QOB; need DOB from RDC.
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
High School Some College Assoc. or BA
degree
Poverty^ Wage
Income (ln)
Total
Income (ln)
Exposed to
MKG Policy0.003 0.006 0.014** -0.003 0.008 0.008
(0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.003) (0.012) (0.010)
Y mean 0.93 0.66 0.40 0.15 10.10 10.03
Observations 6,399,390 6,399,390 6,399,390 5,498,065 4,351,094 4,351,094
Did MKG affect long-run outcomes for affected
individuals?
Somewhat; increased degree attainment by 1.4 percentage points
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0.22
-0.6
4.75*
0.00
3.07*
12.10*
0.01
-0.45
12.01*
0.25
-1.73
-4.21*
-1.20
2.46*
19.39*
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Per
cen
tage
po
int^
dif
fere
nce
in o
utc
om
e fr
om
MK
G
College Degree Poverty
StatusTotal Income^
Notes: Estimates for White, Black, & Hispanic are interaction coefficients that capture the differential impact of MKG for the particular subgroup. * Statistically significant at .05 level. ^ Total income impacts shown as percentage increases.
High School
Degree Some College
Public Use Second Stage ResultsHeterogeneity by Race/Ethnicity
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-0.02
0.93*0.03
1.76*1.22*
0.25
-0.81+
0.65
-0.02
6.11*
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Pe
rce
nta
ge
po
int^
dif
fere
nce
in
ou
tco
me
fro
m M
KG
College Degree Poverty Status Total Income^
Notes: Estimates for White, Black, & Hispanic are interaction coefficients that capture the differential impact of MKG for the particular subgroup. *
Statistically significant at .05 level; + Statistically significant at .10 level. ^ Total income impacts shown as percentage increases.
High School
Degree
Some College
Public Use Second Stage ResultsHeterogeneity by Sex
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Robustness Checks
• State characteristics prior to adoption (i.e., pre-trends)
Similar in MKG and No-MKG states
• Migration across states between birth and KG
• We assume that children went to KG in their state of birth; potential mismatching
Moving between birth and age 5 not associated with MKG
• “Compliers” analysis
Hispanic families and HH with HS or less education more likely to enroll child as a result of the KG mandates
• Maternal labor market responses
No changes to employment status, some evidence worked more hours
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Next steps
• Analyses in RDC (Census 2000; ACS 2005-2015)
• Heterogeneous effects
o By poverty and SES status, and urbanicity of city/county of birth using
Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB) Tract Data
• Falsification tests
o Estimate MKG effects on individuals too old to be subjected to policy
change
• Event study analyses for pre-trends
• Collect more state covariates
o 1960s & 70s limited data available
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Summary and Conclusions
• Families responded to KG mandates• Hispanic families and those with HH lower educational attainment
• Suggestive positive main effects of MKG
• Long-run impacts most concentrated for Hispanic and Female adults
• States’ investments in universal early education pay off in the long run, and are equity enhancing
• Heterogeneity impacts similar to that of larger-scale interventions, e.g., Deming HS re-analysis, Dhuey K expansion grants
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Thank you!
Funding for this work generously provided by the Laura
and John Arnold Foundation through the UCI
Economic Self-Sufficiency Policy Research Institute
and by the Spencer Foundation
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Table 2: State covariates and Kindergarten enrollment for MKG and non-MKG states
Never mandatory KG Ever mandatory KG
Mean SD Obs Mean SD Obs Mean Diff
State covariates in 1970
Gross State Product per capita 0.01 0.01 1,147 0.01683 0.01 179 0.002
Unemployment Rate 6.38% 2.03 1,147 6.16% 2.36 179 -0.219
Poverty Rate 13.36 4.20 733 16.50 4.65 134 3.133
AFDC recipients/pop 0.03 0.02 1,147 0.03 0.02 179 0.002
Snap expenditures per capita 0.04 0.03 1,132 0.06 0.04 177 0.018**
K-12 Expenditures per pupil 7,100.39 2,231.37 1,147 6,636.01 1,948.61 179 -464.382
K-12 Pupil-teacher ratio 18.77 2.82 1,147 17.49 2.31 179 -1.282
% state White 86.19% 0.15 1,147 82.05% 0.13 179 -0.041*
%state Black 9.83% 0.12 1,147 14.65% 0.14 179 0.048
% state Other race 3.98% 0.10 1,147 3.31% 0.03 179 -0.007
% of state house that is Democrat 59.60% 0.20 1,110 71.36% 0.17 174 0.118
State-year observations 1970-
1995
Kindergarten enrollment ratio 0.82 0.20 1,136 0.86 0.17 179 0.034**
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First Stage Results
Data are from 1970-2000. K Enrollment rate = Statewide Kindergarten enrollment / State total #
children age 5
Kindergarten Enrollment Rate
(1) (2) (3)
State and
Year FE
State
Covariates 1+2
State has MKG policy 0.057 0.064** 0.085**
(0.058) (0.031) (0.037)
Observations 1,518 1,518 1,518
R-squared 0.497 0.182 0.618
Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered at the state level
Did k attendance increase as a result of the
mandates?
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Examining Balance and Pre-trends
*Total SNAP recipients by state not available before 1980
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
GSP per
capita
Unemployment
rate
% State AFDC
& TANF
recipients
SNAP
Benefits
per
capita*
K-12 exp.
per-pupil (ln)
% State
House
Democrat
State has
MKG Policy
0.001 -0.316 -0.001 0.005 -0.001 -0.020
(0.002) (0.436) (0.004) (0.005) (0.028) (0.035)
(7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Pupil-
teacher
ratio
% State White % State Black % State
Other race
Pre-MKG
adoption K
enroll rate
State has
MKG Policy
-0.503 -0.005 0.008 -0.002 0.020
(0.351) (0.009) (0.007) (0.003) (0.048)
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Maternal labor supply responses to MKG?• Current employment, hours per week, wages
• 𝐿𝑖𝑠𝑡 = 𝛼0 + 𝛽𝑀𝐾𝐺𝑠𝑡 + 𝑋𝑠𝑡𝛾 + 𝑆𝑠 + 𝑇𝑡 + 𝜀𝑠𝑡• i is a Mother of the 5 years old in survey year t.
• X=race, marital status, age and age sq, education (with our without).
• Mother going to school?
• Fertility?
(1) (2)
Employment Num. hours worked^
Exposed to
MKG Policy
0.010 1.528**
(0.034) (0.408)
N 38625 22067
Married Unmarried Married Unmarried
Exposed to
MKG Policy
0.014 0.021 0.831 1.603
(0.030) (0.044) (0.855) (1.059)
N 31981 6644 19315 2752
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Public Use Second Stage ResultsHeterogeneity
^ Income below 100% federal poverty level
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
High School Some
College
Assoc. or BA
degree
Poverty^ Wage
Income (ln)
Total
Income (ln)
Exposed to
MKG
Policy
0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01)
Black-0.06** -0.13** -0.17** 0.17** -0.33** -0.32**
(0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
Hispanic-0.09** -0.15** -0.15** 0.05** -0.17** -0.18**
(0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02)
MKG*Black-0.01 -0.01 0.03* -0.02 0.03+ 0.02*
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
MKG* Hispanic0.05** 0.12** 0.13** -0.04** 0.18** 0.18**
(0.01) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.04) (0.04)
Y mean 0.93 0.66 0.40 0.15 10.10 10.03
Observations 6422499 6422499 6422499 5520227 4351094 4351094
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Public Use Second Stage ResultsHeterogeneity
^ Income below 100% federal poverty level
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
High School Some
College
Assoc. or BA
degree
Poverty^ Wage
Income (ln)
Total
Income (ln)
Exposed to
MKG
Policy
-0.00 -0.00 0.01* -0.01+ -0.02 -0.02
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.02) (0.02)
Female0.03** 0.10** 0.09** 0.02** -0.34** -0.33**
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01)
MKG*Female0.01** 0.02** 0.00 0.01 0.06* 0.06*
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.03) (0.03)
Observations 6422499 6422499 6422499 5520227 4351094 4351094
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Understanding “compliers”
○ Households with 5 year-olds in 1977^-1995 CPS October supplement
○ Info from HH and 5 yo
𝐸𝑖𝑠𝑡 = 𝛼0 + 𝛽𝑀𝐾𝐺𝑠𝑡 + 𝑋𝑖𝛾 +𝑀𝐾𝐺𝑠𝑡 ∗𝑋𝑖Γ + 𝑆𝑠 + 𝑇𝑡 + 𝜀𝑠𝑡
○ Outcome: Enrollment in primary school
○ Predictors: MKG, HH and child covariates, MKG*covariates
○ State and year FE
^ State ID not available prior to 1977
K enrollment
MKG*Poverty & near poor -0.006
(0.012)
MKG*Male 0.007
(0.009)
MKG*Black -0.019
(0.018)
MKG*Hispanic 0.047+
(0.024)
MKG*Other 0.077
(0.056)
MKG*HH male 0.012
(0.019)
MKG*Married 0.001
(0.017)
MKG*Employed 0.013
(0.033)
MKG*Not in labor force 0.043
(0.027)
MKG*HH HS or less 0.027+
(0.016)
MKG*HH Some College 0.014
(0.014)
N 39212